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Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend and Forecast

⟳ Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing
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ammonium nitrate Price Trends by Country

brBrazil
usUnited States
bgBulgaria
ruRussia

Global ammonium nitrate Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

Price Watch™ provides real-time price assessments and price forecasts for Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) across top trading regions:

Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Regional Coverage Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Grade and Country Coverage Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Pricing Data Coverage Explanation
 

North America  Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Pricing Analysis

 

 

 

 Ammonium Nitrate FOB Prices at New Orleans Port, USA Weekly Price Update on Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Real-Time Export Prices from New Orleans Port, USA to Global Markets
Europe Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Pricing Analysis Ammonium Nitrate FOB Prices at St. Petersburg Port, Russia Weekly Price Update on Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Real-Time Export Prices from St. Petersburg Port, Russia to Global Markets

 
  Ammonium Nitrate FOB Prices at Varna Port, Bulgaria Weekly Price Update on Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Real-Time Export Prices from Varna Port, Bulgaria to Global Markets
South America
Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Pricing Analysis 		 Ammonium Nitrate CFR Prices at Santos Port, Brazil, Importing from Russia Weekly Price Update on Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) Real-Time Import Prices at Santos Port, Brazil from Russia

Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecasts & Market Foresight Q3 2026

Outlook: Strongly Bearish

Confidence: High

Ammonium Nitrate prices are expected to decline sharply across the global market during Q3 2026, pressured by ample product availability, subdued seasonal demand, and easing feedstock cost support. Europe is likely to witness the steepest correction amid comfortable inventories and weak industrial consumption, while Asia may face competitive export pricing. North America is expected to experience a milder decline, supported by balanced supply-demand fundamentals but restrained procurement activity.

Global Ammonium Nitrate Market Overview by Region (July–September 2026)

Country Grade/ Incoterm Outlook
Russia Ammonium Nitrate FOB St. Petersburg Strongly Bearish
Bulgaria Ammonium Nitrate FOB Varna Strongly Bearish
USA Ammonium Nitrate FOB New Orleans Strongly Bearish
Brazil Ammonium Nitrate CFR Santos (RUSSIA) Strongly Bearish

*Ammonium Nitrate Forecast represents an analytical assessment based on information available at the time of publication. Actual market prices may vary due to unforeseen operational, regulatory, geopolitical, or economic developments.

Explore the Complete Price Watch™ Ammonium Nitrate Forecast

Access comprehensive Ammonium Nitrate market intelligence, including a 3-Month Rolling Forecast, forward price curves, country-wise market outlooks, procurement insights, and monthly forecast updates.

Explore Price Watch™ Ammonium Nitrate Forecasts

What’s Included

The 3-Month Forecast (Updated Monthly)

It reflects changes in ammonia and nitric acid feedstock costs, energy prices, producer operating rates, plant outages, inventory levels, trade flows, freight rates, regional demand, and geopolitical developments affecting the global Ammonium Nitrate market.

Our Proprietary Hybrid Forecasting Model Evaluates:

  • Feedstock & production economics
  • Plant operating rates & outages
  • Inventory and supply-demand balance
  • Regional trade flows & freight
  • Import-export dynamics
  • Macroeconomic & geopolitical developments


Track Ammonium Nitrate Supply Disruptions in Real Time

As geopolitical risks continue to reshape global supply chains, stay ahead of the events that drive price movements by monitoring plant shutdowns, maintenance turnarounds, force majeure events, logistics bottlenecks, trade restrictions, and operational disruptions before they impact Ammonium Nitrate markets.

Access the Price Watch™ GIO Tracker

Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend Q2 2026

In Q2 2026, the Ammonium Nitrate market witnessed a significant price increase of approximately 45% compared to the previous quarter, supported by elevated production costs and firm agricultural demand. Feedstock costs increased substantially as nitric acid prices strengthened due to tightening upstream availability, raising manufacturing expenses across major producing regions.

Consumption remained robust because fertilizer demand increased ahead of the global spring planting season, while buyers actively secured inventories amid tightening supply conditions. On the supply side, production remained moderate as manufacturers faced higher feedstock and energy costs, limiting output growth despite stable operating rates.

Supply disruptions and elevated energy costs resulting from geopolitical tensions near the Strait of Hormuz further constrained raw material availability and disrupted global trade flows, tightening overall market fundamentals. The Ammonium Nitrate Price Chart reflected sustained upward momentum across key producing and consuming regions.

The Ammonium Nitrate Price Index remained supported by elevated production costs and resilient fertilizer consumption. Overall, the market experienced strong demand, constrained supply, and persistent feedstock cost pressures throughout the quarter.

Russia: Ammonium Nitrate Export prices FOB St. Petersburg, Russia

In Russia, the Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Q2 2026 witnessed a significant increase of approximately 45% compared to the previous quarter, supported by rising production costs and robust agricultural demand. Feedstock costs, particularly nitric acid, increased considerably due to firm upstream pricing, while higher global energy costs further elevated manufacturing expenses.

Demand remained strong ahead of the global spring planting season, supporting healthy fertilizer consumption throughout the quarter. On the supply side, production remained moderate as manufacturers managed higher feedstock and operating costs.

Supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions due to the US, Israel conflict with Iran in March 2026 affected global trade flows and tightened market availability despite stable domestic output. In June 2026, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Russia declined by approximately 18% due to reduced demand after peak summer season buying activity and reduced energy costs as compared to May. Overall, the market reflected strong demand and constrained supply dynamics during the quarter.

Bulgaria: Ammonium Nitrate Export prices FOB Varna, Bulgaria

In Bulgaria, the Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Q2 2026 witnessed a substantial increase of approximately 52% compared to the previous quarter, driven by higher feedstock costs and firm agricultural demand. Nitric acid prices increased significantly during the quarter, while elevated global energy costs raised overall production expenses.

Consumption remained strong ahead of the global spring planting season, supporting steady fertilizer demand across domestic and export markets. Production remained moderate as manufacturers adjusted operating rates in response to higher manufacturing costs and logistical challenges.

Supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions due to the US, Israel conflict with Iran in March 2026 affected raw material availability and regional trade flows, tightening market conditions. In June 2026, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Bulgaria declined by approximately 18% due to reduced demand after peak summer season buying activity and reduced energy costs as compared to May. Overall, the market reflected strong demand and constrained supply dynamics during the quarter.

USA: Ammonium Nitrate FOB New Orleans, USA

In the USA, the Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Q2 2026 witnessed a notable increase of approximately 32% compared to the previous quarter, supported by rising feedstock costs and healthy agricultural demand. Feedstock prices, particularly nitric acid, remained elevated, while higher global energy costs significantly increased manufacturing expenses.

Demand strengthened ahead of the global spring planting season, resulting in healthy fertilizer consumption throughout the quarter. Production remained moderate as manufacturers balanced higher input costs with stable operating rates. Supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions due to the US, Israel conflict with Iran in March 2026 affected global trade flows and raw material availability, keeping market supply relatively tight.

In June 2026, Ammonium Nitrate prices in the USA declined by approximately 12% due to reduced demand after peak summer season buying activity and reduced energy costs as compared to May. Overall, the market reflected strong demand and constrained supply dynamics during the quarter.

Brazil: Ammonium Nitrate Imported prices in CIF Santos, Brazil from Russia

In Brazil, the Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Q2 2026 witnessed a significant increase of approximately 45% compared to the previous quarter, supported by rising production costs and strong agricultural demand. Feedstock costs, particularly nitric acid, increased sharply due to firm upstream pricing, while elevated global energy costs increased manufacturing and import expenses.

Demand remained robust ahead of the global spring planting season, sustaining fertilizer consumption across the agricultural sector. As an import-dependent market, supply remained constrained by geopolitical tensions due to the US, Israel conflict with Iran in March 2026, which disrupted global trade flows and raw material availability.

Production remained stable while imports supplemented domestic demand. In June 2026, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Brazil declined by approximately 18% due to reduced demand after peak summer season buying activity and reduced energy costs as compared to May. Overall, the market reflected strong demand and constrained supply dynamics during the quarter.

Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2026

Ammonium Nitrate Trend Q1 2026

Ammonium Nitrate saw a price growth rate of 30% in the first quarter of 2026 owing to high cost and solid seasonal demand pressure. The price hike has been influenced by rising feedstock prices and ammonia prices which have driven production costs higher.

Supply uncertainty and disruptions in Middle East trade flow, combined with energy and fuel price growth along with logistics costs, contributed to the increased pressure in the global Ammonium Nitrate market.

In terms of demand, consumption grew at a stable rate with consistent agricultural demand on account of approaching spring planting season worldwide. Increased procurement is observed from key regions consuming this fertilizer chemical.

On the supply front, there is a moderate level of supply constraint due to production capacity changes. The Ammonium Nitrate price saw sharp gains in March 2026 because of intensifying US-Israel tension against Iran.

Russia: Ammonium Nitrate Export prices St. Petersburg, Russia

According to Price-Watch™, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Russia during Q1 2026 experienced an increment of about 30% as compared to the last quarter, due to high-cost pressures and robust demand fundamentals. High feedstock prices such as ammonia and nitric acid, as well as high ammonia prices, which raised the cost of production.

Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Russia stayed volatile and robust on account of the seasonal need for agricultural fertilizer due to the coming global spring planting season. The availability of supply is strained owing to global supply uncertainties in geopolitics, high energy, and fuel prices, and elevated logistics costs.

Manufacturing is moderately limited because manufacturers have reduced operating rates because of feedstock and trade uncertainties. The level of demand is healthy throughout all major sectors of use. In March 2026, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Russia there is a rise by about 37% because of the intensifying tensions between the US-Israel against Iran.

Bulgaria: Ammonium Nitrate Export prices Varna, Bulgaria

Ammonium Nitrate prices in Bulgaria for Q1 2026 increased by about 18%, influenced by high production costs and steady demand trends. The feedstock price rose significantly owing to increases in ammonia and nitric acid prices, with ammonia having significant effects on manufacturing prices.

Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Bulgaria stayed firm because of procurement before the spring season when there will be more planting activities. On the supply side, the uncertainties involved in the global market, the geopolitical situation, high energy and fuel costs, and logistical prices affected the supply of Ammonium Nitrate.

Manufacturing remained somewhat under control due to high costs and supply problems. Consumption levels improved both domestically and regionally. In March 2026, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Bulgaria go up by about 42% due to the escalating conflict between the US and Israel with Iran.

USA: Ammonium Nitrate FOB New Orleans, USA

The Ammonium Nitrate price in the USA in Q1 2026 witnessed an increase of approximately 10% compared to the previous quarter, supported by firm demand and rising cost pressures. Feedstock costs, particularly ammonia and nitric acid, increased significantly, with higher ammonia prices contributing to elevated production expenses.

The Ammonium Nitrate price trend in the USA remained stable to strong due to seasonal agricultural activities ahead of the spring planting season, supporting consistent consumption levels. Supply conditions tightened amid global supply uncertainty, geopolitical disruptions, rising energy and fuel costs, and higher logistics expenses.

Production levels are moderately adjusted as manufacturers respond to feedstock volatility and logistical challenges. Consumption remained steady across agricultural sectors. In March 2026, The Ammonium Nitrate in the USA increased by approximately 15% due to the escalating US-Israel conflict with Iran. Overall, the market reflected strong demand and constrained supply dynamics during the quarter.

Brazil: Ammonium Nitrate Imported prices in Santos, Brazil from Russia

The Ammonium Nitrate prices in Brazil in Q1 2026 witnessed an increase of approximately 32% compared to the previous quarter, supported by strong demand and significant cost escalation. Rising feedstock costs, particularly ammonia and nitric acid, alongside higher ammonia prices, increased overall production costs.

The Ammonium Nitrate prices in Brazil remained robust due to active procurement ahead of the planting season, supporting higher consumption levels. Supply conditions are constrained amid global supply uncertainty, geopolitical disruptions, rising energy and fuel costs, and higher logistics expenses.

Production levels are moderately impacted as suppliers adjust output in response to feedstock and supply challenges. Consumption remained strong across agricultural applications. In March 2026, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Brazil increased by approximately 37% due to the escalating US-Israel conflict with Iran. Overall, the market reflected strong demand and constrained supply dynamics during the quarter.

Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend Analysis 2025

Ammonium Nitrate Trend Q1 2025

According to Price-Watch™, in Q1 2025 the Ammonium Nitrate market on an FOB Varna basis, witnessed a firm upward trend, reflecting an 8% increase from the previous quarter. The improvement was supported by steady agricultural demand during early fertilizer application activities across regional markets.

Consumption levels strengthened as distributors and farming cooperatives resumed procurement ahead of the spring sowing season. Supply conditions remained moderately balanced, with producers maintaining stable operating rates to align production with seasonal requirements.

Inventory levels were controlled, preventing excessive stock accumulation while ensuring sufficient availability. Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices showed relative firmness, influenced by stable natural gas costs, which provided upstream support to finished product pricing.

Trading activity improved compared to the previous quarter, with consistent domestic offtake contributing to better market sentiment. Overall, balanced supply-demand dynamics supported the quarter’s positive pricing movement.

Ammonium Nitrate Trend Q2 2025

According to Price-Watch™, in Q2 2025 the Ammonium Nitrate market on an FOB Varna basis, remained largely stable. Market activity experienced balanced conditions as agricultural demand stayed steady following the completion of peak fertilizer application cycles.

Consumption levels were consistent but lacked aggressive bulk procurement, as distributors relied partly on existing inventories. Supply remained comfortable, supported by stable production rates and adequate warehouse availability.

Producers maintained disciplined operating levels to prevent oversupply while ensuring smooth distribution across key consumption regions. Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices were relatively stable during the quarter, influenced by moderate natural gas trends, providing limited cost volatility.

Trading sentiment remained neutral, with cautious procurement behavior observed among buyers. Overall, the market maintained equilibrium, characterized by steady consumption patterns and controlled supply fundamentals.

Ammonium Nitrate Trend Q3 2025

In Q3 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate price trend registered a strong 13% quarter-on-quarter increase, primarily driven by firm agricultural demand during the peak crop nutrition season. Consumption from the agriculture sector improved significantly as farmers accelerated fertilizer application for field crops, supporting higher offtake volumes.

Supply conditions remained moderately tight, with several producers operating at balanced to slightly elevated rates to meet seasonal requirements. Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid costs showed firmness during the quarter, influenced by steady natural gas prices, which provided upstream cost support to manufacturers.

Production levels were aligned with consumption trends, preventing excessive inventory accumulation while ensuring timely distribution across key farming regions. Export availability was limited in certain markets due to strong domestic demand, further tightening supply.

Overall, the agriculture-driven demand surge, supported by stable feedstock fundamentals and disciplined production management, sustained bullish market sentiment throughout the quarter.

Russia: Ammonium Nitrate Export prices St. Petersburg, Russia

In Russia, the Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Q3 2025 recorded a sharp upward trajectory, with average prices reflecting a significant 28% increase compared to the previous quarter. The surge was largely supported by strong agricultural demand during the peak fertilizer application season.

Consumption from the agriculture sector expanded notably as farmers increased nutrient usage for grains and oilseeds, driving higher domestic procurement volumes.

Supply conditions tightened amid elevated offtake, while producers maintained firm operating rates to balance production with seasonal consumption requirements. Inventory levels remained controlled, preventing excessive stock accumulation despite active distribution across key farming regions.

Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices stayed firm, supported by steady natural gas costs, which reinforced upstream cost pressure and strengthened market sentiment.

In September 2025, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Russia declined by 10% due to temporary demand slowdown and improved product availability. Overall, the quarter reflected strong agricultural fundamentals.

Bulgaria: Ammonium Nitrate Export prices Varna, Bulgaria

In Bulgaria, the Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Q3 2025 recorded a firm upward trend, reflecting a 13% increase compared to the previous quarter. The rise was primarily supported by steady agricultural demand during the active fertilizer application period.

Consumption from the agriculture sector improved as farmers increased nutrient intake for field crops, resulting in higher procurement volumes across domestic distribution channels.

Supply conditions remained moderately balanced, with producers maintaining stable operating rates to match seasonal consumption patterns. Production levels were carefully aligned with demand to avoid excess inventory buildup while ensuring adequate availability in key farming regions.

Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices remained relatively firm, supported by stable natural gas costs, which provided upstream cost strength to finished product pricing.

In September 2025, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Bulgaria declined by 8% due to temporary demand normalization and improved supply availability. Overall, the market reflected steady agricultural fundamentals.

USA: Ammonium Nitrate FOB New Orleans, USA

In USA, the Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Q3 2025 witnessed a slight downward trend reflecting a 4% decline compared to the previous quarter. The softening was mainly attributed to balanced agricultural demand and comfortable supply availability during the mid-application period.

Consumption from the agriculture sector remained steady but lacked aggressive bulk procurement, as farm cooperatives relied on previously secured inventories. Production levels were maintained at stable operating rates, ensuring adequate product flow across key farming regions without creating excess stock pressure.

Supply conditions remained sufficient, supported by consistent domestic output and efficient distribution networks. Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices showed relative stability, influenced by moderate natural gas trends, providing limited cost volatility during the quarter.

In September 2025, Ammonium Nitrate prices in the USA increased by 9% due to pre-harvest restocking activity and firmer feedstock support. Overall, the market maintained cautious equilibrium.

Brazil: Ammonium Nitrate Imported prices in Santos, Brazil from Russia

In Brazil, the Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Q3 2025 recorded a strong upward movement, with average prices reflecting a 27% increase compared to the previous quarter. The surge was primarily supported by robust agricultural demand during the key planting season for soybean and corn crops.

Consumption from the agriculture sector expanded significantly as distributors accelerated bulk procurement to meet nutrient requirements across major farming states. Supply conditions tightened amid heightened offtake, while domestic production operated at firm rates to align with rising seasonal consumption.

Import arrivals remained steady but were insufficient to fully ease market pressure, keeping inventories relatively controlled. Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices showed firmness, influenced by stable natural gas trends, which strengthened upstream cost support and reinforced bullish pricing sentiment.

In September 2025, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Brazil declined by 8% due to improved import availability and temporary demand normalization. Overall, agricultural fundamentals remained strong.

Ammonium Nitrate Trend Q4 2025

The Ammonium Nitrate Industry experienced a decrease of 9 percent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 when compared to the third quarter (Q3). The decline has been the result of weakness in agricultural purchasing due to completion of the peak fertilizer application cycle.

The agricultural sector has reduced consumer spending; food and farming products have been procured based on actual need rather than on speculation about future demand, resulting in less off-take from the key producing areas.

Supply conditions improved throughout the quarter as producers maintained steady operating rates; there has been adequate product available in the domestic market. The prices of both ammonia and nitric acid (FEEDSTOCK) have stabilized with slight declines, causing manufacturers to have less cost pressure and to be able to lower their price momentum.

Production levels have been steady but there has been sufficient inventory to limit upward price movement. Opportunities for exporting have been somewhat limited as global agricultural demand has been weak and buyers have been negotiating prices competitively.

Overall, there has been normalizing supply and demand in the agricultural sector, as well as softening feedstock support, resulting in downward price pressure during the quarter.

Russia: Ammonium Nitrate Export prices St. Petersburg, Russia

The Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Russia through Q4 2025 reflected a pronounced bearish movement, with prices declining sharply by 15% quarter-on-quarter as agricultural demand weakened considerably following the completion of peak fertilizer application activities.

Distributors and cooperatives shifted toward need-based procurement, limiting fresh bulk purchases through the quarter. Supply conditions remained comfortable, underpinned by steady production rates and sufficient domestic inventory availability.

Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid costs held stable-to-softer, aided by moderate natural gas prices, easing upstream cost pressure on producers.

In December 2025, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Russia recovered by 6%, driven by short-term restocking and improved year-end procurement demand, closing the quarter on a cautiously stable note.

Bulgaria: Ammonium Nitrate Export prices Varna, Bulgaria

As of Q4 2025, the trend of the prices of ammonium nitrate in Bulgaria indicate a substantial correction of 9% quarter on quarter and primarily due to a decline in the level of demand from agriculture after the conclusion of the main application season for fertilizers.

Distributors had sufficient inventories on hand and only procured new product, with few exceptions, where necessary; as a result, consumptive momentum has been limited. Supply remains comfortable with a combination of continued domestic production and available stock in warehouses.

The cost of feedstock ammonia and nitric acid remained stable or weak, primarily due to moderate prices for natural gas, which eased the cost pressure on producers from an upstream perspective.

Bulgarian prices for ammonium nitrate in December 2025 continued to remain stable due to a balanced supply and demand situation in the ammonium nitrate market, combined with limited spot activity that produced a generally soft but controlled market in December.

USA: Ammonium Nitrate FOB New Orleans, USA

The Ammonium Nitrate price trend in USA through Q4 2025 reflected a firm upward movement, with prices rising 4% quarter-on-quarter supported by steady agricultural demand during the winter fertilizer replenishment cycle.

Distributors restocked consistently ahead of early spring planting requirements, sustaining healthy consumption momentum. Domestic producers maintained disciplined operating rates, keeping inventory levels manageable while ensuring adequate availability across key farming states.

Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices held relatively firm, underpinned by stable natural gas costs and reinforcing upstream pricing strength. In December 2025, Ammonium Nitrate prices in USA firmed a further 1%, supported by year-end restocking and continued feedstock strength, closing the quarter with controlled optimism.

Brazil: Ammonium Nitrate Imported prices in Santos, Brazil from Russia

The Ammonium Nitrate price trend in Brazil through Q4 2025 reflected a notable correction, with prices declining 12% quarter-on-quarter as agricultural demand eased following the completion of major fertilizer application cycles.

Wholesalers and farm cooperatives limited purchases to essential volumes amid comfortable inventory positions, dampening consumption momentum considerably. Domestic producers maintained balanced operating rates, ensuring adequate product availability across core farming regions without excessive stock accumulation.

Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid costs softened marginally, influenced by moderate natural gas trends, reducing upstream cost pressure on finished pricing. In December 2025, Ammonium Nitrate prices in Brazil rebounded firmly by 7%, driven by pre-season restocking activity and improved procurement sentiment, closing the quarter on a cautiously stable note.

Ammonium Nitrate Trend Q1 2024

According to 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡™, in Q1 2024 the Ammonium Nitrate market on an FOB Bulgaria basis, recorded a marginal upward movement, reflecting a 1% increase from the previous quarter.

Market conditions remained relatively balanced, supported by moderate agricultural demand ahead of the spring planting season. Consumption levels improved gradually as distributors resumed procurement to prepare for fertilizer application activities.

Supply remained stable, with producers maintaining consistent operating rates to align production with anticipated seasonal demand. Inventory positions were manageable, preventing supply disruptions while ensuring adequate product flow across domestic markets.

Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices were relatively firm, influenced by stable natural gas costs, offering mild upstream support to finished product pricing. Trading activity showed slight improvement compared to late 2023. Overall, the quarter reflected steady demand recovery and controlled supply conditions.

Ammonium Nitrate Trend Q2 2024

According to 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡™, in Q2 2024 the Ammonium Nitrate market on an FOB Bulgaria basis, experienced a noticeable correction, reflecting an 8% decline from the previous quarter. The decline was primarily attributed to subdued agricultural demand after the completion of early-season fertilizer applications.

Consumption slowed as distributors relied on previously secured inventories and limited fresh procurement activity. Supply conditions remained comfortable, supported by consistent production rates and stable warehouse stocks.

Producers maintained disciplined operating levels to prevent oversupply while ensuring adequate availability in key farming regions. Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices remained stable to slightly softer during the quarter, influenced by moderate natural gas movements, which reduced cost pressure on manufacturers.

Trading sentiment stayed cautious, with limited export inquiries and competitive pricing strategies prevailing. Overall, the market reflected soft consumption trends and sufficient supply fundamentals.

Ammonium Nitrate Trend Q3 2024

According to 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡™, in Q3 2024 the Ammonium Nitrate market on an FOB Bulgaria basis, recorded a firm upward movement, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous quarter. The improvement was largely driven by strong agricultural demand during the active fertilizer application season.

Consumption expanded as farmers increased nutrient purchases for key crops, supporting higher offtake across domestic and regional markets. Supply conditions tightened moderately amid improved buying interest, while producers maintained steady operating rates to meet seasonal requirements.

Inventory levels were controlled, preventing excessive stock pressure despite elevated distribution volumes. Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices showed relative firmness, supported by stable natural gas costs, which provided upstream cost support to finished product pricing.

Trading activity improved compared to Q2, contributing to positive market sentiment. Overall, the quarter was characterized by healthy demand fundamentals and balanced production management.

Ammonium Nitrate Trend Q4 2024

According to 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡™, in Q4 2024 the Ammonium Nitrate market on an FOB Bulgaria basis, witnessed a slight downward trend, reflecting a 2% decline from the previous quarter. Market activity softened as agricultural demand moderated following the completion of peak fertilizer application cycles.

Consumption levels eased, with distributors adopting need-based procurement strategies amid comfortable inventory positions. Supply conditions remained adequate, supported by steady production rates and sufficient warehouse availability.

Producers maintained balanced operating levels to align output with slower seasonal demand and prevent stock accumulation. Feedstock ammonia and nitric acid prices were relatively stable to slightly weaker, influenced by moderate natural gas trends, limiting upstream cost pressure.

Trading sentiment remained cautious, with limited export momentum and competitive offers in the regional market. Overall, the quarter reflected balanced supply fundamentals and softer consumption patterns.

Technical Specifications of Ammonium Nitrate Price Trends

Product Description

Ammonium Nitrate (NH₄NO₃) is a highly efficient nitrogenous compound widely used in fertilizers and industrial applications. It is produced by neutralizing ammonia with nitric acid, resulting in a concentrated solution that is further processed into prills or granules.

This controlled manufacturing process ensures uniform particle size, high purity, and consistent nitrogen content, typically around 33–34%. Ammonium Nitrate offers excellent water solubility, enabling rapid nutrient availability for crops and improved growth performance.

It provides both ammonium and nitrate forms of nitrogen, supporting immediate and sustained plant uptake. In industrial grades, it serves as a key oxidizing component in blasting agents for mining and construction. With reliable stability, high nutrient efficiency, and versatile application, Ammonium Nitrate remains an essential nitrogen source globally.

Identifiers and Classification:

  • CAS No – 6484-52-2
  • HS Code – 31023000
  • Molecular Formula – NH4NO3
  • Molecular Weight[g/mol] – 80.044 g/mol

Ammonium Nitrate Synonyms:

Nitrate of ammonia

Nitric acid ammonium salt

Ammonium saltpeter

Ammonium Nitrate Global Trade and Shipment Terms

  • Quotation Terms (Product & Country Specific): 10,000 – 15,000 MT
  • Packaging Type (Product & Country Specific): 50 Kg Bag


Incoterms Referenced in Ammonium Nitrate Price Reporting

Shipping Term  Location  Definition 
FOB New Orleans  New Orleans, USA  Ammonium Nitrate Export price from USA. 
FOB Varna  Varna, Bulgaria  Ammonium Nitrate Export price from Bulgaria. 
FOB St. Petersburg  St. Petersburg, Russia  Ammonium Nitrate Export price from Russia. 
CIF Santos (RUSSIA)  Santos, Brazil  Ammonium Nitrate Import price in Brazil from Russia. 

*Quotation Terms refers to the quantity range specified for the Ammonium Nitrate being quoted or offered in a commercial transaction. 

**Packaging Type refers to standard packaging size commonly used for Ammonium Nitrate packing, ease of handling, transportation, and storage in industrial and commercial applications.

Ammonium Nitrate Manufacturers

Manufacturer 
Yara International 
CF Industries 
UralChem 
Nutrien 

Ammonium Nitrate Industrial Applications

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Ammonium Nitrate prices

  • Renewed Downturn (2023–2025): Weak demand, excess supply, high inventories, stable production, lower input costs, weak exports, seasonal slowdown, and cautious buying kept Ammonium Nitrate prices at lower end.
  • Russia-Ukraine War Impact (2022–2023): European producers faced sharply increased gas prices and reduced Russian supplies, pushing up manufacturing costs and export prices.
  • Post-COVID Recovery & Inflation (2021–2022): 2021–2022 saw the Ammonium Nitrate market stabilize and gradually recover as production normalized and logistics improved. Demand picked up again in agriculture and industrial chemicals, supporting moderate growth and price recovery in most regions.
  • COVID-19 Disruption (2020): The pandemic COVID‑19 disrupted Ammonium Nitrate supply through plant shutdowns, port delays, and transport bottlenecks in 2020. Demand softened in agriculture and industry that led to softening of the market.
  • Firm Reversal (Early 2018–2019): Reduced farm demand weakened Ammonium Nitrate buying capacity. Lower energy and feedstock costs helped producers cut prices to keep volumes.

These events underscore the Ammonium Nitrate market’s sensitivity to supply disruptions, industrial demand shifts, and geopolitical or policy interventions, highlighting the importance of monitoring both global supply and domestic consumption patterns.

Why Price Watch™?

Price Watch™ is your trusted resource for tracking global ammonium nitrate price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the ammonium nitrate market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, Price Watch™ keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, Price Watch™ provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With Price Watch™, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence ammonium nitrate prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with Price Watch’s™ reliable, accurate, and timely ammonium nitrate market data.

Track Price Watch's™ ammonium nitrate price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Ammonium Nitrate Market Price Trend published by Price Watch™ reflect prevailing spot market conditions, derived from independent research, verified trade inputs, and proprietary market intelligence as of the publication date. Prices are published on the specified Incoterm and represent indicative base market levels, exclusive of applicable taxes, VAT, duties, tariffs, and other statutory charges. Actual transaction values may vary depending on volume, credit terms, contractual structure, and other negotiated conditions. Market prices are inherently subject to volatility, liquidity dynamics, regulatory changes, and evolving trade activity. The information provided is for reference and benchmarking purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or guarantee of transactional outcomes. Users should exercise independent commercial judgment and assess their specific contractual, regulatory, tax, and application requirements before making business decisions. Price Watch™ assumes no liability for decisions taken based on this information.

Ammonium Nitrate is a widely used nitrogen fertilizer and industrial oxidizer, primarily applied in agriculture and mining. Its price directly impacts farming input costs and blasting operations. Price-Watch™ tracks Ammonium Nitrate prices to help businesses monitor cost movements and market trends.

Ammonium Nitrate prices vary by region, grade (fertilizer or industrial), and supply-demand conditions. Prices are typically quoted per metric ton and fluctuate based on feedstock and seasonal demand. Price-Watch™ provides up-to-date price assessments across key markets.

Prices are influenced by ammonia and nitric acid feedstock costs, natural gas trends, agricultural demand cycles, mining activity, trade flows, and plant operating rates. Seasonal fertilizer demand and regulatory policies also impact price direction.

Major consumers include agriculture (fertilizer application), mining and quarrying (ANFO production), construction blasting, and certain chemical industries. Agriculture accounts for a significant share of global consumption.

Ammonium Nitrate is produced by neutralizing ammonia with nitric acid in integrated chemical plants. Major production hubs include Europe, Russia, North America, China, and India.

Russia and certain European countries are major exporters, along with producers in North America and Asia. Export volumes depend on domestic demand, regulations, and pricing competitiveness. Price-Watch™ monitors global trade flows and supply availability.

Supply is generally balanced, but tightness may occur during peak fertilizer seasons or due to plant shutdowns and export restrictions. Price-Watch™ tracks supply-demand balances to identify shortages or oversupply risks.

Grades include fertilizer grade, industrial/explosive grade, and blends like Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN). Prices differ based on nitrogen content, coating, bulk density, and intended application.

Sharp demand rises, especially during planting seasons, can push prices upward, tighten spot availability, and extend delivery timelines. Price-Watch™ captures these shifts in real time.

Ammonia and nitric acid are primary feedstocks. Any increase in their prices, often linked to natural gas costs, raises production expenses and influences finished product pricing.

Regional variations arise from feedstock availability, natural gas costs, plant capacities, freight rates, import duties, and domestic agricultural demand levels.

Price outlook depends on natural gas trends, fertilizer demand cycles, mining activity, and capacity utilization rates. Price-Watch™ publishes forecasts covering short- and medium-term projections.

Yes. Forecasts support procurement planning, inventory control, contract negotiation, and budgeting decisions, especially for fertilizer distributors and mining companies.

Geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, trade sanctions, shipping disruptions, and environmental regulations can affect feedstock supply and export flows, causing price fluctuations.

Price-Watch™ collects data from producers, distributors, traders, and end-users to publish transparent price assessments, market insights, and forecasts, helping stakeholders stay ahead of market movements.

Access Real-Time Ammonium Nitrate Price Trends
Access Real-Time Ammonium Nitrate Price Trends