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Biodiesel Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 15101801
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âźł Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing

biodiesel Price Trends by Country

krSouth Korea
usUnited States
cnChina
brBrazil
nlNetherlands
gbUnited Kingdom

Global biodiesel Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

Biodiesel prices in Q2 2025 showed relative stability, easing by 12% quarter-on-quarter as the market settled after earlier volatility. Biodiesel prices declined after months of consistent rise in Q2 2025. Biodiesel prices moved within a narrow USD 950–990/MT band, supported by steady Brazilian export demand yet constrained by competitive palm-based biodiesel shipments from Southeast Asia.

Feedstock soybean oil prices remained elevated, adding cost pressure for producers, while seasonal European renewable fuel demand lent some mid-quarter support. However, global biodiesel supply remained ample, capping further upside momentum.

The quarter reflected cautious optimism for H2 demand recovery, with traders balancing higher input costs against stable but competitive market conditions. According to PriceWatch, Biodiesel B100 (SME) closed Q2 2025 at USD 969/MT FOB Santos. 

Biodiesel Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

Biodiesel prices in Q2 2025 showed relative stability, easing by 12% quarter-on-quarter as the market settled after earlier volatility. Biodiesel prices declined after months of consistent rise in Q2 2025. Biodiesel prices moved within a narrow USD 950–990/MT band, supported by steady Brazilian export demand yet constrained by competitive palm-based biodiesel shipments from Southeast Asia.

Feedstock soybean oil prices remained elevated, adding cost pressure for producers, while seasonal European renewable fuel demand lent some mid-quarter support. However, global biodiesel supply remained ample, capping further upside momentum. The quarter reflected cautious optimism for H2 demand recovery, with traders balancing higher input costs against stable but competitive market conditions. According to PriceWatch, Biodiesel B100 (SME) closed Q2 2025 at USD 969/MT FOB Santos. 

In Q1 2025, biodiesel B100 (SME) prices corrected by 5.2% quarter-on-quarter as Brazilian post-harvest production improved soybean oil availability. The market softened with slower European winter blending demand, creating downward pressure early in the quarter. Prices briefly reached a floor in late January as blenders reduced purchases, before short-covering activity and renewed soybean oil cost strength triggered a modest rebound into March.

The period highlighted increased competition between South American SME and U.S. renewable diesel feedstock exports in Atlantic Basin markets, while demonstrating the close link between biodiesel and soybean oil pricing dynamics. Biodiesel B100 (SME) concluded Q1 2025 at USD 1,125/MT FOB Santos. 

Biodiesel Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

Biodiesel B100 (SME) experienced a sharp rally in Q4 2024, gaining 18.3% as soybean oil supply tightened during Brazil’s planting season. Pre-compliance buying to meet 2025 EU renewable energy targets significantly boosted demand, driving prices to multi-month highs. November saw peak levels before profit-taking emerged in December, revealing the market’s sensitivity to policy-driven demand spikes.

The quarter also emphasized biodiesel’s growing strategic role in global low-carbon fuel mandates, particularly within the EU’s renewable energy framework. Despite late-quarter corrections, the period reflected strong fundamentals and robust buying interest. Biodiesel B100 (SME) ended Q4 2024 at USD 1,072/MT FOB Santos. 

Q3 2024 saw biodiesel B100 (SME) prices rise 6.3% quarter-on-quarter as Northern Hemisphere driving season demand lifted blending volumes. Prices advanced steadily, supported by firm soybean oil costs and robust Brazilian export flows. The quarter broke the USD 950/MT threshold in September for the first time in 2024, signalling improved confidence in biodiesel margins.

However, abundant global biodiesel inventories limited further upside, with demand growth remaining gradual. SME producers benefited from better pricing spreads, while trade flows stayed active between South America and Europe. Biodiesel B100 (SME) closed Q3 2024 at USD 932/MT FOB Santos. 

In Q2 2024, biodiesel B100 (SME) prices softened 3.7% amid seasonal European demand weakness and intensified competition from palm biodiesel. Prices bottomed out in June but were cushioned by disciplined Brazilian exports, which prevented steeper declines despite narrowing producer margins.

Late-quarter restocking helped stabilize the market, while soybean oil costs maintained a moderate floor for pricing. Compared to steep declines seen in 2023, the quarter reflected more balanced supply-demand dynamics, indicating the sector’s transition to a steadier trading range. Biodiesel B100 (SME) ended Q2 2024 at USD 887/MT FOB Santos. 

 

Biodiesel B100 (SME) started 2024 with a 7.8% price decline from Q4 2023 levels, driven by weak post-holiday demand and high inventory overhang. The market faced subdued buying early in the quarter, though improving biodiesel-gasoline spreads and early European inquiries provided mild recovery support toward March.

Prices gradually approached production cost support levels, signalling the establishment of a near-term floor. Despite sluggish demand, steady Brazilian supply discipline prevented deeper losses. This quarter set the stage for a more stable pricing environment through mid-2024. Biodiesel B100 (SME) closed Q1 2024 at USD 890/MT FOB Santos. 

Technical Specifications of Biodiesel Price Trends

Biodiesel Industrial Applications

Biodiesel B100 (Soybean Methyl Ester) is primarily used as a renewable alternative to petroleum diesel in sectors such as transportation, agriculture, power generation, and marine engines. It is also utilized in government fleet programs, blending with conventional diesel (B5–B20 blends), and in the manufacture of lubricants, solvents, and biodegradable hydraulic fluids. Its clean-burning properties make it valuable in reducing emissions and improving engine performance. 

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Biodiesel prices

  • 2022–2023 Blending Mandate Adjustments 
    Brazil’s government fluctuated biodiesel blending mandates (dropping to B10, then reinstating B12–B13) amid inflation concerns. These policy shifts created uncertainty, triggering sharp price swings as producers adjusted output to changing mandated volumes. 
  • 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic Shock 
    Lockdowns and reduced transportation demand caused a steep drop in biodiesel consumption. Prices collapsed temporarily due to oversupply, compounded by falling soybean oil values, before recovering as Brazil increased blending mandates to support the sector. 
  • 2017–2018 Soybean Price Volatility 
    A global surge in soybean demand, fuelled by Chinese imports and U.S.–China trade tensions, sharply increased soybean oil feedstock costs. This drove Brazilian SME biodiesel production costs higher, leading to elevated domestic biodiesel prices despite stable diesel demand. 

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global biodiesel price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the biodiesel market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence biodiesel prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely biodiesel market data.

Track PriceWatch's biodiesel price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major biodiesel production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the biodiesel supply chain from raw material availability, such as vegetable oils and animal fats, to production and distribution. This includes tracking feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact Biodiesel prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing. 
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on Biodiesel production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.
  • Economic Shifts: PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., transportation industry), to predict shifts in Biodiesel demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Biodiesel production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming Biodiesel production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including transportation. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global Biodiesel pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast Biodiesel prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Biodiesel pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions. 

Biodiesel Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for biodiesel. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Biodiesel pricing is shaped by several interconnected factors. The most significant is soybean oil pricing, as it is the primary feedstock for Soybean Methyl Ester (SME). Government blending mandates and diesel price movements directly influence demand, while supply-side elements such as feedstock availability, refining capacity, and logistics impact market stability. Seasonal variations, global crude oil trends, and policy shifts in key markets like Brazil and the EU can create further price volatility. Additionally, competition from alternative biodiesel feedstocks, such as palm oil or used cooking oil, can affect overall pricing dynamics in regional and international markets.

To negotiate favourable biodiesel pricing, buyers should closely track feedstock markets, diesel price trends, and blending mandate policies to better understand cost drivers. Exploring long-term contracts can help secure stable pricing and potential volume discounts, particularly during volatile periods. Diversifying sourcing by considering palm-based biodiesel or UCOME can enhance bargaining power. Building strong supplier relationships through trust, transparency, and consistent engagement ensures flexibility in pricing and priority access during supply constraints. Additionally, negotiating optimized logistics terms, such as delivery schedules or incoterms, can reduce freight-related costs and improve the overall landed cost of biodiesel.

Biodiesel procurement carries risks like price volatility, supply disruptions, and quality inconsistencies. Price fluctuations arise from changing soybean oil and diesel markets, while supply can be impacted by feedstock shortages, refinery outages, or transport delays. Quality risks emerge if biodiesel fails to meet ASTM D6751 or EN 14214 standards, leading to operational or compliance issues. Mitigation strategies include using financial hedging tools like forward contracts to manage price exposure, diversifying suppliers and feedstock sources to reduce dependency on one region, and implementing strict quality control measures, including third-party testing and regular supplier audits, to ensure consistent and reliable fuel performance.

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