liquified natural gas Pricing Assessment

Name: Liquified Natural Gas Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast
Creator: PriceWatch
Published: 2025-02-17T10:20:52+00:00
License: https://www.price-watch.ai/privacy-policy/

Markets Covered:

Australia

Qatar

United States

India

Liquified Natural Gas Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In Q1 2024, the global market of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) experienced a bearish trend, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. In Australia, LNG prices reported at USD 9.58/MMBTU represented a significant decrease of 21% compared to the previous quarter. This drop was largely driven by abundant supply in the global market and weakened demand in key sectors, such as energy and power generation, as countries shifted towards renewable energy sources. Additionally, milder weather conditions across Asia reduced the demand for heating, contributing to the overall decline in prices.

In Q2 2024, LNG prices in Australia continued their decline trend, falling to USD 8.56/MMBTU, reflecting an 11% decrease from Q1. This decline was largely due to decreased demand from industrial sectors, particularly in China, where energy consumption fell as the manufacturing sector faced a slowdown. Furthermore, ongoing supply chain improvements and the resolution of earlier logistical issues helped stabilize supply, easing price pressure. The improvement in global shipping routes and reduced traffic at major ports made it easier to transport LNG, which helped lower transportation costs.

By early Q3 2024, the LNG market shifted towards a bullish trend, with prices in Australia rising to USD 11.37/MMBTU in August, a 6% increase from the previous month. This upward movement was fueled by a combination of factors, including heightened demand for cooling in the summer season, particularly in Southeast Asia. Additionally, supply disruptions in Europe due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy market shifts caused a ripple effect, pushing global LNG prices higher. In North America, the hurricane season led to temporary supply constraints, further driving up prices.

As we move into Q4 2024, the LNG market is expected to remain volatile. The upcoming winter season is likely to increase demand for heating, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia, putting upward pressure on prices. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and potential disruptions in key LNG-producing regions such as Qatar and the USA could tighten global supply. However, the expansion of renewable energy capacity and the gradual recovery of the industrial sector may help balance the market, preventing extreme price spikes in the final quarter of 2024.

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is your trusted resource for tracking global liquified natural gas price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the liquified natural gas market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With , you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence liquified natural gas prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with ’s reliable, accurate, and timely liquified natural gas market data.

Track 's liquified natural gas price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in liquified natural gas prices

Hurricane Ida and Texas winter storm (2021): Both the Texas winter storm and Hurricane Ida caused significant disruptions in LNG production and export facilities, leading to production outages and temporary supply shortages, which resulted in spikes in LNG prices due to constrained supply.

COVID-19 Pandemic :(2021-2022): A combination of post-pandemic recovery, supply shortages, and high demand, particularly in Europe and Asia, resulted in an unprecedented spike in LNG prices. This crisis highlighted the fragility of the global supply chain.

U.S.-China Trade War (2018-2019): Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China affected LNG trade flows, with China imposing tariffs on U.S. LNG imports. This disrupted supply chains and contributed to market instability during the period.

Hurricane Harvey (2017): Severe flooding in Texas from Hurricane Harvey temporarily halted LNG production and exports, causing a supply shortage and a temporary spike in global prices.

Global LNG Supply Expansion (2016-2018): The ramp-up of LNG production in Australia and Qatar’s announcement to increase its production capacity by 30% significantly boosted global LNG supply during this period. This expansion challenged traditional suppliers and led to downward pressure on prices as the market adjusted to the increased availability of LNG.

These events highlight the sensitivity of the LNG market to geopolitical tensions, weather disruptions, and shifts in supply-demand dynamics, underscoring the importance of monitoring global trends.

Methodology and Specifications

liquified natural gas Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data:
PriceWatch gathers real-time pricing data from a wide range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures our assessments reflect the latest market conditions for Liquified Natural Gas.

On-the-Ground Intelligence:
Our team collects insights directly from key market players, including LNG producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users across major production hubs. This local intelligence is vital to understanding the unique dynamics of specific LNG markets.

Supply Chain Monitoring:
We monitor the entire Liquified Natural Gas supply chain, from extraction and liquefaction to transportation and distribution. This includes tracking natural gas prices, shipping routes, storage capacities, and terminal operations to provide a full picture of supply dynamics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions:
PriceWatch keeps a close eye on global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts, sanctions, and trade disputes, which can significantly impact LNG prices. For instance, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its disruption to European gas markets have led to price volatility worldwide.

Natural Disasters and Climate Events:
We assess the impact of weather-related events, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and extreme cold spells, on LNG production and export facilities. Events like hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf Coast or freezing conditions in key exporting nations can lead to short-term supply disruptions.

Economic Shifts:
PriceWatch analyses macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation, and sector-specific demand (e.g., power generation, industrial use). These factors are crucial in predicting LNG demand and resulting price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring:
We maintain a detailed global database of LNG production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance activities, and output levels. This helps us assess the current supply of Liquified Natural Gas at any given time.

Future Capacity Projections:
Our research includes forecasts of future LNG production capacity, considering new liquefaction plants, expansions, and advancements in technology. This aids in predicting future supply trends and potential impacts on price stability.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis:
PriceWatch offers a deep dive into demand trends across key sectors, such as power generation, industrial applications, and residential heating. We monitor year-on-year demand growth and predict future consumption patterns based on market indicators.

Global Demand Dynamics:
Our analysis looks at regional variations in demand and how they influence global LNG prices. This includes evaluating shifts in energy policies, changes in environmental regulations, and regional supply and demand imbalances.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models:
PriceWatch uses advanced econometric models to forecast Liquified Natural Gas prices, integrating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are constantly updated to improve accuracy and reliability.

Scenario Analysis:
We run scenario-based analyses to examine possible future market conditions. This includes evaluating best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping clients prepare for various market developments.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports:
Clients receive detailed reports featuring current LNG price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to provide actionable insights and clear recommendations.

Ongoing Support:
PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized client support, ensuring you always have the latest information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available for discussions on specific market trends and to offer tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers accurate, timely, and actionable Liquified Natural Gas pricing assessments, helping clients stay ahead of market trends and make well-informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

16.04 g/mol

CAS No

8006-14-2

HS Code

271111

Molecular Formula

CH4

liquified natural gas

Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is a colourless, non-toxic liquid formed by cooling natural gas to extremely low temperatures, making it more compact and easier to transport. It is primarily composed of methane and is sourced from natural gas fields. Liquified Natural Gas is widely used as an energy source for heating, electricity generation, and fuel for transportation due to its efficiency and lower environmental impact compared to other fossil fuels. Its ability to be transported over long distances by specialized tankers makes it a crucial component in global energy trade.

Packaging Type

Tanker (Export-Import, Domestic)

Grades Covered

Methane Content: >= 90%

Incoterms Used

FOB Port Darwin, FOB Ras Laffan, Ex-Louisiana, Ex- Hazira

Synonym

LNG, Liquid Methane, Natural Gas

Quotation Terms:

300-500 MMBTU

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Component	Ras Laffan (%)	Standard (%)	Mole Fraction (µmol/mol)	Standard Uncertainty (µmol/mol) (k=1)
Methane (CH₄)	90.28	89.63	876335.7255	9.1238
Ethane (C₂H₆)	6.33	6.32	99659.6382	7.9624
Propane (n-C₃H₈)	2.49	2.16	20544.1381	2.307
Butane (n-C₄H₁₀)	0.49	1.2	1659.7897	0.9147
Isobutane (i-C₄H₁₀)	0	0	0.6035	0.0302
Pentane (n-C₅H₁₂)	0.02	0	190.8249	0.037
Iso-Pentane (i-C₅H₁₂)	0	0	186.81	0.0368
Nitrogen (N₂)	0.41	0.69	1206.6016	0.849
H₂	–	–	21.2093	2.0582
H₂O	–	–	2.3334	1.1067
Propene	–	–	2.0573	1.187
CO₂	–	–	186.0012	0.1321
Ar	–	–	0.2929	0.1183
O₂	–	–	0.2272	0.0779
CₓHᵧ	–	–	0.1726	0.299
CO	–	–	0.0288	0.0083

Applications

Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is primarily used as a cleaner energy source for various applications. It is widely used in power generation to produce electricity more efficiently. Liquified Natural Gas also serves as a fuel for heating in homes and industries. In transportation, it is used as a fuel for ships and heavy vehicles, reducing emissions compared to traditional fuels. Additionally, Liquified Natural Gas is important in industrial processes, such as in manufacturing and refining, where it provides a reliable and low-emission energy source. Liquified Natural Gas is also essential for exporting natural gas, enabling transport over long distances via specialized tankers.

Disclaimer

Liquified Natural Gas price provided by is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for liquified natural gas. disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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Frequently asked questions

What Factors Influence Liquified Natural Gas Prices in the Global Market? +

The price of Liquified Natural Gas is influenced by several factors, including supply and demand dynamics, production costs, and transportation expenses. Additionally, geopolitical events, weather conditions, and global economic trends can significantly impact pricing. Fluctuations in the price of crude oil and natural gas also play a crucial role, as they affect LNG production and competition with alternative fuels.

How Do Changes in Global Supply and Demand Affect Liquified Natural Gas Pricing Trends? +

Changes in global supply and demand directly impact Liquified Natural Gas pricing. When demand increases due to factors such as economic growth or seasonal heating needs, prices tend to rise. Conversely, oversupply from increased production capacity or reduced demand can lead to price declines. Procurement heads should closely monitor market trends and adjust sourcing strategies to navigate these fluctuations effectively.

What Are the Key Regional Differences in Liquified Natural Gas Pricing, and How Do They Affect Procurement Strategies? +

Liquified Natural Gas pricing can vary significantly by region due to differences in local demand, transportation costs, and supply chain logistics. For instance, regions with abundant natural gas resources may have lower prices compared to those that rely on imports. Procurement teams should consider these regional price variations when developing sourcing strategies, looking for opportunities in cost-competitive markets and optimizing logistics to reduce overall expenses.