United States
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Colombia
South Korea
Taiwan
Belgium
Netherlands
Thailand
India
Egypt
Indonesia
Peru
United Kingdom
Mexico
Philippines
Germany
Chile
Canada
Japan
SingaporeIn Q1 2025, ethanol prices rebounded 6% to USD 613 per metric ton FOB US Gulf, supported by renewed export demand and stable domestic blending activity. US ethanol production and exports saw strong growth, with year-to-date production up 2% and exports up 6% from the previous year, driven by robust demand from Canada, the EU, UK, India, and Colombia.
Higher corn prices and energy costs contributed to a firmer cost base, but the ethanol market benefited from policy support for renewable fuels and favorable global trade dynamics. The quarter reflected a cautiously optimistic outlook, with the US ethanol market leveraging its competitive edge and export momentum to support higher pricing into 2025.
In Q2 2025, the Ethanol market displayed tentative signs of stabilization, supported by a gradual improvement in domestic transportation fuel demand and renewed export opportunities into Latin American markets, particularly Brazil and Mexico. Seasonal blending demand in Europe provided marginal support, though the overall market remained constrained by sustained high production volumes from U.S. biorefineries, driven by ample corn feedstock availability and efficient operational rates. Competitive alternative fuels and subdued global energy price volatility continued to limit any significant upward momentum.
The quarter reflected a delicate balance between recovering consumption and persistent oversupply, resulting in only a modest recovery. According to PriceWatch, by the close of Q2 2025, Ethanol prices averaged USD 620.72 per metric ton FOB Houston.
In Q1 2024, ethanol prices had averaged USD 564 per metric ton FOB US Gulf, reflecting a sharp 21% quarter-on-quarter decline. The downturn was fuelled by weak domestic and global demand, particularly from the transportation sector and off-season markets like Europe. Concurrently, high post-harvest feedstock availability led to robust US ethanol production and a buildup in inventories.
Coupled with declining corn prices and sluggish export activity, these factors exerted significant downward pressure on pricing and margins. The quarter highlighted the ethanol market’s vulnerability to global agricultural cycles and energy demand fluctuations.
Ethanol prices rebounded in Q2 2024, climbing 14% to USD 642 per metric ton FOB US Gulf amid a seasonal boost in gasoline consumption and rising export interest. The North American summer driving season and regulatory support for biofuel blending drove increased ethanol demand.
However, elevated corn and energy prices raised production costs and compressed margins. Global buyers, especially from Europe and Asia, turned to US ethanol due to supply constraints elsewhere, helping to absorb excess domestic output and improve market sentiment.
Ethanol prices continued their upward trajectory in Q3 2024, rising a modest 3% to USD 663 per metric ton FOB US Gulf. The market remained supported by steady export flows and robust blending mandates across international markets. However, rising feedstock costs and logistical challenges put pressure on producer margins.
With higher corn prices and volatile energy costs, producers maintained disciplined output to align with market demand. Strong international buying interest particularly from India, the EU, and the UK continued to anchor US ethanol prices, cementing the country’s competitive export position.
Q4 2024 marked a strong downward correction in ethanol prices, with levels falling 13% to USD 576 per metric ton FOB US Gulf. The market faced renewed headwinds from global oversupply, softening international demand, and easing domestic consumption post-harvest. Elevated US inventories and increased competition from Brazilian exporters further weighed on export values. Although corn prices declined, offering some margin relief, the market saw narrowing profitability.
Despite record-high output and export volumes earlier in the year, the quarter highlighted ethanol’s sensitivity to demand shifts and reinforced the fragile balance between supply and pricing power.
In Q1 2025, according to PriceWatch, ethanol prices in India climbed 3% to USD 733 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA), reflecting robust demand from India’s ethanol market as the country accelerated its E20 blending mandate and industrial consumption remained strong. Higher global corn prices and a rebound in international freight rates contributed to the upward movement in ethanol pricing.
U.S. ethanol exports to India saw significant growth, with India ranking among the top five destinations for U.S. ethanol, supported by both policy-driven demand and ongoing domestic feedstock constraints. The quarter highlighted India’s reliance on imported ethanol to meet its ambitious blending targets and industrial needs, even as global market volatility and logistical costs continued to shape ethanol market dynamics.
In Q2 2025, the Ethanol market faced renewed downward pressure as Asian demand weakened during the monsoon season, reducing import appetite in key markets like India. Competitive pricing from Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol further eroded U.S. exporters’ market share, intensifying price competition.
Despite the decline, U.S. biorefineries maintained high production levels, supported by favorable corn harvest conditions and strong operational efficiency, sustaining global oversupply. Shipping congestion at major Indian ports and reduced regional blending activity exacerbated the softening trend.
The quarter underscored persistent structural challenges in international ethanol trade, where ample supply consistently outweighed seasonal demand shifts. According to PriceWatch, by the end of Q2 2025, Ethanol prices averaged USD 698 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva for U.S.-origin cargoes.
In India ethanol prices averaged at USD 696 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA) in Q1 2024, down 9% from the previous quarter as Indian import demand eased following heavy year-end buying. Global oversupply and lower U.S. corn prices pressured ethanol pricing, but Indian importers continued to source U.S. ethanol to compensate for domestic production shortfalls and to support ambitious blending targets.
The quarter highlighted the interplay between global ethanol market conditions and India’s evolving policy landscape, with imports remaining a key lever for meeting both industrial and fuel blending requirements.
In Q2 2024, In India ethanol increased 13% to USD 789 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA). The ethanol market was buoyed by India’s sustained efforts to ramp up blending rates, persistent feedstock shortages, and elevated procurement prices for imported ethanol. Higher global freight costs and supply chain disruptions contributed to the price rise, while Indian buyers remained active in securing U.S. ethanol cargoes to meet government mandates. The quarter demonstrated the ethanol market’s sensitivity to both global logistical trends and domestic policy drivers in India.
The third quarter of 2024 saw ethanol prices in India rise 11% to USD 876 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA), driven by surging Indian demand for ethanol blending and persistent domestic feedstock shortages. The ethanol market benefited from government policies supporting higher blending rates and aggressive procurement by oil marketing companies.
Logistical disruptions and tight global supply from alternative origins further supported ethanol pricing, while U.S. exporters capitalized on their competitive position in the global ethanol market. The quarter underscored the critical role of imports in India’s ethanol market as the nation advanced toward its E20 blending goal.
Q4 2024 marked a sharp 19% decline in ethanol prices of India, falling to USD 711 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva (USA). This drop was driven by a global ethanol market oversupply, increased competition from Brazil and Southeast Asia, and improved Indian inventories after a period of heavy imports. Indian buyers moderated procurement as domestic stocks rose and seasonal demand softened, while lower U.S. corn prices and easing freight rates further pressured ethanol pricing.
Despite the price correction, India’s ethanol market remained active, with import volumes still elevated compared to historical norms, reflecting the country’s ongoing push toward higher blend rates and industrial usage.
Molecular Weight[g/mol]
CAS No
HS Code
Molecular Formula
Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol, is a clear, colorless liquid widely used as a solvent, disinfectant, and fuel additive. Produced mainly from the fermentation of plant materials, it is highly effective in killing germs and dissolving substances, making it essential in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and cleaning products. Ethanol is also a key ingredient in alcoholic beverages and is valued for its high purity and versatility across industrial and household applications.
Packaging Type
Ethanol Grades Covered
Incoterms Used
Synonym
PriceWatch Quotation Terms:
Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.
| Physical state |  liquid |
| Colour  | colourless |
| Odour | like: – alcohol |
| Melting point/freezing point  | -114 °C |
| Boiling point or initial boiling point and boiling range | 78 °C at 1.013 hPa |
| Flammability  | flammable liquid in accordance with GHS criteria |
| Lower and upper explosion limit  | 3,1 vol% (LEL) – 27,7 vol% (UEL) |
| Flash point | 12 °C (c.c.) |
| Auto-ignition temperature  | 455 °C at 1.013 Pa |
| pH (value)  | 7 (20 °C) |
| Kinematic viscosity  | 1,519 mm²/s at 20 °C |
| Dynamic viscosity  | 1,2 mPa s at 20 °C |
| Water solubility  | ≥1.000 g/l at 20 °C |
| Partition coefficient n-octanol/water (log value)Â | 0,31Â |
| Vapour pressure  | 59 hPa at 20 °C |
| Density  | 0,81 g/cm³ at 20 °C |
Ethanol Applications
Its primary uses involve industries like fuel blending, solvent production, alcoholic beverages, and the manufacturing of other chemicals.
Farming Impact – (2024)Â
In Brazil, ethanol prices are expected to increase in May and June due to reduced sugarcane harvesting and increased demand for gasoline blending. Prices are also expected to rise in July as the sugarcane harvest season begins.
Feedstock Fluctuation – (2023)Â
In Europe, ethanol prices were affected by several factors, including Year-end destocking, Reduced cargo rates, Rising corn and energy prices, Record sugarcane output in Belgium, Global crop consumption and production adjustments, and Delays in biofuel production.
Russia Ukraine – (2022)Â
Acknowledging ethanol’s potential to enhance domestic fuel supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EPA has granted emergency waivers that lift the summertime restrictions on E15, permitting its sale throughout the year. This legislation also allocates funding for the infrastructure needed for higher-blend biofuels and extends several existing tax credits related to biofuels.
Production boom in the Aftermath of Covid – (2021)Â
As the sector starts to bounce back from the demand losses caused by COVID-19, U.S. ethanol production has risen by 8% compared to levels seen in 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic – (2020)Â
Due to worldwide lockdowns and a significant drop in fuel demand, many ethanol manufacturers shifted their focus to producing hand sanitizer and industrial alcohol. At the height of the crisis, more than 50% of the industry’s capacity was closed, with approximately 75% of ethanol facilities either offline or functioning at lower output levels.
PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global ethanol price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the ethanol market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.
In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence ethanol prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely ethanol market data.
Track PriceWatch's ethanol price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.
Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.
On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major Ethanol production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.
Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire Ethanol supply chain, from raw material availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.
Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact Ethanol prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.
Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on Ethanol production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.
Economic Shifts: PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging, to predict shifts in Ethanol demand and corresponding price movements.
Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Ethanol production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.
Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming Ethanol production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.
Sectoral Demand Analysis: Price-Watch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.
Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global Ethanol pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.
Dynamic Pricing Models: Price-Watch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast Ethanol prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.
Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.
Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.
Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.
This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Ethanol pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.
Molecular Weight[g/mol]
CAS No
HS Code
Molecular Formula
Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol, is a clear, colorless liquid widely used as a solvent, disinfectant, and fuel additive. Produced mainly from the fermentation of plant materials, it is highly effective in killing germs and dissolving substances, making it essential in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and cleaning products. Ethanol is also a key ingredient in alcoholic beverages and is valued for its high purity and versatility across industrial and household applications.
Packaging Type
Grades Covered
Incoterms Used
Synonym
PriceWatch Quotation Terms:
Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.
| Physical state |  liquid |
| Colour  | colourless |
| Odour | like: – alcohol |
| Melting point/freezing point  | -114 °C |
| Boiling point or initial boiling point and boiling range | 78 °C at 1.013 hPa |
| Flammability  | flammable liquid in accordance with GHS criteria |
| Lower and upper explosion limit  | 3,1 vol% (LEL) – 27,7 vol% (UEL) |
| Flash point | 12 °C (c.c.) |
| Auto-ignition temperature  | 455 °C at 1.013 Pa |
| pH (value)  | 7 (20 °C) |
| Kinematic viscosity  | 1,519 mm²/s at 20 °C |
| Dynamic viscosity  | 1,2 mPa s at 20 °C |
| Water solubility  | ≥1.000 g/l at 20 °C |
| Partition coefficient n-octanol/water (log value)Â | 0,31Â |
| Vapour pressure  | 59 hPa at 20 °C |
| Density  | 0,81 g/cm³ at 20 °C |
Applications
Its primary uses involve industries like fuel blending, solvent production, alcoholic beverages, and the manufacturing of other chemicals.
Ethanol Pricing Factors: Corn prices, demand (influenced by gasoline prices and government policies), and supply (affected by plant capacity and disruptions) are key determinants of ethanol pricing. To predict future trends, monitor these factors closely and consider consulting with industry experts.
Negotiating Ethanol Pricing: Leverage market knowledge, explore long-term contracts, consider alternative sources, and build strong relationships with suppliers to negotiate favourable ethanol pricing Leverage market knowledge: Understand current market conditions and benchmark prices to negotiate fair terms.
Explore long-term contracts: Consider long-term contracts to secure stable pricing and potentially negotiate volume discounts.
Consider alternative sources: Evaluate options like imported ethanol or alternative feedstocks to increase your bargaining power.
Build strong relationships: Nurture relationships with suppliers to foster trust and potentially negotiate more favourable terms.
Ethanol Procurement Risks and Mitigation: Address price volatility, supply disruptions, and quality concerns through hedging, diversification, and quality control measures.
Price volatility: Fluctuations in corn prices and ethanol demand can lead to price volatility.
Supply disruptions: Issues like plant closures, transportation problems, or natural disasters can disrupt ethanol supply.
Quality concerns: Ensuring ethanol meets required specifications is crucial for avoiding quality-related issues.
Mitigation strategies include:
Hedging: Use financial instruments like futures contracts to manage price risk.
Diversification: Source ethanol from multiple suppliers to reduce supply chain risks.
Quality control: Implement rigorous quality testing and inspection procedures.