Iron Ore Pricing Assessment

  • Commodity Pricing

iron ore Markets Covered: 

auAustralia
brBrazil
cnChina
inIndia

iron ore Markets Covered: 

Global iron ore Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast​

Q1 2025 

In Q1 2025, Australia’s Iron Ore price saw a modest increase from 90 to 91/DMT, reflecting a 1.1% quarter-on-quarter rise. This slight uptick was primarily attributed to a combination of steady demand from key Asian markets and mild supply constraints caused by weather-related disruptions in certain mining regions. The market in Australia responded positively to this upward movement, with participants expressing cautious optimism that the worst of the previous year’s volatility was behind them. In Brazil, prices remained unchanged, leading to a stable and neutral market sentiment as both producers and buyers awaited clearer signals of demand recovery.

China experienced a marginal price increase, which was met with mild optimism, as it suggested a gradual improvement in industrial activity and steel production. Meanwhile, India recorded a notable price rise, which boosted market confidence and reinforced expectations of strong domestic demand, especially from the construction and infrastructure sectors. Overall, while the price changes were modest, the general sentiment across all regions leaned towards cautious optimism and hope for a more stable year ahead. 

Q4 2024 

In Q4 2024, the Iron Ore market began to show signs of stabilization, with Australia, Brazil, and China all recording modest quarter-on-quarter price increases. This shift contributed to a cautiously optimistic sentiment among producers and traders, who viewed the price uptick as a potential turning point after several challenging quarters. The improvement was driven by seasonal restocking activities and early indications of a recovery in steel demand, particularly in China.

Australian and Brazilian exporters welcomed the more favorable conditions, which allowed for improved planning and a gradual resumption of previously delayed projects. In China, the market mood was buoyed by government stimulus measures aimed at supporting infrastructure and industrial activity. India, meanwhile, experienced a robust rebound in prices, returning to levels seen earlier in the year. This resurgence was underpinned by renewed domestic demand and a positive outlook for the construction sector, which lifted overall market confidence. Across all regions, there was a sense of cautious optimism, with stakeholders’ hopeful that the worst of the downturn was over and that a more stable period lay ahead. 

Q3 2024 

Q3 2024 marked a period of intensified pressure for the Iron Ore markets in Australia, Brazil, and China, as all three regions saw a pronounced quarter-on-quarter decline in prices. This sharp drop led to a more pessimistic sentiment among market participants, with concerns mounting over excess supply and persistently weak demand from the steel industry. In Australia and Brazil, producers responded by scaling back production and postponing expansion plans, while traders became increasingly risk averse. The mood in China also turned cautious, as the anticipated recovery in construction and manufacturing failed to materialize, dampening hopes for a near-term rebound.

The overall market environment was characterized by heightened uncertainty and a focus on inventory management rather than growth. On the other hand, India experienced a significant decline in prices during Q3, which softened the previously bullish sentiment. The drop was largely attributed to seasonal factors and a temporary slowdown in domestic steel demand. Despite this setback, Indian market participants remained hopeful that supportive government policies would help revive demand in the coming quarters. 

Q2 2024 

In Q2 2024, the Iron Ore market across Australia, Brazil, and China continued to face a subdued environment, as all three regions recorded a further quarter-on-quarter decline in prices. This persistent downward trend weighed on market sentiment, prompting producers and traders to adopt a more cautious stance.

The ongoing price softness was largely attributed to tepid demand from the steel sector, especially in China, where construction and manufacturing activity remained below expectations. As a result, Australian and Brazilian exporters focused on operational efficiency and cost controls, while also exploring new markets to offset weaker Chinese demand. Despite these challenges, there was a sense of resilience, with stakeholders hoping for stabilization in the second half of the year.

In contrast, India experienced a notable improvement in market mood, as prices rose compared to the previous quarter. This upward momentum was driven by sustained domestic demand and government-led infrastructure projects, which provided a buffer against global headwinds. The divergence in regional performance highlighted the importance of local factors in shaping overall market sentiment during Q2 2024. 

Q1 2024 

In the first quarter of 2024, the Iron Ore market across these major regions was marked by a mix of cautious optimism and regional divergence in sentiment. Australia, Brazil, and China all experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline in prices compared to Q4 2023, which led to a more subdued market mood among producers and traders.

The softer pricing environment in these countries was primarily attributed to easing demand from major importers, particularly China, where steel production growth showed signs of moderation. As a result, market participants in Australia and Brazil adopted a more conservative approach, focusing on cost management and operational efficiency to navigate the challenging landscape. In contrast, India stood out with a notable increase in iron ore prices during Q1 2024, bucking the trend seen in the other regions.

This upward movement was driven by robust domestic demand, especially from the steel sector, and supported by government infrastructure initiatives. The positive price momentum in India fostered a more optimistic sentiment among miners and traders, encouraging higher production and investment in the sector. Overall, while the global iron ore market in Q1 2024 faced headwinds due to weaker international demand, India’s strong performance provided a bright spot, highlighting the importance of regional dynamics in shaping market sentiment. 

India iron ore Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

Q1 2025 

In Q1 2025, Indian iron ore prices dipped to USD 60.96/DMT a 5.6% decrease from Q4 2024. This moderation was likely due to a combination of factors, including increased supply as mining operations normalized and a slight slowdown in steel demand after the year-end rush. Some market participants also adopted a wait-and-see approach, anticipating potential changes in government policy or global market conditions. The overall sentiment was cautiously optimistic, with the market remaining fundamentally strong but more balanced compared to the previous quarter’s exuberance. 

Q4 2024 

In Q4 2024, prices rebounded sharply to 5,360, representing an USD 64.58/DMT quarter-on-quarter increase. The recovery was driven by the resumption of mining activities after the monsoon and renewed demand from the steel sector, which ramped up production to meet both domestic and export orders. Government infrastructure spending and favorable policy measures also played a role in boosting market confidence. The sentiment among market participants became optimistic once again, with expectations of stable demand through the end of the year. 

Q3 2024 

Q3 2024 saw a significant reversal, with prices dropping to USD 57.76/DMT a 10.6% decrease from the previous quarter. This decline was largely attributed to seasonal factors, as the monsoon season typically disrupts mining operations, leading to reduced activity and softer demand from steel mills. Additionally, some stockpiling from earlier quarters may have eased immediate supply pressures, contributing to the price correction. Market sentiment turned cautious, with participants focusing on inventory management and awaiting clearer signals of demand recovery post-monsoon.

Q2 2024 

The upward trend continued in Q2 2024, as prices climbed further to USD 64.58/DMT marking a 4.5% quarter-on-quarter increase. This steady growth was supported by ongoing infrastructure development and healthy steel production, which maintained strong demand for iron ore. Furthermore, limited imports and a focus on domestic sourcing kept the supply-demand balance tight. The Indian market remained confident, with stakeholders expecting continued momentum, although there was growing awareness of potential headwinds such as global market volatility and monsoon-related mining slowdowns. 

Q1 2024 
 
In Q1 2024, Indian iron ore prices rose sharply from USD 55.4/DMT in Q4 2023 to INR USD 61.77/MT reflecting an impressive quarter-on-quarter increase of about 11.2%. This surge was primarily driven by robust domestic demand, especially from the steel and infrastructure sectors, which continued to benefit from government-led construction projects and economic recovery initiatives. Additionally, supply constraints due to mining disruptions and logistical challenges in some regions contributed to the price hike. The overall market sentiment during this quarter was bullish, with miners and traders optimistic about sustained demand and favorable policy support. 

iron ore Parameters Covered: 

  • Hematite
  • Magnetite 
  • Australia
  • Brazil 
  • Iron ore (Steel production,  energy sector,  manufacturing and machinery,  transportation) 
  • India
  • China 

iron ore Parameters Covered: 

  • Hematite
  • Magnetite 
  • Australia
  • Brazil 
  • Iron ore (Steel production,  energy sector,  manufacturing and machinery,  transportation) 
  • India
  • China 

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global iron ore price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the iron ore market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence iron ore prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely iron ore market data.

Track PriceWatch's iron ore price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Iron Ore prices

  • Impact on Investment and Financing: Elevated interest rates globally, particularly in major economies like the U.S. and Europe, made financing more expensive for businesses.  
  • Global Supply Chain Disruption (2022): The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions disrupted supply chains, leading to price volatility in various commodities, including Iron ore. 
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2019-2020): The global pandemic led to a significant decline in demand for Iron ore-intensive industries, such as steelmaking and automotive manufacturing, causing prices to plummet. 
  • Global Economic Downturn (2019-2020): The global economic slowdown, particularly in sectors like steel and automotive, led to reduced demand for Iron ore, resulting in lower prices. 

 

These events underscore the Iron ore market’s vulnerability to global disruptions and highlight the need for continuous monitoring of supply-demand dynamics. 

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major Iron ore production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire Iron ore supply chain, from raw material availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics. 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact Iron ore prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing. 
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on Iron ore production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks. 
  • Economic Shifts: PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging, to predict shifts in Iron ore demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Iron ore production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately. 
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming Iron ore production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization. 

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments. 
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global Iron ore pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast Iron ore prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power. 
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes. 

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations. 
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice. 

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Iron Ore pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions. 

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

CAS No

HS Code

260111

Molecular Formula

iron ore

Iron ore is a naturally occurring rock or mineral from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. It is primarily composed of iron oxides, most commonly hematite (Fe₂O₃) and magnetite (Fe₃O₄), and varies in color from dark grey and deep purple to rusty red and bright yellow. Iron ore is the essential raw material for steel production, with about 98% of mined iron ore used to make steel for construction, transportation, infrastructure, and manufacturing. The iron content of ore typically ranges from 48% to 72%, depending on the mineral type, with hematite and magnetite being the richest sources.

Packaging Type

Bulk

Grades Covered

Iron ore fines 62%min, iron ore fines 65% min, iron ore fines 64%

Incoterms Used

FOB Brisbane (Australia), FOB Santos (Brazil), CIF-Qingdao (China), Ex- Bailadila (India)

Synonym

Iron ore

PriceWatch Quotation Terms:

20000-50000 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property  Specification 
Fe Content  62% (±1%) 
SiO₂ (Silica)  ≤ 6.0% 
Al₂O₃ (Alumina)  ≤ 2.5% 
P (Phosphorus)  ≤ 0.08% 
S (Sulphur)  ≤ 0.02% 
Moisture (at Delivery)  ≤ 8.0% 
LOI (Loss on Ignition)  ≤ 4.5% 
Size (Lump)  10–40 mm (90% min) 
Size (Fines)  Below 10 mm (90% min) 

Applications

  • Steel Production: Most of the iron, about 98% is used to produce steel, making it a critical raw material for the global iron and steel industries. 
  • Energy Sector: Iron ore-based steel is crucial for renewable and conventional energy infrastructure, including wind turbine towers, solar panel frames, and hydroelectric facilities. 
  • Manufacturing and Machinery: Iron ore is fundamental in producing machinery, industrial equipment, appliances, and vehicles. Its transformation into steel allows for the creation of precise components for automobiles, aircraft, ships, and consumer goods. 
  • Transportation: Steel made from iron ore is used in railways, ships, vehicles, and pipelines, forming the backbone of global transportation networks. 
Iron Ore price provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for iron ore. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Commodity prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including:

 Production cost: Production costs directly influence commodity prices. When production expenses rise, such as through higher raw material or labor costs, commodity prices typically increase. Conversely, lower production cost leads to reduced prices of particular commodity.

Supply and Demand: The fundamental driver of commodity prices is the balance between supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise, and vice versa.  

Economic Growth: Global economic growth, particularly in emerging markets, can increase demand for commodities, driving prices higher.  

Geopolitical Events: Political instability, conflicts, and trade tensions can disrupt supply chains, affecting commodity prices.  

Natural Disasters: Weather events such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes can impact the production and availability of certain commodities.  

Speculation: Financial speculators can influence commodity prices through their trading activities.  

Government Policies: Government policies, such as tariffs, subsidies, and regulations, can impact the production, consumption, and trade of commodities.  

Many commodities are derived from feedstocks, which are raw materials used in their production. The price of feedstocks can significantly influence the price of the final commodity. For example, the price of crude oil affects the price of gasoline and other petroleum products. When feedstock prices rise, it typically leads to higher commodity prices as well.  

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