Paracetamol (acetaminophen) Price Trend and Forecast

Impact ofUS Tariffs on Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) (2025) 

The US tariffs placed in 2025 on acetaminophen and other pharmaceutical APIs from China and India, totalling 20-25% of raw materials and intermediates, have dramatically increased production costs for enterprises who rely on these imports. This has resulted in API cost hikes of 12-20%, adding to increasing medicine pricing and reducing profit margins for generic producers who rely significantly on low-priced Asian supplies. Tariffs have also put pressure on supply chains by encouraging pharmaceutical companies to diversify their sourcing or invest in onshore or nearshoring production facilities in the United States and other lower-tariff jurisdictions, but such shifts are time-consuming and fraught with regulatory challenges, keeping supply constrained in the short term. These trade sanctions have caused price volatility and supply delays serving the US market.  

COVID-19 Pandemic Boosts Paracetamol Use (2020-2022)

During the global COVID-19 pandemic, paracetamol became a commonly recommended treatment for decreasing fever and treating pain in individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2. It was the first-line treatment due to its availability over-the-counter and relative safety. Due to extended or excessive use during the pandemic, this increase in use raised awareness of the possible risks of overdose and liver toxicity. 

Chinese PAP Export Disruptions (2018-2020)

From 2018 to 2020, China-supplying over 70% of global para-aminophenol (PAP), the critical raw material for paracetamol-implemented tightened export controls under its 2020 Export Control Law, which regulated dual-use chemicals like PAP for national security, non-proliferation and anti-terrorism purposes requiring prior licenses that caused shipment delays and reductions. Geopolitical factors, including US-China trade tensions, environmental factory shutdowns, and rising domestic paracetamol demand in China, exacerbated supply constraints, leading to up to 50% price surges and production halts for India. This triggered global paracetamol shortages, higher pharmaceutical costs and spurred diversification like India’s anti-dumping probes and backward integration with volatility persisting into 2025. 

S.-China Trade War (2018-2019)

In 2018, rising trade tensions between the United States and China started to impact pharmaceutical manufacturing and supply chains significantly. The U.S. implemented tariffs targeting Chinese chemical imports, including key pharmaceutical ingredients like para-aminophenol, essential for producing paracetamol. These tariffs increased costs and caused delays, posing challenges for manufacturers reliant on Chinese supplies. Meanwhile, the trade conflict encouraged companies to seek alternative suppliers and reconsider their supply strategies amid uncertain geopolitical conditions. This period marked the beginning of a broader shift in the global pharmaceutical industry to diversify supply chains and reduce dependency on any single country. 

Global Shortages from Manufacturing Inspections (2018)

In 2018, the FDA significantly intensified inspections of pharmaceutical manufacturing plants, especially those producing active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) overseas. Several facilities, particularly in India and China were found to have serious good manufacturing practice (GMP) violations such as contamination risks, inadequate quality controls and poor documentation. These discoveries led to import alerts and bans on shipments from these plants to the U.S. market, resulting in acute shortages of essential medicines like paracetamol.

Hospitals and healthcare providers faced challenges due to these shortages, as domestic production capacity was insufficient to compensate quickly. The events highlighted the pharmaceutical industry’s heavy reliance on foreign manufacturing and underscored the need for improved quality oversight and supply chain diversification to prevent similar disruptions in the future. The increased scrutiny also prompted manufacturers to enhance their compliance efforts and invest in supply chain resilience measures.