linear low-density polyethylene Pricing Assessment

Markets Covered:

United States

Canada

Mexico

Brazil

Belgium

Germany

France

Italy

Saudi Arabia

China

India

Linear Low-Density Polyethylene Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In Q1 2024, Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices saw a bullish trend across the North American, APAC, MEA, and European markets, with a notable 21% rise in the US market. Several factors drove this upward momentum. Strong demand from key industries, particularly the construction sector, played a significant role. Increased construction activities and positive business sentiment fuelled overall economic growth, boosting confidence in future prospects. Additionally, the rising cost of feedstock Ethylene, caused by surging upstream Naphtha and Crude Oil prices, heightened production costs, further pushing LLDPE prices upward. The US experienced the most significant price shifts, with a steady increase in LLDPE prices throughout the quarter.

In Q2 2024, the European Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market experienced significant challenges, characterized by sustained downward pressure on prices. Several factors contributed to this decline, including weakened demand from key downstream sectors such as construction and automotive. This reduced demand was compounded by high inventory levels, resulting in an oversupply despite periodic disruptions in logistics, particularly due to severe weather conditions in Germany. Additionally, increased global exports from the USA and the Middle East intensified competitive pressures, further aggravating the supply glut. Economic uncertainty and rising inflation across the Eurozone also dampened consumer confidence and spending, which further constrained demand. Germany experienced the most notable price fluctuations, with a 13% price decline, exemplifying the broader market dynamics during the quarter.

In the first month of Q3 2024, Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices exhibited an upward trend, recording a 6% month-over-month increase. This rise was primarily attributed to supply constraints stemming from reduced import volumes and decreased domestic production. Additionally, the ongoing Red Sea crisis further intensified supply chain disruptions, forcing vessels to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This rerouting caused congestion at alternative routes and transshipment hubs critical for trade between Asia and Europe, as reported by key market participants. These logistical disruptions significantly impacted global supply chains, exacerbating supply shortages in the European LLDPE market. However, in the initial week of August, freight rates began to normalize, which may influence product prices in the coming months. By the end of the first month of Q3 2024, LLDPE prices on a free-delivery (FD) basis in Hamburg hovered around USD 1,205/MT.

It is anticipated that the price of the product may decrease in Q4 2024 following the price hike in Q3 2024. This potential decline is expected to result from lower demand associated with the arrival of the summer season in some regions and the normalization of freight rates. The freight rates, which had significantly increased due to the Red Sea crisis and port congestion, are likely to stabilize, influencing the pricing dynamics of the product. Additionally, demand is projected to soften as downstream construction activity typically slows in colder regions, although it may remain stable in warmer climates. Furthermore, the demand for LLDPE agricultural films is expected to decrease, except in areas with winter crop cycles or regions with year-round agricultural activities.

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is your trusted resource for tracking global linear low-density polyethylene price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the linear low-density polyethylene market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

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Track 's linear low-density polyethylene price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in linear low-density polyethylene prices

Crude Oil Price Collapse (2015–2016): The global crude oil price collapse during 2015–2016, driven by oversupply and OPEC’s decision to maintain production, caused a sharp decline in oil prices. As Ethylene, the primary feedstock for LLDPE, is derived from naphtha (a Crude Oil by-product), this led to a significant reduction in production costs. Consequently, LLDPE prices fell substantially during this period, reflecting the lower input costs across global markets.

Slowing Global Economy and Rising Crude Oil Prices (2019): In 2019, rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, increased feedstock costs for Ethylene. However, a simultaneous global economic slowdown dampened demand for LLDPE, particularly in construction and consumer goods sectors. This combination of higher production costs and weaker demand caused mixed price movements, with LLDPE prices rising initially but stabilizing later in the year.

Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown (2023-Present): In 2023, global inflation driven by high energy costs and supply chain constraints led to rising production costs for LLDPE. At the same time, economic slowdowns, and high inflation in key regions, such as the Eurozone, dampened consumer spending, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors. As a result, LLDPE prices faced downward pressure despite elevated input costs, reflecting weaker overall demand.

Methodology and Specifications

linear low-density polyethylene Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data: aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.

On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major LLDPE production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.

Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire LLDPE supply chain, from raw material availability (e.g., Ethylene) to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact LLDPE prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.

Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on LLDPE production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the U.S. Gulf Coast. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.

Economic Shifts: evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging), to predict shifts in LLDPE demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global LLDPE production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.

Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming LLDPE production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: provides in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.

Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global LLDPE pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast LLDPE prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.

Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.

Ongoing Support: offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable LLDPE pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

10,000 to 200,000 g/mol

CAS No

9002-88-4

HS Code

39011010

Molecular Formula

(C₂H₄)ₙ

linear low-density polyethylene

Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) is a flexible and durable thermoplastic polymer known for its excellent impact and puncture resistance. Produced through the copolymerization of ethylene and alpha-olefins, LLDPE is widely used in packaging films, agricultural covers, and industrial applications like geomembranes and piping. Its chemical and UV resistance, combined with its ability to maintain flexibility even at low temperatures, makes it ideal for both outdoor and heavy-duty uses. LLDPE is also used in blow moulding and rotational moulding for creating containers, toys, and other moulded products.

Packaging Type

25 Kg Bag

Grades Covered

Film Grade

Incoterms Used

FOB Houston, CIF Manzanillo (USA), CIF Montreal (USA), CIF Santos (USA), FD Antwerp, FD Genoa, FD Hamburg, FD Le Havre, FOB Jeddah, Ex-Hazira, CIF Nhava Sheva (Saudi Arabia), CIF Shanghai (Saudi Arabia)

Synonym

Linear Polyethylene, Linear Low-Density PE

Quotation Terms:

25-28 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property	Specification (Film Grade)
Melt Flow Index	1gm/10 min
Vicat Softening Point	100-110⁰C
Tensile Strength	12-12.5MPa
Elongation	700-800%
Density	0.918 g/cc
Melting Temperature	120-130⁰C

Applications

Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) is a versatile polymer with a wide range of applications across various industries due to its unique properties, such as high tensile strength, flexibility, and impact resistance. Its primary use is in the packaging industry, where it is commonly used to manufacture stretch films, plastic bags, and liners for both consumer and industrial packaging. LLDPE is also widely used in the production of agricultural films, offering durability and protection in harsh environmental conditions. Additionally, it is used in the manufacturing of household goods like containers, lids, and toys, as well as in the production of geomembranes and pond liners for environmental applications. Its excellent chemical resistance and durability make it ideal for piping and tubing applications, particularly in water and gas distribution systems.

Disclaimer

Linear Low-Density Polyethylene price provided by is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for linear low-density polyethylene. disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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Frequently asked questions

What factors influence LLDPE prices? +

LLDPE prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including:

Production cost: Production costs directly influence LLDPE prices. When production expenses rise, such as through higher raw material or labor costs, commodity prices typically increase. Conversely, lower production cost leads to reduced prices of commodities.

Supply and Demand: The fundamental driver of commodity prices is the balance between supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise, and vice versa.

Economic Growth: Global economic growth, particularly in emerging markets, can increase demand for commodities, driving prices higher.

Geopolitical Events: Political instability, conflicts, and trade tensions can disrupt supply chains, affecting commodity prices.

Natural Disasters: Weather events such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes can impact the production and availability of certain commodities.

Speculation: Financial speculators can influence commodity prices through their trading activities.

Government Policies: Government policies, such as tariffs, subsidies, and regulations, can impact the production, consumption, and trade of commodities.

How do feedstock prices impact LLDPE prices? +

Many commodities are derived from feedstocks, which are raw materials used in their production. The price of feedstocks can significantly influence the price of the final commodity. For example, the price of crude oil affects the price of gasoline and other petroleum products. When feedstock prices rise, it typically leads to higher commodity prices as well.

What is the relationship between LLDPE prices and inflation? +

Commodity prices can have a significant impact on inflation. When commodity prices rise, it can increase the cost of production for businesses, which may pass these costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This can lead to inflation, a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy.