naphtha Pricing Assessment

Name: Naphtha Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast
Creator: PriceWatch
Published: 2025-02-17T11:22:29+00:00
License: https://www.price-watch.ai/privacy-policy/

Markets Covered:

United States

United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Netherlands

Japan

Korea

Mexico

Brazil

Canada

Australia

Indonesia

Malaysia

Belgium

France

Germany

India

Naphtha Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In Q1 2024, the global Naphtha market observed a bearish trend, particularly in the UAE, where prices were reported at USD 611.65/MT, reflecting a decline of 0.59% from the previous quarter. The downturn in prices was influenced by factors such as lower demand in the petrochemical sector and reduced activity in refining processes. Additionally, fluctuations in crude oil prices and seasonal variations in demand contributed to this stabilization. Despite these challenges, the overall market was characterized by a cautious optimism as producers adjusted their strategies in response to changing economic conditions.

In Q2 2024, Naphtha prices in the UAE rose to USD 628.70/MT, indicating an upward trend of 2.79%. This increase was driven by a surge in demand for Naphtha in various applications, particularly in the production of plastics and chemicals. Enhanced production processes and technological advancements in refining also played a crucial role in meeting the rising demand. Furthermore, supply chain improvements and strategic stockpiling ahead of seasonal demand peaks contributed to this price rise. Globally, market fluctuations were influenced by factors such as geopolitical tensions and economic recovery in key consumer regions.

By early Q3 2024, Naphtha prices experienced another increase, reaching USD 677/MT in August, which is an uptick of 2.92% from Q2. This price rise was largely attributed to robust demand from the petrochemical industry, alongside increasing global consumption as economies continued to rebound. Supply constraints, including disruptions in production and logistics challenges, also put upward pressure on prices. Key markets like Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the Netherlands further fueled this trend, as their demand for Naphtha remained strong amid ongoing industrial activities.

Looking ahead to Q4 2024, the Naphtha market is expected to experience continued volatility due to several factors. Anticipated increases in demand from the packaging and automotive sectors, particularly during the festive season, may further strain supply chains and drive prices upward. Additionally, any geopolitical developments affecting oil supply or production capacity in major exporting countries could significantly impact market dynamics. As producers adapt to these changes, procurement strategies will need to be flexible to navigate the evolving landscape of the Naphtha market effectively.

Why ?

is your trusted resource for tracking global benzene price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the benzene market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With , you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence benzene prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with ’s reliable, accurate, and timely Lactic Acid market data.

Track ‘s benzene price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

is your trusted resource for tracking global naphtha price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the naphtha market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With , you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence naphtha prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with ’s reliable, accurate, and timely naphtha market data.

Track 's naphtha price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in naphtha prices

Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022-2024): Disruptions in energy supply chains across Europe led to spikes in Naphtha prices due to increased demand for alternative sources and limited supply availability.

COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): The pandemic initially caused a sharp decline in Naphtha demand due to lockdowns and decreased industrial activity. However, as economies reopened and demand for packaging materials surged, Naphtha prices rebounded quickly.

U.S.-China Trade Tensions (2018-2019): Trade disputes disrupted global supply chains, impacting the Naphtha market with pricing instability as tariffs and sanctions affected the availability and flow of petrochemical feedstocks.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Production Cuts (2016-2018): OPEC and allied countries implemented production cuts to stabilize global oil prices, which indirectly raised Naphtha costs due to higher crude oil prices and constrained supply.

Shale Oil and Gas Expansion (2015-2020): The U.S. shale boom increased Naphtha supply globally, lowering prices as North American exports expanded. This trend bolstered the market with abundant supply, but it also added volatility due to fluctuating production costs.

These events highlight Naphtha’s sensitivity to global disruptions, underscoring the need for close monitoring of market trends and geopolitical influences.

Methodology and Specifications

naphtha Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch gathers real-time pricing information from a wide range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This allows our Naphtha assessments to accurately reflect the latest market conditions.

On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from essential market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major Naphtha production hubs. This localized intelligence is vital for capturing specific market dynamics.

Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire Naphtha supply chain, from crude oil availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, refinery outputs, and logistics, providing a comprehensive view of the market’s operational health.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch closely monitors geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade sanctions, which may disrupt global Naphtha supply chains and impact pricing. Our analysis assesses both immediate and long-term implications for market stability.

Oil Price Volatility: As Naphtha is derived from crude oil, shifts in oil prices directly affect Naphtha costs. We factor in significant oil price changes driven by OPEC decisions, international demand shifts, and supply disruptions.

Economic Conditions: PriceWatch evaluates economic trends, including global GDP growth, inflation, and demand from sectors such as petrochemicals, to predict fluctuations in Naphtha demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Naphtha production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This enables accurate assessments of available supply.

Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes projections of upcoming Naphtha production capacities, incorporating new refinery constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in forecasting supply trends and potential price impacts.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors such as petrochemicals and transportation. We track year-over-year demand growth and forecast future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry advancements.

Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional variations in demand and their influence on global Naphtha pricing.

This includes shifts in manufacturing bases, trade regulations, and environmental policies impacting consumption.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch uses advanced econometric models to forecast Naphtha prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market factors. Our models are refined continuously to improve accuracy and predictive capabilities.

Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based analyses to evaluate potential market conditions. These scenarios include best-case, worst-case, and most-likely outcomes, helping clients prepare for a range of market possibilities.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that cover current price assessments, future forecasts, and deep analyses of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and strategic recommendations.

Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and dedicated support to clients, ensuring they have the most recent information for making informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market events and offer tailored guidance.

This methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers accurate, timely, and actionable Naphtha pricing assessments, empowering our clients to stay ahead of market trends and make well-informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

100–215 g/mol

CAS No

64742-94-5(Solvent Grade - Light),64742-47-8(Paraffin Grade)

HS Code

2707500 (Solvent Grade - Light) ,27101290 (Paraffin Grade)

Molecular Formula

naphtha

Naphtha is a versatile, liquid hydrocarbon product derived from crude oil and is widely used in the petrochemical industry. Known for its high flammability and ease of conversion, Naphtha is essential as a feedstock in producing ethylene, propylene, and other critical petrochemicals. These derivatives are the building blocks for a wide range of products, including plastics, synthetic Fibers, and resins. Additionally, Naphtha is used in the refining industry for gasoline blending, enhancing fuel performance. Its adaptability and role in producing essential materials make Naphtha a key component in various industrial applications.

Packaging Type

Drum

Grades Covered

Paraffin Grade, Solvent Grade (Light)

Incoterms Used

FOB Houston, FOB Jebel Ali, FOB Singapore, FOB Jeddah, FOB Rotterdam, FD Le Havre, FD Hamburg, FD Antwerp, CIF Tokyo (UAE), CIF Santos (USA), CIF Port Kelang (Singapore), CIF Nhava Sheva (Singapore, Saudi Arabia), CIF Montreal (USA), CIF Melbourne (Singapore), CIF Manzanillo (USA), CIF Jakarta (Singapore), CIF Busan (UAE).

Synonym

Petroleum Naphtha, Petroleum ether.

Quotation Terms:

25- 30 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property	Solvent Grade (Light)	Paraffin Grade
Boiling Point (°C)	40-80	40-80
Physical State	Liquid	Liquid
Appearance	Dark straw color to colorless liquid.	Saybolt
VAPOUR PRESSURE at 35 °C mm/Hg	758 – 896 h Pa at 20 °C (68 °F)	–
VAPOUR DENSITY (AIR= 1)	2.5	–
SOLUBILITY IN H2O at 30 °C	Negligible	–
SPECIFIC GRAVITY (H2O=1)	0.97	–
Density @ 15 deg. C, kg / m3, Max	–	700
Total Paraffins, % by Vol, Max	–	60-65
Sulphur Total, ppm w, Max	–	650
Olefins, % by Volume, Max	–	1
Aromatics, % by Volume	–	10 to 12
Naphthenes, % by Vol, Max	–	By Balance

Applications

Naphtha is primarily used as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry to produce key chemicals, including Ethylene, Propylene, and Butadiene. These chemicals are essential for manufacturing a wide range of products, such as plastics, synthetic Fibers, and resins. Additionally, Naphtha plays a crucial role in gasoline blending, improving fuel quality and performance. Its versatility and usefulness as an intermediate make Naphtha vital for multiple industrial applications.

Disclaimer

Naphtha price provided by is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for naphtha. disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Request a Price Watch Demo

Frequently asked questions

What Factors Influence Naphtha Prices in The Global Market? +

Naphtha prices are influenced by several key factors, including crude oil price fluctuations, demand from the petrochemical industry, and seasonal changes. Additionally, geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, and feedstock availability can impact Naphtha pricing. Monitoring these variables closely is essential for procurement teams aiming to anticipate price trends and optimize costs.

How Do Changes in Crude Oil Prices Affect Naphtha Pricing Trends? +

As Naphtha is a petroleum-based product, its pricing is heavily tied to crude oil costs. When crude oil prices rise due to production cuts or supply issues, Naphtha prices tend to increase. Conversely, a drop in crude oil prices can lead to more affordable Naphtha. Procurement heads should keep a close watch on crude oil market developments to manage Naphtha sourcing effectively.

Are There Regional Price Differences for Naphtha, And How Should Procurement Heads Approach This? +

Naphtha prices can vary by region due to factors like refining capacities, regional demand, and transportation costs. For instance, regions with significant petrochemical production may have more competitive Naphtha prices due to higher local demand. Procurement teams can leverage these differences by diversifying sourcing locations and exploring cost-effective options in markets with favorable pricing.