Subscribe Now
Book a Demo

Lithium Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 12352206
|
âźł Weekly Update
|
Historical Data Since 2015
|
Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing

lithium Price Trends by Country

cnChina

Global lithium Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

Price-Watch’s most active coverage of Lithium price assessment:

  • Purity: 99.9%min. Ex Shanghai, China

Lithium Price Trend Q3 2025

In Q3 2025, the worldwide Lithium Metal market experienced a slight contraction, with overall prices declining approximately 0.24% quarter-quarter. The slight pullback in pricing has primarily been attributed to weaker battery and electronics sector demand along with stabilizing raw material costs. In China, the leading producer and consumer, there have been rising inventory levels and slower downstream procurement from lithium-ion battery producers, which put some modest pressure on prices.

Although the long-term fundamentals remained firm due to ongoing electric vehicle and energy storage application growth, sentiment in the near term remained cautious. Overall, the market remained relatively stable, with minimal volatility, which reflected a brief corrective market phase following prior price surges in prior quarters.

China

Lithium Metal Export prices Ex Sanghai, China, Purity: 99.9%min.

According to Price-Watch, in Q3 2025, the lithium metal price trend in China declined by 0.24% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a slight softening in market sentiment. The marginal decline was primarily driven by moderated demand from the battery manufacturing and EV sectors, coupled with stable supply from domestic producers and import sources.

Despite steady raw material and energy costs, cautious procurement by downstream manufacturers and mild inventory accumulation contributed to the downward pressure. Overall, the market remained largely balanced, with a slightly bearish tone prevailing throughout the quarter.

Lithium metal prices in China inclined by 3.35% in September 2025, primarily driven by improved demand from the battery, electric vehicle, and electronics sectors amid robust downstream activity in the later stages of Q3. Tight supply from domestic smelters and constrained raw material availability further supported the upward price movement.

Lithium Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

According to the PriceWatch, In Q2 2025, lithium prices dropped sharply by $83,284 per metric ton, Ex Shanghai a 6.79% decrease due largely to continued oversupply, particularly from Chinese producers facing high inventories and low demand absorption.

Despite ongoing growth in electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, global demand has not kept pace with increased production, pushing spot prices to around $14,200 per ton below the average production cost of $15,500.

This imbalance has strained the profitability of major suppliers like Tianqi and Ganfeng, many of whom are operating at a loss. While policy support and modest demand recovery in July offer some hope for price stabilization, the lithium market remains under pressure heading into the second half of 2025. 

In Q1 2025, the lithium market experienced a notable downturn, with prices decreasing by $89,348 per metric ton, Ex Shanghai representing a 6.44% drop. This decline reflects a continuation of the cooling trend seen in late 2024, driven by a combination of oversupply concerns and softer than expected demand from the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors. Production ramp ups in key regions like Australia and Latin America have outpaced short term demand growth, contributing to downward pressure on prices.

Additionally, ongoing economic uncertainties and cautious inventory management by battery manufacturers have tempered purchasing activity. Despite this drop, long term fundamentals for lithium remain strong, underpinned by the global push toward decarbonization and clean energy technologies. 

Lithium Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

In Q4 2024, the lithium market experienced a notable price decrease of $95,495 per metric ton, Ex-Shanghai representing a decline of approximately 10.74%. This significant drop reflects ongoing market adjustments driven by a combination of oversupply concerns, weaker-than-expected demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector, and increased production capacity in major lithium-producing countries such as Australia and Chile.

The decline also suggests a temporary correction following previous price surges, as inventories remained high and buyers became more cautious. Market participants are closely watching for signs of stabilization, with attention turning to downstream demand recovery and potential supply constraints in 2025. 

In Q3 2024, the lithium market experienced a notable downturn, with prices declining by $106,980 per metric ton, Ex-Shanghai marking a sharp 12.62% decrease. This significant drop reflects ongoing oversupply concerns and weakened demand, particularly from the electric vehicle (EV) sector, which faced slower-than-expected growth and inventory adjustments. Additionally, increased production from key suppliers such as Australia and Latin America added downward pressure on prices.

Market sentiment was also dampened by economic uncertainty and tightening monetary policies, which reduced investment appetite. The lithium industry’s outlook remains cautious, with stakeholders closely monitoring demand recovery and supply chain dynamics. 

 

In Q2 2024, according to PriceWatch the lithium market experienced a notable rebound, with prices surging by $122,433 per metric ton, Ex-Shanghai marking a 7.77% increase. This uptick suggests renewed demand momentum, likely driven by expanding electric vehicle (EV) production, restocking by battery manufacturers, and improved investor sentiment. The increase may also reflect tighter supply dynamics due to weather-related disruptions in key producing regions or delays in new project ramp-ups.

Overall, the price surge indicates a tightening market environment, reinforcing lithium’s critical role in the clean energy transition and suggesting potential volatility ahead if supply fails to keep pace with accelerating demand. 

In the first quarter of 2024, the lithium market experienced a significant price decline, with prices dropping by $113,601 per metric ton, Ex-Shanghai representing a steep decrease of 27.51%. This sharp downturn reflects a combination of factors including oversupply concerns, weakening demand from key end-use sectors like electric vehicles and battery manufacturing, and broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

The substantial price correction signals a cooling phase after previous high valuations, potentially prompting producers to reassess production strategies and investors to recalibrate expectations. Moving forward, market participants will closely monitor supply adjustments and demand recovery to gauge the lithium market’s trajectory for the remainder of the year. 

 

Technical Specifications of Lithium Price Trends

Product Description

Lithium is a soft, silvery white alkali metal (Li) renowned for its exceptional electrochemical properties, making it a cornerstone element in modern energy storage solutions. As the lightest metal, lithium is primarily used in the production of lithium-ion batteries, which power a wide range of devices from smartphones and laptops to electric vehicles (EVs) and grid scale energy storage systems. Beyond batteries, lithium compounds such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are critical in the manufacturing of ceramics, glass, lubricating greases, and pharmaceuticals for mood stabilization.

Lithium’s high energy density, low atomic mass, and reactive nature also make it vital in nuclear technology and emerging hydrogen fuel applications. With growing demand in renewable energy and electrification sectors, lithium plays an essential role in the transition to a low carbon, sustainable future.

Identifiers and Classification:

  • CAS No – 7439-93-2
  • HS Code – 850650


Lithium Metal Grades Specific Price Assessment:

  • Lithium Metal Purity: 99.9%min. Price Trend


Lithium Metal Global Trade and Shipment Terms

Quotation Terms (Product & Country Specific): 500-1000 Kg

Packaging Type (Product & Country Specific): 50kg Steel drum


Incoterms Referenced in Lithium Metal Price Reporting

Shipping Term  Location  Definition 
Ex Sanghai  Shanghai, China  Domestically Traded Benzene price in China 

*Quotation Terms refers to the quantity range specified for the Lithium Metal being quoted or offered in a commercial transaction.

**Packaging Type refers to standard packaging size commonly used for Lithium Metal packing, ease of handling, transportation, and storage in industrial and commercial applications.

Key Lithium Metal Manufacturers

Manufacturer 
Ganfeng Lithium 
Tianqi Lithium Corporation 
China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. 

Lithium Industrial Applications

Lithium market share end use

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Lithium prices

  • Market Correction & Policy Signals (2023–2024): As inventories grew and demand projections were moderated, lithium prices experienced a sharp correction. Additionally, government interventions, such as China’s support for domestic lithium production and efforts in the U.S. and EU to diversify supply chains, helped alleviate some supply concerns, putting downward pressure on prices. 
  • Speculation & Inventory Buildup (2022–2023): Fears of continued shortages and geopolitical tensions (including China’s control over key parts of the lithium supply chain) led to speculative stockpiling by battery makers and EV manufacturers. This drove spot market prices up further. However, by mid-to-late 2023, signs of oversupply began emerging due to accelerated production ramp-up, especially in Australia and Latin America. 
  • Supply Lag & Project Delays (2021–2022): Although demand surged, lithium supply lagged due to underinvestment during prior low-price years and delays in bringing new projects online in regions like South America and Australia. This mismatch between supply and demand tightened markets, pushing prices to record highs by late 2021 and into 2022. 
  • EV Boom & Renewable Energy Transition (2020–2021): The post-COVID global push for green energy accelerated the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems, both heavily reliant on lithium-ion batteries. This surge in demand led to a rapid increase in lithium consumption, contributing to a sharp price rebound after a slump in 2018–2019. 

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global lithium price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the lithium market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence lithium prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely lithium market data.

Track PriceWatch's lithium price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: We gather information from global exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary sources to provide timely and accurate assessments. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: We incorporate insights from producers, suppliers, and end-users across key production regions to offer a comprehensive view of market dynamics. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the availability and cost of raw materials to evaluate supply conditions and price pressures. 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: We monitor political and economic events that impact supply chains and the flow of Lithium production. 
  • Market Demand Shifts: Our analysis considers global shifts in industrial and consumer demand, particularly in sectors like automotive, electronics, and renewable energy. 

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We assess operational Lithium production facilities and their output levels. 
  • Future Capacity Projections: We forecast future production capabilities, factoring in technological advancements and production expansions. 

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: We evaluate demand from major sectors such as automotive catalysts, renewable energy, and electronics. 
  • Regional Demand Dynamics: We assess demand from key markets and regions, especially China and their impact on global pricing. 

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: Our pricing models incorporate real-time data, historical trends, and market projections. 
  • Scenario Analysis: We perform scenario-based forecasting, assessing potential market conditions under various economic, geopolitical, and technological developments.

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: We provide actionable insights, forecasting, and detailed analysis of current and future price trends. 
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch delivers continuous updates and expert advice tailored to your business needs. 

Lithium Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for lithium. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Raw Material Availability: Lithium is primarily extracted from hard rock deposits (like spodumene) and lithium-rich brine resources. Variations in ore grade, extraction difficulty, water availability (especially for brine operations), and depletion rates can significantly impact supply and pricing.

Supply and Demand Dynamics: Lithium demand is mainly driven by the electric vehicle (EV) battery industry, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics. Rapid growth in EV adoption, government incentives for clean energy, and advancements in battery technology create strong demand surges, which push prices upward. Conversely, market slowdowns or oversupply can depress prices.

Production and Processing Costs: Extracting and refining lithium into battery-grade materials involves complex and costly processes, including chemical conversion and purification. Costs of energy, labor, water, and chemicals, as well as scale efficiencies at production facilities, heavily influence lithium prices.

Environmental and Regulatory Factors: Lithium mining and extraction (especially from brine) often require significant water usage and can cause ecological concerns. Stricter environmental regulations on water use, waste disposal, and land reclamation can increase operational costs and constrain supply, thereby influencing prices.

Global Trade Policies and Tariffs: Lithium-producing countries like Australia, Chile, Argentina, and China dominate the market. Export controls, tariffs, or trade disputes involving these key producers or major consumers (such as China and the U.S.) can disrupt supply chains and cause price volatility.

Geopolitical Risks and Regional Stability: Lithium production regions are often politically sensitive or subject to social conflicts. Instability, policy changes, or nationalization efforts can disrupt mining operations or exports, impacting global lithium supply and pricing.

Technological Advancements: Innovations in lithium extraction methods (e.g., direct lithium extraction from brine), battery chemistry improvements reducing lithium intensity, and recycling technologies can alter demand and supply balance, affecting prices over time.

Exchange Rates: Lithium is traded globally, so fluctuations in currencies such as the Australian Dollar, Chilean Peso, Chinese Yuan, and U.S. Dollar affect export competitiveness and international pricing.

Market Competition and Substitutes: Competition between lithium producers, the emergence of alternative battery chemistries (like sodium-ion or solid-state batteries), and recycling initiatives can impact lithium demand and pricing strategies.

The availability and cost of raw materials such as high-carbon steel and alloy coatings directly affect Lithium production costs and pricing.

Lithium prices generally increase alongside inflation, driven by rising costs of mining, processing, and logistics. Additionally, strong and growing demand from electric vehicle manufacturers, battery producers, and renewable energy sectors helps maintain price stability and upward pressure even during broader economic shifts.

PriceWatch offers a range of tools and services to track commodity prices effectively:

Real-Time Data: Access to market intelligence and data on global Lithium supply chains.

Expert Analysis: Insights into market trends and potential risks.

Risk Assessment: Tools to evaluate supply chain vulnerabilities.

Benchmarking: Compare Lithium prices and sourcing practices.

Supplier Intelligence: Information on supplier reliability and financial health.

Access Real-Time Lithium Price Trends