Red Phosphorus Pricing Assessment

  • Commodity Pricing

red phosphorus Markets Covered: 

cnChina
inIndia
aeUnited Arab Emirates
usUnited States

red phosphorus Markets Covered: 

Global red phosphorus Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast​

Q1 2025 

In Q1 2025, Red Phosphorus prices in China exhibited a mixed trajectory, shaped by variable demand across domestic and international markets. January saw a moderate price increase, driven by improved consumption from local manufacturers, particularly in the electronics and chemical sectors. However, February experienced a downturn as weak buying interest from key export destinations—especially the UAE—dampened momentum. In March, prices recovered modestly, supported by active restocking from buyers in the USA ahead of anticipated seasonal demand. Despite these fluctuations, the market remained relatively balanced due to stable supply levels. The quarter closed at USD 5600/MT FOB China, reflecting cautious optimism among traders and end users. 

Q4 2024 

Red Phosphorus prices in China followed a steady downward trajectory throughout Q4 2024, primarily influenced by an oversupplied market and subdued export activity. In October and November, the lack of strong international demand—particularly from key buyers in the UAE and USA—led to excess inventory, pushing prices lower. This bearish sentiment persisted into December, further pressured by aggressive pricing from competitors and limited spot market activity. Despite stable domestic production, sluggish global procurement and unattractive margins discouraged bulk purchasing. With no significant supply disruptions or demand spikes, prices continued to slide. The quarter concluded with Red Phosphorus assessed at USD 5560/MT FOB China, marking a weak close to the year. 

Q3 2024 

Red Phosphorus prices in China experienced slight volatility in Q3 2024. July recorded a price increase supported by higher demand from the electronics sector, but August and September saw decreasing prices amid weak demand from international markets, especially in the USA. Moreover, steady supply conditions in the UAE further pressured prices. After the conclusion of 3rd quarter, Red Phosphorus prices were assessed at at USD 5835/MT FOB China. 

Q2 2024 

The second quarter showed a continuation of the fluctuating trend for Red Phosphorus in China. Red Phosphorus prices rose in April as demand from the chemical sector increased amidst increased procurement activities, but the subsequent months saw a decline due to ample supply and limited buying interest from key markets like the UAE and USA. This downward pressure was attributed to subdued industrial activity in these regions. The 2nd quarter closed with Red Phosphorus prices stood at USD 5850/MT FOB China. 

Q1 2024 

Red Phosphorus prices in China exhibited mixed trends during Q1 2024. January witnessed an increase driven by rising domestic demand and supply concerns. However, February saw a decline, primarily due to stable supply conditions and lower purchasing interest. March further experienced a dip, reflecting weak downstream demand in the electronics and chemical industries. The 1st quarter concluded with Red Phosphorus prices at USD 6010/MT FOB China. 

India red phosphorus Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

Q1 2025 

Red Phosphorus prices in India maintained a consistent upward trend in Q1 2025. January and February experienced steady price increases, supported by strong domestic demand and active restocking. March 2025 saw further gains due to tight supply and robust buying interest from export markets as the procurements gained momentum. Red Phosphorus prices in the quarter end stood at USD 6574/MT Ex – Bhiwandi. 

Q4 2024 

Q4 2024 witnessed fluctuating trends in Red Phosphorus prices in India. October faced a decline due to weak demand and ample supply. However, November 2024 saw a sharp rebound in Red Phosphorus prices, driven by renewed international demand, particularly from Southeast Asia. December continued this bullish momentum amid year-end stockpiling. The quarter closed with Red Phosphorus prices stood at USD 6683/MT FOB Nhava Sheva. 

Q3 2024 

In Q3 2024, Red Phosphorus prices in India maintained a strong upward trajectory. July and August witnessed heightened demand, particularly from the electronics sector, driven by seasonal manufacturing cycles and increased production of flame-retardant materials. This surge in consumption kept prices buoyant. In September, the bullish momentum continued as buyers engaged in strategic restocking ahead of anticipated year-end demand. Although supply from the Nhava Sheva port remained stable, it was effectively absorbed by the high offtake, preventing downward pressure. Market sentiment remained optimistic, and consistent buying interest supported price gains. The quarter concluded at USD 6514/MT Ex-Bhiwandi, signalling continued strength. 

Q2 2024 

Red Phosphorus prices in India experienced notable volatility during Q2 2024. April saw an uptick in prices, supported by improved procurement from the chemical and industrial sectors. However, in May, the market corrected as sufficient inventory levels and lukewarm buying interest led to a decline. June brought a turnaround as supply tightened due to logistical issues and fewer overseas shipments, which reignited upward price momentum. The interplay of inconsistent demand and fluctuating availability created uncertainty, prompting cautious buying strategies across end-user industries. The quarter ultimately closed with a modest gain, reaching USD 6522/MT FOB Nhava Sheva, reflecting balanced but reactive market behaviour. 

Q1 2024 

In Q1 2024, Red Phosphorus prices in India reflected a mixed trend influenced by fluctuating demand and stable supply conditions. January began on a positive note with strong domestic demand, especially from the chemical and pyrotechnics sectors, driving prices upward. However, February and March saw a reversal, with international demand weakening due to lower import interest and competitive global offers. This external pressure, combined with steady supply from key ports like Nhava Sheva, resulted in oversupply concerns that weighed down prices. Overall, despite the initial surge, the quarter ended on a softer note with prices closing at USD 6354/MT Ex-Bhiwandi. 

red phosphorus Parameters Covered: 

  • Elemental Phosphorus 
  • India
  • China
  • Safety Matches
  • Semiconductors
  • Flame Retardants
  • Hydrogenation Catalysts
  • Pyrotechnics
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • United States
  • United Arab Emirates

red phosphorus Parameters Covered: 

  • Elemental Phosphorus 
  • India
  • China
  • Safety Matches
  • Semiconductors
  • Flame Retardants
  • Hydrogenation Catalysts
  • Pyrotechnics
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • United States
  • United Arab Emirates

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global red phosphorus price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the red phosphorus market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence red phosphorus prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely red phosphorus market data.

Track PriceWatch's red phosphorus price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Red Phosphorus prices

  • Global Supply Chain Disruptions (2020-Present): The COVID-19 pandemic led to factory shutdowns and transportation delays, causing supply shortages and price volatility in the red phosphorus market. 
  • Environmental Regulations (2015-2023): Stricter regulations on phosphorus production in various countries have impacted supply, leading to increased production costs and price hikes. 
  • Geopolitical Tensions (2018-2020): Trade tensions between major economies affected the flow of raw materials and pricing dynamics, creating instability in the red phosphorus market. 

 

These events highlight the red phosphorus market’s sensitivity to various global factors, emphasizing the need for ongoing monitoring of supply and demand trends. 

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a variety of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures our assessments reflect the most current market conditions. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users across major red phosphorus production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire red phosphorus supply chain, from raw material availability (e.g., phosphate rock, sulfur) to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics. 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, that can significantly impact red phosphorus prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing. 
  • Environmental Regulations: We assess the impact of environmental regulations on red phosphorus production, as changes in laws can affect supply levels and production costs. Compliance challenges and adjustments are factored into our price forecasts. 
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We analyze the effects of natural disasters, such as floods or earthquakes, on red phosphorus production facilities, particularly in regions prone to such events. These disruptions are considered in our supply outlooks and pricing models. 
  • Market Demand Fluctuations: We evaluate changes in demand from key sectors, such as flame retardants and electronics, to understand their impact on pricing and supply dynamics. 

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Red phosphorus production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately. 
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming red phosphorus production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization. 

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including agriculture and electronics. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments. 
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global red phosphorus pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations. 

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast red phosphorus prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power. 
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes. 

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations. 
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice. 

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable red phosphorus pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions. 

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

30.97

CAS No

7723-14-0

HS Code

Molecular Formula

P
red phosphorus

Red phosphorus is a non-toxic, amorphous allotrope of phosphorus, commonly produced by heating white phosphorus in the absence of air. It is used in safety matches, flame retardants, and as a chemical reagent due to its stability and reactivity.

Packaging Type

200 Kg Drum

Grades Covered

98%

Incoterms Used

FOB Shanghai, FOB Nhava Sheva , Ex – Bhiwandi, CIF Jebel Ali (India), CIF Houston (India)

Synonym

Amorphous phosphorus

PriceWatch Quotation Terms:

25- 28 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property  Specification 
Appearance  Reddish powder or granules 
Color  Dark red 
Odor  Odorless 
Purity (%)  ≥99.0 
Moisture Content (%)  ≤0.1 
Boiling Point (°C)  Sublimes 
Melting Point (°C)  Not applicable (sublimation) 
Density at 20 °C  2.2 g/cm³ 
Solubility  Insoluble in water 
Flash Point (°C)  >300 (in an inert atmosphere) 
Auto-ignition Temperature (°C)  >300 

Applications

Red phosphorus is a versatile chemical widely used in various industries due to its non-toxicity, stability, and effectiveness. Its most common applications include safety matches, where it acts as a friction agent, and flame retardants, enhancing fire resistance in various materials. In construction, red phosphorus is used in some insulation materials to improve fire safety. The automotive industry employs red phosphorus in coatings and additives for increased performance and safety. Additionally, red phosphorus is utilized in the production of certain consumer goods, such as electronics and household items, for its reactivity and stability. 

Red Phosphorus price provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for red phosphorus. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

The pricing of Red Phosphorus is influenced by several factors, including global supply and demand dynamics, the availability and cost of raw materials (primarily white phosphorus), and production costs. Regulatory restrictions on the use and transportation of Red Phosphorus due to its hazardous nature can also impact prices. Additionally, fluctuations in energy prices, geopolitical events, and the economic conditions of major producing countries, such as China and the United States, play a critical role in shaping Red Phosphorus prices. Understanding these factors is essential for procurement heads to make informed purchasing decisions.

Procurement heads can forecast Red Phosphorus price trends by analyzing historical price data, monitoring global supply and demand shifts, and keeping track of changes in regulatory policies and raw material availability. Regularly consulting industry reports, engaging with market analysis services, and staying informed about geopolitical events affecting major producers can also aid in accurate price forecasting. This proactive approach helps in better planning, budgeting, and decision-making in procurement strategies.

Sustainability certifications and environmental regulations can significantly impact Red Phosphorus pricing. As stricter environmental policies are enforced, manufacturers may face higher production costs to comply with sustainability standards, leading to price increases. Moreover, a growing demand for eco-friendly and responsibly produced chemicals may result in premium pricing for Red Phosphorus that meets sustainability criteria. For procurement heads, understanding these implications is crucial as it aligns with corporate sustainability goals and consumer preferences. While the initial costs may be higher, sourcing sustainably produced Red Phosphorus can enhance a company’s reputation and open up new business opportunities.

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