NPK Price Trend & Forecast

NPK Price Trend Q1 2025

According to Price Watch™, in Q1 2025 the NPK 15-15-15 market on an FOB Saint Petersburg basis, remained largely stable compared with the previous quarter, showing no significant price change during the period. Feedstock inputs such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash maintained relatively steady pricing, allowing fertilizer manufacturers to operate with predictable production costs.

Demand from the agricultural sector stayed moderate as distributors and farmers maintained routine procurement for early season nutrient applications. Market participants reported balanced supply availability as production at major fertilizer facilities operated at steady utilization rates.

Export trading activity remained consistent with shipments moving to several agricultural markets preparing for seasonal crop requirements. Consumption patterns remained stable as buyers relied mainly on regular purchasing cycles rather than aggressive stock building. Overall, the market maintained a balanced outlook, supported by stable feedstock costs and adequate supply conditions throughout the quarter.

According to Price Watch™, in Q1 2025 the NPK 15-15-15 market on an Ex- West India basis, witnessed a notable upward movement with prices increasing by around 6% compared to the previous quarter. The rise is primarily supported by firm feedstock values, particularly ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash, which contributed to higher production costs for compound fertilizer manufacturers.

Demand from the agricultural sector strengthened as farmers prepared for seasonal crop cycles and nutrient application programs across several farming regions. Distributors and retailers increased procurement volumes in anticipation of stronger fertilizer consumption during the planting period.

Production activities at domestic fertilizer plants are maintained at stable to slightly elevated operating rates to ensure adequate supply availability in the market. Supply conditions remained balanced due to consistent domestic output and steady import arrivals.

Consumption patterns improved steadily as buyers showed stronger interest in securing inventories. Overall, the NPK market displayed firm fundamentals supported by improved agricultural demand and higher feedstock costs.

NPK Price Trend Q2 2025

According to Price Watch™, in Q2 2025 the NPK 15-15-15 market on an FOB Saint Petersburg basis, recorded a moderate upward movement with prices increasing by around 5% compared to the previous quarter. The improvement is supported by firmer agricultural demand and stronger fertilizer trading activity across international markets.

Feedstock components including ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively stable but slightly firm, providing cost support to compound fertilizer producers. Demand strengthened as distributors and importers increased procurement ahead of major planting seasons in several regions.

Production at fertilizer manufacturing complexes operated at steady to slightly higher utilization rates to meet the improved demand outlook. Supply conditions remained adequate due to consistent production and stable export shipments.

Consumption patterns improved as buyers showed greater willingness to restock inventories during the quarter. Overall, the NPK market maintained a firm tone supported by stronger demand and stable feedstock fundamentals.

According to Price Watch™, in Q2 2025 the NPK 15-15-15 market on an Ex- West India basis, recorded a further price increase of approximately 5% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting sustained momentum in fertilizer demand and supportive feedstock conditions.

Key raw materials such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively firm, providing cost support to domestic fertilizer producers and influencing market pricing.

Demand from the agricultural sector remained robust as farmers continued nutrient applications for crop growth stages and soil nutrient management. Fertilizer distributors maintained active procurement strategies to ensure availability during the peak agricultural season.

Production at major fertilizer facilities operated at healthy utilization levels, allowing manufacturers to maintain steady supply flows across the domestic market. Supply remained adequate due to consistent manufacturing output and ongoing imports of raw materials. Consumption stayed strong as agricultural activity remained active. Overall, the NPK market maintained a firm and positive outlook throughout the quarter.

NPK Price Trend Q3 2025

India: NPK Domestically traded Price Ex-West, India; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

In India the NPK market in Q3 2025 experienced a slight decline of around 2% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting softer pricing conditions despite stable agricultural demand. Feedstock inputs such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively balanced during the quarter, offering moderate cost stability for domestic fertilizer producers.

Demand from the agricultural sector stayed steady as farmers continued nutrient applications for kharif crops, though procurement activity remained cautious and largely need based. Production levels at major fertilizer plants are maintained at balanced operating rates to align supply with prevailing consumption patterns and avoid inventory buildup.

Supply availability across domestic markets remained adequate due to consistent manufacturing output and steady imports. Consumption trends remained stable across major agricultural states as distributors maintained routine supply to farming regions.

In September 2025, NPK prices declined by around 1% as compared to November, dueto comfortable supply availability and cautious distributor purchasing activity. Overall, the Indian NPK market remained balanced but slightly soft during the quarter.

Russia: NPK Export prices St. Petersburg, Russia; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

In Russia the NPK market in Q3 2025 recorded a moderate increase of around 3% compared to the previous quarter, supported by steady agricultural demand and improved fertilizer trading activity. Feedstock components including ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively stable, enabling producers to maintain controlled production costs throughout the period.

Demand from domestic agriculture strengthened gradually as farmers increased fertilizer procurement for seasonal crop nutrient requirements. Production at large fertilizer complexes remained steady, with manufacturers maintaining efficient operating rates to support both domestic consumption and export commitments.

Supply availability remained comfortable due to Russia’s strong fertilizer manufacturing capacity and stable export flows to international markets. Consumption improved moderately as distributors increased procurement to meet agricultural demand.

In September 2025, NPK prices remained stable with no major change due to balanced supply levels and cautious buying activity. Overall, the Russian NPK market maintained a firm and stable outlook.

Morocco: NPK Export prices Jorf Lasfar, Morocco; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

In Morocco the NPK market in Q3 2025 witnessed a strong upward trend with prices rising by approximately 8% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting stronger export demand and supportive feedstock conditions. Key inputs such as phosphoric acid, ammonia, and potash remained relatively firm, providing cost support to compound fertilizer production during the quarter.

Demand from international markets strengthened as several importing regions increased fertilizer procurement ahead of seasonal agricultural requirements. Production activities at major fertilizer facilities remained robust, supported by Morocco’s well established phosphate based fertilizer industry. Supply availability remained adequate as manufacturers maintained consistent production and export shipments.

Consumption from key global agricultural markets improved significantly, contributing to stronger trade activity throughout the period. In September 2025, NPK prices in Morocco increased by around 1% as compared to November, dueto firm export demand and improved buying interest from international markets. Overall, the Moroccan NPK market remained strong with firm pricing momentum supported by export driven demand.

Germany: NPK Imported prices Hamburg, Germany; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

In Germany the NPK market in Q3 2025 witnessed a moderate improvement with prices rising by around 2% compared to the previous quarter, supported by seasonal agricultural demand and balanced supply conditions across the European fertilizer sector. Feedstock materials such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively firm during the quarter, which provided cost support to compound fertilizer producers.

Demand from farmers increased gradually as nutrient application for late summer crops and soil preparation activities progressed. Production levels at fertilizer manufacturing facilities are maintained at steady operating rates, ensuring sufficient supply to meet regional consumption requirements. Supply across domestic and neighboring European markets remained adequate due to consistent production and stable trade flows.

Consumption patterns improved moderately as distributors increased procurement to meet agricultural demand. In September 2025, NPK prices remained stable with no major change due to balanced supply availability and cautious end user purchasing. Overall, the German NPK market maintained a firm yet stable outlook.

Nigeria: NPK Imported prices Apapa, Nigeria; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

In Nigeria the NPK market in Q3 2025 experienced a strong upward movement with prices increasing by approximately 7% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting improved agricultural demand and active fertilizer distribution programs. Feedstock inputs including ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively stable, enabling blending plants to maintain steady production costs despite stronger market activity.

Demand from the agricultural sector increased significantly as government supported fertilizer initiatives and seasonal crop planting boosted purchasing across key farming regions. Production at domestic blending facilities operated at higher utilization rates to meet rising consumption requirements.

Supply conditions remained adequate due to steady imports of raw materials and consistent blending activity. Consumption improved considerably as farmers increased fertilizer usage during the planting season.

In September 2025, NPK prices increased by around 1% as compared to November, due to steady agricultural demand and distributor restocking activity. Overall, the Nigerian NPK market showed strong demand driven growth during the quarter.

Thailand: NPK Imported prices Laem Chabang, Thailand; Grade- NPK 16-16-16

In Thailand the NPK market in Q3 2025 recorded a moderate rise of around 2% compared with the previous quarter, reflecting improved agricultural demand and steady fertilizer trade activity in the region. Feedstock components including ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively stable throughout the quarter, allowing fertilizer blenders to maintain controlled production costs.

Demand from farmers strengthened as seasonal planting activities increased nutrient requirements for crops such as rice and plantation commodities. Production levels at local blending facilities remained steady as manufacturers adjusted output to match rising consumption trends.

Supply availability remained comfortable due to stable import flows from major fertilizer producing countries. Consumption improved gradually as distributors increased procurement to support agricultural requirements.

In September 2025, NPK prices remained stable with no significant change due to balanced supply availability and cautious distributor purchasing activity. Overall, the Thai NPK market maintained steady growth supported by seasonal agricultural demand.

China: NPK Domestically traded Price Ex-Shandong, China; Grade- NPK 15-15-15 Cl

In China the NPK market in Q3 2025 observed a mild increase of about 1% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting stable market fundamentals and steady agricultural consumption. Feedstock inputs such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively stable during the quarter, providing consistent cost support for compound fertilizer manufacturers.

Demand from the agricultural sector remained moderate as farmers continued fertilizer application for summer and early autumn crops across major farming provinces. Production at large fertilizer plants operated at balanced rates to maintain supply availability and avoid excessive inventory accumulation.

Supply conditions across both domestic and export markets remained sufficient due to China’s strong fertilizer manufacturing capacity. Consumption trends remained stable as distributors maintained routine procurement cycles.

In September 2025, NPK prices remained stable with no major change due to adequate supply availability and cautious buyer procurement behaviour. Overall, the Chinese NPK market remained stable with modest upward momentum.

NPK Price Trend Q4 2025

NPK fertilizer sales exhibited a marginal drop of approximately 1% in Q4 2025 relative to the preceding quarter, owing to stable but slightly subdued market performance. The cost of feedstocks like ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash exhibited marginal stability within the quarter, thus not significantly affecting production expenses for the manufacture of compound fertilizers.

Demand from the agriculture industry has been stable since farmers applied nutrients in a routine manner to cultivate winter crops; however, purchases are done on a need-basis and in a conservative manner.

The production trend of leading fertilizer plants is stable, with manufacturers matching their production volumes to demand trends to prevent stock build-up. Supply conditions within the domestic and foreign markets are sufficient, fueled by consistent manufacturing processes and imports.

Consumption levels in major agricultural areas are stable, with consumers refraining from aggressive hoarding owing to sufficient supplies. In general, the market exhibited an essentially balanced performance, marked by stable feedstock costs and supply, which kept prices stable.

Morocco: NPK Export prices Jorf Lasfar, Morocco; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

The NPK price in Morocco in Q4 2025 experienced a slight decline of approximately 1% compared with the previous quarter, reflecting balanced supply conditions and moderate downstream demand. Feedstock inputs such as phosphoric acid, ammonia, and potash remained relatively stable, enabling producers to maintain controlled production costs throughout the quarter.

Demand from both domestic agriculture and export markets remained steady as fertilizer consumption continued for seasonal crop nutrient requirements across several importing regions. Production activities at major fertilizer facilities remained consistent, supported by Morocco’s strong phosphate-based fertilizer manufacturing infrastructure.

Supply availability in international markets remained adequate, with exporters maintaining stable shipment volumes to key destinations. Consumption patterns stayed stable but cautious, as buyers relied on regular procurement cycles rather than aggressive stocking.

In December 2025, NPK prices in Morocco declined by around 1% as compared to November, due to balanced supply availability and moderate purchasing activity in export markets. Overall NPK price trend in Morocco remained steady with slightly soft pricing sentiment.

Germany: NPK Imported prices Hamburg, Germany; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

NPK price in Germany in Q4 2025 experienced a mild decline of around 1% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting slightly softer trading conditions across the European fertilizer sector. Feedstock inputs such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively stable during the quarter, allowing fertilizer manufacturers to maintain predictable production costs.

Demand from the agricultural sector remained moderate as farmers continued nutrient applications for winter crops, although purchasing activity is largely cautious and based on immediate requirements. Production levels at compound fertilizer facilities are maintained at balanced operating rates to align with seasonal consumption patterns and prevent inventory accumulation.

Supply availability remained comfortable due to steady domestic output and intra-European trade flows. Consumption across major farming regions stayed stable but measured. In December 2025, NPK price in Germany declined by around 1% as compared to November, due to cautious distributor purchasing and adequate product availability across regional markets. Overall, the NPK price trend in Germany maintained a stable but slightly soft outlook supported by balanced supply and moderate agricultural demand.

Nigeria: NPK Imported prices Apapa, Nigeria; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

NPK price in Nigeria in Q4 2025 recorded a slight decline of approximately 1% from the previous quarter, reflecting balanced but somewhat softer fertilizer trading conditions. Feedstock materials including ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained largely stable, enabling local blending plants to maintain steady production cost structures.

Agricultural demand continued across key crop growing regions, particularly staple food crops, although distributors adopted a cautious procurement strategy amid comfortable supply levels. Domestic production at blending facilities operated at moderate rates, supported by government-backed fertilizer programs and consistent input availability.

Supply remained adequate due to both local blending activity and ongoing imports through major ports. Consumption patterns stayed stable as farmers maintained routine fertilizer application schedules.

In December 2025, NPK price in Nigeria declined by around 1% as compared to November, due to balanced supply conditions and cautious distributor restocking activity within the domestic fertilizer market. Overall, the NPK price trend in Nigeria remained stable with slightly weak pricing sentiment amid adequate availability.

Thailand: NPK Imported prices Laem Chabang, Thailand; Grade- NPK 16-16-16

NPK price in Thailand in Q4 2025 witnessed a marginal decline of about 1% compared to the previous quarter as market conditions remained balanced but slightly softer. Feedstock components such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash showed relative stability during the quarter, providing limited volatility in fertilizer production costs.

Demand from the agricultural sector remained steady as farmers prepared nutrient requirements for seasonal crop cultivation, though purchasing activity remained largely needed based. Domestic blending facilities maintained steady production rates to match prevailing consumption trends and avoid excess inventories.

Supply availability remained sufficient due to consistent import flows and stable regional trade activity. Consumption across major agricultural areas remained stable with measured procurement behavior from distributors.

In December 2025, NPK price in Thailand declined by around 1% as compared to November, due to comfortable supply availability and cautious purchasing by agricultural distributors. Overall, the NPK price trend in Thailand displayed balanced fundamentals with slightly softer pricing momentum.

China: NPK Domestically traded Price Ex-Shandong, China; Grade- NPK 15-15-15 Cl

NPK price in China in Q4 2025 remained largely stable compared with the previous quarter, with prices showing no significant change during the period. Feedstock inputs including ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash remained relatively steady, allowing compound fertilizer producers to maintain consistent production cost levels.

Agricultural demand remained moderate as fertilizer application continued for winter crop cultivation across several farming regions. Procurement from distributors and farmers remained steady but cautious, reflecting balanced inventory levels within the market.

Production activities at major fertilizer plants operated at controlled rates as manufacturers aligned output with consumption trends and export requirements. Supply availability remained sufficient across both domestic and export markets supported by China’s large fertilizer manufacturing capacity.

In December 2025, NPK price in China remained stable with no major change due to balanced demand conditions and adequate supply availability across the market. Overall, the NPK price trend in China maintained a neutral outlook supported by stable feedstock costs and steady agricultural consumption.

India: NPK Domestically traded Price Ex-West, India; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

The NPK price in India has seen to experience a slight drop in its pricing performance during the fourth quarter of 2025 with an average reduction in prices by about 2%. Inputs such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash experienced stability in their costs and therefore put little strain on domestic compound fertilizer manufacturers.

The NPK price trend in India from the agriculture industry has been moderate since the farmers has used up all the nutrients required for rabi crop production. Production is sustained at balanced levels in relation to consumption to avoid having excessive stock build-ups.

Supply in the market has been comfortable as production is being done domestically at balanced levels, while imports also kept coming in through various domestic ports. Consumption trends do not indicate any signs of aggressivity as prices are slightly soft. In December 2025, NPK price in India fell by 1% when compared with those of November 2025 due to cautious procurement and sufficient stocks.

Russia: NPK Export prices St. Petersburg, Russia; Grade- NPK 15-15-15

The NPK price in Russia saw a minor decrease of about 1% in Q4 2025, demonstrating steady market dynamics. The price of raw materials such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash experienced no significant changes, enabling fertilizer manufacturers to sustain low costs during that quarter.

The NPK price trend in Russia from the agricultural industry has been modest, considering the ongoing application of the fertilizer on the fields for the purpose of preparing crops for winter and replenishing nutrients in the soil. The volume of production at large-scale fertilizer plants is consistent, with the producers making efforts to maintain balanced output volumes corresponding to consumption needs and exports.

Supply volumes are sufficient in both domestic and export markets owing to Russia’s high capacity for fertilizer production. The pattern of consumption do not change considerably, with consumers showing little eagerness to purchase additional fertilizer supplies as supply volumes are sufficient. In December 2025, NPK price in Russia fell by about 1%when compared to November due to stable prices for raw materials and adequate supply conditions.