𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡™ provides price assessments for Hot Rolled coil (HRC) across top trading regions:
Asia-Pacific
- HRC IS2062 2.5-8mm Ex-Mumbai, India
- HRC SS400 2.75mm FoB Shanghai, China
North-America
- HRC A1011-1.8mm Ex-Alabama, USA
Europe
- HRC S235JR 2-3mm FD Sheffield, UK
Hot Rolled Coil Price Trend Q4 2025
During the fourth quarter of 2025, the hot rolled coil (HRC) marketplace demonstrated differences in behavior due to weakening demand from manufacturing sectors, stable costs for raw materials, and different levels of import pressure around the world. The Chinese market faced clean headwinds with very low capacity utilization at approximately 78.5%, high levels of inventory at the mills and traders, and limited exports because of global anti-dumping measures causing soft pricing throughout the quarter. The western markets (USA and UK) saw a benefit from protectionism in relation to trade as well as the imposition of discipline on suppliers, while India had to deal with regional tap spillover (oversupply) and unevenness of performance across the regions.
HRC SS400 2.75mm FOB Shanghai, China
The price trend of Hot Rolled Coil in China declined by 2.6% in Q4 2025, primarily due to capacity utilization dipping to 78.5%, signaling persistent overcapacity and weak operational efficiency across major mills. Elevated inventories at producers and traders, coupled with tepid domestic demand from construction slowdowns post-policy stimulus fade, exerted downward pressure throughout October-December. Exports remained challenged by global anti-dumping duties and competition from cheaper alternatives, while steady iron ore and coking coal costs failed to provide cost-push support. Production growth in prior months flooded downstream channels, capping any recovery attempts amid rangebound futures trading. Hot Rolled Coil prices in China fell by -0.1% in December 2025 as ongoing supply looseness persisted, with mills maintaining steady output levels despite seasonal year-end demand from infrastructure projects. Futures contracts stabilized around Yuan 3,300/mt, but high stock levels at major ports discouraged aggressive restocking by traders and end-users. Weak export momentum into Southeast Asia further softened spot offers, preventing any late-quarter rebound.
HRC IS2062 2.5-8mm Ex-Mumbai, India
The price trend of Hot Rolled Coil in India declined by -3.0% in Q4 2025, driven by aggressive import surges projected at 137,500 mt arrivals flooding the market and undermining domestic producers’ pricing power. Seasonal post-festive demand weakness in construction and autos compounded issues, with liquidity shortages leading to deferred purchases and high stock buildup at warehouses. China’s regional oversupply spillover depressed export indices by 5% QoQ to the Middle East, while raw material stability offered no relief amid cautious mill adjustments. Buyers favored spot deals at lower levels around ₹47,000-49,500/mt, reflecting broader Asian softness and limited government interventions. Hot Rolled Coil prices in India fell by -0.7% in December 2025 amid persistent import pressure that continued to outpace domestic consumption needs. Post-holiday stabilization in key consuming sectors like real estate and manufacturing failed to materialize quickly, leading to extended buyer caution and deferred inquiries. Domestic mills struggled to offload excess stocks, exacerbating the downward trajectory in spot markets.
HRC A1011-1.8mm Ex-Alabama, USA
The price trend of Hot Rolled Coil in the USA rose by +3.7% in Q4 2025, fueled by escalated Section 232 tariffs under President Trump (25-50% on key origins), which slashed import volumes from Canada, Mexico, and Asia, tightening domestic availability. Reduced foreign competition empowered mills to lift offers, despite soft end-user demand from automotive slowdowns and construction hesitancy in a high-interest environment. Hand-to-mouth buying patterns minimized inventory risks, while scrap costs firmed modestly, supporting producer margins and reversing earlier quarterly downside forecasts. Policy-driven protectionism overshadowed global weakness, stabilizing service centers and specialty fabricators. Hot Rolled Coil prices in the USA rose by +5.6% in December 2025 as tariff impacts peaked, with sharply reduced import bookings creating acute supply tightness for service centers. Domestic mills capitalized on the scarcity by firming up offers, while buyers shifted focus from offshore sourcing to local availability amid rising lead times. End-user sectors like appliances saw modest restocking, further bolstering the late-quarter rally.
HRC S235JR 2-3mm FD Sheffield, UK
The price trend of Hot Rolled Coil in the UK rose by 1.4% in Q4 2025, sustained by steady European supply discipline amid high import quotas but moderated by Trump’s tariffs diverting global flows away from oversupplied Asia. Recessionary pressures curbed demand from infrastructure and manufacturing. Weak construction activity and auto sector inventory drawdowns limited upside, but no major disruptions in energy or scrap inputs aided resilience versus continental peers. Overall, policy spillovers and regional stability prevented sharper declines seen elsewhere. Hot Rolled Coil prices in the UK rose by 1.4% in December 2025 amid a shift to firmer seller dynamics, with continental mills shortening delivery times to attract orders. Buyers weighed risks from potential quota exhaustions and US policy spillovers, opting for measured restocking that supported modest price gains. Stable scrap and energy inputs provided mills with confidence to maintain elevated offers without major pushbacks.












