Yellow Phosphorus Pricing Assessment

  • Commodity Pricing

yellow phosphorus Markets Covered: 

vnVietnam
inIndia
jpJapan
kzKazakhstan
krKorea
aeUnited Arab Emirates

yellow phosphorus Markets Covered: 

Global yellow phosphorus Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast​

Yellow Phosphorus (P4) prices followed a fluctuating trajectory throughout Q1 2025. The market saw firm gains in January and February, fuelled by strong demand from agrochemical and electronics sectors—particularly in preparation for seasonal agricultural activity and stable production in semiconductor-related applications. However, March witnessed a correction due to improved supply-side conditions and a decline in feedstock Phosphate Rock costs, which eased pressure on production margins. Both Vietnam and Kazakhstan origins mirrored this pattern, with steady price increases early in the quarter, followed by stabilization as procurement activity normalized. The quarter concluded with Yellow Phosphorus prices in Vietnam stood of USD 4022/MT. 

As we enter Q4 2024, the Yellow Phosphorus market is experiencing growth, with prices reported at USD 3,690/MT, an increase of 3.58% from October. This upward movement can be attributed to a combination of seasonal demand spikes, especially in agriculture as planting seasons approach. Additionally, increased demand from industries like electronics and explosives has also contributed to tightening supply. As these factors align, the market appears to be stabilizing, suggesting a more favorable outlook heading into the new year. 

By early Q3 2024, prices in Vietnam reported a slight decrease to USD 3,562/MT, down 0.76%. On a global scale, this bearish trend was influenced by supply levels and a general slowdown in industrial activities. Many producers ramped up their output, resulting in an oversupply situation that outstripped demand, particularly in sectors like electronics and agriculture. While there were pockets of demand, particularly in Asia, there were not enough to absorb the excess supply, keeping prices under pressure. 

Moving into Q2 2024, the situation in Vietnam saw Yellow Phosphorus prices drop further to USD 3,590/MT, marking a 2.14% decline from Q1. Several factors played a role in this ongoing decrease. The reduction in agricultural activity during the off-peak season led to lower demand for fertilizers, while rising production rates and competitive pricing from other regions further exacerbated the market’s challenges. Furthermore, ongoing supply chain issues, including transportation delays and increasing freight costs, hindered the flow of Yellow Phosphorus to key markets. 

In Q1 2024, the global Yellow Phosphorus market showed a mixed trend influenced by various factors. In Vietnam, Yellow Phosphorus prices were reported at USD 3,668/MT, reflecting a decrease of 5.05% from the previous quarter. This decline can be attributed to a combination of abundant supply and shifting demand patterns. Key sectors such as agriculture and electronics continued to drive demand, but overall consumption did not keep pace with production, leading to downward pressure on prices. Additionally, economic fluctuations and a cautious market sentiment contributed to this trend across Southeast Asia. 

India yellow phosphorus Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

Yellow Phosphorus (P4) >99% prices in India saw a fluctuating but overall bullish pattern in Q1 2025. While January and February registered strong gains amid tight spot availability and improved demand from downstream pesticide and surfactant sectors, March prices dipped slightly as buying slowed down after aggressive restocking. The market responded to increased offers from Vietnam under CIF Nhava Sheva terms, with limited competition from other origins. Overall sentiment remained optimistic with cautious forward buying. The quarter closed with Yellow Phosphorus prices stood at USD 4196/MT CIF Nhava Sheva. 

Q4 2024 recorded a largely bullish tone in the Yellow Phosphorus (P4) >99% market, supported by year-end procurement, improved demand from the fertilizer and other sectors, and limited supply from Kazakhstan. October and November witnessed consistent upward movement, but a price dip in December stemmed from reduced buying interest amid financial year-end inventory rationalization. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan-origin product under CIF Nhava Sheva terms continued to dominate, albeit with longer lead times. The quarter closed with Yellow Phosphorus prices softening slightly to USD 3608/MT CIF Nhava Sheva from Kazakhstan. 

Yellow Phosphorus (P4) >99% prices rallied in Q3 2024 as industrial activity rebounded following the monsoon lull. Increased demand from agricultural chemical manufacturers ahead of the sowing season supported price gains, especially for Vietnamese-origin cargoes. Yellow Phosphorus prices rose in both July and August, driven by tight availability and active procurement by Indian buyers. However, September saw a minor correction due to importers adjusting to prior stockpiling. Despite this, overall momentum remained firm. The quarter ended with prices at USD 3743/MT CIF Nhava Sheva from Vietnam. 

The second quarter of 2024 saw a mixed trend in Yellow Phosphorus (P4) >99% pricing, with modest gains in May offsetting losses in April and June. The increase in May was largely attributed to restocking activity from Indian pesticide and flame-retardant manufacturers, while persistent bearishness in June followed weak global cues and softening Chinese domestic demand. Kazakhstan-origin cargoes under CIF Nhava Sheva terms played a key role, with supply remaining steady but buyers negotiating aggressively amid subdued downstream consumption. The quarter closed at USD 3495/MT CIF Nhava Sheva (Kazakhstan). 

Yellow Phosphorus (P4) >99% prices in India faced a downward trajectory throughout Q1 2024 as bearish sentiment dominated the market. Demand from downstream industries such as flame retardants and agrochemicals remained sluggish, particularly from sectors like construction and agriculture that were slow to recover post-holiday. The continued availability of cheaper imports, especially from Vietnam under CIF Nhava Sheva terms, contributed to buyer hesitation and lower transaction levels. Market participants also held back from large-volume purchases anticipating further price corrections. The quarter concluded with prices at USD 3700/MT CIF Nhava Sheva from Vietnam. 

yellow phosphorus Parameters Covered: 

  • Phosphate Rock 
  • Vietnam
  • Kazakhstan
  • Phosphoric Acid
  • Phosphorus Trichloride (PCl₃)
  • Phosphorus Pentachloride (PCl₅)
  • Pesticides & Herbicides
  • Flame Retardants
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Water Treatment Chemicals
  • Food Additives
  • India
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • United Arab Emirates

yellow phosphorus Parameters Covered: 

  • Phosphate Rock 
  • Vietnam
  • Kazakhstan
  • Phosphoric Acid
  • Phosphorus Trichloride (PCl₃)
  • Phosphorus Pentachloride (PCl₅)
  • Pesticides & Herbicides
  • Flame Retardants
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Water Treatment Chemicals
  • Food Additives
  • India
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • United Arab Emirates

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global yellow phosphorus price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the yellow phosphorus market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence yellow phosphorus prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely yellow phosphorus market data.

Track PriceWatch's yellow phosphorus price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Yellow Phosphorus prices

  • Geopolitical Tensions (2022-Present): Ongoing conflicts and trade issues have created uncertainty in supply chains, impacting availability and causing price spikes. 
  • Increased Agricultural Demand (2021-Present): Growing demand for fertilizers, particularly in developing countries, has driven up the need for Yellow Phosphorus, contributing to rising prices. 
  • Global Supply Chain Disruptions (2021): Shipping delays and logistical challenges caused by the pandemic and other global events led to supply shortages and increased prices. 
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): The pandemic initially disrupted supply chains and caused demand fluctuations in various industries, resulting in price volatility as markets adjusted. 

 

These events illustrate the Yellow Phosphorus market’s sensitivity to global changes and emphasize the importance of monitoring supply and demand trends. 

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major Yellow Phosphorus production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire Yellow Phosphorus supply chain, from raw material availability (e.g., phosphate rock, sulfuric acid) to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics. 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact Yellow Phosphorus prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing. 
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as floods or droughts, on Yellow Phosphorus production facilities, particularly in key regions. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks. 
  • Regulatory Changes: We evaluate changes in environmental regulations and sustainability initiatives that may affect production practices and costs, influencing overall market dynamics.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Yellow Phosphorus production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to accurately assess current supply availability. 
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming Yellow Phosphorus production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization. 

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including agriculture (fertilizers), food processing, and industrial applications. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments. 
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global Yellow Phosphorus pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in agricultural practices, trade policies, and environmental regulations. 

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast Yellow Phosphorus prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power. 
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes. 

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations. 
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice. 

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Yellow Phosphorus pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions. 

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

123.88

CAS No

7723-14-0

HS Code

28047030

Molecular Formula

P4

yellow phosphorus

Yellow Phosphorus is a reactive, non-metallic element that is essential in various industrial applications. It is primarily used in the production of fertilizers, pesticides, and flame retardants due to its chemical properties and effectiveness. Yellow Phosphorus is valued for its role in agriculture and manufacturing, making it a crucial component in the global supply chain.

Packaging Type

Drum

Grades Covered

99.9%

Incoterms Used

FOB Aktau, FOB Haiphong, CIF Busan (Vietnam), CIF Sharjah (Vietnam), CIF Tokyo (Vietnam), CIF Nhava Sheva (Kazakhstan, Vietnam).

Synonym

PriceWatch Quotation Terms:

25-30 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property  Specification  
APPEARANCE  white to straw yellow waxy solid 
ASSAY  99.0% min 
INSOLUBLES IN DILUTE NITRIC ACID  0.1% max 
ACIDITY (H3PO4)  0.2% max 
SULFUR  0.1% max 
Purity(P4)    99.9% min. 
As        150-180 ppm max. 
S    50 ppm max. 

Applications

Yellow Phosphorus (P₄) is a reactive element widely used in various industries due to its effectiveness, versatility, and importance in chemical processes. Its most common applications include fertilizers, where it serves as a critical nutrient for plant growth. In the production of pesticides, Yellow Phosphorus is utilized for its ability to enhance agricultural yields. The chemical industry also uses Yellow Phosphorus as a precursor for manufacturing flame retardants and other phosphorus compounds. Additionally, Yellow Phosphorus is involved in various industrial applications, including the production of semiconductors and specialty chemicals. 

Yellow Phosphorus price provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for yellow phosphorus. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Yellow Phosphorus prices are influenced by various factors, including the availability of raw materials, production costs, and market demand. Key aspects include fluctuations in supply from major producing countries, changes in production capacity, transportation costs, and environmental regulations. Additionally, geopolitical events and economic conditions can create volatility in pricing, making it essential for procurement heads to stay informed about these dynamics.

Seasonal demand plays a significant role in determining Yellow Phosphorus prices, particularly in agriculture and electronics. During planting seasons, demand for fertilizers typically increases, which can drive up prices. Conversely, during off-peak periods, demand may decrease, leading to price reductions. Procurement professionals should anticipate these seasonal trends to optimize their purchasing strategies and budget allocations effectively.

Yes, Yellow Phosphorus prices can vary significantly across regions due to differences in production capacities, local demand, and transportation costs. For instance, Southeast Asia may offer competitive pricing due to abundant production, while prices in North America and Europe might be higher. Procurement teams should analyze regional price trends and consider sourcing from cost-effective markets to enhance their procurement strategies and reduce expenses.

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