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オランダIn the first quarter of 2024, Palm Oil prices witnessed a sharp increase owing to the production disruption in the key producing region of Southeast Asia. In Indonesia and Malaysia, Palm oil production has been hit hard by extreme weather and logistical issues leading to a drop in production by 2 million metric tons.
Palm oil prices were further exaggerated by firm demand sentiment in the global market from crucial sectors including the food industry. Meanwhile, the biodiesel sector is experiencing a slight 1.5% decline in demand due to changing energy policies and a shift towards alternative fuels. The Palm oil market faced tight supply and inclined prices during the first three months.
In the first half of Q2 2024, the palm oil market continued to struggle with ongoing production challenges caused by extreme weather and logistical disruptions. Palm oil prices increase production constraints persisted, despite these issues, the demand for palm oil from the food industry stayed strong, with a 3% increase in processed food consumption.
In May 2024, Palm oil prices stabilized as the 供給 dynamics strengthened in the Southeast Asian market. Production rates improved with increased volume available in the market easing the pressure from the Palm oil prices in Indonesia and Malaysia.
In the third quarter of 2024, the Palm oil market is seeing upward price pressure due to the tight supply situation coupled with steady demand from the food industry. The market remains sensitive to global supply chain disruptions, including those related to transportation and export restrictions.
As of August 2024, Palm oil prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, currently averaging around USD/MT 700 per metric ton, reflecting a 7% increase from the previous month. This price movement is attributed to many factors affecting supply and demand dynamics.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2024 and beyond, there are expectations for a partial recovery in production as weather conditions stabilize and labor issues are addressed. However, the Palm oil market is likely to remain volatile through 2030.
Factors such as ongoing climate change impacts, changes in trade policies, and evolving consumer preferences towards sustainable and alternative oils will influence price fluctuations and market stability.
分子量[g/mol］
CAS番号
HSコード
分子式
包装タイプ
対象学年
使用されるインコタームズ
同義語
PriceWatch 見積もり条件：
元ロケーション この契約は、売り手が商品をその構内で入手できるようにし、買い手が送料、保険料、その他の手数料を含むすべての輸送費を負担する配送契約を指す。
CIF： CIFとは、商品のCost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF)条件のこと。CIF条件では、売主は商品が仕向港に到着するまでの商品代金、保険料、運賃を負担する。
FDだ： FDとはFree Deliveredの略で、売り手が商品を場所/港に届ける全責任を負うことを意味します。これにより、買い手は輸入関税を除くすべての必要な費用を負担した上で、指定された港で商品を受け取ることができます。
本船渡し： FOBとは、Free On-Board shippingの略で、売り手が商品を港に届ける費用とリスクを負うことを指します。商品が本船に積み込まれた後は、船積みや保険を含むすべての費用について買い手に責任が移ります。
| プロパティ | 仕様 |
| Physical state | solid |
| カラー | light yellow |
| 匂い | odorless – characteristic |
| pH (value) | not applicable |
| Melting point/freezing point | 25 – 40 °C |
| Initial boiling point and boiling range | >350 °C |
| 引火点 | >300 °C |
| Flammability (solid, gas) | This material is combustible, but will not ignite readily |
| 蒸気圧 | <1 mbar at 20 °C |
| 密度 | 0.88 g/cm³ at 20 °C |
| Dynamic viscosity | 25 cP at 50 °C |
| Solvent content | 100 % |
| Solid content | 100 % |
アプリケーション
Palm oil is used in cooking oil, processed foods, personal care products, and household cleaners. It is also found in biodiesel, lubricants, and animal feed. Despite its versatility, it faces environmental criticism, prompting moves towards more sustainable practices.
1.Adverse Weather Conditions (2019-2020)
The El Niño weather pattern hit hard between 2019 and 2020, bringing droughts that crippled palm oil production in key countries like Indonesia and Malaysia. With crops suffering from lack of water, yields dropped, leading to a noticeable spike in palm oil prices due to the shortfall in supply.
2.COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2022)
When COVID-19 swept across the globe, it did not just affect health—it also disrupted supply chains everywhere, including in the palm oil industry. Plantations and mills faced labor shortages due to lockdowns and travel restrictions, which meant fewer workers to harvest and process palm oil. The disruption caused significant price swings as production slowed down.
3.Environmental Regulations and Sustainability Concerns (2020-2023)
In recent years, palm oil has faced increasing pressure from international regulators due to its environmental impact, particularly deforestation. The European Union, for example, imposed stricter rules on the sourcing of palm oil, which affected trade and caused price shifts. At the same time, the push for more sustainable palm oil practices has raised production costs, also influencing market prices.
4.Trade Tensions and Export Restrictions (2021-2022)
In 2022, Indonesia temporarily banned palm oil exports to stabilize domestic prices, leading to major disruptions in the global market. This move, meant to ensure local supply, caused a surge in international prices, and added to the volatility. Trade tensions between producing countries and major importers also played a role in price fluctuations.
5.Shift Towards Alternatives (2023-2024)
Recently, consumers have started leaning towards more sustainable and plant-based alternatives to palm oil. Driven by health and environmental concerns, this shift in preference has dented the demand for palm oil, affecting its market share and prices. The industry is feeling the impact as it tries to adapt to these changing consumer trends.
PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global palm oil price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the palm oil market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.
In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence palm oil prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely palm oil market data.
Track PriceWatch's palm oil price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.
リアルタイム市場データ： PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This guarantees that our evaluations accurately represent the latest market trends and conditions.
現場のインテリジェンス： 当社のチームは、主要なグアーガム生産拠点において、生産者、サプライヤー、トレーダー、エンドユーザーなど主要な市場参加者から直接知見を収集しています。このような現地レベルのインテリジェンスは、地域ごとの市場ダイナミクスを理解する上で極めて重要です。
サプライチェーンの監視 We track the entire palm oil supply chain, from production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.
地政学的緊張： PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact palm oil prices. Given the global nature of palm oil production and its heavy reliance on specific regions, any political instability, sanctions, or trade barriers can disrupt supply chains. These disruptions can lead to immediate price fluctuations and long-term shifts in market dynamics, affecting everything from production costs to the availability of palm oil in international markets.
自然災害と気候変動： We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as floods or droughts, on palm oil plantations and production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like Southeast Asia. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks, given the significant role they play in palm oil production.
経済の変化： PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., food processing, cosmetics, biofuels), to predict shifts in palm oil demand and corresponding price movements.
この調査手法により、Price-Watchは最も正確でタイムリー、かつ実用的な安息香酸の価格評価を提供し、お客様が市場動向を先取りし、十分な情報に基づいたビジネス上の意思決定を行えるよう支援します。
分子量[g/mol］
CAS番号
HSコード
分子式
包装タイプ
対象学年
使用されるインコタームズ
同義語
PriceWatch 見積もり条件：
元ロケーション この契約は、売り手が商品をその構内で入手できるようにし、買い手が送料、保険料、その他の手数料を含むすべての輸送費を負担する配送契約を指す。
CIF： CIFとは、商品のCost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF)条件のこと。CIF条件では、売主は商品が仕向港に到着するまでの商品代金、保険料、運賃を負担する。
FDだ： FDとはFree Deliveredの略で、売り手が商品を場所/港に届ける全責任を負うことを意味します。これにより、買い手は輸入関税を除くすべての必要な費用を負担した上で、指定された港で商品を受け取ることができます。
本船渡し： FOBとは、Free On-Board shippingの略で、売り手が商品を港に届ける費用とリスクを負うことを指します。商品が本船に積み込まれた後は、船積みや保険を含むすべての費用について買い手に責任が移ります。
| プロパティ | 仕様 |
| Physical state | solid |
| カラー | light yellow |
| 匂い | odorless – characteristic |
| pH (value) | not applicable |
| Melting point/freezing point | 25 – 40 °C |
| Initial boiling point and boiling range | >350 °C |
| 引火点 | >300 °C |
| Flammability (solid, gas) | This material is combustible, but will not ignite readily |
| 蒸気圧 | <1 mbar at 20 °C |
| 密度 | 0.88 g/cm³ at 20 °C |
| Dynamic viscosity | 25 cP at 50 °C |
| Solvent content | 100 % |
| Solid content | 100 % |
アプリケーション
Palm oil is used in cooking oil, processed foods, personal care products, and household cleaners. It is also found in biodiesel, lubricants, and animal feed. Despite its versatility, it faces environmental criticism, prompting moves towards more sustainable practices.
The pricing of palm oil is influenced by several key factors, including global demand and supply dynamics, production costs, and weather conditions. Fluctuations in crude oil prices also play a role, as palm oil is often used as a biofuel. Additionally, trade policies, tariffs, and the economic situation in major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia can significantly impact palm oil prices. Understanding these factors is essential for procurement heads to make informed purchasing decisions.
Procurement heads can forecast palm oil price trends by analyzing historical price data, monitoring global supply and demand, and considering external market influences such as currency fluctuations and geopolitical events. Engaging with industry reports, subscribing to market analysis services, and leveraging insights from agricultural experts can also aid in creating accurate forecasts. This proactive approach allows for better planning and budgeting in procurement strategies.
Sustainability certifications, such as RSPO (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil), can affect palm oil pricing. Certified sustainable palm oil may command a premium price due to the growing demand for environmentally friendly products. For procurement heads, understanding the implications of these certifications is crucial, as they align with corporate sustainability goals and consumer preferences. While the initial costs may be higher, sourcing certified palm oil can enhance brand reputation and open new market opportunities.
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