biodiesel Pricing Assessment

Name: Biodiesel Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast
Creator: PriceWatch
Published: 2025-02-11T06:51:11+00:00
License: https://www.price-watch.ai/privacy-policy/

Markets Covered:

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Biodiesel Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

Q1 2024

The market faced upward pressure due to tightening supply chains and increased raw material costs, particularly from palm oil. Demand experienced a slight decline of about 1.5%, driven by changing energy policies that encouraged a shift toward alternative fuels. Despite this, established markets in transportation and renewable energy had maintained relatively stable demand; however, overall pricing had been impacted by challenges in balancing production costs. In the first quarter of 2024, biodiesel prices in the US had averaged USD 2.77 per gallon.

Q2 2024

Supply dynamics had begun to improve as production issues had stabilized. Demand for biodiesel had shown signs of recovery, with a modest increase of about 1-2%, as market players had worked to balance production costs with evolving consumer preferences in the biodiesel sector. Moving into the second quarter of 2024, biodiesel prices had continued to fluctuate, declining slightly to approximately USD 1,317 per metric ton in the Netherlands.

Q3 2024

In the third quarter of 2024, biodiesel prices have averaged around USD 4,800 per metric ton in Brazil. Supply chain pressures have eased further, contributing to a healthier market environment. Compared to the second quarter, demand for biodiesel has increased by about 2%, reflecting a positive shift in interest in renewable energy. This growth in demand has allowed the market to achieve greater balance, supporting healthier biodiesel pricing and signaling optimism for the future of sustainable fuels.

Q4 2024

In the fourth quarter of 2024, biodiesel prices are expected to show continued stability in the market, with demand expected to increase accompanied by ample supply. This demand growth will likely have been driven by sustained interest in renewable energy and ongoing government incentives for sustainable fuels. Supply chain dynamics are expected to have improved further, supporting production capacities and ensuring a steady flow of feedstocks. Overall, the market will have been projected to remain balanced, fostering an environment conducive to healthy biodiesel demand and pricing.

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is your trusted resource for tracking global biodiesel price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the biodiesel market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With , you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence biodiesel prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with ’s reliable, accurate, and timely biodiesel market data.

Track 's biodiesel price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in biodiesel prices

Adverse Weather Conditions (2019-2020)

During this period, the El Niño weather pattern significantly impacted agricultural production, particularly for key feedstocks like soybean and palm oil used in biodiesel. Droughts and irregular weather patterns initially increased biodiesel demand due to supply concerns in 2019, but by 2020, demand had slightly declined as lower crop yields resulted in higher raw material costs, driving up prices.

COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2022)

The global pandemic disrupted supply chains across various industries, including biodiesel. Lockdowns and labor shortages hindered production and logistics, causing a notable decrease in biodiesel demand in 2020. As sectors adjusted to new realities, demand fluctuated inconsistently, with some segments like transportation showing resilience while others faced declines.

Shifts in Renewable Energy Policies (2020-2023)

Changes in government policies and regulations concerning renewable energy significantly influenced biodiesel demand. In 2020, as the European Union’s push for stricter sustainability criteria took effect, demand for biodiesel slightly declined due to increased compliance costs. However, by 2023, as countries sought to meet renewable fuel mandates, demand rebounded, driving up competition for feedstocks and impacting prices positively.

Trade Tensions and Supply Chain Disruptions (2021-2022)

Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes affected the availability and cost of feedstocks for biodiesel production. As restrictions on imports and exports led to heightened prices, demand for biodiesel experienced volatility, with producers struggling to secure necessary materials. This resulted in a decline in overall market stability during 2021, but a gradual recovery began in 2022.

Increased Demand for Sustainable Fuels (2023-2024)

As environmental concerns gained prominence, demand for sustainable fuels, including biodiesel, surged in 2023. This increase was driven by shifting consumer preferences and regulatory requirements, resulting in a stable upward trend in biodiesel demand as producers adapted to meet the market’s evolving expectations.

Methodology and Specifications

biodiesel Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.

On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major biodiesel production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.

Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the biodiesel supply chain from raw material availability, such as vegetable oils and animal fats, to production and distribution. This includes tracking feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: We monitor global conflicts and trade disputes that affect biodiesel prices, particularly due to reliance on specific feedstocks. Political instability can disrupt supply chains, leading to price spikes and long-term market changes.
Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of events like hurricanes and droughts on agricultural yields of key feedstocks (e.g., soybeans, palm oil). These risks are incorporated into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.
Economic Shifts: Our analysis of macroeconomic indicators, such as global growth and inflation, helps predict shifts in biodiesel demand. For instance, rising fuel prices or government incentives can drive higher biodiesel consumption.
Regulatory Changes: We track legislative developments affecting the biodiesel market, including renewable energy mandates. These changes can create opportunities or challenges for producers.
Technological Advancements: We monitor innovations in production technologies that can enhance efficiency or introduce alternative feedstocks, impacting production costs and market prices.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global biodiesel production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.

Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming biodiesel production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.

Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global biodiesel pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast biodiesel prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.

Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.

Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable biodiesel pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

294.86

CAS No

67762-26-9

HS Code

38260010

Molecular Formula

RCO2CH3

biodiesel

Biodiesel is an environmentally-friendly alternative to traditional diesel, made from renewable resources such as vegetable oils, animal fats, and algae. Produced through transesterification, it results in fatty acid methyl esters (FAME), offering reduced greenhouse gas emissions compared to fossil fuels. Biodiesel is widely used in the transportation and energy sectors and is seen as a key solution to reducing dependence on petroleum. Major producers include companies like Neste, Renewable Energy Group (REG), and Eni, with leading biodiesel production countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Indonesia. As countries push for cleaner energy solutions, biodiesel production is increasing, with global efforts focused on scaling up sustainable feedstock sources.

Packaging Type

Tanker

Grades Covered

Rapeseed Oil Methyl Ester, Palm Methyl Ester, Used Cooking Oil Methyl Ester, Soyabean Oil Methyl Ester.

Incoterms Used

FOB Antwerp, FOB Shanghai, FOB Jakarta, FOB Santos, FOB Mid-West, FOB Rotterdam

Synonym

Methyl Ester

Quotation Terms:

Min. 1000 MT, Min. 200 MT (Indonesia)

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Properties	Specification
Color	Brown to yellow
Physical State	Liquid
Odor	Mild oily or animal fat odor
Odor Threshold	Variable
pH	Variable
Vapor Pressure	Variable
Relative Vapor Density	Variable
Initial Boiling Point	>280°C (536°F)
Solubility	Negligible
Freezing Point	-1°C (30.2°F) – 20°C (68°F)
Melting Point	Variable
Specific Gravity	0.87 – 0.89 @ 25°C (77°F)
Density	Variable
Kinematic Viscosity	3.80 cSt – 5 cSt @ 40°C (104°F)
Coefficient of Therm. Expansion / °F	Variable
Evaporation Rate	Variable
Flashpoint	> 93 °C (> 199 °F)

Applications

Biodiesel is primarily used as a renewable fuel for transportation and heating, often blended with petroleum diesel. It powers agricultural machinery, serves as a lubricant and cleaning agent, and acts as a feedstock for bioproducts like fatty acids and alcohols used in cosmetics and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, biodiesel helps reduce emissions in marine applications.

Disclaimer

Biodiesel price provided by is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for biodiesel. disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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Frequently asked questions

What factors influence the pricing of biodiesel? +

The pricing of biodiesel is influenced by several key factors, including feedstock costs, production processes, and market demand. Feedstocks such as vegetable oils and animal fats account for a significant portion of production costs; thus, fluctuations in their prices directly impact biodiesel pricing. Additionally, regulatory incentives and mandates for renewable energy can drive demand, affecting market prices. Understanding these dynamics can help procurement heads make informed purchasing decisions.

How does biodiesel pricing compare to traditional fossil fuels? +

Biodiesel pricing can vary based on market conditions but is often influenced by the prices of traditional fossil fuels. While biodiesel may have a higher production cost, its price can be competitive, especially when factoring in government incentives and the environmental benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. For procurement heads, analyzing the total cost of ownership, including sustainability goals and potential long-term savings, is crucial when comparing biodiesel to fossil fuels.

What role do government policies play in biodiesel pricing? +

Government policies significantly impact biodiesel pricing through subsidies, tax incentives, and renewable fuel standards. These policies can lower production costs and promote market demand, making biodiesel more competitive with fossil fuels. Procurement heads should stay informed about policy changes to anticipate pricing fluctuations and ensure compliance with regulations. By leveraging available incentives, organizations can optimize their procurement strategies for biodiesel.