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Gold Price Trend and Forecast

âźł Weekly Update
|
Historical Data Since 2015
|
Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing

gold Price Trends by Country

usUnited States

gold Pricing Trends in India: 

  • Northern India gold market price trend
  • Southern India gold market price trend
  • Central India gold market price trend

Global gold Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast​

Gold Price Trend Q3 2025

Gold’s price increase of 5% in Q3 2025 has been primarily driven by factors including rising geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts drove investors to gold’s safe haven status and continued inflationary and weakening USD expectations spurred gold’s attractiveness. Many analysts pointed out that several central banks, particularly in emerging markets, sustained or increased gold purchasing to diversify reserves from fiat currencies.

Investment demand also rebounded materially, and gold ETFs had net inflows after a few quarters of outflows, contributing to price-driving momentum. The dovish tilt of global monetary policy expectations of interest rate cuts reduced the opportunity costs for holding nonyielding assets such as gold.

Global Gold (XAU/USD)

According to PriceWatch, in the third quarter of 2025, Gold had a significant price uptrend in which gold prices increased 5% relative to Q2. The price performance of gold at this time has been caused by a combination of macroeconomic events and geopolitical challenges. Concerns about inflation persisted globally, driving many investors to consider gold a legitimate store of value.

Central banks, especially emerging economies, continued to increase their gold reserves and support demand. The price support has also been attributed to a weaker USD and a view for a dovish tilt central bank concerning interest rates.

Moreover, in September 2025, Gold (XAUUSD) prices began to experience a significant price increase with prices up 8% under distressed geopolitical tensions and data showing weak economic performance from the most critical global economic sectors, prompting additional risk aversion. The culmination of macroeconomic factors and geopolitical experiences enhanced gold’s reputation as a safe haven and generated upward price momentum to the end of Q3.

Gold Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

According to PriceWatch, gold prices surged by $3,287 per ounce, a 14.59% increase in Q2 2025. This significant rise is driven by strong central bank demand, especially from China, as part of a broader de dollarization strategy and efforts to hedge against global economic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve cautious stance, with only one projected rate cut despite ongoing inflation, has weakened confidence in the dollar and boosted gold appeal.

Persistent geopolitical tensions, trade friction, and fears of a recession have further increased demand for safe haven assets. Additionally, strong inflows into gold ETFs and rising investment interest have reinforced this upward momentum.

Gold Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2025

Gold prices extended their rally in Q1 2025, increasing by 7.13% to $2,855. This surge was fueled by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, sustained central bank purchases, and heightened concerns over global economic stability. Institutional investors continued to increase their exposure to gold, seeking protection against market volatility and inflationary pressures.

The rising demand for gold-backed ETFs and physical bullion further strengthened the market. Additionally, supply chain disruptions in gold mining and refining added to the upward pressure on prices, limiting new supply and driving premiums higher.

By the last week of March 2025, gold was trading around $3,030, reflecting strong investor sentiment and heightened demand. Key factors contributing to this rise included:

  • Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, with expectations of potential rate cuts supporting gold’s appeal.
  • Global debt concerns and currency fluctuations, leading investors to hedge against economic risks.
  • Strong demand from emerging markets like China and India, particularly in the jewelry and investment sectors.
  • Continued geopolitical instability, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.

Gold Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

Gold prices rebounded in Q4 2024, posting a 7.09% increase, reaching $2,664. Renewed central bank demand and escalating geopolitical tensions drove this growth. Investors turned to gold ETFs and physical bullion as economic uncertainties persisted.

The festive and wedding season in India, along with strong jewelry consumption, further supported the market. Despite fluctuations in interest rates, gold maintained its strong position due to its safe-haven status, ending the year on a positive note.

Gold Price Trend Analysis: Q3 2024

In Q3 2024, gold prices faced downward pressure but still managed to record a 6.40% increase, climbing to $2,488. A strengthening US dollar and rising bond yields led to a shift toward riskier assets, causing a temporary market correction.

Improving economic conditions and easing inflation concerns dampened gold’s momentum. However, demand from emerging markets like China and India provided a cushion against significant price declines, supporting overall growth.

Gold Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2024

Gold prices continued their upward momentum in Q2 2024, marking a 12.68% increase, reaching $2,338. This surge was fueled by sustained central bank purchases and growing institutional investor interest. Economic uncertainties and fears of a global economic slowdown further strengthened gold’s appeal.

Geopolitical risks and currency fluctuations remained key price drivers, while profit-taking and fluctuating bond yields caused intermittent corrections. Despite these, the overall sentiment remained bullish.

Gold Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2024

In Q1 2024, the global gold market witnessed a 4.52% increase in XAU/USD, with prices rising from $1,985 to $2,075. This growth was driven by heightened inflation concerns and central bank policies. Investors sought gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates and fluctuations in the US dollar played a pivotal role in gold’s price movements. While the surge in demand pushed prices higher, periodic corrections occurred due to shifting treasury yields.

India gold Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

Global gold Supply Chain

India gold Supply Chain

Technical Specifications of Gold Price Trends

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

CAS No

HS Code

Molecular Formula

gold

Gold (XAU/USD) is a globally recognized precious metal traded on major exchanges and used in various industries, including investment, jewelry, and technology. Known for its intrinsic value, gold serves as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

Packaging Type

N/A

Gold Grades Covered

999.9 (24K Pure Gold)

Incoterms Used

Global Weekly Closing

Synonym

PriceWatch Quotation Terms:

Trading Units: 1-5 oz, Incoterms Used: Global Weekly Closing

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Gold Industrial Applications

  • Investment: Bullion, ETFs, Central Bank Reserves
  • Jewelry: Rings, Necklaces, Bangles, Ornaments
  • Technology: Semiconductor Manufacturing, Medical Devices
  • Finance: Gold-Backed Digital Currencies, Collateral for Loans

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Gold prices

  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022): Geopolitical tensions led to heightened volatility in gold prices, as investors looked to gold as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation.
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2021): Gold saw a historic rally as investors turned to bullion amidst economic shutdowns, aggressive monetary easing, and inflation fears.
  • Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009): The crisis triggered massive gold purchases as investors sought a safe haven amid economic uncertainty, leading to a sharp increase in prices.

These events underscore gold’s role as a safe-haven asset and its sensitivity to global economic and political shifts.

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global gold price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the gold market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence gold prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely gold market data.

Track PriceWatch's gold price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates pricing data from global commodity exchanges (COMEX), industry reports, and proprietary databases.
  • Market Intelligence: Our team gathers insights from bullion traders, central banks, mining companies, and institutional investors.
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the global gold supply chain, including mining production, refining capacity, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Factors: PriceWatch monitors conflicts, trade policies, and regulatory changes that affect gold demand and supply.
  • Macroeconomic Trends: Interest rates, inflation data, and central bank policies are analyzed to predict market shifts.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Mining and Refining: We track production levels, operational status, and new mining projects.
  • Central Bank Reserves: Analysis of central bank gold purchases and holdings as a key driver of long-term price trends.
  • Investment & Jewelry Demand: Tracking of ETF inflows, jewelry consumption trends, and industrial usage.

Demand Forecasting

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch employs advanced econometric models incorporating historical data, technical indicators, and market sentiment analysis.
  • Scenario Analysis: Best-case, worst-case, and most likely projections are developed to provide actionable insights.

Reporting and Client Support

  • Detailed Reports: Clients receive periodic reports with comprehensive analysis, price trends, and future outlooks.
  • Expert Consultations: Ongoing support from analysts to discuss market developments and investment strategies.

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

CAS No

HS Code

Molecular Formula

gold

Gold (XAU/USD) is a globally recognized precious metal traded on major exchanges and used in various industries, including investment, jewelry, and technology. Known for its intrinsic value, gold serves as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

Packaging Type

N/A

Grades Covered

999.9 (24K Pure Gold)

Incoterms Used

Global Weekly Closing

Synonym

PriceWatch Quotation Terms:

Trading Units: 1-5 oz, Incoterms Used: Global Weekly Closing

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Applications

  • Investment: Bullion, ETFs, Central Bank Reserves
  • Jewelry: Rings, Necklaces, Bangles, Ornaments
  • Technology: Semiconductor Manufacturing, Medical Devices
  • Finance: Gold-Backed Digital Currencies, Collateral for Loans
Gold Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for gold. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Macroeconomic Trends: Inflation, interest rates, and GDP growth impact gold demand.

Central Bank Policies: Gold reserves held by central banks influence market trends.

Geopolitical Risks: Political instability, trade wars, and conflicts drive safe-haven demand.

To diversify foreign reserves, hedge against currency risks, and ensure financial stability.

PriceWatch provides real-time data, expert analysis, and weekly reports to keep you informed of market movements.

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