ethanol Pricing Assessment

Name: Ethanol Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast
Creator: PriceWatch
Published: 2025-02-11T11:09:17+00:00
License: https://www.price-watch.ai/privacy-policy/

Markets Covered:

United States

Brazil

China

Korea

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Ethanol Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

As the leading global ethanol producer, the United States encountered substantial challenges within the ethanol market during the initial two months of 2024. These challenges manifested in a persistent decline in US Ethanol prices. This decline was attributed to a reduction in Ethanol demand, both domestically and internationally. Additionally, the off-season in Europe and a decline in the transportation sector exacerbated the decrease in Ethanol consumption. Furthermore, the availability of abundant feedstock post-harvest season led to an increase in ethanol production, which in turn resulted in elevated inventory levels.

The North American ethanol market experienced a notable rise in ethanol prices during the second quarter of 2024, attributed to a variety of factors. These factors included escalating corn prices, surging energy expenditures, heightened demand for summer driving purposes, and the potential impact of regulatory measures. Within the United States, the ethanol market witnessed the most significant fluctuations, with a substantial increase of approximately 13% observed from the preceding quarter. The increase was primarily driven by the summer travel period and the needs of the manufacturing industry.

The U.S. ethanol market displayed significant fluctuations in July 2024, shaped by various market dynamics and overarching economic conditions. After an upward trajectory noted in the second quarter, ethanol prices initially increased but later experienced a downturn. U.S. ethanol prices saw a 1.4% rise during the first week of July, only to subsequently forfeit those gains. Throughout this timeframe, the U.S. Ethanol market exhibited a mixed performance, affected by both market conditions and seasonal influences. Looking forward, it is anticipated that ethanol prices will continue to be volatile, driven by changing corn prices, seasonal ethanol demand trends, and innovations in production technologies.

The ethanol market is projected to experience significant price fluctuations in the fourth quarter of 2024. Factors such as the increased demand for higher ethanol blends during the winter months, the prevailing corn prices, the availability of feedstocks, and the overall economic climate will all contribute to the market’s volatility. While the potential for higher prices exists due to increased ethanol demand and potential cost pressures, the actual trajectory of the market will be determined by the complex interplay of these factors.

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Track 's ethanol price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in ethanol prices

The COVID-19 pandemic – (2020)

Due to worldwide lockdowns and a significant drop in fuel demand, many ethanol manufacturers shifted their focus to producing hand sanitizer and industrial alcohol. At the height of the crisis, more than 50% of the industry’s capacity was closed, with approximately 75% of ethanol facilities either offline or functioning at lower output levels.

Production boom in the Aftermath of Covid – (2021)

As the sector starts to bounce back from the demand losses caused by COVID-19, U.S. ethanol production has risen by 8% compared to levels seen in 2020.

Russia Ukraine – (2022)

Acknowledging ethanol’s potential to enhance domestic fuel supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EPA has granted emergency waivers that lift the summertime restrictions on E15, permitting its sale throughout the year. This legislation also allocates funding for the infrastructure needed for higher-blend biofuels and extends several existing tax credits related to biofuels

Feedstock Fluctuation – (2023)

In Europe, ethanol prices were affected by several factors, including Year-end destocking, Reduced cargo rates, Rising corn and energy prices, Record sugarcane output in Belgium, Global crop consumption and production adjustments, and Delays in biofuel production.

Farming Impact – (2024)

In Brazil, ethanol prices are expected to increase in May and June due to reduced sugarcane harvesting and increased demand for gasoline blending. Prices are also expected to rise in July as the sugarcane harvest season begins.

Methodology and Specifications

ethanol Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.

On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major Ethanol production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.

Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire Ethanol supply chain, from raw material availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact Ethanol prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.

Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on Ethanol production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.

Economic Shifts: PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging, to predict shifts in Ethanol demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Ethanol production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.

Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming Ethanol production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.

Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global Ethanol pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast Ethanol prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.

Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.

Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Ethanol pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

46.068 g/mol

CAS No

64-17-5

HS Code

22072000

Molecular Formula

C₂H₅OH

ethanol

Packaging Type

Drum

Grades Covered

Anhydrous

Incoterms Used

CFR Shanghai_USA, FOB US Gulf, CFR Busan_USA, FOB Santos, CFR Rotterdam_USA, CFR Immingham_USA.

Synonym

Ethyl Alcohol

Quotation Terms:

1000MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Physical state	liquid
Colour	colourless
Odour	like: – alcohol
Melting point/freezing point	-114 °C
Boiling point or initial boiling point and boiling range	78 °C at 1.013 hPa
Flammability	flammable liquid in accordance with GHS criteria
Lower and upper explosion limit	3,1 vol% (LEL) – 27,7 vol% (UEL)
Flash point	12 °C (c.c.)
Auto-ignition temperature	455 °C at 1.013 Pa
pH (value)	7 (20 °C)
Kinematic viscosity	1,519 mm²/s at 20 °C
Dynamic viscosity	1,2 mPa s at 20 °C
Water solubility	≥1.000 g/l at 20 °C
Partition coefficient n-octanol/water (log value)	0,31
Vapour pressure	59 hPa at 20 °C
Density	0,81 g/cm³ at 20 °C

Applications

Its primary uses involve industries like fuel blending, solvent production, and the manufacturing of plastics, synthetic rubber, and other chemicals.

Disclaimer

Ethanol price provided by is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for ethanol. disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the key factors influencing ethanol pricing? +

Ethanol Pricing Factors: Corn prices, demand (influenced by gasoline prices and government policies), and supply (affected by plant capacity and disruptions) are key determinants of ethanol pricing. To predict future trends, monitor these factors closely and consider consulting with industry experts.

How can I negotiate favourable ethanol pricing with suppliers? +

Negotiating Ethanol Pricing: Leverage market knowledge, explore long-term contracts, consider alternative sources, and build strong relationships with suppliers to negotiate favourable ethanol pricing Leverage market knowledge: Understand current market conditions and benchmark prices to negotiate fair terms.

Explore long-term contracts: Consider long-term contracts to secure stable pricing and potentially negotiate volume discounts.

Consider alternative sources: Evaluate options like imported ethanol or alternative feedstocks to increase your bargaining power.

Build strong relationships: Nurture relationships with suppliers to foster trust and potentially negotiate more favourable terms.

What are the potential risks associated with ethanol procurement, and how can I mitigate them? +

Ethanol Procurement Risks and Mitigation: Address price volatility, supply disruptions, and quality concerns through hedging, diversification, and quality control measures.

Price volatility: Fluctuations in corn prices and ethanol demand can lead to price volatility.

Supply disruptions: Issues like plant closures, transportation problems, or natural disasters can disrupt ethanol supply.

Quality concerns: Ensuring ethanol meets required specifications is crucial for avoiding quality-related issues.

Mitigation strategies include:

Hedging: Use financial instruments like futures contracts to manage price risk.

Diversification: Source ethanol from multiple suppliers to reduce supply chain risks.

Quality control: Implement rigorous quality testing and inspection procedures.