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Naphtha Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC: 15101503

naphtha Price Trends by Country

usUnited States
aeUnited Arab Emirates
saSaudi Arabia
sgSingapore
nlNetherlands
jpJapan
mxMexico
brBrazil
caCanada
auAustralia
idIndonesia
myMalaysia
beBelgium
frFrance
deGermany
inIndia
krSouth Korea

naphtha Pricing Trends in India: 

  • Northern India naphtha market price trend
  • Southern India naphtha market price trend
  • Central India naphtha market price trend

Global naphtha Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast​

In Q2 2025, according to the PriceWatch, Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) prices on an FOB basis at Jebel Ali averaged 549.92 USD per metric ton, registering a -12.25% drop from 626.67 USD per metric ton in Q1 2025. This downward shift was primarily due to weak buying sentiment across petrochemical industries, particularly in Asia, where demand for feedstocks like ethylene and propylene remained subdued.

High inventory levels carried over from previous months reduced spot market activity, as buyers preferred to draw down existing stocks. Additionally, stable crude oil prices and uninterrupted upstream operations ensured a consistent supply stream, easing supply-side pressure. The Naphtha price trend reflected a clear softening, and the overall Naphtha market leaned towards correction, with limited price volatility and a balanced trading environment shaped by cautious procurement strategies. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

In Q2 2025, according to the PriceWatch, Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) prices on an FOB basis at Jebel Ali averaged 549.92 USD per metric ton, registering a -12.25% drop from 626.67 USD per metric ton in Q1 2025. This downward shift was primarily due to weak buying sentiment across petrochemical industries, particularly in Asia, where demand for feedstocks like ethylene and propylene remained subdued.

High inventory levels carried over from previous months reduced spot market activity, as buyers preferred to draw down existing stocks. Additionally, stable crude oil prices and uninterrupted upstream operations ensured a consistent supply stream, easing supply-side pressure.

The Naphtha price trend reflected a clear softening, and the overall Naphtha market leaned towards correction, with limited price volatility and a balanced trading environment shaped by cautious procurement strategies. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2025

In Q1 2025, Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) prices in the FOB Jebel Ali continued to stabilize at 626.67 USD/MT, reflecting a 2.34% decrease from Q4 2024. The market experienced an abundant supply, as some international buyers delayed purchases, anticipating further price corrections. Nevertheless, steady export activities and the UAE’s strategic position as a key supplier helped maintain overall market stability, avoiding any significant disruptions in pricing. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

By Q4 2024, Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) prices in the FOB Jebel Ali slightly stabilized to $641.67 USD/MT, marking a 2.76% decrease from Q3. The decline was primarily attributed to reduced overseas demand, as several importing regions adjusted their procurement strategies and stock levels, leading to a temporary slowdown in exports.

Moreover, seasonal fluctuations in industrial activity influenced buying patterns, slightly dipping the market prices. Despite this, the UAE’s strong production capabilities and well-established supply chain ensured a balanced supply, preventing any sharp price drops. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q3 2024

In Q3 2024, the Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) market in the FOB Jebel Ali witnessed an upward trend, with prices reaching $659.88 USD/MT, reflecting a 4.96% increase from Q2. This rise was mainly driven by robust demand from key Asian and European markets, as countries looked to secure reliable Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) supplies amid global market uncertainties.

Additionally, strong refining activity and optimized production operations in the UAE contributed to stable output levels, further supporting price growth. The increased consumption of Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) in downstream petrochemical and refining industries also played a vital role in maintaining market momentum. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2024

In Q2 2024, Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) prices in the FOB Jebel Ali rose to USD 628.70/MT, indicating an upward trend of 2.79%. This increase was driven by a surge in demand for Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) in various applications, particularly in the production of plastics and chemicals. Enhanced production processes and technological advancements in refining also played a crucial role in meeting the rising demand.

Furthermore, supply chain improvements and strategic stockpiling ahead of seasonal demand peaks contributed to this price rise. Globally, market fluctuations were influenced by factors such as geopolitical tensions and economic recovery in key consumer regions. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2024

In Q1 2024, the global Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) market observed a bearish trend, particularly in the UAE, where FOB Jebel Ali prices were reported at USD 611.65/MT, reflecting a decline of 0.59% from the previous quarter. The downturn in prices was influenced by factors such as lower demand in the petrochemical sector and reduced activity in refining processes.

Additionally, fluctuations in crude oil prices and seasonal variations in demand contributed to this stabilization. Despite these challenges, the overall market was characterized by a cautious optimism as producers adjusted their strategies in response to changing economic conditions. 

India naphtha Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2025

In Q1 2025, the Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) market in CIF Nhava Sheva witnessed a slight stabilization, with average prices easing to $691/MT, marking a 1.44% decline from Q4 2024. The softening trend came as the post-festival demand moderated, and consumption in packaging and fuel blending sectors normalized.

However, steady operations in core downstream industries like petrochemicals and fertilizers prevented any major correction. Improved port activity, smoother import arrivals, and controlled refinery output helped maintain balance in the market. Overall, Q1 2025 opened with a relatively stable tone, reflecting seasonal adjustments and consistent domestic supply. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

In Q2 2025, according to the PriceWatch, Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) prices on a CIF basis at Nhava Sheva averaged 621.12 USD per metric ton, registering a -10.06% decline from 690.57 USD per metric ton in Q1 2025. The decrease was primarily driven by subdued demand from India’s downstream petrochemical and refining sectors, especially as summer-season consumption remained weak. High inventories carried over from the previous quarter further dampened fresh buying interest.

Refiners opted to scale back procurement amid expectations of continued softening in global Naphtha prices. Additionally, stable crude oil benchmarks and uninterrupted overseas supply contributed to reduced cost pressure. The Naphtha price trend remained weak, with market participants adopting a wait-and-watch approach. Overall, the Indian Naphtha market in Q2 moved into a correction phase, supported by steady supply availability and cautious downstream activity. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q1 2024

In Q1 2024, the Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) market in India observed a slight stabilization, with average prices of CIF Nhava Sheva settling at $614/MT, reflecting a 3.46% drop compared to the previous quarter. This downward trend was primarily driven by reduced buying activity from domestic petrochemical plants and a slight dip in demand from the refining and blending sectors.

The post-winter slowdown in industrial operations, especially in sectors like fertilizers and plastics, contributed to lower consumption levels. Additionally, the market experienced an abundant supply, as domestic refineries operated at consistent levels and import volumes remained steady, keeping pressure on prices during the early months of the year. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2024

In Q2 2024, Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) prices in CIF Nhava Sheva increased slightly to $627/MT, showing a 2.12% rise from Q1. The improvement was supported by a pickup in petrochemical production, as steam crackers resumed higher run rates following routine maintenance. Demand for Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) also rose in the fuel blending sector due to pre-monsoon stocking, especially by coastal refineries.

On the global front, moderate recovery in crude oil prices and stable imports played a role in the upward movement. Domestic factors such as increased packaging demand ahead of seasonal festivals and a more active industrial cycle added to the positive sentiment in the market. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q3 2024

In Q3 2024, the Indian Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) market maintained its upward momentum, with prices of CIF Nhava Sheva rising to $661/MT, reflecting a 4.52% increase over the previous quarter. This growth was largely driven by higher consumption in fertilizer and chemical manufacturing units, which ramped up production during the monsoon season.

Though rainfall disrupted logistics in some regions, it also resulted in tightened local supply, causing a mild build-up in regional prices. Additionally, delays in overseas shipments and higher global freight charges impacted the availability of imported cargoes, prompting domestic buyers to rely more on locally sourced Naphtha (Paraffin Grade), further supporting the price hike. 

Naphtha Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

In Q4 2024, Naphtha (Paraffin Grade) prices in CIF Nhava Sheva rose further to $701/MT, showing a 6.11% increase from Q3. This was mainly due to strong festive season demand, particularly from packaging, consumer goods, and petrochemical sectors. The surge in industrial output during Diwali and year-end manufacturing cycles boosted consumption across multiple downstream industries.

At the same time, global shipping challenges and firming crude prices added pressure on import costs. Indian refiners also adjusted output strategies to prioritize other fuel streams, slightly lowering domestic (Paraffin Grade) availability, which tightened the market and supported higher price levels. 

Global naphtha Supply Chain

Upstream
Downstream
  • Ethylene, Propylene, Butadiene, Benzene
  • Industrial solvents
  • agrochemical industry
Major supplying countries
  • United Arab Emirates
  • USA
  • Netherlands
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Singapore
  • Germany
Major importing countries
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Mexico
  • Canada
  • Brazil
  • Indonesia
  • Australia
  • Malaysia
  • Belgium
  • France
  • India

India naphtha Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Natural Gas Condensate
  • Crude Oil
Downstream
  • Ethylene, Propylene, Butadiene, Benzene
  • Industrial solvents
  • agrochemical industry
Major supplying countries
  • United Arab Emirates
  • USA
  • Netherlands
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Singapore
  • Germany
Major importing countries
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Mexico
  • Canada
  • Brazil
  • Indonesia
  • Australia
  • Malaysia
  • Belgium
  • France
  • India

Technical Specifications of Naphtha Price Trends

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

100–215 g/mol

CAS No

64742-94-5(Solvent Grade - Light),64742-47-8(Paraffin Grade)

HS Code

2707500 (Solvent Grade - Light) ,27101290 (Paraffin Grade)

Molecular Formula

naphtha

Naphtha is a versatile, liquid hydrocarbon product derived from crude oil and is widely used in the petrochemical industry. Known for its high flammability and ease of conversion, Naphtha is essential as a feedstock in producing ethylene, propylene, and other critical petrochemicals. These derivatives are the building blocks for a wide range of products, including plastics, synthetic Fibers, and resins. Additionally, Naphtha is used in the refining industry for gasoline blending, enhancing fuel performance. Its adaptability and role in producing essential materials make Naphtha a key component in various industrial applications.

Packaging Type

Drum

Naphtha Grades Covered

Paraffin Grade, Solvent Grade (Light)

Incoterms Used

FOB Houston, FOB Jebel Ali, FOB Singapore, FOB Jeddah, FOB Rotterdam, FD Le Havre, FD Hamburg, FD Antwerp, CIF Tokyo (UAE), CIF Santos (USA), CIF Port Kelang (Singapore), CIF Nhava Sheva (Singapore, Saudi Arabia), CIF Montreal (USA), CIF Melbourne (Singapore), CIF Manzanillo (USA), CIF Jakarta (Singapore), CIF Busan (UAE).

Synonym

Petroleum Naphtha, Petroleum ether.

PriceWatch Quotation Terms:

25- 30 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property   Solvent Grade (Light)  Paraffin Grade 
Boiling Point (°C)  40-80  40-80 
Physical State  Liquid  Liquid 
Appearance  Dark straw color to colorless liquid.  Saybolt 
VAPOUR PRESSURE at 35 °C mm/Hg  758 – 896 h Pa at 20 °C (68 °F)  – 
VAPOUR DENSITY (AIR= 1)  2.5  – 
SOLUBILITY IN H2O at 30 °C   Negligible  – 
SPECIFIC GRAVITY (H2O=1)   0.97  – 
Density @ 15 deg. C, kg / m3, Max  –  700 
Total Paraffins, % by Vol, Max  –  60-65 
Sulphur Total, ppm w, Max  –  650 
Olefins, % by Volume, Max  –  1 
Aromatics, % by Volume  –  10 to 12 
Naphthenes, % by Vol, Max  –  By Balance 

Naphtha Industrial Applications

Naphtha is primarily used as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry to produce key chemicals, including Ethylene, Propylene, and Butadiene. These chemicals are essential for manufacturing a wide range of products, such as plastics, synthetic Fibers, and resins. Additionally, Naphtha plays a crucial role in gasoline blending, improving fuel quality and performance. Its versatility and usefulness as an intermediate make Naphtha vital for multiple industrial applications. 

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Naphtha prices

  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022-2024): Disruptions in energy supply chains across Europe led to spikes in Naphtha prices due to increased demand for alternative sources and limited supply availability. 
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): The pandemic initially caused a sharp decline in Naphtha demand due to lockdowns and decreased industrial activity. However, as economies reopened and demand for packaging materials surged, Naphtha prices rebounded quickly. 
  • Shale Oil and Gas Expansion (2015-2020): The U.S. shale boom increased Naphtha supply globally, lowering prices as North American exports expanded. This trend bolstered the market with abundant supply, but it also added volatility due to fluctuating production costs. 
  • U.S.-China Trade Tensions (2018-2019): Trade disputes disrupted global supply chains, impacting the Naphtha market with pricing instability as tariffs and sanctions affected the availability and flow of petrochemical feedstocks. 
  • Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Production Cuts (2016-2018): OPEC and allied countries implemented production cuts to stabilize global oil prices, which indirectly raised Naphtha costs due to higher crude oil prices and constrained supply. 

 

These events highlight Naphtha’s sensitivity to global disruptions, underscoring the need for close monitoring of market trends and geopolitical influences. 

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global naphtha price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the naphtha market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence naphtha prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely naphtha market data.

Track PriceWatch's naphtha price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch gathers real-time pricing information from a wide range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This allows our Naphtha assessments to accurately reflect the latest market conditions. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from essential market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major Naphtha production hubs. This localized intelligence is vital for capturing specific market dynamics. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire Naphtha supply chain, from crude oil availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, refinery outputs, and logistics, providing a comprehensive view of the market’s operational health. 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch closely monitors geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade sanctions, which may disrupt global Naphtha supply chains and impact pricing. Our analysis assesses both immediate and long-term implications for market stability. 
  • Oil Price Volatility: As Naphtha is derived from crude oil, shifts in oil prices directly affect Naphtha costs. We factor in significant oil price changes driven by OPEC decisions, international demand shifts, and supply disruptions. 
  • Economic Conditions: PriceWatch evaluates economic trends, including global GDP growth, inflation, and demand from sectors such as petrochemicals, to predict fluctuations in Naphtha demand and corresponding price movements. 

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Naphtha production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This enables accurate assessments of available supply. 
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes projections of upcoming Naphtha production capacities, incorporating new refinery constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in forecasting supply trends and potential price impacts.

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors such as petrochemicals and transportation. We track year-over-year demand growth and forecast future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry advancements. 
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional variations in demand and their influence on global Naphtha pricing. 


This includes shifts in manufacturing bases, trade regulations, and environmental policies impacting consumption.

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch uses advanced econometric models to forecast Naphtha prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market factors. Our models are refined continuously to improve accuracy and predictive capabilities. 
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based analyses to evaluate potential market conditions. These scenarios include best-case, worst-case, and most-likely outcomes, helping clients prepare for a range of market possibilities. 

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that cover current price assessments, future forecasts, and deep analyses of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and strategic recommendations. 
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and dedicated support to clients, ensuring they have the most recent information for making informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market events and offer tailored guidance. 

This methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers accurate, timely, and actionable Naphtha pricing assessments, empowering our clients to stay ahead of market trends and make well-informed business decisions. 

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

100–215 g/mol

CAS No

64742-94-5(Solvent Grade - Light),64742-47-8(Paraffin Grade)

HS Code

2707500 (Solvent Grade - Light) ,27101290 (Paraffin Grade)

Molecular Formula

naphtha

Naphtha is a versatile, liquid hydrocarbon product derived from crude oil and is widely used in the petrochemical industry. Known for its high flammability and ease of conversion, Naphtha is essential as a feedstock in producing ethylene, propylene, and other critical petrochemicals. These derivatives are the building blocks for a wide range of products, including plastics, synthetic Fibers, and resins. Additionally, Naphtha is used in the refining industry for gasoline blending, enhancing fuel performance. Its adaptability and role in producing essential materials make Naphtha a key component in various industrial applications.

Packaging Type

Drum

Grades Covered

Paraffin Grade, Solvent Grade (Light)

Incoterms Used

FOB Houston, FOB Jebel Ali, FOB Singapore, FOB Jeddah, FOB Rotterdam, FD Le Havre, FD Hamburg, FD Antwerp, CIF Tokyo (UAE), CIF Santos (USA), CIF Port Kelang (Singapore), CIF Nhava Sheva (Singapore, Saudi Arabia), CIF Montreal (USA), CIF Melbourne (Singapore), CIF Manzanillo (USA), CIF Jakarta (Singapore), CIF Busan (UAE).

Synonym

Petroleum Naphtha, Petroleum ether.

PriceWatch Quotation Terms:

25- 30 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property   Solvent Grade (Light)  Paraffin Grade 
Boiling Point (°C)  40-80  40-80 
Physical State  Liquid  Liquid 
Appearance  Dark straw color to colorless liquid.  Saybolt 
VAPOUR PRESSURE at 35 °C mm/Hg  758 – 896 h Pa at 20 °C (68 °F)  – 
VAPOUR DENSITY (AIR= 1)  2.5  – 
SOLUBILITY IN H2O at 30 °C   Negligible  – 
SPECIFIC GRAVITY (H2O=1)   0.97  – 
Density @ 15 deg. C, kg / m3, Max  –  700 
Total Paraffins, % by Vol, Max  –  60-65 
Sulphur Total, ppm w, Max  –  650 
Olefins, % by Volume, Max  –  1 
Aromatics, % by Volume  –  10 to 12 
Naphthenes, % by Vol, Max  –  By Balance 

Applications

Naphtha is primarily used as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry to produce key chemicals, including Ethylene, Propylene, and Butadiene. These chemicals are essential for manufacturing a wide range of products, such as plastics, synthetic Fibers, and resins. Additionally, Naphtha plays a crucial role in gasoline blending, improving fuel quality and performance. Its versatility and usefulness as an intermediate make Naphtha vital for multiple industrial applications. 

Naphtha Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for naphtha. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Naphtha prices are influenced by several key factors, including crude oil price fluctuations, demand from the petrochemical industry, and seasonal changes. Additionally, geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, and feedstock availability can impact Naphtha pricing. Monitoring these variables closely is essential for procurement teams aiming to anticipate price trends and optimize costs.

As Naphtha is a petroleum-based product, its pricing is heavily tied to crude oil costs. When crude oil prices rise due to production cuts or supply issues, Naphtha prices tend to increase. Conversely, a drop in crude oil prices can lead to more affordable Naphtha. Procurement heads should keep a close watch on crude oil market developments to manage Naphtha sourcing effectively.

Naphtha prices can vary by region due to factors like refining capacities, regional demand, and transportation costs. For instance, regions with significant petrochemical production may have more competitive Naphtha prices due to higher local demand. Procurement teams can leverage these differences by diversifying sourcing locations and exploring cost-effective options in markets with favorable pricing.

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