China
United States
India
United Arab Emirates
Japan
MalaysiaIn Q1 2025, CPO prices declined sharply as weak demand failed to sustain Q4 momentum. Chinese buying remained softer than anticipated, while Indian imports slowed amid ample inventories. The correction accelerated in March when prices hit a three-month low, reflecting reduced confidence in consumption growth.
However, downside risks were partially offset by emerging production concerns in Malaysia and Indonesia as dry conditions began impacting yields. The quarter highlighted the ongoing tug-of-war between bearish demand signals and tightening supply projections, with volatility persisting within a narrow band. According to PriceWatch, CPO prices averaged USD 1,077/MT FOB Port Kelang in Q1 2025.
In Q2 2025, crude palm oil (CPO) prices continued their corrective trend, averaging lower as the market adjusted from Q1 highs. Elevated Malaysian palm stocks kept a lid on gains, even as production forecasts were revised downward due to dry weather impacts. While biodiesel demand in the EU showed signs of recovery, Indian imports remained subdued amid high inventories, further limiting price strength.
Seasonal production concerns offered late-quarter support, with prices rebounding modestly in July, suggesting the establishment of a new trading band. Overall, mixed fundamentals created a cautious sentiment as the market balanced tightening supply expectations with weak regional buying. CPO prices averaged USD 939/MT FOB Port Kelang in Q2 2025.
2024 opened with CPO prices moving within a narrow range, reflecting balanced fundamentals and a lack of strong directional cues. Indian and Chinese demand remained subdued, while high global vegetable oil inventories exerted pressure on sentiment. Nonetheless, production concerns in Malaysia and firm crude oil prices offered limited support.
The quarter demonstrated a market searching for clear catalysts, oscillating between bearish demand trends and potential tightening of supply. This stability foreshadowed the more volatile moves that would unfold later in the year as weather and policy developments shaped fundamentals. According to PriceWatch, CPO prices averaged USD 828/MT FOB Port Kelang in Q1 2024.
Q2 2024 marked a modest recovery in CPO prices following Q1’s slump, driven by seasonal production factors and improving export demand. Indian and Chinese buying picked up marginally, supporting steady price gains through June. However, high inventory levels in Malaysia and abundant soybean oil supplies continued to restrict the pace of recovery.
Concerns about potential yield impacts from earlier dry spells began surfacing, but the market struggled to break out of its established trading range. Overall, the quarter highlighted palm oil’s continued sensitivity to competitive vegetable oil dynamics and export demand fluctuations. According to PriceWatch, CPO prices averaged USD 857/MT FOB Port Kelang in Q2 2024.
In Q3 2024, CPO prices recovered steadily from mid-year lows on the back of tightening supply and stronger pre-festive demand. El Niño-induced dry weather reduced yield expectations in Malaysia and Indonesia, while export activity to India and the Middle East surged ahead of seasonal festivals. EU biodiesel mandates added further buying momentum. Prices peaked in late September, reflecting tightening physical availability.
However, market participants remained cautious about demand elasticity above key resistance levels, signalling limited scope for further gains. The quarter emphasized supply risks as the primary price driver amid still-fragile demand. According to PriceWatch, CPO prices averaged USD 932/MT FOB Port Kelang in Q3 2024.
Q4 2024 witnessed a sharp rebound in CPO prices as supply tightened, and demand strengthened. Malaysian palm stocks declined amid robust biodiesel blending mandates and heavy pre-holiday stockpiling in key importing nations. The rally peaked in mid-December before mild profit-taking emerged, but prices remained elevated relative to competing vegetable oils, enabling palm oil to regain market share in price-sensitive destinations.
Concerns over demand sustainability surfaced late in the quarter, yet tight fundamentals kept the market supported. This period marked the strongest quarterly performance since 2022, reinforcing palm oil’s competitiveness. According to PriceWatch, CPO prices averaged USD 1,124/MT FOB Port Kelang in Q4 2024.
Crude palm oil prices fell sharply in Q1 2025 as profit-taking and improved Malaysian production outlooks ended Q4’s rally. While Indian buyers opportunistically rebuilt inventories at lower levels, Indonesia’s fluctuating export policies created brief regional dislocations. The quarter highlighted palm oil’s growing sensitivity to renewable diesel mandates and broader energy price movements.
Despite mid-quarter weakness, technical support emerged from tightening Southeast Asian yields, limiting deeper corrections. Market participants closely monitored Chinese buying patterns, which remained subdued. Overall, Q1 underscored a delicate balance between easing supply concerns and moderate demand. According to PriceWatch, CPO prices averaged approximately USD 1,161/MT CIF Nhava Sheva in Q1 2025.
In Q2 2025, crude palm oil prices softened as the market corrected from earlier highs. Volatility persisted amid competing forces tightening Malaysian stocks and strong Indian festive demand supported sentiment, while increased Indonesian exports and weaker soybean oil prices exerted downward pressure. Biofuel policy shifts in Southeast Asia further added to uncertainty, creating short-lived price swings.
Despite mid-quarter weakness, the market stabilized toward July, suggesting a potential floor as supply tightened ahead of the peak production season. By late June, renewed buying interest hinted at recovering demand momentum, although sentiment remained fragile. According to PriceWatch, CPO prices averaged around USD 1,040/MT CIF Nhava Sheva in Q2 2025.
The Palm oil market opened 2024 with firm prices as post-harvest production lows supported early-year sentiment. Volatility was driven by uncertainty around Indonesia’s export policy, with prices oscillating in response to shifting government announcements. Indian imports remained surprisingly resilient despite elevated costs, though high port stocks occasionally created logistical bottlenecks.
This period established a new pricing floor above USD 850/MT, setting the stage for the historic rally seen later in the year. It also reflected palm oil’s increasing linkage with energy and biofuel price dynamics. CPO prices averaged close to USD 884/MT CIF Nhava Sheva in Q1 2024.
Indian refiners faced negative processing margins at the quarter’s peak, reflecting the pressure of elevated feedstock costs on downstream operations. Q2 2024 extended the palm oil rally as Malaysian production lagged seasonal expectations while Indonesian export restrictions curbed global availability.
The market saw two distinct phases: a brief May correction on profit-taking, followed by a June surge as monsoon-related supply concerns intensified. Despite higher prices, demand from key Asian buyers persisted, underlining palm oil’s critical role in regional edible oil supply chains. CPO prices averaged about USD 974/MT CIF Nhava Sheva in Q2 2024.
In Q3 2024, crude palm oil prices rose steadily as El Niño-induced dry weather reduced yield expectations in Malaysia and Indonesia. Inventory levels in Malaysia dropped to multi-year lows, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Indian import demand stayed resilient despite escalating prices, supported by favourable import duty structures.
The quarter also marked a key structural shift, with palm oil transitioning into a premium-priced vegetable oil rather than maintaining its traditional discount to soft oils like soybean oil. Physical availability tightened as seasonal demand accelerated ahead of key festivals. CPO prices averaged around USD 996/MT CIF Nhava Sheva in Q3 2024.
Q4 2024 saw an exceptional rally in crude palm oil as supply fears overwhelmed the market. Severe Malaysian production shortfalls, Indonesia’s domestic market obligation policy, and panic buying by Indian refiners ahead of the festive season pushed prices past key psychological levels. The surge was amplified by speculative activity, creating extreme weekly swings before profit-taking emerged late in December.
The quarter reflected a “perfect storm” of tight supply and policy-driven volatility, cementing palm oil’s premium over competing vegetable oils. Market fundamentals remained fragile despite the late pullback. CPO prices averaged nearly USD 1,268/MT CIF Nhava Sheva in Q4 2024.
Molecular Weight[g/mol]
CAS No
HS Code
Molecular Formula
Palm oil is a versatile raw material extensively used in the food, oleochemical, and energy industries. In the food sector, it serves as a primary ingredient in the production of cooking oils, margarine, instant noodles, bakery fats, and processed snacks, thanks to its semi-solid consistency and high saturation level, which enhances shelf stability and texture. Palm oil is a natural oil extracted from the mesocarp (fleshy part) of the oil palm fruit (Elaeis guineensis). It is typically reddish-orange in colour due to its high content of natural carotenoids, particularly beta-carotene. CPO is semi-solid at room temperature and has a distinct, earthy odour. It is a versatile raw material used across multiple sectors, particularly in food, energy, and industrial applications.
Packaging Type
Palm Oil Grades Covered
Incoterms Used
Synonym
PriceWatch Quotation Terms:
Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.
| Physical Property | Value (Palm Oil) |
| Physical state | Semi-solid to viscous liquid at room temperature |
| Colour | Deep orange to reddish due to high carotene content |
| Odour | Distinct, earthy to slightly pungent |
| Melting point/freezing point | 33–39 °C |
| Boiling point or initial boiling point and range | >300 °C (decomposes before boiling) |
| Flammability | Non-flammable under normal conditions |
| Lower and upper explosion limit | Not applicable |
| Flash point | >250 °C (open cup) |
| Auto-ignition temperature | ~350 °C |
| pH (value) | Not applicable (non-aqueous) |
| Kinematic viscosity | 40–55 mm²/s at 40 °C |
| Dynamic viscosity | 35–45 mPa·s at 40 °C |
| Water solubility | Insoluble in water |
| Partition coefficient n-octanol/water (log value) | ~6.5–7.0 |
| Vapour pressure | Negligible at 20 °C |
Palm Oil Applications
In oleochemical and soap manufacturing, Palm oil is refined and split into fatty acids and glycerine, serving as a base for detergents, surfactants, candles, and personal care products. After refining (to produce RBD Palm Oil), it becomes suitable for edible oil formulations and blending. Palm oil also plays a significant role in biofuel production, particularly biodiesel, in both producing and importing countries due to its relatively high yield and cost-efficiency. Its economic importance is further amplified in developing regions, where it is a staple for food security and industrial feedstock.
Climate and Farming Impact – (2024)
Unpredictable weather patterns—including prolonged dry periods in Indonesia and excessive rains in Malaysia—negatively affected palm fruit yields and oil extraction rates. This coincided with rising global demand for edible oils and stronger biodiesel mandates in producing nations. Meanwhile, increasing enforcement of sustainability certifications and deforestation-free supply chain regulations in the EU and North America introduced new compliance costs, tightening export margins and further influencing price dynamics.
Feedstock & Logistic Disruptions – (2023)
Southeast Asia faced heavy rainfall and flooding, which hindered harvesting activities and transportation. Logistics challenges such as freight rate spikes, container shortages, and port delays intensified the disruption. Export restrictions and fluctuating stock levels in key destinations led to intermittent supply gaps and contributed to volatile price behaviour in the international Palm oil market.
Russia-Ukraine War – (2022)
The war significantly disrupted the global sunflower and canola oil supply chains, prompting a global shift toward alternative oils like palm oil. As one of the most accessible and affordable options, Palm oil experienced a sharp rise in demand, especially in the food processing and refining sectors. Simultaneously, rising fertilizer, energy, and freight costs inflated upstream production expenses, driving Palm oil prices to multi-year highs.
Post-COVID Demand Recovery – (2021)
As global economies began to reopen, demand for crude palm oil rebounded, particularly in India, China, and Africa, where palm oil is a staple in edible oil consumption. However, the production recovery lagged due to persistent labour shortages and pandemic-era restrictions, leading to tight supplies and escalating prices. Increased interest in biodiesel blending mandates in Southeast Asia also added upward pressure on Palm oil prices.
The COVID-19 Pandemic – (2020)
Global lockdowns severely disrupted the palm oil supply chain, from plantation labour availability to milling and export operations. In major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia, labour shortages, transport restrictions, and port closures caused harvest backlogs and lower processing volumes. Simultaneously, reduced demand from food service, hospitality, and biofuel sectors led to rising inventories and significant price volatility in the global vegetable oil market.
PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global palm oil price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the palm oil market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.
In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence palm oil prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely palm oil market data.
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This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable palm oil pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.
Molecular Weight[g/mol]
CAS No
HS Code
Molecular Formula
Palm oil is a versatile raw material extensively used in the food, oleochemical, and energy industries. In the food sector, it serves as a primary ingredient in the production of cooking oils, margarine, instant noodles, bakery fats, and processed snacks, thanks to its semi-solid consistency and high saturation level, which enhances shelf stability and texture. Palm oil is a natural oil extracted from the mesocarp (fleshy part) of the oil palm fruit (Elaeis guineensis). It is typically reddish-orange in colour due to its high content of natural carotenoids, particularly beta-carotene. CPO is semi-solid at room temperature and has a distinct, earthy odour. It is a versatile raw material used across multiple sectors, particularly in food, energy, and industrial applications.
Packaging Type
Grades Covered
Incoterms Used
Synonym
PriceWatch Quotation Terms:
Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.
| Physical Property | Value (Palm Oil) |
| Physical state | Semi-solid to viscous liquid at room temperature |
| Colour | Deep orange to reddish due to high carotene content |
| Odour | Distinct, earthy to slightly pungent |
| Melting point/freezing point | 33–39 °C |
| Boiling point or initial boiling point and range | >300 °C (decomposes before boiling) |
| Flammability | Non-flammable under normal conditions |
| Lower and upper explosion limit | Not applicable |
| Flash point | >250 °C (open cup) |
| Auto-ignition temperature | ~350 °C |
| pH (value) | Not applicable (non-aqueous) |
| Kinematic viscosity | 40–55 mm²/s at 40 °C |
| Dynamic viscosity | 35–45 mPa·s at 40 °C |
| Water solubility | Insoluble in water |
| Partition coefficient n-octanol/water (log value) | ~6.5–7.0 |
| Vapour pressure | Negligible at 20 °C |
Applications
In oleochemical and soap manufacturing, Palm oil is refined and split into fatty acids and glycerine, serving as a base for detergents, surfactants, candles, and personal care products. After refining (to produce RBD Palm Oil), it becomes suitable for edible oil formulations and blending. Palm oil also plays a significant role in biofuel production, particularly biodiesel, in both producing and importing countries due to its relatively high yield and cost-efficiency. Its economic importance is further amplified in developing regions, where it is a staple for food security and industrial feedstock.
The pricing of palm oil is influenced by several key factors, including global demand and supply dynamics, production costs, and weather conditions. Fluctuations in crude oil prices also play a role, as palm oil is often used as a biofuel. Additionally, trade policies, tariffs, and the economic situation in major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia can significantly impact palm oil prices. Understanding these factors is essential for procurement heads to make informed purchasing decisions.
Procurement heads can forecast palm oil price trends by analyzing historical price data, monitoring global supply and demand, and considering external market influences such as currency fluctuations and geopolitical events. Engaging with industry reports, subscribing to market analysis services, and leveraging insights from agricultural experts can also aid in creating accurate forecasts. This proactive approach allows for better planning and budgeting in procurement strategies.
Sustainability certifications, such as RSPO (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil), can affect palm oil pricing. Certified sustainable palm oil may command a premium price due to the growing demand for environmentally friendly products. For procurement heads, understanding the implications of these certifications is crucial, as they align with corporate sustainability goals and consumer preferences. While the initial costs may be higher, sourcing certified palm oil can enhance brand reputation and open new market opportunities.