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Coal Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 11101503
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âźł Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing

coal Price Trends by Country

zaSouth Africa
idIndonesia
auAustralia
inIndia

Global coal Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

Price-Watch’s most active coverage of Coal price assessment:

  • Thermal Coal (RB1) FOB Richard Bay, South Africa
  • Thermal Coal (RB2) FOB Richard Bay, South Africa
  • Thermal Coal (4200 GAR) FOB Kalimantan, Indonesia
  • Thermal Coal (3400 GAR) FOB Kalimantan, Indonesia
  • Coking Coal (PCI) FOB Hay Point, Australia
  • Coking Coal (PHCC) FOB Hay Point, Australia
  • Met Coke (BF 25-90mm) EX East India, India

Coal Price Trend Q3 2025

In Q3 2025, the global coal market remained under considerable downward pressure due to oversupply, soft power generation demand, and subdued steel output in major economies. High-grade coals such as PCI and PHCC were relatively stable, benefiting from consistent industrial use, while thermal coals and coke witnessed steeper declines amid weak import activity. September saw minor recoveries across several segments as restocking and logistical adjustments tightened short-term supply, though sentiment stayed generally bearish heading into Q4 2025.

South Africa

Coal Export prices FOB Richards Bay, South Africa, Grade- RB1 Coal.

According to the PriceWatch, the price trend of Coal (RB1) in South Africa declined in Q3 2025, as export demand weakened due to softer buying from major Asian consumers amid stable global coal supply. Domestic generation demand remained steady but failed to offset international weakness. Shipping constraints and competitive lower-grade coal offers further pressured prices.

The oversupply situation in the seaborne market kept sentiment subdued throughout the quarter. However, Coal (RB1) prices in South Africa rose by 1.2% in September 2025, supported by short-term restocking from Asian buyers and slight tightening of freight availability, giving temporary relief from earlier declines.

Australia

Coal Export prices FOB Hay Point, Australia, Grade- PHCC.

The price trend of Coal (PHCC) in Australia edged down by 1.06% in Q3 2025, after significant earlier strength, as demand from steel mills in India and East Asia softened due to production cuts and stable metallurgical inventories. Despite robust fundamentals, cautious procurement behavior dominated as buyers waited for clearer signals on steel output.

Supply remained steady amid favorable mining conditions, containing any sharp price movements. However, Coal (PHCC) prices in Australia increased by 2.7% in September 2025, supported by renewed procurement from Indian and South Korean buyers ahead of Q4 production schedules, adding modest momentum to the market.

Indonesia

Coal Export prices FOB Kalimantan, Indonesia, Grade- 4200 GAR.

The coal price trend (4200 GAR) in Indonesia fell sharply by 10.58% in Q3 2025 on quarter-on-quarter basis, as abundant supply coupled with weaker demand from China and India weighed heavily on the market. Increased rainfall in mining regions raised production costs but also limited shipments temporarily, failing to offset the broader surplus.

Lower international LNG prices diverted some buyers away from coal-based energy sources. However, Coal (4200 GAR) prices in Indonesia rose by 3.2% in September 2025, supported by short-term cargo bookings from Southeast Asian utilities and improved vessel availability, which stabilized market sentiment slightly.

India

Coal Domestically Traded Prices Ex- east India, Grade- Met Coke.

According to the PriceWatch, the coal price trend (Met Coke) in India fell sharply by 8.64% in Q3 2025, pressured by sluggish demand from steel manufacturers and falling coking coal costs. Steel output reductions across major producing nations reduced coke offtake, leading to inventory accumulation at ports.

Export sales volumes saw marked declines, particularly to South and East Asian buyers. Ample availability kept prices thinly supported even as some producers cut output. Coal prices in India rose by 1.4% in September 2025, with short-term refill orders from steel mills offering brief reprieve to an otherwise soft global market.

Coal Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

According to the PriceWatch, Indonesia’s coal price decreased from $49.6 per metric ton in Q1 2025 to $46.8 per metric ton in Q2 2025, a drop of 5.65%. This decline may be attributed to softer demand in key export markets, increased supply from domestic producers, and easing global energy prices following a milder-than-expected start to the year. Additionally, competition from other coal-exporting countries and fluctuations in shipping costs could have contributed to the downward pressure on prices.

South African coal prices saw a significant decrease of 8.51% in the quarter. The price drop likely reflects reduced demand from major Asian buyers, ongoing logistical challenges at South African ports, and increased competition from alternative suppliers. Broader global market softness and currency fluctuations may also have played a role in the downward trend.

Australia’s coal price experienced a marginal decrease of 0.54%. The relatively stable price suggests a balanced market, with steady demand from traditional buyers like Japan and South Korea offsetting minor supply increases. The slight dip could be due to seasonal factors or minor shifts in export volumes, but overall, the Australian coal market remained resilient during the quarter.

According to price watch, In Q2 2025, Indian coal prices edged down from $380.6 per metric ton in Q1 to $379 per metric ton in Q2, reflecting a marginal decline. This slight decrease was primarily due to a combination of steady growth in domestic coal production, which increased by nearly 6% year-on-year, and a significant build-up of coal inventories stocks at coal companies rose by over 29% compared to the previous year. The ample domestic supply, alongside only modest growth in demand from the power and industrial sectors, kept prices under pressure.

Additionally, while Coal India implemented a minor price hike in April to support operational costs and worker pensions, the overall market impact was muted by robust supply and subdued import demand, mirroring broader global trends of weakening coal prices amid steady supply and economic uncertainty.

The first quarter of 2025 opened with Indonesian coal experiencing price declines to $49.7/MT as against $52.3/MT in last quarter, primarily driven by persistent oversupply conditions and weakening regional demand as major Asian economies continued their accelerated transition toward renewable energy sources and reduced coal dependency.

South African coal markets reflected cautious sentiment as European buyers adopted wait-and-see approaches amid improving energy security conditions and mild winter weather patterns that reduced immediate coal requirements.

Australian coal markets continued to face challenging conditions with market participants expressing concerns over long-term demand sustainability, as traditional importing nations strengthened their commitments to carbon neutrality targets and domestic renewable capacity expansion.

Indian coal sentiment remained mixed as the market balanced between improved domestic production capabilities and seasonal industrial demand patterns, with market participants closely monitoring government policy directions and infrastructure development priorities.

The quarter overall demonstrated the ongoing structural transformation of global coal markets, with regional suppliers adapting to evolving demand patterns while navigating the complex interplay between energy security needs and environmental commitments across major consuming economies.

In Q1 2025, Indian coal prices rebounded to $393/MT, a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter increase. The price uptick was driven by renewed demand from the power sector, as electricity consumption rose with the approach of summer and increased industrial activity. Policy measures to further strengthen domestic supply chains and reduce import dependency also contributed to market stability.

The sentiment was cautiously positive, with expectations that strong production growth and robust demand would support prices, even as the government continued to prioritize energy security and affordable power for all sectors.

Coal Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

The final quarter of 2024 presented a complex market landscape with varying regional performances reflecting divergent supply-demand fundamentals. South African coal experienced slight price moderation after previous gains, as winter demand in the Northern Hemisphere normalized and buyers completed seasonal stockpiling activities.

Indonesian markets showed marginal price recovery following sustained pressure in earlier quarters, benefiting from year-end restocking activities and improved demand from power generation sectors across Asia.

Australian coal faced continued substantial declines with further significant price corrections, highlighting ongoing structural challenges including reduced Chinese imports, increased domestic renewable capacity in key markets, and growing environmental restrictions on coal trade.

Indian coal markets witnessed notable price declines as domestic production reached new highs, government policies favored local sourcing, and import dependency decreased significantly. The quarter concluded with mixed sentiment as market participants weighed short-term seasonal factors against long-term structural trends toward cleaner energy alternatives, while geopolitical tensions continued to influence trade patterns and energy security considerations globally.

In Q4 2024, Indian coal prices fell to $385/MT, marking a 5.4% decrease from the previous quarter. The end of the monsoon season allowed mining activity to fully resume, leading to increased supply and easing previous constraints. Additionally, utilities had built up significant inventories ahead of the festival and winter season, reducing spot market demand.

Market sentiment was neutral to slightly bearish, as producers faced pressure to maintain sales in an environment of abundant supply and moderate demand. The focus shifted towards export opportunities and cost optimization to sustain profitability.

The third quarter witnessed mixed market dynamics as regional factors began to dominate global coal trade patterns. South African producers benefited from continued price strengthening, reflecting sustained European demand driven by energy security concerns and industrial recovery in key markets. Indonesian coal faced persistent downward pressure with further price erosion, as increased competition from other regional suppliers and environmental regulations in key importing countries dampened long-term demand prospects.

Australian coal markets showed signs of stabilization with modest price improvements after previous quarters’ steep declines, though sentiment remained fragile due to ongoing trade relationship complexities and structural demand shifts.

India maintained its steady trajectory with slight price increases, supported by robust domestic economic growth, industrial expansion, and strategic inventory building ahead of the peak demand season.

Market sentiment reflected growing recognition of coal’s transitional role in energy security, even as long-term renewable energy commitments continued to shape procurement strategies across major consuming regions.

Q3 2024 saw Indian coal prices rise marginally again to $407/MT, a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter increase. The price uptick was largely seasonal, as the monsoon period typically disrupts mining and transport, creating short-term supply constraints. Despite these challenges, India’s coal output stayed strong, with the government and private sector working to minimize disruptions and ensure steady supplies.

The market sentiment was generally steady, with buyers and producers alike expecting prices to remain range bound as long as production targets were met, and demand growth stayed consistent.

The second quarter marked a period of tentative recovery and market stabilization as seasonal demand patterns began to emerge. South African coal showed signs of revival with notable price improvements, driven by renewed European demand as utilities prepared for potential energy security challenges and summer cooling requirements.

Indonesian supplies maintained their competitive edge with modest further price adjustments, as producers optimized output levels to match subdued but steady Asian demand, particularly from India and other Southeast Asian markets.

Australian coal continued to face challenging conditions with further significant price declines, as the market grappled with structural shifts in traditional demand patterns and increased renewable energy adoption by key importing nations.

Indian coal markets demonstrated stabilization with marginal price increases, supported by domestic industrial recovery and monsoon-related supply concerns that encouraged strategic stockpiling by power generators.

Market participants expressed cautious optimism while closely monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impact on global energy trade flows.

In Q2 2024, coal prices in India edged up slightly to $405/MT, a modest 1.2% increase from the previous quarter. This minor rebound was attributed to seasonal factors, such as the onset of summer and increased electricity consumption, which drove up demand for thermal coal. Despite the continued strength in domestic production, logistical challenges and intermittent weather disruptions affected the coal movement, supporting a mild price recovery.

The market remained balanced, with utilities and industrial users maintaining healthy stockpiles. Sentiment was cautiously optimistic, as stakeholders anticipated steady demand but were mindful of the government’s ongoing push to keep supplies ample and prices in check

The first quarter of 2024 opened with significant bearish sentiment across major coal markets globally, reflecting a substantial correction from the elevated levels witnessed in late 2023. South African coal markets experienced pronounced downward pressure as global demand moderated, and supply chains normalized following previous disruptions.

Indonesian coal demonstrated resilience with relatively stable conditions, though still facing minor downward adjustments as Asian buyers adopted cautious procurement strategies amid uncertain economic outlook. Australian coal markets encountered substantial headwinds with considerable price corrections, primarily driven by reduced Chinese demand and increased competition from alternative suppliers.

The Indian market showed the most dramatic adjustment with steep price declines, reflecting domestic policy shifts toward renewable energy, reduced import dependency, and improved domestic production capacity. Overall market sentiment remained cautious as traders anticipated further demand softening amid global economic uncertainties and accelerating energy transition policies.

In Q1 2024, Indian coal prices dropped sharply to $400/MT from $507/MT in Q4 2023, representing a steep quarter-on-quarter decline of approximately 21%. This significant price correction was primarily due to a surge in domestic coal production, which reached record highs as India pushed to boost self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on imports. The government’s aggressive output targets led to ample supply, easing pressure on prices.

Power demand remained robust, but the well-supplied market gave buyers more bargaining power, resulting in softer pricing. Market sentiment was stable, with industry participants confident that domestic production would continue to meet growing energy needs, further supporting India’s energy security goals.

Technical Specifications of Coal Price Trends

Product Description

Coal is a solid fossil fuel formed from the remains of ancient plants subjected to heat and pressure over millions of years. It is primarily composed of carbon, along with varying amounts of hydrogen, sulphur, oxygen, and nitrogen.

Identifiers and Classification:

  • HS Code – 27011200


Coal Grades Specific Price Assessment:

  • Coal Thermal Coal (RB2) Indonesia Price Trend
  • Coal Thermal Coal (RB1) Indonesia Price Trend
  • Coal 4200 GAR Indonesia Price Trend
  • Coal 3400 GAR Indonesia Price Trend
  • Australia PHCC coking coal Price Trend
  • Australia PCI coking coal Price Trend
  • India Met coke Price Trend


Coal Global Trade and Shipment Terms

  • Quotation Terms: 4000-5000 MT
  • Packaging Type: Bulk


Incoterms Referenced in Coal Price Reporting

Shipping Term  Location  Definition 
FOB Richards Bay  Richards Bay, South Africa  Export Price of Thermal Coal from South Africa 
FOB Kalimantan  Kalimantan, Indonesia  Export Price of Thermal Coal from Indonesia 
FOB Hay point  Hay Point, Australia  Export Price of Coking Coal from Australia 
Ex- east India  East India  Domestically Traded Met coke price in East India 

*Quotation Terms refers to the quantity range specified for the Coal being quoted or offered in a commercial transaction.

**Packaging Type refers to standard packaging size commonly used for Coal packing, ease of handling, transportation, and storage in industrial and commercial applications.


Key Coal Manufacturers

Manufacturers 
China Shenhua Energy 
Coal India Limited (CIL) 
BHP Group 
Glencore 
China Energy Investment Corporation (CEIC) 
Rio Tinto 
Anglo American plc 
Peabody Energy 

Coal Industrial Applications

Coal Market Share end use

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Coal prices

  • Impact on Investment and Financing: Elevated interest rates globally, particularly in major economies like the U.S. and Europe, made financing more expensive for businesses.
  • Global Supply Chain Disruption (2022): The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions disrupted supply chains, leading to price volatility in various commodities, including coal.
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2019-2020): The global pandemic led to a significant decline in demand for coal-intensive industries, such as steelmaking and automotive manufacturing, causing prices to plummet.
  • Global Economic Downturn (2019-2020): The global economic slowdown, particularly in sectors like steel and automotive, led to reduced demand for coal, resulting in lower prices.

These events underscore the coal market’s vulnerability to global disruptions and highlight the need for continuous monitoring of supply-demand dynamics.

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global coal price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the coal market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence coal prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely coal market data.

Track PriceWatch's coal price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major coal production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire coal supply chain, from raw material availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact coal prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on coal production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.
  • Economic Shifts: PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging, to predict shifts in coal demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global coal production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming coal production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global coal pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast coal prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable coal pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Coal Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for coal. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Commodity prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including:

 Production cost: Production costs directly influence commodity prices. When production expenses rise, such as through higher raw material or labor costs, commodity prices typically increase. Conversely, lower production cost leads to reduced prices of particular commodity.

Supply and Demand: The fundamental driver of commodity prices is the balance between supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise, and vice versa.  

Economic Growth: Global economic growth, particularly in emerging markets, can increase demand for commodities, driving prices higher.  

Geopolitical Events: Political instability, conflicts, and trade tensions can disrupt supply chains, affecting commodity prices.  

Natural Disasters: Weather events such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes can impact the production and availability of certain commodities.  

Speculation: Financial speculators can influence commodity prices through their trading activities.  

Government Policies: Government policies, such as tariffs, subsidies, and regulations, can impact the production, consumption, and trade of commodities.  

 PriceWatch, a leading procurement intelligence firm, offers a comprehensive suite of tools and services to help you effectively track commodity prices.

Some of the key benefits of using PriceWatch include:

 Real-time Data: Access to up-to-date market intelligence and data on commodity supply chains.

Expert Analysis: Insights from industry experts to interpret market trends and identify potential risks.

Risk Assessment: Tools to assess supply chain vulnerabilities and develop mitigation strategies.

Benchmarking: Comparisons of commodity prices and sourcing practices to optimize procurement decisions.

Supplier Intelligence: Detailed information on suppliers, including their financial health, production capacity, and sustainability practices.

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