Base Oil Price Trend and Forecast

Price Watch™ provides real-time price assessments and price forecasts for Base Oil across top trading regions:

Note: In assessments structured as CIF [Importing Port] (Exporting Country), the country mentioned in brackets indicates the primary origin of supply (exporting country), while the named port refers to the destination port in the importing country. Other Incoterms (FOB, FD, EXW, etc.) should be interpreted in accordance with standard international trade definitions.

Base Oil Price Trend Q1 2026

During Q1 2026, base oil price trend across global markets presented a broadly mixed picture, with geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict emerging as the dominant pricing driver across most regions, particularly toward the latter part of the quarter.

Middle Eastern markets recorded firm quarterly gains as the conflict directly impacted regional crude oil supply chains, while European markets absorbed the compounding effect of pre-existing elevated energy costs alongside geopolitical disruptions.

South Korea and Singapore posted quarterly declines due to earlier ample availability, though both markets saw sharp reversals in March as conflict-driven crude oil cost pressures intensified.

India presented a contrasting picture across import and domestic segments, while the USA, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia recorded steady quarterly appreciation. The Base Oil price trend across all monitored regions reflected the progressive and accelerating influence of geopolitical supply chain stress throughout the quarter.

USA: Base Oil Group – II (220N) Export prices FOB New Orleans, USA

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in the USA rose by approximately 4%, as geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict disrupted crude oil supply chains and elevated feedstock costs underpinning domestic base oil production economics.

The base oil price trend in the USA reflected a market where rising upstream crude oil cost pressures gradually filtered through to export pricing amid steady downstream demand from lubricant manufacturing sectors. Base Oil prices remained supported throughout the quarter as buyers absorbed incremental cost increases under tightening supply conditions.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in the USA surged by around 18%, as intensifying geopolitical tensions drove sharp crude oil price escalation, transmitting forcefully into domestic base oil production costs and export pricing during the month.

South Korea: Base Oil Group – II (500N) Export prices FOB Daesan Port, South Korea

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in South Korea declined by approximately 2%, as earlier ample supply availability kept export pricing broadly suppressed during the initial part of the quarter despite emerging geopolitical cost pressures.

The base oil price trend in South Korea reflected a market where sufficient inventory levels absorbed the early impact of crude oil cost increases linked to the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict, limiting the transmission of upstream pressures into export pricing during the period. Base Oil prices remained under mild downward pressure as buyers leveraged favourable supply conditions to manage procurement costs.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in South Korea surged sharply by around 24%, as conflict-driven crude oil price hikes intensified and depleted earlier inventory buffers, driving a sharp upward price correction during the month.

Taiwan: Base Oil Group – II (500N) Export prices FOB Mailiao, Taiwan

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in Taiwan rose by approximately 2%, driven by the progressive impact of geopolitical uncertainties on crude oil supply chains, which elevated feedstock costs and supported gradual upward price movement during the quarter.

The base oil price trend in Taiwan reflected measured appreciation as producers adjusted export pricing in response to rising upstream cost pressures linked to the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict. Base Oil prices remained broadly stable with contained upward movement as domestic production capacity partially cushioned the full extent of crude oil cost escalation during the period.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in Taiwan surged by around 25%, as intensifying conflict-driven crude oil price shocks transmitted sharply into base oil production economics and export pricing during the month.

UAE: Base Oil Group – I (SN500) Export prices FOB Jebel Ali, UAE

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in the UAE rose by approximately 9%, as the UAE market was directly impacted by major geopolitical developments in the Middle East region stemming from the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict, which drove crude oil prices sharply higher and tightened feedstock availability for domestic base oil production.

The base oil price trend in the UAE reflected significant upstream cost escalation as the conflict introduced acute supply chain stress across regional petrochemical and refining operations. Base Oil prices remained firmly elevated throughout the quarter as producers adjusted pricing to reflect higher operational costs amid sustained regional demand.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in the UAE increased further by around 10%, as ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to underpin elevated crude oil prices and sustain upward pressure on base oil production economics during the month.

Saudi Arabia: Base Oil Group – II (110N) Export prices FOB Yanbu, Saudi Arabia

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in Saudi Arabia recorded a firm increase of approximately 10%, driven by major geopolitical developments in the Middle East as the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict directly impacted regional crude oil supply chains and elevated feedstock cost structures across domestic refining operations.

The base oil price trend in Saudi Arabia reflected the acute sensitivity of the regional market to conflict-driven crude oil price movements, with producers adjusting export pricing significantly in response to tightening supply chain conditions. Base Oil prices remained elevated throughout the quarter as the regional conflict sustained upward pressure on production economics.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in Saudi Arabia rose further by around 15%, as escalating geopolitical tensions drove additional crude oil price increases, intensifying feedstock cost pressures and pushing export pricing to notably higher levels during the month.

Singapore: Base Oil Group – II (500N) Export prices FOB Port of Singapore, Singapore

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in Singapore declined by approximately 3%, as earlier ample supply availability across the Asian market kept export pricing broadly subdued during the initial phase of the quarter, despite emerging geopolitical cost pressures linked to the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict.

The base oil price trend in Singapore reflected a market where sufficient regional inventory buffers initially absorbed the impact of rising crude oil costs, limiting meaningful upward price movement during the period. Base Oil prices remained under mild downward pressure as buyers maintained favorable procurement conditions throughout most of the quarter.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in Singapore surged by around 25%, as conflict-driven crude oil price hikes depleted earlier supply buffers and transmitted sharply into regional base oil export pricing during the month.

India: Base Oil Group – II (500N) Imported prices CIF Nhava Sheva from South Korea, India

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in India on a CIF Nhava Sheva basis rose by approximately 3%, reflecting the passthrough of South Korean FOB price movements into Indian import valuations, further amplified by elevated freight costs driven by geopolitical supply chain disruptions during the quarter.

The Base Oil price trend in India on the import front reflected tightening procurement economics as both origin-side costs and logistics expenses moved higher simultaneously amid prevailing geopolitical uncertainties. Base Oil prices remained supported by steady downstream demand from lubricant and industrial sectors throughout the quarter.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in India surged sharply by around 31%, as intensifying conflict-driven crude oil price escalation combined with sustained freight cost pressures drove import valuations to significantly elevated levels during the month.

Indonesia: Base Oil Group – II (150N) Imported prices CIF Jakarta from South Korea, Indonesia

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in Indonesia rose by approximately 7%, tracking the upward FOB trend from the primary South Korean supply origin as geopolitical uncertainties began elevating feedstock costs and tightening regional base oil availability during the quarter.

The Base Oil price trend in Indonesia reflected a measured passthrough of origin-side cost increases into import valuations under CIF Jakarta terms, with downstream demand from lubricant manufacturing sectors remaining steady throughout the period.

Base Oil prices remained firm as buyers absorbed incremental procurement cost increases driven by firming South Korean export pricing. In March 2026, Base Oil price in Indonesia surged by around 29%, as sharply rising South Korean FOB prices driven by conflict-driven crude oil cost escalation transmitted forcefully into Indonesian import valuations during the month.

Netherlands: Base Oil Group – I (SN150) Domestically Traded FD Rotterdam, Netherlands

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in the Netherlands rose by approximately 4%, reflecting the compounding effect of already elevated European energy prices further aggravated by geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict, which pushed crude oil prices higher and intensified upstream feedstock cost pressures across the regional refining sector.

The Base Oil price trend in the Netherlands was shaped by a market that had been navigating persistently high energy costs prior to the onset of conflict-driven disruptions, leaving producers with limited capacity to absorb additional input cost shocks. Base Oil prices remained elevated as downstream buyers in lubricant and industrial sectors absorbed rising procurement costs throughout the quarter.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in the Netherlands rose by around 12%, as sustained geopolitical tensions continued to elevate crude oil prices and compress refining margins across the European base oil production complex during the month.

Germany: Base Oil Group – I (SN150) Domestically Traded FD Hamburg, Germany

In Q1 2026, Base Oil price in Germany rose by approximately 3%, as the market absorbed the dual burden of pre-existing elevated energy costs and the additional crude oil price escalation stemming from geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict.

The Base Oil price trend in Germany reflected a market already under stress from high electricity and natural gas prices, where the onset of conflict-driven supply disruptions further pressured production economics across the domestic refining and base oil manufacturing sector. Base Oil prices remained elevated throughout the quarter as downstream buyers faced compounding procurement cost pressures amid constrained regional production capacity.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in Germany rose by around 12%, as sustained energy cost pressures compounded by geopolitical crude oil price escalation continued to drive domestic base oil pricing higher during the month.

India: Base Oil Group – I (SN500) Domestically Traded Ex-Kandla (Bulk), India

According to Price-Watch™, in Q1 2026, Base Oil price in India on an Ex-Kandla domestic basis declined by approximately 8%, as earlier ample domestic availability kept ex-works pricing under sustained downward pressure throughout the quarter, limiting upward price movement despite emerging geopolitical cost pressures.

The Base Oil price trend in India at the domestic level reflected a market where sufficient inventory buffers inherited from the preceding period absorbed the initial impact of rising crude oil costs, constraining meaningful price appreciation during the quarter. Base Oil prices remained subdued as domestic buyers maintained favorable procurement conditions amid ample local availability.

In March 2026, Base Oil price in India on an Ex-Kandla basis declined further by around 3%, as residual domestic supply overhang continued to weigh on ex-works pricing despite the broader geopolitical cost pressures intensifying across global markets during the month.