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Iron Ore Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 11111600
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⟳ Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing

iron ore Price Trends by Country

auAustralia
brBrazil
cnChina
inIndia

Global iron ore Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

Price-Watch’s most active coverage of Iron Ore price assessment:

  • Fe-62%min. FOB Brisbane, Australia
  • Fe-65%min. FOB Santos, Brazil
  • Fe-62%min. CIF Qingdao (Australia), China
  • Fe-64%,-10mm EX-Bailadila, India

Iron Ore Price Trend Q3 2025

In Q3 2025, the global Iron Ore market exhibited a mixed trend across major producing and consuming regions. Price trends fluctuated between moderate gains and sharp declines, reflecting uneven regional supply-demand dynamics and shifting trade patterns. While China, Australia, and Brazil experienced price increases supported by solid steel production and steady export activity, India saw notable price deterioration amid weak domestic consumption and export challenges.

Overall, the quarter underscored the contrasting fundamentals across regions, leading to an irregular yet moderately active global iron ore market landscape during the July–September 2025 period.

Australia

Iron Ore Export prices FOB Brisbane, Australia, Grade- Fe-62%min.

The Iron ore price trend in Australia rose by 3.32% in Q3 2025, supported by steady export demand from major Asian consumers, particularly China, alongside improved seaborne trade activity. Supply disruptions caused by weather-related factors in certain mining regions contributed to firmer price sentiment. Despite global economic uncertainties, the sustained pace of infrastructure projects in key destinations helped maintain shipment stability.

Iron Ore prices in Australia increased further by 1.1% in September 2025 as restocking demand from overseas buyers strengthened and logistical constraints at ports briefly tightened supply, lending additional short-term support to market levels.

Brazil

Iron Ore Export prices FOB Santos, China, Grade- Fe-65%min.

In Q3 2025, the price for Iron Ore in Brazil increased by 0.31%, showing slight improvements in demand from Asian markets and maintaining steady export prices despite ongoing cost pressures. Production recovery at many Brazilian mines after being off-line for maintenance allowed supplies to stabilize throughout the quarter. However, there were still limitations on larger price increases due to cautious demand from steelmakers and moderate freight rates.

Iron Ore prices in Brazil increased 0.6% in September 2025 due to continued restocking activity among major importers, and global prices achieved modest increases as demand has been steady in China and Southeast Asia.

China

Iron Ore Import prices CIF Qingdao (Australia), China, Grade- Fe-62%min.

According to Price-Watch, the Iron ore price trend in China has markedly been up by 4.44% in Q3 2025 as improved steel production rates and stable raw material demand due to infrastructure expansion and renewed property stimulus, together with restocking by mills near the end of the seasonal period when supplies are refilled, added upward market momentum. The tightening of seaborne supply from major exporters has been another supportive factor.

In addition, an optimistic second-half economic recovery trend, driven by government efforts, also improved buying sentiment in the domestic market. Iron Ore prices in China have increased by 2.2% month-on-month in September 2025, supported by strong mill procurement in anticipation of the October holidays, with steady activity in the industrial sector helping keep market sentiment constructive.

India

Iron Ore Domestic prices EX-Bailadila, India, Grade- Fe-64%,-10mm.

According to Price-Watch, in the third quarter of 2025, prices of Iron Ore in India showed a notable decline of 7.04%. The Iron ore price trend in India reflected weak demand from domestic steel manufacturers and elevated levels of export restrictions that impacted market activity. Abundant supply of Iron Ore from the primary Indian regions and soft sales into adjacent markets pressured market prices.

The downward trajectory has been further exacerbated by a slowing down of downstream activity in the manufacturing and construction sectors, creating broad price declines. Prices for Iron Ore in India fell by 4.7% in September 2025 due to ongoing oversupply, weaker export competitiveness due to deteriorating Chinese seaborne buying, and a good domestic supply.

Iron Ore Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

According to PriceWatch, In Q2 2025, iron ore prices in Australia dropped from $91.2 per metric tonne in Q1 to $84.3 per metric tonne in Q2, a 7.6% decrease. This decline is largely attributed to increased supply from new mining projects and subdued Chinese demand. The opening of a major new mine in Western Australia, with significant capacity and investment from both Australian and Chinese partners, has expanded supply and put downward pressure on prices.

Additionally, the discovery of a vast new reserve in the Hamersley region has further boosted market expectations for long-term supply growth, encouraging buyers to negotiate lower prices. These developments, combined with only modest demand recovery from China, have contributed to the softening of Australian iron ore prices in the second quarter.

Iron ore prices in Brazil also saw a significant drop of a 10% in Q2. The Brazilian market has been affected by increased global supply and strong export volumes, which have added to the surplus in the seaborne market. Brazil’s iron ore exports are forecast to remain robust, with expectations of exceeding 400 million tonnes by 2026.

This export momentum, coupled with the launch of new projects like Simandou in Guinea and the expansion of Australian supply, has intensified competition and pushed prices lower. Additionally, global trade tensions and weaker-than-expected steel demand, especially in China, have further weighed on Brazilian iron ore prices.

In China, iron ore prices declined by 6.7% in Q2. The Chinese market has been pressured by subdued steel demand, high inventories, and increased global supply. Despite strong steel exports in the first half of the year, domestic consumption has not rebounded as anticipated, while tariffs and trade tensions have dampened overall demand.

The influx of supply from Australia and Brazil, along with the anticipation of further increases from new projects, has kept prices under pressure. As a result, Chinese mills have been able to negotiate lower prices, and market sentiment remains cautious heading into the second half of the year.

According to PriceWatch, Indian iron ore prices increased a 5.1% rise from approximately $59.20 per metric tonne in Q1 2025 to $62.22 per metric tonne in Q2 2025. The Indian market has been supported by strong domestic demand from the steel sector and stable export activity. Government-led infrastructure and construction projects have kept consumption robust, while export volumes, especially to China, have remained healthy.

Unlike other major producers, India’s iron ore prices have been more resilient due to a favorable supply-demand balance and limited exposure to the global oversupply that has impacted Australia and Brazil. This has allowed Indian producers to achieve modest price gains even as global benchmarks decline.

In Q1 2025, Australia’s iron ore price saw a modest increase from 90 to 91/DMT, reflecting a 1.1% quarter-on-quarter rise. This slight uptick was primarily attributed to a combination of steady demand from key Asian markets and mild supply constraints caused by weather-related disruptions in certain mining regions. The market in Australia responded positively to this upward movement, with participants expressing cautious optimism that the worst of the previous year’s volatility was behind them.

In Brazil, prices remained unchanged, leading to a stable and neutral market sentiment as both producers and buyers awaited clearer signals of demand recovery. China experienced a marginal price increase, which was met with mild optimism, as it suggested a gradual improvement in industrial activity and steel production.

Meanwhile, India recorded a notable price rise, which boosted market confidence and reinforced expectations of strong domestic demand, especially from the construction and infrastructure sectors. Overall, while the price changes were modest, the general sentiment across all regions leaned towards cautious optimism and hope for a more stable year ahead.

In Q1 2025, Indian iron ore prices dipped to USD 60.96/DMT a 5.6% decrease from Q4 2024. This moderation was likely due to a combination of factors, including increased supply as mining operations normalized and a slight slowdown in steel demand after the year-end rush.

Some market participants also adopted a wait-and-see approach, anticipating potential changes in government policy or global market conditions. The overall sentiment was cautiously optimistic, with the market remaining fundamentally strong but more balanced compared to the previous quarter’s exuberance.

Iron Ore Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

In Q4 2024, the iron ore market began to show signs of stabilization, with Australia, Brazil, and China all recording modest quarter-on-quarter price increases. This shift contributed to a cautiously optimistic sentiment among producers and traders, who viewed the price uptick as a potential turning point after several challenging quarters. The improvement was driven by seasonal restocking activities and early indications of a recovery in steel demand, particularly in China.

Australian and Brazilian exporters welcomed the more favorable conditions, which allowed for improved planning and a gradual resumption of previously delayed projects. In China, the market mood was buoyed by government stimulus measures aimed at supporting infrastructure and industrial activity. India, meanwhile, experienced a robust rebound in prices, returning to levels seen earlier in the year.

This resurgence was underpinned by renewed domestic demand and a positive outlook for the construction sector, which lifted overall market confidence. Across all regions, there was a sense of cautious optimism, with stakeholders’ hopeful that the worst of the downturn was over and that a more stable period lay ahead.

In Q4 2024, prices rebounded sharply to 5,360, representing an USD 64.58/DMT quarter-on-quarter increase. The recovery was driven by the resumption of mining activities after the monsoon and renewed demand from the steel sector, which ramped up production to meet both domestic and export orders.

Government infrastructure spending and favorable policy measures also played a role in boosting market confidence. The sentiment among market participants became optimistic once again, with expectations of stable demand through the end of the year.

Q3 2024 marked a period of intensified pressure for the iron ore markets in Australia, Brazil, and China, as all three regions saw a pronounced quarter-on-quarter decline in prices. This sharp drop led to a more pessimistic sentiment among market participants, with concerns mounting over excess supply and persistently weak demand from the steel industry.

In Australia and Brazil, producers responded by scaling back production and postponing expansion plans, while traders became increasingly risk averse. The mood in China also turned cautious, as the anticipated recovery in construction and manufacturing failed to materialize, dampening hopes for a near-term rebound. The overall market environment was characterized by heightened uncertainty and a focus on inventory management rather than growth.

On the other hand, India experienced a significant decline in prices during Q3, which softened the previously bullish sentiment. The drop was largely attributed to seasonal factors and a temporary slowdown in domestic steel demand. Despite this setback, Indian market participants remained hopeful that supportive government policies would help revive demand in the coming quarters.

Q3 2024 saw a significant reversal, with prices dropping to USD 57.76/DMT a 10.6% decrease from the previous quarter. This decline was largely attributed to seasonal factors, as the monsoon season typically disrupts mining operations, leading to reduced activity and softer demand from steel mills.

Additionally, some stockpiling from earlier quarters may have eased immediate supply pressures, contributing to the price correction. Market sentiment turned cautious, with participants focusing on inventory management and awaiting clearer signals of demand recovery post-monsoon.

In Q2 2024, the iron ore market across Australia, Brazil, and China continued to face a subdued environment, as all three regions recorded a further quarter-on-quarter decline in prices. This persistent downward trend weighed on market sentiment, prompting producers and traders to adopt a more cautious stance. The ongoing price softness was largely attributed to tepid demand from the steel sector, especially in China, where construction and manufacturing activity remained below expectations.

As a result, Australian and Brazilian exporters focused on operational efficiency and cost controls, while also exploring new markets to offset weaker Chinese demand. Despite these challenges, there was a sense of resilience, with stakeholders hoping for stabilization in the second half of the year. In contrast, India experienced a notable improvement in market mood, as prices rose compared to the previous quarter.

This upward momentum was driven by sustained domestic demand and government-led infrastructure projects, which provided a buffer against global headwinds. The divergence in regional performance highlighted the importance of local factors in shaping overall market sentiment during Q2 2024.

The upward trend continued in Q2 2024, as prices climbed further to USD 64.58/DMT marking a 4.5% quarter-on-quarter increase. This steady growth was supported by ongoing infrastructure development and healthy steel production, which maintained strong demand for iron ore.

Furthermore, limited imports and a focus on domestic sourcing kept the supply-demand balance tight. The Indian market remained confident, with stakeholders expecting continued momentum, although there was growing awareness of potential headwinds such as global market volatility and monsoon-related mining slowdowns.

In the first quarter of 2024, the iron ore market across these major regions was marked by a mix of cautious optimism and regional divergence in sentiment. Australia, Brazil, and China all experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline in prices compared to Q4 2023, which led to a more subdued market mood among producers and traders. The softer pricing environment in these countries was primarily attributed to easing demand from major importers, particularly China, where steel production growth showed signs of moderation.

As a result, market participants in Australia and Brazil adopted a more conservative approach, focusing on cost management and operational efficiency to navigate the challenging landscape. In contrast, India stood out with a notable increase in iron ore prices during Q1 2024, bucking the trend seen in the other regions. This upward movement was driven by robust domestic demand, especially from the steel sector, and supported by government infrastructure initiatives.

The positive price momentum in India fostered a more optimistic sentiment among miners and traders, encouraging higher production and investment in the sector. Overall, while the global iron ore market in Q1 2024 faced headwinds due to weaker international demand, India’s strong performance provided a bright spot, highlighting the importance of regional dynamics in shaping market sentiment.

In Q1 2024, Indian iron ore prices rose sharply from USD 55.4/DMT in Q4 2023 to INR USD 61.77/MT reflecting an impressive quarter-on-quarter increase of about 11.2%. This surge was primarily driven by robust domestic demand, especially from the steel and infrastructure sectors, which continued to benefit from government-led construction projects and economic recovery initiatives.

Additionally, supply constraints due to mining disruptions and logistical challenges in some regions contributed to the price hike. The overall market sentiment during this quarter was bullish, with miners and traders optimistic about sustained demand and favorable policy support.

Technical Specifications of Iron Ore Price Trends

Product Description

Iron ore is a naturally occurring rock or mineral from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. It is primarily composed of iron oxides, most commonly hematite (Fe₂O₃) and magnetite (Fe₃O₄), and varies in colour from dark grey and deep purple to rusty red and bright yellow. Iron ore is the essential raw material for steel production, with about 98% of mined iron ore used to make steel for construction, transportation, infrastructure, and manufacturing. The iron content of ore typically ranges from 48% to 72%, depending on the mineral type, with hematite and magnetite being the richest sources.

Identifiers and Classification:

  • HS Code – 260111


Iron Ore Synonyms:

  • Iron ore
  • Ironstone
  • Hematite
  • Magnetite
  • Taconite
  • Goethite
  • Limonite
  • Siderite
  • Iron oxide
  • Iron mineral


Iron ore Grades Specific Price Assessment:

Iron ore fines 62%min 2mm Price Trend

Iron ore fines 65% min Price Trend

Iron ore fines 64% Price Trend

Iron ore Global Trade and Shipment Terms

  • Quotation Terms (Product & Country Specific): 20000-50000 MT
  • Packaging Type (Product & Country Specific): Bulk


Incoterms Referenced in Iron ore Price Reporting

Shipping Term  Location  Definition 
FOB Brisbane  Brisbane, Australia  Iron ore Export price from Australia 
FOB Santos  Santos, Brazil  Iron ore Export price from Brazil 
CIF-Qingdao  Qingdao, China  Iron ore imported price of China 
EX Bailadila  Bailadila, India  Domestically Traded iron ore price in India 

*Quotation Terms refers to the quantity range specified for the Iron ore being quoted or offered in a commercial transaction.

**Packaging Type refers to standard packaging size commonly used for Iron Ore packing, ease of handling, transportation, and storage in industrial and commercial applications.

Key Iron ore Miners

Miners 
Vale (Brazil)  
BHP Group (Australia)  
Rio Tinto (Australia/UK)  
Fortescue Metals Group (Australia)  
ArcelorMittal (Luxembourg/Global)  
China Baowu Steel Group (China)  
Hebei Iron and Steel Group (China)  
NMDC Limited (India) 

Iron Ore Industrial Applications

iron ore market share end use

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Iron Ore prices

  • Impact on Investment and Financing: Elevated interest rates globally, particularly in major economies like the U.S. and Europe, made financing more expensive for businesses.
  • Global Supply Chain Disruption (2022): The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions disrupted supply chains, leading to price volatility in various commodities, including Iron ore.
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2019-2020): The global pandemic led to a significant decline in demand for Iron ore-intensive industries, such as steelmaking and automotive manufacturing, causing prices to plummet.
  • Global Economic Downturn (2019-2020): The global economic slowdown, particularly in sectors like steel and automotive, led to reduced demand for Iron ore, resulting in lower prices.

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global iron ore price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the iron ore market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence iron ore prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely iron ore market data.

Track PriceWatch's iron ore price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major Iron ore production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire Iron ore supply chain, from raw material availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact Iron ore prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on Iron ore production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.
  • Economic Shifts: PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging, to predict shifts in Iron ore demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Iron ore production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming Iron ore production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global Iron ore pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast Iron ore prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Iron ore pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Iron Ore Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for iron ore. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Commodity prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including:

 Production cost: Production costs directly influence commodity prices. When production expenses rise, such as through higher raw material or labor costs, commodity prices typically increase. Conversely, lower production cost leads to reduced prices of particular commodity.

Supply and Demand: The fundamental driver of commodity prices is the balance between supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise, and vice versa.  

Economic Growth: Global economic growth, particularly in emerging markets, can increase demand for commodities, driving prices higher.  

Geopolitical Events: Political instability, conflicts, and trade tensions can disrupt supply chains, affecting commodity prices.  

Natural Disasters: Weather events such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes can impact the production and availability of certain commodities.  

Speculation: Financial speculators can influence commodity prices through their trading activities.  

Government Policies: Government policies, such as tariffs, subsidies, and regulations, can impact the production, consumption, and trade of commodities.  

PriceWatch, a leading procurement intelligence firm, offers a comprehensive suite of tools and services to help you effectively track commodity prices.

Some of the key benefits of using PriceWatch include:

 Real-time Data: Access to up-to-date market intelligence and data on commodity supply chains.

Expert Analysis: Insights from industry experts to interpret market trends and identify potential risks.

Risk Assessment: Tools to assess supply chain vulnerabilities and develop mitigation strategies.

Benchmarking: Comparisons of commodity prices and sourcing practices to optimize procurement decisions.

Supplier Intelligence: Detailed information on suppliers, including their financial health, production capacity, and sustainability practices.

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