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United KingdomThe ethanol market is projected to experience significant price fluctuations in the fourth quarter of 2024. Factors such as the increased demand for higher ethanol blends during the winter months, the prevailing corn prices, the availability of feedstocks, and the overall economic climate will all contribute to the market’s volatility. While the potential for higher prices exists due to increased ethanol demand and potential cost pressures, the actual trajectory of the market will be determined by the complex interplay of these factors.
The U.S. ethanol market displayed significant fluctuations in July 2024, shaped by various market dynamics and overarching economic conditions. After an upward trajectory noted in the second quarter, ethanol prices initially increased but later experienced a downturn. U.S. ethanol prices saw a 1.4% rise during the first week of July, only to subsequently forfeit those gains. Throughout this timeframe, the U.S. Ethanol market exhibited a mixed performance, affected by both market conditions and seasonal influences. Looking forward, it is anticipated that ethanol prices will continue to be volatile, driven by changing corn prices, seasonal ethanol demand trends, and innovations in production technologies.
The North American ethanol market experienced a notable rise in ethanol prices during the second quarter of 2024, attributed to a variety of factors. These factors included escalating corn prices, surging energy expenditures, heightened demand for summer driving purposes, and the potential impact of regulatory measures. Within the United States, the ethanol market witnessed the most significant fluctuations, with a substantial increase of approximately 13% observed from the preceding quarter. The increase was primarily driven by the summer travel period and the needs of the manufacturing industry.
As the leading global ethanol producer, the United States encountered substantial challenges within the ethanol market during the initial two months of 2024. These challenges manifested in a persistent decline in US Ethanol prices. This decline was attributed to a reduction in Ethanol demand, both domestically and internationally. Additionally, the off-season in Europe and a decline in the transportation sector exacerbated the decrease in Ethanol consumption. Furthermore, the availability of abundant feedstock post-harvest season led to an increase in ethanol production, which in turn resulted in elevated inventory levels.
PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global ethanol price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the ethanol market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.
In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence ethanol prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely ethanol market data.
Track PriceWatch's ethanol price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.
Due to worldwide lockdowns and a significant drop in fuel demand, many ethanol manufacturers shifted their focus to producing hand sanitizer and industrial alcohol. At the height of the crisis, more than 50% of the industry’s capacity was closed, with approximately 75% of ethanol facilities either offline or functioning at lower output levels.
As the sector starts to bounce back from the demand losses caused by COVID-19, U.S. ethanol production has risen by 8% compared to levels seen in 2020.
Acknowledging ethanol’s potential to enhance domestic fuel supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EPA has granted emergency waivers that lift the summertime restrictions on E15, permitting its sale throughout the year. This legislation also allocates funding for the infrastructure needed for higher-blend biofuels and extends several existing tax credits related to biofuels
In Europe, ethanol prices were affected by several factors, including Year-end destocking, Reduced cargo rates, Rising corn and energy prices, Record sugarcane output in Belgium, Global crop consumption and production adjustments, and Delays in biofuel production.
In Brazil, ethanol prices are expected to increase in May and June due to reduced sugarcane harvesting and increased demand for gasoline blending. Prices are also expected to rise in July as the sugarcane harvest season begins.
This research methodology ensures that Price-Watch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Ethanol pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.
Molecular Weight[g/mol]
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HS Code
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Incoterms Used
Synonym
PriceWatch Quotation Terms:
Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.
| Physical state | liquid |
| Colour | colourless |
| Odour | like: – alcohol |
| Melting point/freezing point | -114 °C |
| Boiling point or initial boiling point and boiling range | 78 °C at 1.013 hPa |
| Flammability | flammable liquid in accordance with GHS criteria |
| Lower and upper explosion limit | 3,1 vol% (LEL) – 27,7 vol% (UEL) |
| Flash point | 12 °C (c.c.) |
| Auto-ignition temperature | 455 °C at 1.013 Pa |
| pH (value) | 7 (20 °C) |
| Kinematic viscosity | 1,519 mm²/s at 20 °C |
| Dynamic viscosity | 1,2 mPa s at 20 °C |
| Water solubility | ≥1.000 g/l at 20 °C |
| Partition coefficient n-octanol/water (log value) | 0,31 |
| Vapour pressure | 59 hPa at 20 °C |
| Density | 0,81 g/cm³ at 20 °C |
Applications
Its primary uses involve industries like fuel blending, solvent production, and the manufacturing of plastics, synthetic rubber, and other chemicals.
Ethanol Pricing Factors: Corn prices, demand (influenced by gasoline prices and government policies), and supply (affected by plant capacity and disruptions) are key determinants of ethanol pricing. To predict future trends, monitor these factors closely and consider consulting with industry experts.
Negotiating Ethanol Pricing: Leverage market knowledge, explore long-term contracts, consider alternative sources, and build strong relationships with suppliers to negotiate favourable ethanol pricing Leverage market knowledge: Understand current market conditions and benchmark prices to negotiate fair terms.
Explore long-term contracts: Consider long-term contracts to secure stable pricing and potentially negotiate volume discounts.
Consider alternative sources: Evaluate options like imported ethanol or alternative feedstocks to increase your bargaining power.
Build strong relationships: Nurture relationships with suppliers to foster trust and potentially negotiate more favourable terms.
Ethanol Procurement Risks and Mitigation: Address price volatility, supply disruptions, and quality concerns through hedging, diversification, and quality control measures.
Price volatility: Fluctuations in corn prices and ethanol demand can lead to price volatility.
Supply disruptions: Issues like plant closures, transportation problems, or natural disasters can disrupt ethanol supply.
Quality concerns: Ensuring ethanol meets required specifications is crucial for avoiding quality-related issues.
Mitigation strategies include:
Hedging: Use financial instruments like futures contracts to manage price risk.
Diversification: Source ethanol from multiple suppliers to reduce supply chain risks.
Quality control: Implement rigorous quality testing and inspection procedures.
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