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Coal Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 11101503
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⟳ Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing
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coal Price Trends by Country

zaSouth Africa
idIndonesia
auAustralia
inIndia
cnChina

Global coal Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

Price-Watchâ„¢ provides real-time price assessments and price forecasts for Coal across top trading regions:

Coal Regional Coverage  Coal Grade and Country Coverage  Coal Pricing Data Coverage Explanation 
Asia-Pacific Coal Pricing Analysis Thermal Coal (3400 GAR) FOB Prices at Kalimantan, Indonesia Weekly Price Update on Thermal Coal Real-Time Export Prices from Kalimantan, Indonesia to Global Markets
Thermal Coal (4200 GAR) FOB Prices at Kalimantan, Indonesia Weekly Price Update on Thermal Coal Real-Time Export Prices from Kalimantan, Indonesia to Global Markets
Coking Coal PHCC FOB Prices at Hay Point, Australia Weekly Price Update on Coking Coal Real-Time Export Prices from Hay Point, Australia to Global Markets
Coking Coal HCC FOB Prices at Hay Point, Australia Weekly Price Update on Coking Coal Real-Time Export Prices from Hay Point, Australia to Global Markets
Coking Coal PHCC CIF Prices at Qingdao, China. Importing from Australia Weekly Price Update on Coking Coal Real-Time Import Prices at Qingdao, China, from Australia
Coking Coal PHCC CIF Prices at Paradip, India. Importing from Australia Weekly Price Update on Coking Coal Real-Time Import Prices at Paradip, India, from Australia
PCI Coal FOB Prices at Hay Point, Australia Weekly Price Update on PCI Coal Real-Time Export Prices from Hay Point, Australia to Global Markets
Middle East & Africa Coal Pricing Analysis Thermal Coal RB1 (6000 NAR) FOB Prices at Richards Bay, South Africa Weekly Price Update on Thermal Coal Real-Time Export Prices from Richards Bay, South Africa to Global Markets
Thermal Coal RB2 (5500 NAR) FOB Prices at Richards Bay, South Africa Weekly Price Update on Thermal Coal Real-Time Export Prices from Richards Bay, South Africa to Global Markets

Coal Price Forecasts & Market Foresight Q3 2026

Outlook: Stable to slightly Bearish

Confidence: High

The global seaborne coal market is expected to maintain a stable-to-slightly-bearish trajectory during Q3 2026, constrained by cautious buying and adequate regional inventories. In Indonesia, steady output of low-to-mid calorific value coal will face muted spot demand as major buyers in Asia prioritize cautious inventory management.

Across Australia, reliable production from Queensland and New South Wales will keep export volumes ample, though lack-luster demand from North Asian utilities will prevent upward pricing momentum.

Meanwhile, South African suppliers may see consistent shipments routed toward specialized industrial pockets like India’s sponge iron sector, yet overall export values will remain capped by sluggish global energy requirements. Ultimately, comfortable supply chains and measured procurement strategies will prevent sharp fluctuations, locking the market into a subdued, rangebound pattern.

Global Coal Market Overview by Region (July–September 2026)

Country Grade/ Incoterm Outlook
South Africa Coal price RB1 (6000 NAR) FOB Richards Bay Slightly Bearish
South Africa Coal price RB2 (5500 NAR) FOB Richards Bay Slightly Bearish
Indonesia Coal price thermal coal (4200 GAR) FOB Kalimantan Slightly Bearish
Indonesia Coal price thermal coal (3400 GAR) FOB Kalimantan Slightly Bearish
Australia Coking Coal PHCC FOB Hay Point Slightly Bearish
Australia Coking Coal HCC FOB Hay Point Slightly Bearish
Australia Coking coal Australian origin PHCC CIF Qingdao Bearish
Australia Coking coal Australian origin PHCC CIF Paradeep Bearish
Australia Coking coal PCI FOB Hay Point Slightly Bearish

*Coal Forecast represents an analytical assessment based on information available at the time of publication. Actual market prices may vary due to unforeseen operational, regulatory, geopolitical, or economic developments.

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The 3-Month Forecast (Updated Monthly)

It reflects changes in feedstock costs, energy prices, producer operating rates, plant outages, inventory levels, trade flows, freight rates, regional demand, and geopolitical developments affecting the global Coal market.

The 12-Month Forecast (Published Annually)

It provides a strategic outlook based on expected capacity additions, supply-demand balances, feedstock economics, macroeconomic conditions, industrial production trends, trade policies, seasonal demand patterns, and long-term supply chain developments, supporting procurement, budgeting, and strategic planning.

Our Proprietary Hybrid Forecasting Model Evaluates:

  • Feedstock & production economics
  • Plant operating rates & outages
  • Inventory and supply-demand balance
  • Regional trade flows & freight
  • Import-export dynamics
  • Macroeconomic & geopolitical developments

 

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Coal Price Trend Q2 2026

The global seaborne coal market in Q2 2026 exhibited distinct dynamic trends across thermal and metallurgical segments. The Coal Market Price Index reflected robust quarterly gains across thermal benchmarks, driven by pre-summer inventory building across Asian utilities, geopolitical risks that spurred coal-fired power generation as an alternative to LNG, and supply-side constraints such as Indonesian export policy controls.

Conversely, the metallurgical coal complex experienced a generally quiet second quarter as compressed steelmaker profit margins in East Asia encouraged a disciplined, hand-to-mouth buying strategy.

Delivered cargoes (CNF), however, maintained an upward trajectory due to elevated ocean freight rates and persistent demand from expanding Indian blast furnace capacity. Overall, The Coal Market Price Chart highlights a strong Q2 baseline defined by thermal substitution, supply-side friction, and rising freight overheads.

Coal price RB1 (6000 NAR) FOB Richards Bay, South Africa

The price trend of Coal (Rb1) in South Africa advanced by 10.1% in Q2 2026, supported by firm export demand and stable buying from key consuming markets. Sellers benefited from better spot interest as buyers covered requirements ahead of potential logistical disruptions and seasonal volatility.

The grade also gained from its utility in blending applications, which kept procurement steady through the quarter. Overall, RB1 moved higher on a combination of healthy demand and limited immediate supply pressure. In June 2026, Rb1 coal prices in South Africa rose by 1.38% as buying interest remained consistent and prompt cargo availability stayed manageable.

Traders and end users continued to secure material for near-term consumption, preventing any softening in the market. The monthly increase was moderate, but it confirmed the underlying firmness seen throughout the quarter. Supply discipline and steady offtake kept the trend positive.

Coal price RB2 (5500 NAR) FOB Richards Bay, South Africa

The price trend of Coal (Rb2) in South Africa increased by 10.2% in Q2 2026, driven by strong cost-conscious demand from non-power industrial consumers in South Asia. Price-sensitive buyers actively sought out RB2 as an economical substitute for high-calorific coal, boosting liquidity across Richards Bay terminals.

Persistent Transnet rail infrastructure bottlenecks capped spot cargo supply, amplifying upward pricing momentum through the quarter. In June 2026, Rb2 coal prices in South Africa gained 1.07% as industrial consumers maintained steady, hand-to-mouth procurement schedules.

Port congestion and tight prompt supply prevented discounting, establishing a firm price floor. Lower-tier thermal demand remained supportive, maintaining a stable upward trajectory through the month.

Coking coal PHCC FOB Hay Point, Australia

The price trend of Coking Coal (PHCC) in Australia rose by a modest 1.7% in Q2 2026, constrained by squeezed steelmaker profit margins across East Asia, which forced mills to adopt cautious procurement strategies. While blast furnace production remained stable, buyers minimized spot exposure and preferred long-term contract allocations.

Moderate output recoveries at key Queensland mines kept the FOB spot market comfortably supplied, capping major price surges. In June 2026, PHCC coal prices in Australia advanced by 2.45% as global coking coal sentiment turned positive, led by rising domestic coke prices in China.

A mid-month uptick in spot inquiries from Indian steel mills provided secondary support to FOB values. Improved pig iron production levels across Asia provided the momentum needed to break out of its prior quarterly range.

Coking coal PCI FOB Hay Point, Australia

The price trend of Coking Coal (PCI) in Australia crept up by 1.3% in Q2 2026, reflecting subdued spot interest from global steelmakers attempting to lower raw material costs. While PCI maintained its role as an essential cost-saving injection coal, excess availability in the seaborne market kept quarterly price appreciation subdued compared to thermal benchmarks.

In June 2026, PCI coal prices in Australia surged by 10.12% as steelmakers aggressively sought PCI as a cheaper substitute for expensive hard coking coal. Tightening supply of mid-tier metallurgical coals and higher thermal coal baseline prices created strong upward pressure. Increased spot tender activity from East Asian mills tightened prompt availability, driving a sharp monthly spike.

Coal price thermal coal (4200 GAR) FOB Kalimantan, Indonesia

The price trend of Coal (4200 GAR) in Indonesia climbed by 23.6% in Q2 2026, outperforming most global benchmarks due to heavy stockpiling from Chinese coastal utilities and Indian power generators. Policy controls tightening Indonesian export routing combined with severe wet weather disruptions in Kalimantan reduced spot availability.

Strong thermal substitution demand during peak power generation periods allowed miners to command significant price premiums. In June 2026, 4200 GAR coal prices in Indonesia extended gains by 6.53% as summer cooling demand across Southeast and East Asia maintained peak power loads.

High spot freight rates and vessel clearance delays at key Indonesian anchorages tightened prompt cargo supply. Robust bidding from Chinese buyers ensured that sub-bituminous grades maintained firm upward momentum.

Coal price thermal coal (3400 GAR) FOB Kalimantan, Indonesia

The price trend of Coal (3400 GAR) in Indonesia advanced by 16.6% in Q2 2026, propelled by strong demand from price-sensitive industrial end-users and brick kilns in South Asia. Low-rank Indonesian coal saw widespread utilization in fuel-blending strategies to offset the high costs of premium thermal grades.

Supply-side bottlenecks in Sumatra further supported FOB prices throughout the three-month period. In June 2026, 3400 GAR coal prices in Indonesia rose by 8.36% as domestic power demand in regional Asian markets forced utilities to seek quick-loading low-rank cargoes.

Consistent off-take from small-to-medium industrial plants limited vessel spot length, keeping offer prices elevated. Buyers accepted higher price levels to secure prompt delivery ahead of monsoon-related shipping slowdowns.

Coking coal HCC FOB Hay Point, Australia

The price trend of High Coking Coal in Australia FOB declined by 1.6% in Q2 2026, impacted by sluggish spot market liquidity and weak demand from non-integrated steel producers. Buyers prioritized higher-tier PHCC for furnace efficiency or switched to discounted PCI, leaving mid-quality coking coal under pressure.

Healthy supply out of Australian ports kept spot availability high, forcing sellers to offer discounts. In June 2026, High Coking Coal prices in Australia FOB rebounded sharply by 9.00% following a broader recovery across the coking coal complex.

A surge in Chinese domestic coking coal prices, driven by Shanxi mine safety inspections, redirected international trade flows toward seaborne alternatives. Australian exporters capitalized on the supply deficit, triggering a sharp month-on-month price recovery.

Coking coal Australian origin PHCC CIF Qingdao, China

The price trend of Australia Origin PHCC CNF China rose by 6.2% in Q2 2026, supported by rising ocean freight costs and steady import clearance rates into key Chinese ports. While domestic Chinese steel margins were under pressure, import demand for premium Australian quality remained resilient due to necessary blending requirements.

In June 2026, Australia Origin PHCC coal prices CNF China surged by 15.20% as widespread coal mine safety inspections and accidents in Shanxi severely restricted Chinese domestic coking coal output.

Chinese steel mills executed multiple rounds of coke price hikes, driving intense spot demand for imported seaborne cargoes. Soaring capesize and panamax freight rates further amplified the delivered CNF price surge.

Coking coal Australian origin PHCC CIF Paradeep, India

The price trend of Australia Origin PHCC CNF Coal in India grew by 7.4% in Q2 2026, backed by sustained blast furnace expansion and strong pig iron production in India. Indian steel mills steadily increased import volumes to support infrastructure-driven domestic steel consumption, while rising seaborne shipping tariffs added momentum to landed prices.

In June 2026, Australia Origin PHCC coal prices CNF India edged up by 1.30% as buyer resistance emerged ahead of the seasonal monsoon slowdown. Indian mills maintained adequate port stock levels and scaled back aggressive spot bidding, shifting to contractual deliveries. Despite softer spot demand, firm ocean freight rates prevented landed CNF prices from reversing.

Coal Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2026

Coal Price Trend Q1 2026

In the first quarter of 2026, the global coal price trend displayed a bullish profile across most segments, underpinned by sustained steelmaking demand, supply tightness from weather disruptions and export curbs, and firm coking coal premiums amid capacity constraints in key origins.

South African and Australian hard coking coals led the strength driven by seaborne tightness and restocking in major importing regions, while Indonesian thermal grades and met coke benefited from utility and blast furnace resilience. India encountered softer tones on select lower-CV thermals due to domestic stock builds and hydro recovery, underscoring clear regional divergences in market dynamics.

Coal price RB2 (5500 NAR) FOB Richards Bay, South Africa

According to Price-Watchâ„¢ , the coal price trend from South Africa climbed 18.7% in Q1 2026, fueled by strong demand from premium coke producers and ongoing rail/export constraints amplifying scarcity at key terminals.

Indian and Southeast Asian buyers front-loaded cargoes amid fears of seasonal disruptions and cyclone threats. Blending economics favored RB2’s volatility specs over mid-vol alternatives, supporting higher realizations despite freight upticks.

Mills absorbed volumes into long-term blends, rationing spot offerings. In March 2026, Coal RB2 prices from South Africa increased 9.9% with sustained buying interest from majors. Export queues lengthened at Richards Bay. Firm coking coal spreads and quality demand reinforced the quarterly momentum without pullbacks.

Coking coal PCI FOB Hay Point, Australia

The coal price trend from Australia gained 14.0% in Q1 2026, supported by steady PCI blending in Asia-Pacific furnaces and supply cuts from pit closures and weather events in key Bowen Basin operations.

Costlier Australian tonnage edged out weaker South American origins, with Indian majors lifting volumes for cost-effective injection programs. Freight stability from east coast ports aided competitiveness versus longer-haul Atlantic routes.

Spot market liquidity improved as traders covered shorts ahead of monsoons. Mill economics favored higher PCI rates. In March 2026, coal price trend from Australia declined -9.4% amid post-winter inventory digestion. Excess trader positions led to discounting. Subdued immediate buying capped the strong quarterly momentum.

Coal price thermal coal (4200 GAR) FOB Kalimantan, Indonesia

The coal price trend from Indonesia rose 10.7% in Q1 2026, as utility demand in India and China offset early hydro gains, with steady Kalimantan output but vessel delays firming FOB values amid bunker cost rises.

Power sector restocking countered weak spot sentiment in Europe and Japan. Blending with higher-CV grades from Australia aided affordability for marginal coastal plants.

Domestic consumption remained resilient through winter. Barging efficiency supported exports. In March 2026, Coal 4200 GAR prices from Indonesia surged 16.2% on renewed power buying ahead of summer peaks. Supply tightness from ramp-up delays lifted offers. Strong utility margins drove the sharp monthly rebound.

Coking coal Australian origin PHCC CIF Qingdao, China

The coal price trend CFR China (Australia origin) climbed 5.5% in Q1 2026, supported by steady blast furnace restocking and policy-driven steel output stability despite import quota vigilance. Australian supply tightness from mine floods filtered through to higher CFR levels, with mills blending PHCC for cost-effective injections. Freight rates stabilized post-Lunar disruptions, aiding delivered economics.

Spot volumes favored long-term buyers, narrowing trader discounts. However, in March 2026, Coal PHCC prices on CIF Qingdao China (Australia origin) basis declined -2.2% amid controlled mill buying. Domestic met coke alternatives gained traction. Subdued export momentum from Australia capped the modest quarterly rise.

Coking coal Australian origin PHCC CIF Paradip, India

The coal price trend CFR India (Australia origin) surged 19.0% in Q1 2026, propelled by aggressive steelmaker imports to replenish coastal stocks ahead of monsoon risks and robust domestic BF utilization. Australian weather curtailments amplified scarcity, pushing CFR premiums amid competitive bidding from majors.

Blending with domestic PCI optimized costs while quality specs met injection needs. Freight from east coast Australia remained viable versus alternatives. Howver, in March 2026, Coal PHCC prices on CIF Paradip India basis (Australia origin) eased -2.7% as front-loaded volumes digested. Hydro power gains indirectly softened urgency. Firm quarterly tailwinds persisted from supply discipline.

Coal Price Trend Analysis 2025

Coal Price Trend Q1 2025

The first quarter of 2025 opened with Indonesian coal experiencing price declines to $49.7/MT as against $52.3/MT in last quarter, primarily driven by persistent oversupply conditions and weakening regional demand as major Asian economies continued their accelerated transition toward renewable energy sources and reduced coal dependency.

South African coal markets reflected cautious sentiment as European buyers adopted wait-and-see approaches amid improving energy security conditions and mild winter weather patterns that reduced immediate coal requirements.

Australian coal markets continued to face challenging conditions with market participants expressing concerns over long-term demand sustainability, as traditional importing nations strengthened their commitments to carbon neutrality targets and domestic renewable capacity expansion.

Indian coal sentiment remained mixed as the market balanced between improved domestic production capabilities and seasonal industrial demand patterns, with market participants closely monitoring government policy directions and infrastructure development priorities.

The quarter overall demonstrated the ongoing structural transformation of global coal markets, with regional suppliers adapting to evolving demand patterns while navigating the complex interplay between energy security needs and environmental commitments across major consuming economies.

In Q1 2025, Indian coal prices rebounded to $393/MT, a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter increase. The price uptick was driven by renewed demand from the power sector, as electricity consumption rose with the approach of summer and increased industrial activity. Policy measures to further strengthen domestic supply chains and reduce import dependency also contributed to market stability.

The sentiment was cautiously positive, with expectations that strong production growth and robust demand would support prices, even as the government continued to prioritize energy security and affordable power for all sectors.

Coal Price Trend Q2 2025

According to the PriceWatch, Indonesia’s coal price decreased from $49.6 per metric ton in Q1 2025 to $46.8 per metric ton in Q2 2025, a drop of 5.65%. This decline may be attributed to softer demand in key export markets, increased supply from domestic producers, and easing global energy prices following a milder-than-expected start to the year. Additionally, competition from other coal-exporting countries and fluctuations in shipping costs could have contributed to the downward pressure on prices.

South African coal prices saw a significant decrease of 8.51% in the quarter. The price drop likely reflects reduced demand from major Asian buyers, ongoing logistical challenges at South African ports, and increased competition from alternative suppliers. Broader global market softness and currency fluctuations may also have played a role in the downward trend.

Australia’s coal price experienced a marginal decrease of 0.54%. The relatively stable price suggests a balanced market, with steady demand from traditional buyers like Japan and South Korea offsetting minor supply increases. The slight dip could be due to seasonal factors or minor shifts in export volumes, but overall, the Australian coal market remained resilient during the quarter.

According to price watch, In Q2 2025, Indian coal prices edged down from $380.6 per metric ton in Q1 to $379 per metric ton in Q2, reflecting a marginal decline. This slight decrease was primarily due to a combination of steady growth in domestic coal production, which increased by nearly 6% year-on-year, and a significant build-up of coal inventories stocks at coal companies rose by over 29% compared to the previous year. The ample domestic supply, alongside only modest growth in demand from the power and industrial sectors, kept prices under pressure.

Additionally, while Coal India implemented a minor price hike in April to support operational costs and worker pensions, the overall market impact was muted by robust supply and subdued import demand, mirroring broader global trends of weakening coal prices amid steady supply and economic uncertainty.

Coal Price Trend Q3 2025

In Q3 2025, the global coal market remained under considerable downward pressure due to oversupply, soft power generation demand, and subdued steel output in major economies. High-grade coals such as PCI and PHCC were relatively stable, benefiting from consistent industrial use, while thermal coals and coke witnessed steeper declines amid weak import activity. September saw minor recoveries across several segments as restocking and logistical adjustments tightened short-term supply, though sentiment stayed generally bearish heading into Q4 2025.

South Africa: Coal Export prices FOB Richards Bay, South Africa, Grade- RB1 Coal.

According to the PriceWatch, the price trend of Coal (RB1) in South Africa declined in Q3 2025, as export demand weakened due to softer buying from major Asian consumers amid stable global coal supply. Domestic generation demand remained steady but failed to offset international weakness. Shipping constraints and competitive lower-grade coal offers further pressured prices.

The oversupply situation in the seaborne market kept sentiment subdued throughout the quarter. However, Coal (RB1) prices in South Africa rose by 1.2% in September 2025, supported by short-term restocking from Asian buyers and slight tightening of freight availability, giving temporary relief from earlier declines.

Australia: Coal Export prices FOB Hay Point, Australia, Grade- PHCC.

The price trend of Coal (PHCC) in Australia edged down by 1.06% in Q3 2025, after significant earlier strength, as demand from steel mills in India and East Asia softened due to production cuts and stable metallurgical inventories. Despite robust fundamentals, cautious procurement behavior dominated as buyers waited for clearer signals on steel output.

Supply remained steady amid favorable mining conditions, containing any sharp price movements. However, Coal (PHCC) prices in Australia increased by 2.7% in September 2025, supported by renewed procurement from Indian and South Korean buyers ahead of Q4 production schedules, adding modest momentum to the market.

Indonesia: Coal Export prices FOB Kalimantan, Indonesia, Grade- 4200 GAR.

The coal price trend (4200 GAR) in Indonesia fell sharply by 10.58% in Q3 2025 on quarter-on-quarter basis, as abundant supply coupled with weaker demand from China and India weighed heavily on the market. Increased rainfall in mining regions raised production costs but also limited shipments temporarily, failing to offset the broader surplus.

Lower international LNG prices diverted some buyers away from coal-based energy sources. However, Coal (4200 GAR) prices in Indonesia rose by 3.2% in September 2025, supported by short-term cargo bookings from Southeast Asian utilities and improved vessel availability, which stabilized market sentiment slightly.

India: Coal Domestically Traded Prices Ex- east India, Grade- Met Coke.

According to the PriceWatch, the coal price trend (Met Coke) in India fell sharply by 8.64% in Q3 2025, pressured by sluggish demand from steel manufacturers and falling coking coal costs. Steel output reductions across major producing nations reduced coke offtake, leading to inventory accumulation at ports.

Export sales volumes saw marked declines, particularly to South and East Asian buyers. Ample availability kept prices thinly supported even as some producers cut output. Coal prices in India rose by 1.4% in September 2025, with short-term refill orders from steel mills offering brief reprieve to an otherwise soft global market.

Coal Price Trend Q4 2025

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the global coal market experienced varied performance across regions and specifications, shaped by strong winter power demand in Asia, steady steel production recovery, and logistical challenges from weather patterns. Export origins like South Africa benefited from reliable port operations and heating season purchases, while Australian premium grades saw sharp gains from tight supply amid steel mill restocking.

Indonesian thermal coals rallied on Chinese electricity needs and Indian industrial usage, contrasting with selective softness in injection grades. India’s metallurgical coke firmed as domestic steel expansions absorbed redirected international tonnages, creating a dynamic landscape of regional strength versus localized pressures.

Coal price RB1 (6000 NAR) FOB Richards Bay, South Africa

According to Price-Watchâ„¢ , The price trend of RB1 grade coal from South Africa rose by 1.7% in Q4 2025, primarily supported by consistent export demand from Asian power plants seeking reliable winter heating supplies and improved rail connectivity to Richards Bay port reducing bottlenecks.

Indian utilities increased purchases ahead of seasonal peak consumption, while weather-related delays from competing suppliers like Colombia created favorable market tightness. Capesize vessel availability remained constrained for long-haul routes to China, supporting freight-adjusted premiums. Domestic mine productivity benefited from stable rainfall patterns avoiding flood disruptions.

RB1 coal prices from South Africa rose by 5.4% in December 2025 as power sector contracts locked in shipments early, moderating spot market activity. Traders focused on fulfilling term commitments over aggressive bidding, while European buyers maintained steady background interest.

Coal price RB2 (5500 NAR) FOB Richards Bay, South Africa

The price trend of RB2 grade coal from South Africa rose by 3.1% in Q4 2025, driven by robust demand from Pakistan’s cement kilns expanding capacity and domestic Eskom power stations achieving better generation stability despite intermittent load shedding challenges.

Low-sulfur specifications attracted European industrial users avoiding Russian coal amid geopolitical shifts, while competitive freight rates outperformed Australian thermal alternatives on Middle East routes. Favorable dry season conditions enhanced open-pit mine efficiencies across Mpumalanga operations. RB2 coal prices from South Africa rose by 6.4% in December 2025 as cement manufacturers restocked ahead of Ramadan construction peaks. Bulk terminal bookings firmed up January sailings, reducing immediate spot availability without sparking panic buying.

Coking coal PHCC FOB Hay Point, Australia

The price trend of PHCC premium hard coking coal from Australia surged by 9.4% in Q4 2025, propelled by aggressive Indian steel mill imports ahead of government quota restrictions and Chinese blast furnace restarts following extended maintenance schedules. Monsoon disruptions in alternative premium suppliers like Mozambique tightened high-CSR quality availability, while Queensland rail washouts delayed competing lower-spec tonnages.

Exceptional free-swelling index metrics commanded peak market premia from optimizing steelmakers. PHCC coal prices from Australia rose by 8.0% in December 2025 as steel producers secured January-quarter cargoes amid rallying Dalian futures positioning. Port inventories drew down steadily, reinforcing supplier pricing power through year-end.

Coking coal PCI FOB Hay Point, Australia

The price trend of PCI coal from Australia declined by 1.8% in Q4 2025, pressured by abundant US thermal coal serving as economical pulverized coal injection substitutes and heavily discounted Russian volumes capturing Southeast Asian steel contracts. Prolonged wet season logistics hampered efficient evacuations from Bowen Basin complexes, while inconsistent yield recoveries from coal preparation plants eroded competitive quality premia.

Squeezed steel mill profitability prompted selective PCI blend reductions favoring cheaper alternatives. However, PCI coal prices from Australia rose by 5.2% in December 2025 as buyers gradually shifted toward more economical lower-specification injection fuels. Secondary market activity remained subdued ahead of Chinese New Year factory slowdowns.

Coal price thermal coal (4200 GAR) FOB Kalimantan, Indonesia

The price trend of 4200 GAR thermal coal from Indonesia climbed by 10.4% in Q4 2025, boosted by Chinese thermal power stations ramping output to offset natural gas supply shortfalls and Indian cement plants accelerating expansions post-festive season recovery. Geared bulk carrier availability tightened significantly for Kalimantan mine-to-port movements, elevating FOB Kalimantan basis values above regional benchmarks.

Localized flooding across East Kalimantan concessions temporarily curtailed high-strip-ratio pit advancements. 4200 GAR coal prices from Indonesia fell by 1.9% in December 2025 as regional power utilities preemptively covered anticipated dry season generation requirements. Spot tender activity intensified across Java power complexes seeking forward cover.

Coal price thermal coal (3400 GAR) FOB Kalimantan, Indonesia

The price trend of 3400 GAR thermal coal from Indonesia increased by 5.5% in Q4 2025, lifted by Pakistani independent power producers rebuilding working inventories and Bangladesh utility stabilization following monsoon flood disruptions. Competitive calorific values drew Vietnamese industrial coal consumers avoiding premium Australian pricing, while Sumatra riverine barge capacity constraints amplified availability premia for smaller-lot cargoes.

Regional electricity tariff adjustments stimulated incremental industrial consumption patterns. 3400 GAR coal prices from Indonesia rose by 0.3% in December 2025 with independent power producer contracts steadily absorbing available spot market volumes. Domestic trucking rates firmed modestly ahead of Ramadan factory restarts.

Met Coke (BF 25-90 mm) Ex-East Coast, India

The price trend of met coke in India rose by 5.0% in Q4 2025, triggered by exhaustion of low-ash metallurgical coke import quotas redirecting premium Australian volumes profitably and domestic direct reduced iron producers initiating blast furnace conversion trials. Monsoon-delayed merchant pig iron operations generated substantial catch-up consumption requirements, while coastal steelmakers like Tata absorbed redirected Chinese-origin tonnages.

Stringent Chinese export licensing positioned India as preferred alternative destination. Met coke prices in India rose by 0.6% in December 2025 as primary steel producers secured first-quarter requirements ahead of Chinese New Year production pauses. Battery limitations at Mundra and Vizag terminals created localized stock premia.

Coal Price Trend Q1 2024

The first quarter of 2024 opened with significant bearish sentiment across major coal markets globally, reflecting a substantial correction from the elevated levels witnessed in late 2023. South African coal markets experienced pronounced downward pressure as global demand moderated, and supply chains normalized following previous disruptions.

Indonesian coal demonstrated resilience with relatively stable conditions, though still facing minor downward adjustments as Asian buyers adopted cautious procurement strategies amid uncertain economic outlook. Australian coal markets encountered substantial headwinds with considerable price corrections, primarily driven by reduced Chinese demand and increased competition from alternative suppliers.

The Indian market showed the most dramatic adjustment with steep price declines, reflecting domestic policy shifts toward renewable energy, reduced import dependency, and improved domestic production capacity. Overall market sentiment remained cautious as traders anticipated further demand softening amid global economic uncertainties and accelerating energy transition policies.

In Q1 2024, Indian coal prices dropped sharply to $400/MT from $507/MT in Q4 2023, representing a steep quarter-on-quarter decline of approximately 21%. This significant price correction was primarily due to a surge in domestic coal production, which reached record highs as India pushed to boost self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on imports. The government’s aggressive output targets led to ample supply, easing pressure on prices.

Power demand remained robust, but the well-supplied market gave buyers more bargaining power, resulting in softer pricing. Market sentiment was stable, with industry participants confident that domestic production would continue to meet growing energy needs, further supporting India’s energy security goals.

Coal Price Trend Q2 2024

The second quarter marked a period of tentative recovery and market stabilization as seasonal demand patterns began to emerge. South African coal showed signs of revival with notable price improvements, driven by renewed European demand as utilities prepared for potential energy security challenges and summer cooling requirements.

Indonesian supplies maintained their competitive edge with modest further price adjustments, as producers optimized output levels to match subdued but steady Asian demand, particularly from India and other Southeast Asian markets.

Australian coal continued to face challenging conditions with further significant price declines, as the market grappled with structural shifts in traditional demand patterns and increased renewable energy adoption by key importing nations.

Indian coal markets demonstrated stabilization with marginal price increases, supported by domestic industrial recovery and monsoon-related supply concerns that encouraged strategic stockpiling by power generators.

Market participants expressed cautious optimism while closely monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impact on global energy trade flows.

In Q2 2024, coal prices in India edged up slightly to $405/MT, a modest 1.2% increase from the previous quarter. This minor rebound was attributed to seasonal factors, such as the onset of summer and increased electricity consumption, which drove up demand for thermal coal. Despite the continued strength in domestic production, logistical challenges and intermittent weather disruptions affected the coal movement, supporting a mild price recovery.

The market remained balanced, with utilities and industrial users maintaining healthy stockpiles. Sentiment was cautiously optimistic, as stakeholders anticipated steady demand but were mindful of the government’s ongoing push to keep supplies ample and prices in check

Coal Price Trend Q3 2024

The third quarter witnessed mixed market dynamics as regional factors began to dominate global coal trade patterns. South African producers benefited from continued price strengthening, reflecting sustained European demand driven by energy security concerns and industrial recovery in key markets. Indonesian coal faced persistent downward pressure with further price erosion, as increased competition from other regional suppliers and environmental regulations in key importing countries dampened long-term demand prospects.

Australian coal markets showed signs of stabilization with modest price improvements after previous quarters’ steep declines, though sentiment remained fragile due to ongoing trade relationship complexities and structural demand shifts.

India maintained its steady trajectory with slight price increases, supported by robust domestic economic growth, industrial expansion, and strategic inventory building ahead of the peak demand season.

Market sentiment reflected growing recognition of coal’s transitional role in energy security, even as long-term renewable energy commitments continued to shape procurement strategies across major consuming regions.

Q3 2024 saw Indian coal prices rise marginally again to $407/MT, a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter increase. The price uptick was largely seasonal, as the monsoon period typically disrupts mining and transport, creating short-term supply constraints. Despite these challenges, India’s coal output stayed strong, with the government and private sector working to minimize disruptions and ensure steady supplies.

The market sentiment was generally steady, with buyers and producers alike expecting prices to remain range bound as long as production targets were met, and demand growth stayed consistent.

Coal Price Trend Q4 2024

The final quarter of 2024 presented a complex market landscape with varying regional performances reflecting divergent supply-demand fundamentals. South African coal experienced slight price moderation after previous gains, as winter demand in the Northern Hemisphere normalized and buyers completed seasonal stockpiling activities.

Indonesian markets showed marginal price recovery following sustained pressure in earlier quarters, benefiting from year-end restocking activities and improved demand from power generation sectors across Asia.

Australian coal faced continued substantial declines with further significant price corrections, highlighting ongoing structural challenges including reduced Chinese imports, increased domestic renewable capacity in key markets, and growing environmental restrictions on coal trade.

Indian coal markets witnessed notable price declines as domestic production reached new highs, government policies favored local sourcing, and import dependency decreased significantly. The quarter concluded with mixed sentiment as market participants weighed short-term seasonal factors against long-term structural trends toward cleaner energy alternatives, while geopolitical tensions continued to influence trade patterns and energy security considerations globally.

In Q4 2024, Indian coal prices fell to $385/MT, marking a 5.4% decrease from the previous quarter. The end of the monsoon season allowed mining activity to fully resume, leading to increased supply and easing previous constraints. Additionally, utilities had built up significant inventories ahead of the festival and winter season, reducing spot market demand.

Market sentiment was neutral to slightly bearish, as producers faced pressure to maintain sales in an environment of abundant supply and moderate demand. The focus shifted towards export opportunities and cost optimization to sustain profitability.

Technical Specifications of Coal Price Trends

Product Description

Coal is a solid fossil fuel formed from the remains of ancient plants subjected to heat and pressure over millions of years. It is primarily composed of carbon, along with varying amounts of hydrogen, sulphur, oxygen, and nitrogen.

Identifiers and Classification:

  • HS Code – 27011200


Coal Grades Specific Price Assessment:

  • Coal Thermal Coal (RB2) Indonesia Price Trend
  • Coal Thermal Coal (RB1) Indonesia Price Trend
  • Coal 4200 GAR Indonesia Price Trend
  • Coal 3400 GAR Indonesia Price Trend
  • Australia PHCC coking coal Price Trend
  • Australia PCI coking coal Price Trend
  • India Met coke Price Trend


Coal Global Trade and Shipment Terms

  • Quotation Terms: 4000-5000 MT
  • Packaging Type: Bulk


Incoterms Referenced in Coal Price Reporting

Shipping Term  Location  Definition 
FOB Richards Bay  Richards Bay, South Africa  Export Price of Thermal Coal from South Africa 
FOB Kalimantan  Kalimantan, Indonesia  Export Price of Thermal Coal from Indonesia 
FOB Hay point  Hay Point, Australia  Export Price of Coking Coal from Australia 
Ex- east India  East India  Domestically Traded Met coke price in East India 

*Quotation Terms refers to the quantity range specified for the Coal being quoted or offered in a commercial transaction.

**Packaging Type refers to standard packaging size commonly used for Coal packing, ease of handling, transportation, and storage in industrial and commercial applications.


Key Coal Manufacturers

Manufacturers 
China Shenhua Energy 
Coal India Limited (CIL) 
BHP Group 
Glencore 
China Energy Investment Corporation (CEIC) 
Rio Tinto 
Anglo American plc 
Peabody Energy 

Coal Industrial Applications

Coal Market Share end use

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Coal prices

  • Impact on Investment and Financing: Elevated interest rates globally, particularly in major economies like the U.S. and Europe, made financing more expensive for businesses.
  • Global Supply Chain Disruption (2022): The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions disrupted supply chains, leading to price volatility in various commodities, including coal.
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2019-2020): The global pandemic led to a significant decline in demand for coal-intensive industries, such as steelmaking and automotive manufacturing, causing prices to plummet.
  • Global Economic Downturn (2019-2020): The global economic slowdown, particularly in sectors like steel and automotive, led to reduced demand for coal, resulting in lower prices.

These events underscore the coal market’s vulnerability to global disruptions and highlight the need for continuous monitoring of supply-demand dynamics.

Why Price Watchâ„¢?

Price Watchâ„¢ is your trusted resource for tracking global coal price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the coal market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, Price Watchâ„¢ keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, Price Watch™ provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With Price Watch™, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence coal prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with Price Watch’s™ reliable, accurate, and timely coal market data.

Track Price Watch'sâ„¢ coal price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Coal Market Price Trend published by Price Watchâ„¢ reflect prevailing spot market conditions, derived from independent research, verified trade inputs, and proprietary market intelligence as of the publication date. Prices are published on the specified Incoterm and represent indicative base market levels, exclusive of applicable taxes, VAT, duties, tariffs, and other statutory charges. Actual transaction values may vary depending on volume, credit terms, contractual structure, and other negotiated conditions. Market prices are inherently subject to volatility, liquidity dynamics, regulatory changes, and evolving trade activity. The information provided is for reference and benchmarking purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or guarantee of transactional outcomes. Users should exercise independent commercial judgment and assess their specific contractual, regulatory, tax, and application requirements before making business decisions. Price Watchâ„¢ assumes no liability for decisions taken based on this information.

Commodity prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including:

 Production cost: Production costs directly influence commodity prices. When production expenses rise, such as through higher raw material or labor costs, commodity prices typically increase. Conversely, lower production cost leads to reduced prices of particular commodity.

Supply and Demand: The fundamental driver of commodity prices is the balance between supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise, and vice versa.  

Economic Growth: Global economic growth, particularly in emerging markets, can increase demand for commodities, driving prices higher.  

Geopolitical Events: Political instability, conflicts, and trade tensions can disrupt supply chains, affecting commodity prices.  

Natural Disasters: Weather events such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes can impact the production and availability of certain commodities.  

Speculation: Financial speculators can influence commodity prices through their trading activities.  

Government Policies: Government policies, such as tariffs, subsidies, and regulations, can impact the production, consumption, and trade of commodities.  

 PriceWatch, a leading procurement intelligence firm, offers a comprehensive suite of tools and services to help you effectively track commodity prices.

Some of the key benefits of using PriceWatch include:

 Real-time Data: Access to up-to-date market intelligence and data on commodity supply chains.

Expert Analysis: Insights from industry experts to interpret market trends and identify potential risks.

Risk Assessment: Tools to assess supply chain vulnerabilities and develop mitigation strategies.

Benchmarking: Comparisons of commodity prices and sourcing practices to optimize procurement decisions.

Supplier Intelligence: Detailed information on suppliers, including their financial health, production capacity, and sustainability practices.

Coal is a fossil fuel used for power generation, steel production, cement manufacturing, and industrial heating. Its price affects electricity costs, steel manufacturing expenses, and energy-intensive industries worldwide. Price-Watchâ„¢ tracks these prices to help businesses and consumers understand and stay updated with the market trends.

Coal prices vary by type (thermal, coking, PCI), quality (GAR, CV, ash, sulfur), and origin (South Africa RB1/RB2, Australia PHCC, Indonesia 4200 GAR). Prices are typically quoted per metric ton and fluctuate based on global supply, import/export flows, industrial demand, and currency exchange rates. Price-Watchâ„¢ provides real-time price assessments across different global markets to help buyers and sellers make informed decisions.

Prices fluctuate due to power plant demand, steel production volumes, weather patterns, mine output, shipping availability, and government energy policies. Exchange rates, logistics costs, and global economic conditions also influence trends.

Major consumers include power generation, steelmaking (coking coal, PCI, met coke), cement production, and industrial boilers. Price-Watchâ„¢ analyses demand patterns across all these industries.

Coal is mined from surface or underground operations, processed through washing/crushing plants, and shipped via rail, barge, or bulk carriers to power plants, steel mills, and industrial users.

Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, while Australia leads premium coking coal exports. Other key exporters include South Africa, Russia, and Colombia. Export volumes vary with domestic policies, environmental regulations, and international demand. Price-Watchâ„¢ tracks production levels, export flows and trade patterns to help businesses understand global supply chains and identify sourcing opportunities.

Supply generally meets demand, but disruptions may occur due to mine floods, port strikes, rail bottlenecks, or power plant policy changes. Price-Watchâ„¢ monitors these supply-demand imbalances to alert the market about potential shortages or surpluses.

Grades include thermal coal (3400-4200 GAR for power), coking coal (PHCC, PCI for steel), anthracite, and met coke prices vary by calorific value, ash/sulfur content, moisture, volatility, and steelmaking quality metrics. Price-Watchâ„¢ provides separate price assessments for each grade to ensure market transparency.

When demand rises, for example from winter power peaks or steel production surges, prices typically climb. Suppliers may prioritize certain customers, and lead times can extend. Price-Watchâ„¢ captures these market dynamics in real-time.

Coal mining and transportation use diesel, electricity, and explosives extensively. Rising fuel prices increase production costs that get passed to buyers. This is why prices from regions with cheaper energy tend to be lower, a correlation that Price-Watchâ„¢ analyses in its price assessments & market reports.

Regional variations arise from import dependency, shipping costs, currency fluctuations, local power demand, and quality specifications. Price-Watchâ„¢ tracks prices across all major regions to highlight these differences.

Forecasts depend on power generation trends, steel production capacity, weather forecasts, mine expansions, and energy transition policies. Price-Watchâ„¢ regularly publishes detailed forecasts that project price movements for the next 12 months based on comprehensive analysis of supply additions, demand growth in key industries, seasonal patterns, and macroeconomic indicators. Our forecasts help businesses anticipate market conditions and plan accordingly.

Yes. Accurate forecasts allow businesses to optimize purchasing, negotiate contracts, and manage inventories. If Price-Watchâ„¢ forecasts predict a price increase in three months, you might choose to stock up now or lock in long-term contracts at current rates, potentially saving thousands of dollars.

Events such as mine floods, typhoons, port strikes, Chinese steel quotas, or renewable energy policy shifts can cause supply shortages and price volatility. Price-Watchâ„¢ provides timely alerts when such events affect the market.

Price-Watchâ„¢ collects data from manufacturers, distributors, and buyers worldwide to publish regular price assessments, market reports, and forecasts. Our transparent methodology and comprehensive coverage make us a trusted source for understanding fair pricing and market trends in the Coal industry.

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