In Q1 2024, the US R-PET market experienced a bullish trend, with the price of Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate (R-PET) Flakes increasing by approximately 6.2%. Despite softer demand from key downstream sectors such as textiles and bottle manufacturing, the market held steady, benefiting from a well-balanced supply and demand dynamic. Manufacturers adopted a cautious stance in the spot market, where trading activity remained subdued, reflecting broader uncertainty in consumption patterns. The early part of the year saw industry players navigating these challenges, but the R-PET market remained resilient, maintaining its price stability in the face of shifting demand dynamics.
In Q2 2024, the R-PET market saw a more pronounced price increase, rising by 9.5% in North America. This surge was primarily driven by heightened demand from the packaging industry, bolstered by the seasonal uptick in consumer goods and packaging requirements during the summer months. Simultaneously, Germany’s R-PET market also experienced rising prices due to a perfect storm of supply constraints, increased production costs, and strong demand across multiple sectors. A significant contributor to the price rise was the shortage of post-consumer bales, which are essential for R-PET production. The tightening supply of bales left suppliers with little choice but to raise their rates to compensate for the shortfall.
However, by the beginning of Q3 2024, R-PET prices began to normalize after the strong upward momentum of the previous quarters. This cooling trend was largely attributed to a temporary decline in demand from sectors such as food packaging and bottling, which had been key drivers of R-PET consumption earlier in the year. As a result, prices decreased slightly throughout August, reflecting a market stabilization after the earlier price hikes. Despite the stabilization, the overall market conditions were still influenced by the ongoing balance between supply and demand.
Looking ahead to Q4 2024, the R-PET market is expected to experience a further decline in prices, driven by a combination of factors. With the arrival of colder weather in many regions, demand for R-PET, particularly from the packaging industry, is anticipated to soften. Additionally, the stabilization of freight rates, following the disruption caused by the Red Sea crisis and port congestion, will further ease cost pressures. The demand for R-PET in agricultural films is also expected to fall, except in regions where winter crop cycles or continuous agricultural activity persist. This convergence of factors suggests a potential dip in prices as the market adjusts to the seasonal slowdown.