vinyl chloride monomer Pricing Assessment

Markets Covered:

Qatar

United States

Indonesia

Germany

Belgium

Mexico

India

Vinyl Chloride Monomer Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In Q1 2024, prices of Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) in major exporting countries like Qatar, Indonesia, USA and Germany showed fluctuations around -9.2%, -9.9%, -13.4% and -4.5%, respectively as compared to Q4 2023’s prices of VCM. This bullish price trend was also observed in major importing countries, including India, Mexico and Belgium. This is due to a combination of reduced global demand and increased production capacity. Following the post-pandemic recovery phase, demand from key sectors such as construction and automotive stabilized, leading to an oversupply in the market. Additionally, several new VCM production facilities came online, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, contributing to heightened competition among producers. This surplus, coupled with softer demand, drove prices down as suppliers sought to maintain market share in a more challenging economic environment.

In Q2 2024, prices of VCM (Vinyl Chloride Monomer) in major exporting countries in APAC, Europe and North America region showed continuous declined around 4-5% as compared to Q1 2024 due to a combination of persistent oversupply and weakening demand in key markets. The ramp-up of new production facilities that came online in the previous quarters increased global VCM capacity, while demand from the construction and automotive sectors remained subdued as economic uncertainties and rising interest rates dampened investment. Additionally, inventory levels among manufacturers remained high, prompting sellers to lower prices to stimulate sales and clear excess stock. This combination of factors resulted in sustained downward pressure on VCM prices across these regions.

In Q3 2024, prices of Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) in major exporting countries in APAC, Europe and North America region show increasing trend as compared to Q2 2024, primarily due to a rebound in demand as economic conditions began to stabilize. Key sectors, including construction and automotive, experienced renewed activity driven by infrastructure investments and improved consumer confidence, leading to higher VCM consumption. Additionally, several production facilities underwent maintenance and unplanned outages, reducing overall supply in the market. This combination of rising demand and tighter supply dynamics contributed to the upward pressure on VCM prices during the quarter. This bullish price trend was also observed in major importing countries, including India, Mexico and Belgium.

In Q4 2024, the price forecast for Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) across APAC, Europe, and North America is expected to show a moderate increase. In APAC, strong demand from the construction and automotive sectors, along with potential supply constraints from maintenance schedules, may drive prices up. In Europe, an anticipated recovery in industrial activity and ongoing supply chain adjustments could lead to higher prices as well. Meanwhile, in North America, steady demand coupled with limited production disruptions might result in stable to slightly increasing prices. Overall, the trend is expected to reflect a balance between recovering demand and supply dynamics, leading to a cautiously optimistic price outlook for Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) in Q4 2024.

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is your trusted resource for tracking global vinyl chloride monomer price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the vinyl chloride monomer market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

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Track 's vinyl chloride monomer price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in vinyl chloride monomer prices

Oil Price Crash (2015-2016): The sharp decline in oil prices affected the cost of feedstocks used in VCM production, leading to fluctuating prices as producers adjusted to the new economic landscape.

Hurricane Harvey (2017): This major hurricane impacted numerous petrochemical facilities in the Gulf Coast region of the USA, causing temporary shutdowns and leading to significant price spikes in VCM due to supply disruptions.

COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): The global pandemic led to widespread lockdowns, disrupting supply chains and reducing demand from industries like construction and automotive. This resulted in price volatility for VCM, with a notable decrease in early 2020 followed by a recovery as demand rebounded.

Inflation and Economic Instability (2023): Rising inflation rates and economic instability in various regions have impacted production costs and consumer demand, leading to fluctuations in VCM prices as markets reacted to changing economic conditions.

These events underscore the VCM market’s vulnerability to global disruptions and highlight the need for continuous monitoring of supply-demand dynamics.

Methodology and Specifications

vinyl chloride monomer Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data: aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.

On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major VCM production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.

Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire VCM supply chain, from raw material availability (e.g., Ethylene and chlorine) to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact VCM prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.

Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as, hurricanes or winter storms on VCM production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the U.S. Gulf Coast. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.

Economic Shifts: evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive & Construction), to predict shifts in VCM demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global VCM production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.

Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming VCM production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: provides in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.

Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global VCM pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast VCM prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.

Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.

Ongoing Support: offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable VCM pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

62.498 g/mol

CAS No

75-01-4

HS Code

29032100

Molecular Formula

C2H3Cl

vinyl chloride monomer

Product Description: Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM, C₂H₃Cl) is a key chemical used in the production of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), widely used in construction, automotive, and packaging industries. It is primarily produced from Ethylene, sourced from petroleum or natural gas, through the chlorination process. VCM is valued for its ability to create durable, versatile materials with high chemical resistance.

Packaging Type

Plastic Bags

Grades Covered

Industrial Grade (≥99.5%)

Incoterms Used

FOB Mesaieed (Qatar), FOB Los Angeles (USA), FOB Tanjung Priok (Indonesia), FOB Hamburg (Germany), FD Antwerp (Belgium), CIF Manzanillo (USA), CIF JNPT (India)

Synonym

Vinyl Chloride, Chloroethene, Chloroethylene

Quotation Terms:

25-28 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Properties	Specifications
Appearance	Clear and free of suspended matters
VCM (wt%)	Industrial Grade (≥99.5%)
1,3-Butadiene (wt ppm)	Max. 10
Color	Colorless
Water content (wt ppm)	Max. 100
Acidity as HCl (wt ppm)	Max. 1
Hydroquinone	Min./Max. 2/5

Applications

Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) is a colorless gas that is primarily used to produce polyvinyl chloride (PVC), one of the most widely used plastics globally. PVC is known for its versatility and durability, making it ideal for a variety of applications, including construction materials (like pipes and window frames), automotive components, electrical insulation, and medical devices. Additionally, VCM is used in the production of coatings and adhesives. Its adaptability in different formulations allows for a wide range of physical properties, catering to specific needs across industries, thus playing a critical role in everyday products and infrastructure.

Disclaimer

Vinyl Chloride Monomer price provided by is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for vinyl chloride monomer. disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the key drivers behind vinyl chloride monomer price fluctuations? +

The pricing of vinyl chloride monomer is influenced by several key drivers, including global demand for PVC, feedstock costs (such as ethylene and chlorine), production capacity, and geopolitical factors that affect supply chains. Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices can indirectly impact VCM prices, as they are closely linked to the costs of raw materials used in its production.

How do regulatory changes affect the pricing of vinyl chloride monomer? +

Regulatory changes, such as environmental regulations and safety standards, can significantly impact the pricing of vinyl chloride monomer. Compliance with stricter regulations may lead to increased production costs for manufacturers, which can subsequently result in higher VCM prices. Procurement heads should monitor legislative developments to anticipate potential cost increases and adjust their sourcing strategies accordingly.

What role does global economic stability play in VCM pricing? +

Global economic stability plays a crucial role in determining the demand for vinyl chloride monomer. Economic growth typically leads to increased construction and manufacturing activities, driving up the demand for PVC products and, consequently, VCM. Conversely, economic downturns can result in reduced demand, leading to price declines. Procurement professionals should consider macroeconomic indicators when planning their purchasing strategies.

How can procurement heads mitigate risks associated with VCM price volatility? +

To mitigate risks associated with vinyl chloride monomer price volatility, procurement heads can adopt several strategies, such as establishing long-term contracts with suppliers, diversifying their supplier base, and implementing hedging strategies to lock in prices. Additionally, staying informed about market trends and maintaining open communication with suppliers can help in negotiating better terms and navigating price fluctuations effectively.