low-density polyethylene Pricing Assessment

Markets Covered:

United States

Mexico

Brazil

Belgium

Germany

France

Italy

Saudi Arabia

China

India

Low-Density Polyethylene Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In the first quarter of 2024, Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) prices experienced a notable upward trend across multiple regions, including North America, Asia-Pacific (APAC), the Middle East and Africa (MEA), and Europe, with the US market seeing a remarkable 19% increase. Several factors contributed to this rise. Strong demand from key industries, particularly the construction sector, played a central role. Increased construction activity, coupled with positive business sentiment, helped drive economic growth and boosted confidence in future market conditions. Additionally, rising feedstock costs, particularly for Ethylene—driven by higher upstream prices for Naphtha and Crude Oil—led to increased production costs, which further contributed to the rise in LDPE prices. The US market, in particular, experienced steady price increases throughout the quarter.

By the second quarter of 2024, the European LDPE market faced significant challenges, with prices coming under persistent downward pressure. This decline was primarily driven by reduced demand from key downstream industries such as construction and automotive. The drop in demand was compounded by high inventory levels, resulting in an oversupply of LDPE, even in the face of occasional logistical disruptions, including severe weather events in Germany. Additionally, increased global exports from the US and the Middle East intensified competition, further exacerbating the supply glut. Economic uncertainty and rising inflation across the Eurozone dampened consumer confidence, which in turn suppressed overall demand. Germany saw the sharpest price drop, with a 9.3% decrease, reflecting broader trends across the region during this period.

At the start of the third quarter in 2024, LDPE prices began to show an upward trend again, with a 6% increase month-over-month. This rise was largely due to supply constraints, including reduced import volumes and lower domestic production. The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea further disrupted supply chains, with vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to congestion at alternative routes and key transshipment hubs essential for trade between Asia and Europe. These logistical challenges significantly affected global supply chains and intensified supply shortages in the European LDPE market. However, by early August, freight rates began to stabilize, which could impact LDPE prices in the subsequent months. At the end of the first month of Q3 2024, LDPE prices in Hamburg, on a free-delivery (FD) basis, were approximately USD 1,339 per metric ton.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2024, LDPE prices are expected to decline following the price increases seen in Q3. This potential decrease is likely due to lower demand as some regions enter the summer season and as freight rates normalize. The sharp increase in freight rates, caused by the Red Sea crisis and port congestion, is expected to stabilize, which may further influence LDPE pricing. Additionally, demand is projected to soften as construction activity typically slows in colder regions, although it may remain steady in warmer climates. The demand for LDPE agricultural films is also expected to decrease, except in areas with winter crop cycles or regions that engage in year-round agricultural production.

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is your trusted resource for tracking global low-density polyethylene price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the low-density polyethylene market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

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Track 's low-density polyethylene price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in low-density polyethylene prices

Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown (2023–Present): In 2023, global inflation driven by high energy costs and supply chain constraints raised production costs for LDPE. Simultaneously, economic slowdowns and high inflation in key regions such as the Eurozone reduced consumer spending, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors. As a result, LDPE prices faced downward pressure despite increased input costs, reflecting weaker overall demand.

Slowing Global Economy and Rising Crude Oil Prices (2019): In 2019, geopolitical tensions, particularly the attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, led to rising crude oil prices, which in turn increased feedstock Ethylene costs. However, a simultaneous global economic slowdown reduced demand for LDPE, especially in construction and consumer goods sectors. This combination of higher production costs and weakened demand caused mixed price movements, with LDPE prices rising initially before stabilizing later in the year.

Crude Oil Price Collapse (2015–2016): The global collapse in crude oil prices during 2015–2016, driven by oversupply and OPEC’s decision to maintain production, caused a sharp decline in oil prices. Since Ethylene, the primary feedstock for LDPE, is derived from Naphtha (a crude oil by-product), production costs decreased significantly. Consequently, LDPE prices dropped considerably during this period, reflecting the lower input costs across global markets.

Methodology and Specifications

low-density polyethylene Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data: aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.

On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major LDPE production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.

Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire LDPE supply chain, from raw material availability (e.g., Ethylene) to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock Ethylene prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact LDPE prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.

Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on LDPE production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the U.S. Gulf Coast. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.

Economic Shifts: evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging), to predict shifts in LDPE demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global LDPE production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.

Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming LDPE production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: provides in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.

Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global LDPE pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast LDPE prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.

Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.

Ongoing Support: offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable LDPE pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

10,000 to 200,000 g/mol

CAS No

9002-88-4

HS Code

390110

Molecular Formula

(C₂H₄)ₙ

low-density polyethylene

Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) is a highly versatile thermoplastic polymer widely recognized for its flexibility, durability, and lightweight nature. Derived from the polymerization of ethylene, LDPE has a lower density compared to other polyethylene types, giving it a soft, pliable structure. This makes it ideal for various applications, such as packaging films, plastic bags, agricultural films, and containers. It offers excellent resistance to moisture, chemicals, and impact, which ensures its durability in both every day and industrial environments. LDPE is easily processed through extrusion and moulding techniques, making it a preferred material for manufacturing flexible packaging, squeeze bottles, and protective films. Its widespread use extends to electrical insulation, construction materials, and agricultural applications. With its recyclable nature, LDPE also supports sustainability efforts, making it a reliable and eco-friendly material choice across multiple industries.

Packaging Type

25 Kg Bag

Grades Covered

Film Grade, Injection Moulding Grade

Incoterms Used

FOB Houston, CIF Manzanillo (USA), CIF Santos (USA), FD Antwerp, FD Genoa, FD Hamburg, FD Le Havre, FOB Jeddah, Ex-Hazira, CIF Nhava Sheva (Saudi Arabia), CIF Shanghai (Saudi Arabia)

Synonym

LDPE, Low-Density PE

Quotation Terms:

25-28 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property	Specification (Film Grade)	Specification (Injection Moulding Grade)
Melt Flow Index	1gm/10 min	30gm/10 min
Vicat Softening Point	100-110⁰C	84⁰C
Tensile Strength	12-12.5MPa	10MPa
Elongation	700-800%	40%
Density	0.918 g/cc	0.918 g/cc
Melting Temperature	120-130⁰C	110-130⁰C

Applications

Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) is a versatile polymer with a wide range of applications across various industries due to its unique properties, such as high tensile strength, flexibility, and impact resistance. Its primary use is in the packaging industry, where it is commonly used to manufacture stretch films, plastic bags, and liners for both consumer and industrial packaging. LDPE is also widely used in the production of agricultural films, offering durability and protection in harsh environmental conditions. Additionally, it is used in the manufacturing of household goods like containers, lids, and toys, as well as in the production of geomembranes and pond liners for environmental applications. Its excellent chemical resistance and durability make it ideal for piping and tubing applications, particularly in water and gas distribution systems.

Disclaimer

Low-Density Polyethylene price provided by is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for low-density polyethylene. disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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Frequently asked questions

What factors influence the price of Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE)? +

LDPE prices are primarily influenced by the cost of Ethylene, derived from Crude Oil and Naphtha. Other key factors include supply and demand dynamics, with increased demand from industries like packaging and construction driving prices up, while oversupply reduces them. Logistics issues, such as shipping disruptions or high freight rates, and regional market conditions, including economic growth and local regulations, also play a role in LDPE pricing.

How can procurement managers secure the best price for LDPE? +

Procurement managers can secure the best LDPE prices by monitoring global market trends, locking in long-term contracts to mitigate price volatility, and buying in bulk to negotiate better rates. Diversifying suppliers across different regions can also provide leverage and reduce risk, ensuring more competitive pricing.

How do global events affect LDPE prices? +

Global events like geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and economic shifts can significantly impact LDPE prices. Rising crude oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or reduced demand from economic slowdowns can drive prices up or down, making it essential for procurement managers to stay informed and anticipate market shifts.