Global prices for Butyl Glycol are primarily influenced by major exporting countries like the USA, Saudi Arabia, and France. In Q1 and Q2 of 2024, geopolitical events, including rising tensions in the Middle East and trade route disruptions, significantly impacted the market. Additionally, feedstocks such as Ethylene Oxide and n-butanol have shown an upward trend during the first half of 2024, contributing to increased production costs and price fluctuations for Butyl Glycol.
In Q1 of 2024, Butyl Glycol prices in North America rose by 9% compared to previous quarter, driven by strong demand from the paint and coating industry. This increase was further supported by rising feedstock prices for n-butanol and Ethylene Oxide. Additionally, prolonged cargo holding times due to tensions in the Red Sea led to higher order volumes, while insurance costs significantly impacted importing countries. The Middle East experienced an 18% price increase due to rising demand and supply shortages caused by geopolitical tensions, alongside escalating insurance costs. Similarly, the European market followed the global trend, increasing by 6% as demand within the European Union rose, compounded by higher transportation costs and rising feedstock prices.
In Q2 of 2024, the North American and European markets continued their upward momentum, with Butyl Glycol prices rising by 5% and 8%, respectively, compared to the previous quarter. This growth was fuelled by rising feedstock prices and increased demand from the East Asian market. Conversely, the Middle East experienced a decline in demand, while supply improved, leading to a shift in the supply-demand equilibrium that resulted in a 3.5% decrease in prices from the previous quarter.
In Q3 of 2024, the North American market is experiencing a bullish trend, largely driven by rising Ethylene Oxide prices, a key feedstock, and strong demand from East Asia, particularly Singapore. Meanwhile, the European market has shown signs of stabilization in the early phase of Q3 and is expected to maintain equilibrium in supply and demand throughout the second half. Prices in the Middle East have also stabilized amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have become the new normal, and are likely to remain steady as the quarter progresses.
Looking ahead to Q4 2024 and beyond, the U.S. Gulf Coast is expected to add 1.5 million metric tons of ethylene production annually, which may help stabilize prices. Despite this, the market is projected to remain volatile through 2030, influenced by factors such as geopolitical developments, supply chain adjustments, and evolving demand dynamics.