Ethanol Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 15101802
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âźł Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026

ethanol Price Trends by Country

usUnited States
brBrazil
saSaudi Arabia
coColombia
krSouth Korea
twTaiwan
beBelgium
nlNetherlands
thThailand
inIndia
egEgypt
idIndonesia
pePeru
gbUnited Kingdom
mxMexico
phPhilippines
deGermany
clChile
caCanada
jpJapan
sgSingapore

ethanol Pricing Trends in India: 

Global ethanol Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast​

Ethanol Price Trend Q3 2025

In Q3 2025, the global Ethanol market exhibited a firm upward trend driven by resilient international demand, tightening inventories, and stable freight conditions. In the United States, prices advanced steadily through the quarter as strong export momentum and consistent industrial consumption supported market strength.

Similarly, Brazil recorded sustained ethanol price gains amid limited production due to a constrained harvest season and active buying interest from Asia and Latin America. Both regions maintained positive sentiment supported by steady procurement activity and balanced supply fundamentals. Elevated ethanol price levels are expected to persist into the next quarter, with continued firmness anticipated across major exporting regions.

Thailand

Ethanol import prices CIF LAEM CHABANG, USA, Grade Anhydrous.

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Thailand demonstrated a steady upward trajectory supported by firm export demand, tightening US feedstock supplies, and strong market fundamentals. Ethanol Prices progressively increased from July through September as corn-based production costs and FOB quotations in the USA trended higher, reflecting constrained availability and seasonal demand in both domestic and Southeast Asian markets.

Throughout the quarter, freight charges remained largely stable, ensuring consistent logistics and moderating sharp cost escalations despite strong export momentum. Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 736–830 per metric ton, marking a cumulative quarterly gain driven by increasing FOB values and limited supply. Import inquiries across the region remained active, reinforcing competitive market conditions.

Overall, the quarter concluded In September 2025, Ethanol prices with a +9.93%, underscoring the sustained bullish sentiment in the US-origin ethanol market. Short-term procurement opportunities are advised to be secured early, as continued FOB strength and regional demand are expected to maintain upward price pressure into the next quarter.

Egypt

Ethanol import prices CIF Alexandria, USA, Grade Anhydrous.

In Q3 2025, Ethanol price in Egypt followed a firm upward trajectory, supported by ongoing export demand, restricted US corn feedstock, and solid market fundamentals. Prices moved consistently higher from July through September as FOB quotations in the USA strengthened amid tight supply availability and active competition from international buyers.

Seasonal demand patterns added further support to pricing, while steady import volumes reflected continued procurement momentum in the Egyptian market. Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 647-855 per metric ton, securing a cumulative gain driven by higher FOB values and constrained US exports. Buyer activity remained strong, with competitive market dynamics influencing transaction speeds and securing supply positions.

Overall, the quarter closed In September 2025, Ethanol prices with a +9.52% rise, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in US-origin ethanol for Egyptian buyers. Prompt procurement is recommended as sustained export strength and disciplined US supply allocation are expected to maintain firm pricing into the upcoming quarter.

Belgium

Ethanol import prices CIF Antwerp, Grade Anhydrous (USA & Brazil Origin).

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Belgium imported from both the USA and Brazil exhibited a firm upward momentum, reflecting global supply constraints and consistent industrial demand across Europe. US-origin ethanol prices advanced steadily through the quarter as rising corn feedstock costs and tighter supply allocation pushed FOB prices higher.

Brazilian-origin shipments similarly strengthened, supported by seasonal production limits and steady export interest from European buyers. Industrial consumption from chemical and blending sectors further sustained the regional price trend, keeping procurement activity firm throughout the period.

For US-origin ethanol, import prices ranged between USD 602-805 per metric ton, registering a cumulative quarterly increase driven by limited supply and firm export allocation from US producers. Brazilian-origin ethanol showed similar strength, with Ethanol price trend spanning USD 755-925 per metric ton throughout the quarter, influenced by tight shipping schedules and moderated freight reductions early in the period.

Overall, the quarter ended In September 2025, Ethanol prices with a significant +10.95% increase for US-origin and +7.32% for Brazil-origin Ethanol. The continued firmness in CIF Antwerp prices reflected strong export fundamentals from both origins, alongside persistent buyer activity in the European market. Procurement should be planned proactively as global feedstock tightness and export prioritization are expected to sustain elevated pricing levels into the next quarter.

Colombia

Ethanol import prices CIF Barranquilla, USA, Grade  Anhydrous

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Colombia registered a strong upward momentum, driven by firm global demand and tightening supply conditions in the United States. Prices moved consistently higher from July through September as constrained corn-based feedstock and elevated production costs supported stronger FOB quotations.

Colombian buyers displayed active procurement interest throughout the quarter, maintaining steady import flow amid a competitive market landscape. Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 654-925 per metric ton, reflecting a notable quarterly increase. The sharp jump in September was particularly influenced by stronger Colombian inquiries and limited allocation from US exporters, resulting in elevated landed costs.

Firm regional demand and consistent trading activity further reinforced upward pricing sentiment. The quarter concluded In September 2025, Ethanol prices with a substantial +17.57% rise, marking one of the strongest quarterly gains among major ethanol-importing regions. Prompt procurement is recommended as persistent logistical challenges and firm export prices are expected to sustain elevated CIF levels into the next quarter.

South Korea

Ethanol import prices CIF Busan, Grade Anhydrous (USA & Brazil Origin).

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in South Korea showed consistent upward momentum, supported by firm market fundamentals, steady Asian demand, and tightening supply from both the USA and Brazil. Buyers actively secured volumes throughout the quarter as regional blending and industrial requirements maintained solid import interest. The firm global demand for biofuels and consistent feedstock tightening across origin markets added further bullish pressure on price movements.

For US-origin ethanol price trend ranged between USD 617-820 per metric ton during the quarter, marking a significant cumulative increase driven by higher FOB quotations and limited allocation from US producers. Brazilian-origin ethanol followed a similar trend, with prices between USD 727 – 880 per metric ton, supported by steady FOB strength and controlled export supply to Asian destinations.

Competitive buying behaviour and stable freight dynamics contributed to sustaining firm CIF pricing across the quarter. In September 2025, Ethanol prices concluded with an increase of +10.71% for US-origin and +6.33% for Brazil-origin deliveries, underscoring the strong regional price sentiment. Importers are advised to finalize procurement early, as constrained supply conditions and sustained export demand are expected to maintain firm price levels into the next quarter.

Peru

Ethanol import prices CIF Callao, USA, Grade Anhydrous.

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Peru recorded a firm upward trend, driven by tightening US supply and sustained industrial demand across Latin America. Prices moved steadily higher through the quarter as stronger FOB values in the USA reflected constrained corn feedstock availability and elevated production costs.

Peruvian importers remained active throughout the quarter, maintaining stable procurement momentum even as US exporters limited spot allocations to balance regional commitments. Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 707-925 per metric ton during the quarter, marking a successive monthly rise supported by firm FOB benchmarks and consistent buying interest. Stable freight conditions allowed landed costs to reflect the direct influence of U.S. export tightness and elevated production economics.

In September 2025, Ethanol prices had increased by +9.43%, underscoring a bullish quarterly trajectory. Continued short-term firmness is expected as Latin American demand and limited US supply maintain upward pressure on CIF prices. Importers are advised to secure volumes promptly in anticipation of sustained market strength into the following quarter.

Germany

Ethanol import prices CIF Hamburg, USA, Grade Anhydrous

In Q3 2025, Ethanol price in Germany maintained a firm upward trajectory, reflecting strong US FOB market conditions and consistent European industrial demand. Prices increased steadily from July to September, supported by tighter corn feedstock availability in the United States and elevated production costs.

The German import market saw active procurement and robust trading interest, sustaining price strength throughout the quarter. Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 603-810 per metric ton during the period, marking a continuous monthly increase driven by higher FOB offers and limited spot supply from the US.

Freight rates remained broadly stable, ensuring price movements were primarily influenced by origin-market fundamentals and competitive buying across European destinations. In September 2025, Ethanol prices had increased +10.95%, highlighting firm pricing momentum in the US-origin ethanol market. Importers are advised to secure short-term volumes as persistent demand and tight export allocation are expected to maintain elevated CIF levels into the next quarter.

United Kingdom

Ethanol import prices CIF Immingham, USA, Grade Anhydrous

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in the United Kingdom showed a consistent upward trend, supported by firm US FOB pricing, stronger industrial demand, and tightening feedstock availability. Prices advanced steadily through the quarter as elevated production costs driven by limited corn supply and consistent US export commitments sustained bullish sentiment.

UK import demand remained stable, with active buying interest maintaining firm market fundamentals throughout the period. Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 642-865 per metric ton, marking a notable monthly progression driven by higher FOB quotations and tight producer allocation. Stable freight conditions contributed to smoother import operations and sustained competitive momentum among buyers.

In September 2025, Ethanol price had recorded a rise of +10.34%, reflecting strong importer interest and restricted supply from the US. Continued firmness in CIF levels is expected into the next quarter, with buyers advised to secure forward shipments early to mitigate potential cost escalation amid persistent supply constraints.

Indonesia

Ethanol import prices CIF Jakarta, USA, Grade Anhydrous.

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Indonesia showed a steady upward trend, supported by firm US FOB pricing, restricted corn feedstock supply, and consistent regional demand. Prices increased progressively from July through September as production costs in the USA stayed elevated and export allocations remained tight.

Indonesian buyers actively engaged in procurement during the quarter, ensuring stable import momentum amid competitive market dynamics. Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 690-930 per metric ton, reflecting sustained monthly gains driven by FOB market strength and limited US-origin availability.

Active buyer interest and consistent consumption patterns maintained firm price levels throughout the quarter. In September 2025, Ethanol price had recorded an +8.97% rise, underscoring the ongoing bullish sentiment in the US-origin ethanol market for Indonesia. Short-term procurement is recommended as continued regional demand and constrained US supply are expected to uphold strong CIF pricing into the next quarter.

Saudi Arabia

Ethanol import prices CIF Jeddah, USA, Grade Anhydrous.

In Q3 2025, Ethanol price in Saudi Arabia showed a robust upward trajectory, supported by firm global demand and tightening supply from the United States. Prices advanced steadily from July through September as elevated FOB quotations, arising from constrained corn feedstock and limited export availability, influenced delivered values.

Market activity remained strong as importers actively secured volumes in response to tightening regional supply and sustained industrial consumption. Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 630-855 per metric ton across the quarter, marking a cumulative increase led by firmer FOB levels and stable freight conditions. The combination of strong international buying interest and disciplined US export allocation contributed to the market’s bullish outlook.

Competitive import demand further reinforced pricing momentum throughout the period. In September 2025, Ethanol prices had climbed by +10.42%, signalling intensified procurement activity and constrained origin availability. Buyers are advised to book short-term requirements promptly, as limited US export capacity and persistent regional demand are projected to sustain firm CIF pricing into the next quarter.

Taiwan

Ethanol import prices CIF Kaohsiung, USA, Grade Anhydrous.

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Taiwan maintained a steady upward trend, supported by firm US FOB values, tighter corn feedstock availability, and sustained industrial demand across the region. Prices recorded consistent monthly increases from July through September, reflecting higher production costs in the United States and controlled export allocations.

Taiwanese importers remained active during the quarter, ensuring stable trading volumes amid rising global pricing pressure. Ethanol price trend ranged between USD per metric ton, marking a firm quarterly uptrend driven primarily by FOB strength and stable freight dynamics. Strong regional procurement and limited export availability from the US reinforced firm offers throughout the period, keeping market sentiment bullish.

In September 2025, ethanol prices advanced by +8.86%, emphasizing continued supply constraints and robust industrial demand in the Asia-Pacific region. Buyers are advised to secure near-term volumes promptly as persistent US supply tightness and steady regional consumption are expected to sustain elevated CIF pricing into the next quarter.

Philippines

Ethanol import prices CIF Manila, Grade Anhydrous (USA & Brazil Origin).

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Philippines recorded consistent price increases supported by firm FOB levels from both the USA and Brazil, strong regional demand, and tightening feedstock availability. Prices rose steadily through the quarter as stable logistics and active buyer participation maintained firm market momentum.

Importers across the region showed heightened procurement interest, reflecting confidence in sustained price firmness amid tightening origin supply. For US-origin ethanol prices trend between USD 714-965 per metric ton, while Brazilian-origin ethanol traded between USD 694-910 per metric ton throughout the quarter.

The upward movement was driven by steady industrial and fuel blending demand alongside restrained export volumes from both origins. Competitive market dynamics and balanced freight conditions provided overall stability to delivered costs, supporting continuous purchasing momentum in the Philippine market.

In September 2025, ethanol prices had recorded quarterly increases of +9.43% for US-origin and +9.41% for Brazil-origin cargoes. Persistent supply constraints and robust industrial consumption are expected to sustain elevated CIF levels into the next quarter, encouraging buyers to secure short-term volumes proactively amid ongoing market tightness.

India

Ethanol import prices CIF Nhava Sheva, Grade Anhydrous (USA & Brazil Origin).

According to PriceWatch, in Q3 2025, Ethanol price in India exhibited a firm upward trend, supported by consistent industrial demand, tighter corn supply, and strengthening FOB values from both the USA and Brazil. Prices advanced steadily through the quarter, reflecting persistent global supply constraints and heightened regional buying interest.

Active import participation, combined with rising freight costs, especially on US-India routes, fuelled bullish sentiment in the Indian ethanol market. For US-origin ethanol price trend ranged between USD 750-930 per metric ton, representing a strong quarterly increase driven by tightening allocation, elevated freight surges, and sustained demand from downstream sectors.

Brazilian-origin ethanol followed a similar trajectory, with prices moving between USD 620-880 per metric ton during the quarter, influenced by limited export availability and ongoing Brazilian supply prioritization to regional buyers.

In September 2025, Ethanol prices had risen sharply, +14.40% for US-origin and +8.18% for Brazil-origin ethanol marking one of the strongest quarterly increases among major import hubs. Continued FOB firmness, restricted export supply, and steady Indian demand are projected to uphold elevated CIF levels into the next quarter, making early short-term procurement advisable to hedge against further upward pressure.

Singapore

Ethanol import prices CIF Port of Singapore, Grade Anhydrous (USA & Brazil Origin).

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Singapore recorded a sharp upward trajectory, with notable gains driven by higher FOB values from both the USA and Brazil, tight regional supply, and significant freight cost movements. Prices advanced steadily from July through September, supported by firm Southeast Asian demand and restricted export allocations at origin.

Strong procurement activity and competitive buying behaviour sustained market firmness throughout the quarter. For US-origin ethanol, prices ranged between USD 614-820 per metric ton, with the quarter’s gains heavily influenced by substantial freight surges and tightening product availability from the US Gulf export market. Brazilian-origin ethanol traded between USD 746-925 per metric ton, supported by restrained export flow and rising logistical expenses, especially into Southeast Asia.

In September 2025, ethanol prices had increased by +17.01% for US-origin shipments and +6.37% for Brazilian-origin deliveries, underscoring the combined impact of freight-driven cost escalation and supply constraints. Continued firm procurement demand and limited allocation capacity at origin are expected to sustain elevated CIF pricing into the next quarter, making early short-term coverage advisable.

Chile

Ethanol import prices CIF San Antonio, USA, Grade Anhydrous.

In Q3 2025, Ethanol price in Chile initially followed an upward trajectory through July and August, supported by firmer US FOB prices, steady demand, and tightening corn feedstock availability. Prices strengthened over these months as industrial procurement remained consistent and competitive buying activity reinforced CIF cost stability across the Chilean import market.

However, in September 2025, ethanol prices reversed sharply as US exporters engaged in aggressive de-stocking and offered discounts to clear excess inventories, resulting in a pronounced price drop. Ethanol import price trend during the quarter ranged between USD 655-865 per metric ton.

Japan

Ethanol import prices CIF Tokyo, Brazil, Grade Anhydrous.

According to PriceWatch, in Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Japan maintained a gradual but steady upward trajectory, supported by firm Brazilian FOB prices, consistent industrial demand, and constrained corn feedstock availability. Prices inched higher from July through August as balanced supply-demand conditions and stable buyer interest sustained market firmness. Slight freight cost reductions early in the quarter helped moderate CIF price pressures, keeping import flows steady.

In September 2025, ethanol price trend rose more sharply, closing the quarter between USD 730-895 per metric ton, with a +7.55% monthly gain driven by stronger Asian spot demand and restricted Brazilian export volumes. Higher freight rates later in the quarter amplified landed costs for Japanese buyers, adding to bullish sentiment.

Overall, the quarter reflected a controlled supply environment and competitive import activity. Buyers are advised to secure short-term volumes promptly, as both freight escalation and steady demand from regional markets are expected to maintain upward pressure on CIF Tokyo prices into the next quarter.

Mexico

Ethanol import prices CIF Veracruz, USA, Grade Anhydrous.

In Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in Mexico recorded a firm upward momentum, supported by active procurement, constrained US supply, and steady industrial demand. Prices posted consistent monthly gains from July through September as stronger FOB quotations in the United States reflected higher production costs driven by tightening corn feedstock availability. Mexican importers maintained steady purchase volumes through the quarter, encouraged by favourable logistics and a competitive yet tightening market environment.

Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 654-865 per metric ton, marking a sustained uptrend driven mainly by firm US export pricing and consistent regional demand. Stable freight throughout the quarter allowed CIF costs to directly mirror movements in FOB markets, supporting continuous import activity at elevated levels.

In September 2025, ethanol prices rose by +10.14%, highlighting firm export allocation control and robust market participation. Importers are advised to secure volumes promptly, as steady US export demand and limited supply availability are anticipated to maintain firm CIF levels into the next quarter.

United States

Ethanol export prices FOB Houston, Grade Anhydrous.

According to PriceWatch, in Q3 2025, Ethanol prices in USA displayed a consistent upward trajectory, supported by firm export demand, moderate feedstock cost pressure, and tightening inventory levels. Prices advanced steadily through the quarter as domestic blending requirements and strong international inquiries maintained active trade volumes. Stable freight conditions ensured smooth logistical flow, helping producers manage spot availability while reinforcing confidence in sustained price strength.

FOB Houston ethanol price Trend ranged between USD 553-755 per metric ton, marking a pronounced quarterly gain driven by steady industrial consumption and elevated export activity toward key markets in Latin America and Asia. Limited production flexibility amid robust short-term inquiries kept sellers in a favorable position.

In September 2025, Ethanol price had climbed by +11.81%, reflecting both supply discipline and heightened procurement interest. Continued firm sentiment is anticipated into the next quarter, with buyers advised to confirm cargoes early as sustained export traction and controlled domestic inventories are likely to uphold elevated FOB values.

Brazil

Ethanol export prices FOB Santos, Grade Anhydrous.

In Q3 2025, Ethanol price in Brazil followed a firm upward trajectory, supported by solid international demand, moderate corn and sugarcane cost pressures, and constrained production due to a limited harvest season. Prices advanced consistently from July through September as exporters benefited from steady industrial and energy sector consumption both domestically and abroad. Competitive buying interest, especially from Asia and Latin America, reinforced tight market conditions and sustained firm FOB values.

Ethanol price trend ranged between USD 670-830 per metric ton, reflecting a cumulative quarterly gain driven by healthy procurement from overseas buyers and stable freight conditions. The absence of significant changes in shipping costs kept delivered price stability intact, allowing FOB dynamics to align closely with production and demand fundamentals.

In September 2025, Ethanol price posted a quarterly increase of +7.48%, underscoring market firmness amid constrained supply. Buyers are advised to confirm near-term shipments early, as restricted output and active export programs are expected to preserve elevated price levels into the next quarter.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

In Q2 2025, the Ethanol market displayed tentative signs of stabilization, supported by a gradual improvement in domestic transportation fuel demand and renewed export opportunities into Latin American markets, particularly Brazil and Mexico. Seasonal blending demand in Europe provided marginal support, though the overall market remained constrained by sustained high production volumes from U.S. biorefineries, driven by ample corn feedstock availability and efficient operational rates. Competitive alternative fuels and subdued global energy price volatility continued to limit any significant upward momentum.

The quarter reflected a delicate balance between recovering consumption and persistent oversupply, resulting in only a modest recovery. According to PriceWatch, by the close of Q2 2025, Ethanol prices averaged USD 620.72 per metric ton FOB Houston.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2025

In Q1 2025, ethanol prices rebounded 6% to USD 613 per metric ton FOB US Gulf, supported by renewed export demand and stable domestic blending activity. US ethanol production and exports saw strong growth, with year-to-date production up 2% and exports up 6% from the previous year, driven by robust demand from Canada, the EU, UK, India, and Colombia.

Higher corn prices and energy costs contributed to a firmer cost base, but the ethanol market benefited from policy support for renewable fuels and favorable global trade dynamics. The quarter reflected a cautiously optimistic outlook, with the US ethanol market leveraging its competitive edge and export momentum to support higher pricing into 2025.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

Q4 2024 marked a strong downward correction in ethanol prices, with levels falling 13% to USD 576 per metric ton FOB US Gulf. The market faced renewed headwinds from global oversupply, softening international demand, and easing domestic consumption post-harvest. Elevated US inventories and increased competition from Brazilian exporters further weighed on export values. Although corn prices declined, offering some margin relief, the market saw narrowing profitability.

Despite record-high output and export volumes earlier in the year, the quarter highlighted ethanol’s sensitivity to demand shifts and reinforced the fragile balance between supply and pricing power.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q3 2024

Ethanol prices continued their upward trajectory in Q3 2024, rising a modest 3% to USD 663 per metric ton FOB US Gulf. The market remained supported by steady export flows and robust blending mandates across international markets. However, rising feedstock costs and logistical challenges put pressure on producer margins.

With higher corn prices and volatile energy costs, producers maintained disciplined output to align with market demand. Strong international buying interest particularly from India, the EU, and the UK continued to anchor US ethanol prices, cementing the country’s competitive export position.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2024

Ethanol prices rebounded in Q2 2024, climbing 14% to USD 642 per metric ton FOB US Gulf amid a seasonal boost in gasoline consumption and rising export interest. The North American summer driving season and regulatory support for biofuel blending drove increased ethanol demand.

However, elevated corn and energy prices raised production costs and compressed margins. Global buyers, especially from Europe and Asia, turned to US ethanol due to supply constraints elsewhere, helping to absorb excess domestic output and improve market sentiment.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2024

In Q1 2024, ethanol prices had averaged USD 564 per metric ton FOB US Gulf, reflecting a sharp 21% quarter-on-quarter decline. The downturn was fuelled by weak domestic and global demand, particularly from the transportation sector and off-season markets like Europe. Concurrently, high post-harvest feedstock availability led to robust US ethanol production and a buildup in inventories.

Coupled with declining corn prices and sluggish export activity, these factors exerted significant downward pressure on pricing and margins. The quarter highlighted the ethanol market’s vulnerability to global agricultural cycles and energy demand fluctuations.

India ethanol Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2025

In Q1 2025, according to PriceWatch, ethanol prices in India climbed 3% to USD 733 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA), reflecting robust demand from India’s ethanol market as the country accelerated its E20 blending mandate and industrial consumption remained strong. Higher global corn prices and a rebound in international freight rates contributed to the upward movement in ethanol pricing.

U.S. ethanol exports to India saw significant growth, with India ranking among the top five destinations for U.S. ethanol, supported by both policy-driven demand and ongoing domestic feedstock constraints. The quarter highlighted India’s reliance on imported ethanol to meet its ambitious blending targets and industrial needs, even as global market volatility and logistical costs continued to shape ethanol market dynamics.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

In Q2 2025, the Ethanol market faced renewed downward pressure as Asian demand weakened during the monsoon season, reducing import appetite in key markets like India. Competitive pricing from Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol further eroded U.S. exporters’ market share, intensifying price competition.

Despite the decline, U.S. biorefineries maintained high production levels, supported by favorable corn harvest conditions and strong operational efficiency, sustaining global oversupply. Shipping congestion at major Indian ports and reduced regional blending activity exacerbated the softening trend.

The quarter underscored persistent structural challenges in international ethanol trade, where ample supply consistently outweighed seasonal demand shifts. According to PriceWatch, by the end of Q2 2025, Ethanol prices averaged USD 698 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva for U.S.-origin cargoes.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2024

In India ethanol prices averaged at USD 696 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA) in Q1 2024, down 9% from the previous quarter as Indian import demand eased following heavy year-end buying. Global oversupply and lower U.S. corn prices pressured ethanol pricing, but Indian importers continued to source U.S. ethanol to compensate for domestic production shortfalls and to support ambitious blending targets.

The quarter highlighted the interplay between global ethanol market conditions and India’s evolving policy landscape, with imports remaining a key lever for meeting both industrial and fuel blending requirements.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2024

In Q2 2024, In India ethanol increased 13% to USD 789 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA). The ethanol market was buoyed by India’s sustained efforts to ramp up blending rates, persistent feedstock shortages, and elevated procurement prices for imported ethanol. Higher global freight costs and supply chain disruptions contributed to the price rise, while Indian buyers remained active in securing U.S. ethanol cargoes to meet government mandates. The quarter demonstrated the ethanol market’s sensitivity to both global logistical trends and domestic policy drivers in India.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q3 2024

The third quarter of 2024 saw ethanol prices in India rise 11% to USD 876 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA), driven by surging Indian demand for ethanol blending and persistent domestic feedstock shortages. The ethanol market benefited from government policies supporting higher blending rates and aggressive procurement by oil marketing companies.

Logistical disruptions and tight global supply from alternative origins further supported ethanol pricing, while U.S. exporters capitalized on their competitive position in the global ethanol market. The quarter underscored the critical role of imports in India’s ethanol market as the nation advanced toward its E20 blending goal.

Ethanol Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

Q4 2024 marked a sharp 19% decline in ethanol prices of India, falling to USD 711 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA). This drop was driven by a global ethanol market oversupply, increased competition from Brazil and Southeast Asia, and improved Indian inventories after a period of heavy imports. Indian buyers moderated procurement as domestic stocks rose and seasonal demand softened, while lower U.S. corn prices and easing freight rates further pressured ethanol pricing.

Despite the price correction, India’s ethanol market remained active, with import volumes still elevated compared to historical norms, reflecting the country’s ongoing push toward higher blend rates and industrial usage.

Global ethanol Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Corn, Sugarcane
  • Sugar Beet
  • Molasses
  • Cellulosic Biomass
Downstream
  • Fuel Blending (Gasoline/E10, E20, etc.)
  • Industrial Solvents
  • Beverages & Pharmaceuticals
  • Personal Care Products
  • Cleaning Products
  • Hand Sanitizers
Major supplying countries
  • United States
  • Brazil
  • Thailand
  • Argentina
  • France
  • Germany
Major importing countries
  • India
  • China
  • European Union
  • South Korea
  • Japan
  • Indonesia

India ethanol Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Corn, Sugarcane
  • Sugar Beet
  • Molasses
  • Cellulosic Biomass
Downstream
  • Fuel Blending (Gasoline/E10, E20, etc.)
  • Industrial Solvents
  • Beverages & Pharmaceuticals
  • Personal Care Products
  • Cleaning Products
  • Hand Sanitizers
Major supplying countries
  • United States
  • Brazil
  • Thailand
  • Argentina
  • France
  • Germany
Major importing countries
  • India
  • China
  • European Union
  • South Korea
  • Japan
  • Indonesia

Technical Specifications of Ethanol Price Trends

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

46.068 g/mol

CAS No

64-17-5

HS Code

22072000

Molecular Formula

Câ‚‚Hâ‚…OH
ethanol

Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol, is a clear, colorless liquid widely used as a solvent, disinfectant, and fuel additive. Produced mainly from the fermentation of plant materials, it is highly effective in killing germs and dissolving substances, making it essential in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and cleaning products. Ethanol is also a key ingredient in alcoholic beverages and is valued for its high purity and versatility across industrial and household applications.

Packaging Type

ISO TANK

Ethanol Grades Covered

Anhydrous

Incoterms Used

FOB Houston, FOB Santos, CIF Jeddah (USA), CIF Barranquilla (USA), CIF Busan (USA), CIF Kaohsiung (USA), CIF Antwerp (USA), CIF Rotterdam (USA), CIF Laem Chabang (USA), CIF Nhava Sheva (USA), CIF Alexandria (USA), CIF Jakarta (USA), CIF Callao (USA), CIF Immingham (USA), CIF Veracruz (USA), CIF Manila (USA), CIF Port of Singapore (USA), CIF Hamburg (USA), CIF San Antonio (USA), CIF Montreal (USA), CIF Manila (USA), CIF Nhava Sheva (Brazil), CIF Tokyo (Brazil), CIF Antwerp (Brazil), CIF Rotterdam (Brazil), CIF Busan (Brazil), CIF Port of Singapore (Brazil)

Synonym

Ethyl Alcohol

PriceWatch Quotation Terms:

24 – 26MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Physical state   liquid 
Colour   colourless 
Odour  like: – alcohol 
Melting point/freezing point   -114 °C 
Boiling point or initial boiling point and boiling range  78 °C at 1.013 hPa 
Flammability   flammable liquid in accordance with GHS criteria 
Lower and upper explosion limit   3,1 vol% (LEL) – 27,7 vol% (UEL) 
Flash point  12 °C (c.c.) 
Auto-ignition temperature   455 °C at 1.013 Pa 
pH (value)   7 (20 °C) 
Kinematic viscosity   1,519 mm²/s  at 20 °C 
Dynamic viscosity   1,2 mPa s at 20 °C 
Water solubility   ≥1.000 g/l at 20 °C 
Partition coefficient n-octanol/water (log value)  0,31 
Vapour pressure   59 hPa at 20 °C 
Density   0,81 g/cm³ at 20 °C 

Ethanol Industrial Applications

Its primary uses involve industries like fuel blending, solvent production, alcoholic beverages, and the manufacturing of other chemicals.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Ethanol prices

Farming Impact – (2024) 

In Brazil, ethanol prices are expected to increase in May and June due to reduced sugarcane harvesting and increased demand for gasoline blending. Prices are also expected to rise in July as the sugarcane harvest season begins.

Feedstock Fluctuation – (2023) 

In Europe, ethanol prices were affected by several factors, including Year-end destocking, Reduced cargo rates, Rising corn and energy prices, Record sugarcane output in Belgium, Global crop consumption and production adjustments, and Delays in biofuel production.

Russia Ukraine – (2022) 

Acknowledging ethanol’s potential to enhance domestic fuel supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EPA has granted emergency waivers that lift the summertime restrictions on E15, permitting its sale throughout the year. This legislation also allocates funding for the infrastructure needed for higher-blend biofuels and extends several existing tax credits related to biofuels.

Production boom in the Aftermath of Covid – (2021) 

As the sector starts to bounce back from the demand losses caused by COVID-19, U.S. ethanol production has risen by 8% compared to levels seen in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic – (2020) 

Due to worldwide lockdowns and a significant drop in fuel demand, many ethanol manufacturers shifted their focus to producing hand sanitizer and industrial alcohol. At the height of the crisis, more than 50% of the industry’s capacity was closed, with approximately 75% of ethanol facilities either offline or functioning at lower output levels.

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global ethanol price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the ethanol market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence ethanol prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely ethanol market data.

Track PriceWatch's ethanol price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.
On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major Ethanol production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.
Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire Ethanol supply chain, from raw material availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact Ethanol prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.
Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on Ethanol production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.
Economic Shifts: PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging, to predict shifts in Ethanol demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Ethanol production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.
Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming Ethanol production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: Price-Watch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.
Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global Ethanol pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: Price-Watch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast Ethanol prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.
Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.
Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Ethanol pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

46.068 g/mol

CAS No

64-17-5

HS Code

22072000

Molecular Formula

Câ‚‚Hâ‚…OH
ethanol

Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol, is a clear, colorless liquid widely used as a solvent, disinfectant, and fuel additive. Produced mainly from the fermentation of plant materials, it is highly effective in killing germs and dissolving substances, making it essential in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and cleaning products. Ethanol is also a key ingredient in alcoholic beverages and is valued for its high purity and versatility across industrial and household applications.

Packaging Type

ISO TANK

Grades Covered

Anhydrous

Incoterms Used

FOB Houston, FOB Santos, CIF Jeddah (USA), CIF Barranquilla (USA), CIF Busan (USA), CIF Kaohsiung (USA), CIF Antwerp (USA), CIF Rotterdam (USA), CIF Laem Chabang (USA), CIF Nhava Sheva (USA), CIF Alexandria (USA), CIF Jakarta (USA), CIF Callao (USA), CIF Immingham (USA), CIF Veracruz (USA), CIF Manila (USA), CIF Port of Singapore (USA), CIF Hamburg (USA), CIF San Antonio (USA), CIF Montreal (USA), CIF Manila (USA), CIF Nhava Sheva (Brazil), CIF Tokyo (Brazil), CIF Antwerp (Brazil), CIF Rotterdam (Brazil), CIF Busan (Brazil), CIF Port of Singapore (Brazil)

Synonym

Ethyl Alcohol

PriceWatch Quotation Terms:

24 – 26MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Physical state   liquid 
Colour   colourless 
Odour  like: – alcohol 
Melting point/freezing point   -114 °C 
Boiling point or initial boiling point and boiling range  78 °C at 1.013 hPa 
Flammability   flammable liquid in accordance with GHS criteria 
Lower and upper explosion limit   3,1 vol% (LEL) – 27,7 vol% (UEL) 
Flash point  12 °C (c.c.) 
Auto-ignition temperature   455 °C at 1.013 Pa 
pH (value)   7 (20 °C) 
Kinematic viscosity   1,519 mm²/s  at 20 °C 
Dynamic viscosity   1,2 mPa s at 20 °C 
Water solubility   ≥1.000 g/l at 20 °C 
Partition coefficient n-octanol/water (log value)  0,31 
Vapour pressure   59 hPa at 20 °C 
Density   0,81 g/cm³ at 20 °C 

Applications

Its primary uses involve industries like fuel blending, solvent production, alcoholic beverages, and the manufacturing of other chemicals.

Ethanol Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for ethanol. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Ethanol Pricing Factors: Corn prices, demand (influenced by gasoline prices and government policies), and supply (affected by plant capacity and disruptions) are key determinants of ethanol pricing. To predict future trends, monitor these factors closely and consider consulting with industry experts.

Negotiating Ethanol Pricing: Leverage market knowledge, explore long-term contracts, consider alternative sources, and build strong relationships with suppliers to negotiate favourable ethanol pricing Leverage market knowledge: Understand current market conditions and benchmark prices to negotiate fair terms.

Explore long-term contracts: Consider long-term contracts to secure stable pricing and potentially negotiate volume discounts.

Consider alternative sources: Evaluate options like imported ethanol or alternative feedstocks to increase your bargaining power.

Build strong relationships: Nurture relationships with suppliers to foster trust and potentially negotiate more favourable terms.

Ethanol Procurement Risks and Mitigation: Address price volatility, supply disruptions, and quality concerns through hedging, diversification, and quality control measures.

Price volatility: Fluctuations in corn prices and ethanol demand can lead to price volatility.

Supply disruptions: Issues like plant closures, transportation problems, or natural disasters can disrupt ethanol supply.

Quality concerns: Ensuring ethanol meets required specifications is crucial for avoiding quality-related issues.

Mitigation strategies include:

Hedging: Use financial instruments like futures contracts to manage price risk.

Diversification: Source ethanol from multiple suppliers to reduce supply chain risks.

Quality control: Implement rigorous quality testing and inspection procedures.