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Merchant Bar Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 30103623
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âźł Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing

merchant bar Price Trends by Country

cnChina
inIndia
itItaly
usUnited States
trTurkey

Global merchant bar Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

Price-Watch’s most active coverage of Merchant Bar price assessment:

  • 50*20mm Ex Alabama, USA
  • 50*20mm FD Taranto, Italy
  • Q235-50*20mm FOB Shanghai, China
  • 50*20mm EX Iskenderun, Turkey
  • E250 BR-50*5mm Ex Raipur, India

Merchant Bar Price Trend Q3 2025

In Q3 2025, the global merchant bar market (primarily referring to merchant bar quality steel) experienced a negative price trend, driven by weak demand from the construction sector, elevated inventory levels, and a broader downturn in steel and base metal markets. Prices declined across key regions, notably with China reporting a 2.4% quarter on quarter drop, while input cost volatility and global oversupply further pressured margins. Despite some regional variations, the overall outlook remained bearish, with producers resorting to price cuts amid sluggish downstream activity and limited stimulus driven demand.

China

Merchant Bar Export prices FOB Shanghai, China, Grade- Q235 – 50*20mm.

In Q3 2025, the price trend for China’s Merchant Bar market experienced a 1.7% decline compared to Q2, reflecting continued weakness in downstream demand, high inventory levels, and ongoing pricing pressure. The merchant bar price trend showed a mild downward movement as sellers responded to slow construction activity and tighter procurement strategies. With domestic consumption subdued and limited support from export markets, producers faced margin compression, prompting more competitive pricing.

Despite the decline being less steep than the previous quarter, the market remains cautious, with further softening possible if demand fails to recover in Q4. The 2.42% decrease in Merchant Bar prices in China during September 2025 can be attributed to sluggish demand from the construction and manufacturing sectors amid a broader economic slowdown. Additionally, increased domestic production and inventory levels may have exerted downward pressure on prices.

India

According to the PriceWatch, in Q3 2025, the price trend of Indian Merchant Bar market witnessed a 3.45% decline compared to Q2, driven by softening demand from the construction and fabrication sectors, delayed infrastructure projects, and rising input costs. The merchant bar price trend remained under pressure, with limited upward movement as producers faced margin squeezes and resorted to selective discounting to maintain volumes.

Competitive imports and high logistics costs further strained the market, while subdued downstream activity limited buying interest. Looking ahead, price recovery may remain constrained unless there’s a notable rebound in infrastructure spending or raw material cost relief.

The 0.26% increase in Merchant Bar prices in India during September 2025 can be attributed to rising input costs, particularly steel billets, and a slight recovery in construction demand post monsoon. Additionally, supply constraints from key producers contributed to the upward price adjustment.

USA

Accoridng to the PriceWatch, in Q3 2025, the price trend of U.S. merchant bar market experienced a slight 0.91% decrease in prices compared to Q2 2025, reflecting a modest downward price trend after earlier increases earlier in the year. This adjustment suggests a stabilization in supply and demand dynamics, with domestic mills cautiously managing price levels that remain below 2024 highs.

Strong export activity, particularly to Mexico and Canada, helped support market stability despite the slight price dip. Overall, the merchant bar price trend indicates a balanced market outlook with steady demand and supply conditions.

The 0.49% decrease in Merchant Bar prices in the USA during September 2025 likely reflects a combination of improved supply chain efficiencies and a slight dip in consumer demand. This modest price adjustment helps maintain competitive market positioning while responding to changing economic conditions.

Italy

In Q3 2025, price trend of Italy’s merchant bar market saw a 2.01% decrease compared to Q2, reflecting a slight downward price trend influenced by easing industrial inflation and a 0.6% drop in energy costs. Despite this overall decline, the retail sector showed strong growth, with investments up 38% year over year, supporting steady demand for merchant bars in construction and infrastructure.

Looking forward, prices are expected to stabilize, with market dynamics closely tied to energy prices and domestic investment activity. The 0.31% decrease in Merchant Bar prices in Italy during September 2025 likely reflects a combination of lower demand and increased competition within the sector. Additionally, this slight price reduction may be a strategic response to inflationary pressures or changes in consumer spending habits.

Turkey

In Q3 2025, the price trend of Turkey’s merchant bar market saw a 2.63% price decrease from Q2, driven by weakening import scrap prices and regional market adjustments. Despite some areas experiencing price hikes earlier in the year, overall price trends shifted downward amid ongoing inflationary pressures and the Turkish lira’s depreciation against the US dollar.

These economic factors influenced producers to revise pricing strategies, reflecting a cautious market outlook. Going forward, stakeholders should closely monitor currency fluctuations and inflation, as these will continue to shape the merchant bar price trend in Turkey.

The 0.86% decrease in Merchant Bar prices in Turkey in September 2025 likely reflects reduced production costs or increased competition among suppliers. Additionally, this price drop could be influenced by fluctuations in raw material prices or shifts in consumer demand within the market.

Merchant Bar Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

According to the PriceWatch, In Q2 2025, Merchant Bar China experienced a notable price decrease of $515.78 per metric ton, FOB Shanghai representing a 2.41% decline compared to the previous quarter. This price adjustment reflects a modest softening in the market, potentially driven by shifts in supply demand dynamics or cost factors affecting the steel or metal bar industry in China.

While the percentage decrease is relatively moderate, the substantial per ton price drop could impact revenue margins for producers and merchants, signalling cautious market sentiment or increased competition. Stakeholders should monitor whether this trend continues or stabilizes, as it may influence procurement strategies and pricing forecasts moving forward. 

According to the PriceWatch, In Q2 2025, Merchant Bar India experienced a notable price increase of $580.85 per metric ton, Ex Raipur reflecting a 1.48% rise compared to the previous quarter. This moderate price adjustment indicates a stable but upward pricing trend, likely driven by factors such as increased raw material costs, inflationary pressures, or shifts in demand supply dynamics within the steel or metal trading market.

The incremental rise suggests that the company is cautiously passing on cost increases to customers, balancing profitability while maintaining competitive positioning in the market. Overall, the price movement in Q2 signals a controlled response to market conditions, potentially supporting sustained revenue growth without significant disruption to customer demand. 

In the first quarter of 2025, the Merchant Bar market experienced a notable price decrease of $529 per metric ton, FOB Shanghai reflecting a 1.14% decline. This downward shift suggests softening demand or increased supply pressures within the sector, potentially influenced by broader economic headwinds, reduced construction activity, or easing raw material costs such as scrap steel.

The relatively modest percentage drop, despite the substantial nominal decrease, indicates that prices were initially high, which may have cushioned the overall market impact. Stakeholders may interpret this as a short-term correction rather than a long-term trend, warranting close monitoring of global steel market dynamics and regional industrial activity in the coming quarters. 

In Q1, India’s merchant bar market saw a modest price increase of $572 per metric ton, Ex Raipur marking a 0.33% rise, largely driven by reduced inventories. Despite this uptick, the broader market faced headwinds as India shifted from being a net steel exporter to a net importer, with steel imports rising 30% year over year to 1.9 million tones and exports dropping 38% to 1.3 million tones, driven by subdued global demand and increased competition, particularly from China.

Additionally, a surge in finished flat steel imports to a nine year high of 10.1 million tones further pressured domestic pricing. While the price increase reflects short-term resilience, the growing trade deficit and elevated import levels pose risks to market stability in the coming quarters. 

Merchant Bar Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

In Q4 2024, the Merchant Bar market experienced a notable price increase, with prices rising by $535 per metric ton, FOB Shanghai reflecting a 3.27% growth over the previous quarter. This uptick suggests strengthening demand or supply-side constraints, possibly driven by increased infrastructure spending, seasonal construction activity, or global supply chain disruptions.

The moderate percentage gain, despite the substantial absolute rise, indicates that baseline prices were already elevated, likely due to ongoing cost pressures in raw materials and energy. Market participants may need to reassess procurement strategies and pricing models heading into 2025, as volatility remains a key risk factor. 

In Q4 2024, the Indian merchant bar market experienced a price reduction of $570 per metric ton, Ex Raipur equating to a 1.42% decline. This decrease aligns with MEPS International’s forecast, which projected a drop from $549 per ton in October 2024 to $526 per ton in November 2024.

Such a price adjustment may reflect a combination of factors, including fluctuations in raw material costs, changes in demand dynamics, and broader economic conditions impacting the steel industry. For stakeholders in the sector, this price trend suggests potential opportunities for cost optimization and strategic procurement planning. 

In Q3 2024, the Merchant Bar market experienced a notable price decline, with prices dropping by $518 per metric ton, FOB Shanghai representing a decrease of 8.98%. This significant reduction suggests a shift in market dynamics, likely driven by factors such as reduced demand in construction and manufacturing sectors, lower raw material costs (notably scrap metal), or increased supply due to ramped-up production or imports.

The decline may also reflect broader macroeconomic conditions, including tightened credit markets or infrastructure spending slowdowns. Such a sharp quarterly drop highlights increased volatility in the steel market and may prompt buyers to reassess procurement strategies moving into Q4. 

In Q3 2024, India’s merchant bar market experienced a notable price decline of $578 per metric ton, Ex Raipur equating to a 7.23% decrease. This downturn was primarily driven by a combination of factors including reduced domestic demand, global oversupply, and fluctuations in raw material costs.

For instance, rebar prices in India saw a decline from $760 per metric ton in April to $742 by August 2024, reflecting broader market trends. Additionally, the global steel market faced continued pressure from oversupply and uneven demand growth, alongside declining raw material prices, contributing to subdued steel prices in the coming quarters.

This price reduction poses challenges for domestic producers, potentially impacting their profitability and competitiveness. However, industry stakeholders remain cautiously optimistic, anticipating a market recovery in the long term as demand stabilizes and supply demand dynamic rebalance. 

In Q2 2024, the merchant bar market experienced a notable downturn, with prices declining by $569 per metric ton, FOB Shanghai marking a 5.16% decrease compared to the previous quarter. This price drop reflects softening demand across key sectors such as construction and manufacturing, potentially driven by slower infrastructure activity or tightened project budgets.

Additionally, increased supply or lower input costs such as for scrap metal or energy may have contributed to the downward pressure. This shift could signal a broader cooling in steel product markets, requiring producers and distributors to reassess their pricing strategies and inventory levels moving forward. 

In Q2 FY2024, the Indian merchant bar market experienced a notable price increase of $623 per metric ton, Ex Raipur equating to a 2.05% rise. This uptick was primarily driven by escalating raw material costs, including iron ore and coking coal, which elevated production expenses for steel manufacturers. Additionally, a surge in domestic demand, particularly from infrastructure and construction sectors, further supported the price hike.

However, the market faced challenges from increased steel imports, which exerted downward pressure on domestic prices. Despite these external factors, the overall market sentiment remained positive, with expectations of continued demand growth in the upcoming quarters. 

In the first quarter of 2024, the merchant bar market experienced a notable price increase of $600 per metric ton, FOB Shanghai reflecting a 2.97% rise compared to the previous period. This uptick suggests strengthening demand, potentially driven by increased activity in construction and infrastructure projects, as well as tighter supply conditions.

The moderate percentage growth, despite the substantial absolute increase in price, indicates that the market may have already been operating at a relatively high price level prior to this adjustment. Overall, the Q1 2024 trend signals a resilient merchant bar market with firming fundamentals and possible inflationary pressures across the steel sector. 

 

In Q1 2024, India’s merchant bar market witnessed a notable price decline of $611 per metric ton, Ex Raipur marking a 5.40% drop. This decrease was driven primarily by a surge in low cost steel imports from countries like China and Vietnam, which led India to become a net steel importer during the period. The influx of cheaper foreign material pressured domestic prices amid sluggish local demand and rising inventory levels.

These market conditions pushed steel prices, including those of merchant bars, to their lowest levels over three years. While expectations of a demand recovery later in the year fueled by government infrastructure spending and festive season activity offer some optimism, the market remains challenged by global competition and domestic oversupply. 

Technical Specifications of Merchant Bar Price Trends

Product Description

Merchant bar is a category of long steel products commonly used in various construction and industrial applications. These bars are typically produced through hot rolling processes and are available in a range of shapes, including rounds, squares, and flats. Merchant bars are known for their excellent strength and versatility, making them ideal for structural frameworks, machinery, and general fabrication purposes. They are often used in the construction of buildings, bridges, and other infrastructure projects, as well as in the manufacturing of automotive parts and tools. Due to their ability to be easily processed into different forms, merchant bars contribute to the production of high strength, durable, and reliable products that are essential for industries such as construction, engineering, and manufacturing. Their consistency in shape and quality ensures their importance in a wide variety of applications, supporting robust and sustainable development.

Identifiers and Classification:

  • HS Code – 721610


Merchant Bar Grades Specific Price Assessment:

  • 50*20mm
  • Q235-50*20mm
  • E250 BR-50*5mm


Merchant Bar Global Trade and Shipment Terms

  • Quotation Terms: 35-40 MT
  • Packaging Type: Container


Incoterms Referenced in Merchant Bar Price Reporting

Shipping Term  Location  Definition 
FOB Shanghai   China  Merchant Bar Export price from China 
EX Alabama  USA  Domestically Traded Merchant Bar price in USA 
FD Taranto   Italy  Domestically Traded Merchant Bar price in Italy 
EX Iskenderun  Turkey  Domestically Traded Merchant Bar price in Turkey 
EX-Raipur  Raipur, India  Domestically Traded Merchant Bar price in India 

*Quotation Terms refers to the quantity range specified for the Merchant Bar being quoted or offered in a commercial transaction.

**Packaging Type refers to standard packaging size commonly used for Merchant Bar packing, ease of handling, transportation, and storage in industrial and commercial applications.

Key Merchant Bar Manufacturers

Manufacturer 
ArcelorMittal 
China Baowu Steel Group 
Nippon Steel 
Nucor Corporation 
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) 
Tata Steel 
Shyam Metalics 
SAIL

Merchant Bar Industrial Applications

merchant bar market share end use

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Merchant Bar prices

  • Raw Material Costs & Supply Chain Challenges (2021–2022): Rising prices for key raw materials, such as scrap steel and iron ore, combined with ongoing global supply chain disruptions, led to increased production costs for merchant bars, resulting in higher market prices. 
  • COVID-19 Pandemic Disruptions (2020): The global pandemic led to factory shutdowns, supply chain interruptions, and reduced industrial activity, which caused production slowdowns and temporary price spikes followed by a decline in demand and market correction. 
  • Steel Tariffs & Trade Protectionism (2018–2019): Trade wars, especially between the US and China, led to steel tariffs and import restrictions, reducing supply of merchant bars in certain regions and driving price increases in the global market. 

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global merchant bar price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the merchant bar market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence merchant bar prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely merchant bar market data.

Track PriceWatch's merchant bar price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: We aggregate data from global exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases to provide accurate and timely assessments.
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Insights from producers, suppliers, and end-users in key production hubs are integrated to understand market dynamics.
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: Comprehensive tracking of raw materials and production channels to assess supply conditions.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: Continuous monitoring of geopolitical events affecting supply chains and pricing.
  • Economic Shifts: Analysis of macroeconomic factors and sector-specific demand to predict market movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: Detailed tracking of operational Merchant bar production facilities and their outputs.
  • Future Capacity Projections: Forecasting new capacity additions and technological innovations in Merchant bar production.

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: Evaluating Merchant bar demand in semiconductors, photovoltaics, and other applications.
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Regional demand variations and their impact on global pricing.

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: Advanced models incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and market projections.
  • Scenario Analysis: Assessing potential market conditions under various scenarios.

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Detailed analyses of current and future price trends, with actionable insights.
  • Ongoing Support: Continuous updates and expert advice tailored to client needs.

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Merchant bar pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions. 
 

Merchant Bar Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for merchant bar. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

The pricing of Merchant Bar is influenced by several factors, including:

i. Supply & Availability

• Primary Production:Merchant bar is primarily produced in rolling mills that process billets or blooms into various shapes. Availability depends on the capacity of integrated and mini steel mills, raw material input (mainly scrap or iron ore), and regional mill utilization rates.

• Global & Regional Production:Major producers include China, the EU, India, Turkey, and the U.S. Disruptions in key regions (due to maintenance shutdowns, supply chain issues, or environmental regulations) can reduce availability and increase prices locally or globally.

ii. Demand from Key Industries

• Construction Sector:Merchant bar is widely used in civil construction, infrastructure projects, and non-residential buildings. Demand correlates closely with government infrastructure spending, real estate development, and economic growth.

• Industrial & Fabrication Demand:Used in machinery, frames, support structures, and equipment fabrication, demand is sensitive to manufacturing output, especially in industries such as transportation, mining, and agriculture.

iii. Grade & Product Specification

• Steel Grade & Standards:The price varies based on chemical composition (e.g., mild steel vs. high-strength low-alloy steel), mechanical properties, and conformance to standards (e.g., ASTM, BS, EN).

• Dimensional Variability:Merchant bar is sold in various sizes and profiles (e.g., equal angle, unequal angle, channel). Larger sections or specialized profiles often carry a premium due to additional processing and lower production volumes.

iv. Geopolitical Factors

• Tariffs & Trade Policies:Anti-dumping duties, tariffs (e.g., Section 232 in the U.S.), and import restrictions can raise local prices or shift trade flows. For instance, restrictions on imports from Turkey or China can drive domestic price increases in receiving markets.

• Regulatory Environment:Carbon emissions regulations, green steel mandates, and environmental compliance costs can affect production costs and supply, especially in Europe and North America.

v. Market Speculation & Investment Trends

• Construction Boom or Slowdown:Speculative buying tied to anticipated infrastructure booms (e.g., post-pandemic stimulus plans) or policy announcements (e.g., green infrastructure investment) can lead to price spikes.

• Steel Market Volatility:Merchant bar pricing is influenced by overall long steel market sentiment. When rebar, wire rod, and structural steel prices surge or fall, merchant bar typically follows similar trends.

vi. Alternative Materials & Substitutes

• Substitution with Fabricated Sections:In some applications, merchant bar may be substituted with hollow sections, welded structures, or cast components, particularly if steel prices rise sharply.

• Material Choice in Design:Design shifts to aluminium or composites in certain sectors (e.g., light manufacturing or modular buildings) may marginally reduce merchant bar demand, though substitution is often limited by structural strength requirements.

vii. Processing & Refinement Costs

• Raw Material Inputs:The cost of steel billets (from which merchant bar is rolled) is directly influenced by global scrap prices, iron ore prices, and coking coal prices. Input fluctuations directly affect finished merchant bar prices.

• Energy & Operational Costs:Rolling mills consume significant electricity and gas. Rising energy costs, especially in Europe or energy-restricted markets like India and Pakistan, can increase production costs.

• Transportation & Logistics:Freight rates (land and sea), fuel costs, and logistical bottlenecks (e.g., port congestion or trucking shortages) can influence delivered prices, especially for export-driven or import-dependent markets.

viii. Currency Exchange Rates

• Global Trade in USD or Local Currency:Merchant bar is traded regionally and internationally, often in U.S. dollars. Currency fluctuations (e.g., Turkish lira, Indian rupee, or Brazilian real) impact export competitiveness and pricing.

• Hedging & Contract Structures:Long-term supply contracts may include price adjustments linked to currency fluctuations, impacting cost predictability for both buyers and sellers.

Rising feedstock prices increase the cost of producing merchant bar, leading to higher market prices and potential supply constraints.

Inflation can raise merchant bar prices by increasing the cost of raw materials (such as scrap or billet), labor, and energy, while also stimulating demand in construction and manufacturing sectors where merchant bars are widely used for structural applications, thereby driving prices upward through both cost-push and demand-pull factors.

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