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Alumina Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 12352311
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⟳ Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing

alumina Price Trends by Country

cnChina
auAustralia
brBrazil
inIndia
noNorway

Global alumina Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

Price-Watch’s most active coverage of Alumina price assessment:

  • Purity: 98.5%min. FOB Shanghai, China
  • Purity: 98.5%min. FOB Brisbane, Australia
  • Metallurgical Grade Brazil FOB Santos, Brazil
  • Calcined Alumina (Metallurgical Grade) EX Bhubaneswar, India
  • Metallurgical Grade CIF Oslo (Brazil), Norway

Alumina Price Trend Q3 2025 

In Q3 2025, the global alumina market experienced a mixed but modest upward trend of 2–3% in prices compared to the previous quarter, driven by a combination of supply-side developments and regional demand variations. New supply additions from Indonesia and India continued to pressure the market, while localized production curtailments, especially in China and Australia, helped balance some of the oversupply.

At the same time, bauxite supply risks, particularly from Guinea, and logistical disruptions added short-term volatility. Demand growth remained steady but subdued, closely tied to aluminium production trends, which faced regional constraints. Overall, the market reflected a structurally loose supply environment, with prices largely fluctuating near cost floors, and any gains remaining fragile and regionalized rather than broad-based.

China

Alumina Export prices FOB Shanghai, Grade- Purity: 98.5%min.

According to PriceWatch, in Q3 2025, the alumina price trend in China experienced a slight decline resulting in a 0.83% decrease compared to Q2 2025. Market sentiment was cautiously subdued as supply growth from new production capacities outpaced downstream demand from the aluminium smelting sector, which remained stable but constrained by capacity limits and muted export demand.

Raw material costs including bauxite and caustic soda were relatively stable, providing limited upward pressure on prices. However, alumina prices rebounded modestly in September 2025 with a 0.64% increase, supported by tightening supply conditions as some high-cost producers reduced output and inventories began to normalize.

Export activity offered minimal support during ongoing global demand uncertainty. Overall, the alumina market in China during Q3 2025 reflected a slight oversupply environment with prices trending downward initially but showing signs of stabilization heading into the final quarter of the year.

Australia

Alumina Export prices FOB Brisbane, Grade- Purity: 98.5%min.

In Q3 2025, the alumina price trend in Australia experienced a slight price increase of 3.68% compared to Q2, reflecting a cautiously positive sentiment amid tightening supply and steady demand growth. The uptick was driven by a combination of constrained bauxite availability impacting refining operations and elevated raw material costs, particularly energy and transportation expenses, which pressured producers to adjust output levels strategically.

Export activity stayed robust, supported by sustained demand from key Asian markets, though logistical challenges intermittently affected shipment volumes. Notably, alumina prices rebounded modestly in September 2025 with a 0.64% decrease, attributed to short-term inventory corrections and mild softening in downstream alumina consumption.

As a whole, the market outlook heading into Q4 2025 suggests continued price resilience, underpinned by supply-side constraints and stable demand, although potential volatility remains as producers navigate cost pressures and global economic uncertainties.

Alumina Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

According to the PriceWatch, In Q2 2025, alumina prices experienced significant declines in both Australia and China due to a combination of supply rebounds, global market shifts, and policy changes. In Australia, the alumina price dropped sharply to $355 per metric ton FOB Brisbane, marking a 28.72% decrease from the previous quarter.

This steep fall primarily reflects a rebound in supply following major output curtailments in 2024, including the closure of Alcoa Kwinana refinery and a force majeure event at Rio Tinto Queensland operations. Additionally, the relaxation of antidumping duties in key export markets has weakened demand for higher cost Australian alumina.

Meanwhile, China alumina price fell to $451 per metric ton FOB Shanghai, down 24.79% quarter on quarter. The decline is largely attributed to oversupply from significant capacity expansions, with more than 13 million tons of new refining capacity coming online in China, along with large-scale projects in Indonesia and India flooding the global market.

In Q1 2025, alumina prices dropped considerably by $599 per metric ton FOB Shanghai, or a 20.66% decline. The decline followed a prolonged period of sustained price increases in 2024 and was largely caused by relaxing supply bottlenecks and an easing in downstream demand. Favorable weather patterns in key producing countries like Australia and Guinea enabled recovery in mining and refining production, leading to improved inventories.

Simultaneously, demand eased marginally as global aluminum producers reduced output to cope with lofty input costs and higher recycling levels. Market correction also mirrored speculation about unwinding and better shipping availability, which relieved earlier logistical strains.

Alumina Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

During Q4 2024, alumina prices rose by $755 per metric ton FOB Shanghai, a substantial 23.77% increase, as a result of tight supply and resilient demand from the aluminum sector. Disruptions at key refining facilities in Australia, combined with delayed shipments due to port congestion and adverse weather conditions, restricted global supply.

Concurrently, China’s aluminum production surged to meet seasonal and strategic stockpiling targets, driving aggressive procurement of alumina. Market participants also noted speculative buying amid geopolitical uncertainty, further supporting the price rally through the quarter.

In Q3 2024, alumina prices saw a strong increase of $610 per metric ton FOB Shanghai, marking a 24.74% rise. The upward trend was largely influenced by persistent bottlenecks in refining and a rebound in global industrial demand. Labor unrest and maintenance shutdowns in key alumina-producing regions strained supply, while high energy prices in Europe and Asia increased production costs, contributing to cost-push inflation. Demand from the electric vehicle, construction, and packaging industries remained strong, especially in China and India, reinforcing bullish sentiment across the alumina value chain.

In Q2 2024, alumina prices recorded a moderate increase of $489 per metric ton FOB Shanghai, representing a 6.40% gain. Seasonal factors such as monsoon-related disruptions in Guinea and ongoing maintenance in Australian refineries constrained supply. Meanwhile, steady demand from aluminum smelters, particularly in Asia, kept the market tight.

Rising energy costs and freight charges also contributed to price increases, although the pace of growth was more measured compared to subsequent quarters. The market remained alert to emerging supply risks and inflationary input pressures.

Alumina prices in Q1 2024 rose by $460 per metric ton FOB Shanghai, a 4.85% increase, amid continued strong demand from aluminum manufacturers. The upward movement was supported by production hiccups in key regions such as India and Australia due to regulatory changes and maintenance shutdowns. Additionally, steady economic recovery in major consuming countries spurred construction and infrastructure-related demand. While supply remained relatively stable, rising logistical and energy costs pushed prices higher, setting a bullish tone for the rest of the year.

Technical Specifications of Alumina Price Trends

Product Description

Alumina (aluminum oxide, Al₂O₃) is a white powder produced from bauxite ore, primarily used as the key raw material in aluminum production. It is valued for its high purity, hardness, and thermal stability, making it essential in industries like metallurgy, ceramics, abrasives, and refractories.

Identifiers and Classification:

  • HS Code: 281820


Alumina Grades Specific Price Assessment:

  • Purity: 98.5%min.


Alumina Global Trade and Shipment Terms

  • Quotation Terms (Product & Country Specific): 25000-35000MT
  • Packaging Type (Product & Country Specific): Bulk


Incoterms Reference in Alumina Reporting

Shipping Term  Location  Definition 
FOB Shanghai   China  Alumina Export price from China 
FOB Brisbane   Australia  Alumina Export price from Australia 

*Quotation Terms refers to the quantity range specified for the Alumina being quoted or offered in a commercial transaction.

**Packaging Type refers to standard packaging size commonly used for Alumina packing, ease of handling, transportation, and storage in industrial and commercial applications.


Key Alumina Manufacturers

Manufacturer 
Alcoa 
China Hongqiao Group 
Nalco 

Alumina Industrial Applications

Alumina Market Share End use

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Alumina prices

  • Global Supply Chain Disruption (2022): Geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine and associated energy supply constraints, caused disruptions in the alumina supply chain. These challenges led to volatility in production costs and transportation, contributing to unstable alumina pricing worldwide.
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2019–2020): The pandemic disrupted industrial activity and supply chains globally. Reduced operations in smelters and manufacturing sectors decreased the demand for alumina, leading to significant price drops and inventory build-up in some regions.
  • Global Economic Downturn (2019–2020): The slowdown in global economic activity, especially in aluminum-intensive sectors such as construction and automotive, led to reduced aluminum production. This caused a decline in demand for alumina, resulting in lower prices.

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global alumina price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the alumina market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence alumina prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely alumina market data.

Track PriceWatch's alumina price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major Alumina production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire alumina supply chain, from raw material availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts, sanctions, or trade disputes, which can significantly impact alumina prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to refining operations, energy supply, and raw material logistics, as well as their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters—such as cyclones, droughts, or extreme temperatures—on alumina refineries, especially in high-risk regions. These events are incorporated into our price forecasts and supply risk assessments.
  • Economic Shifts: PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic indicators, including global GDP growth, inflation trends, and sector-specific demand (particularly in aluminum smelting, construction, and transportation) to anticipate shifts in alumina demand and resulting price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a detailed global database of alumina refining facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This enables us to accurately assess real-time supply availability and potential disruptions.
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes projections of upcoming alumina production capacities, factoring in refinery expansions, new project developments, and efficiency improvements. These insights help forecast future supply dynamics and price trajectories.

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides in-depth evaluations of alumina demand across critical sectors, particularly primary aluminum production. We analyze year-over-year consumption trends and forecast future demand based on economic conditions and industrial activity.
  • Regional Demand Dynamics: Our methodology incorporates regional demand variations, such as increasing consumption in Asia-Pacific or policy-driven shifts in Europe and North America. We analyze how regional trends influence global pricing and trade flows.

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch employs advanced econometric and statistical models to forecast alumina prices, integrating real-time market data, historical pricing, and predictive economic indicators. Our models are regularly updated to reflect market changes and improve forecasting accuracy.
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based modeling to assess the impact of different market developments. This includes best-case, worst-case, and baseline scenarios, helping clients strategize effectively under various potential conditions.

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Clients receive in-depth reports featuring current alumina price assessments, forward-looking price forecasts, and detailed analysis of key market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable and strategically informative.
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch delivers regular updates and tailored support to ensure clients are equipped with the latest insights. Our experts are available for one-on-one consultations, helping interpret market changes and optimize procurement or investment decisions.

Alumina Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for alumina. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Alumina prices are influenced by a range of interrelated factors:

Global Demand-Supply Dynamics:
Demand from aluminum smelters and supply from refining operations globally are primary drivers of alumina pricing.

Alumina Availability and Costs:
As the primary feedstock for alumina, fluctuations in alumina prices and availability directly impact alumina production costs and pricing.

Refining and Energy Costs:
Alumina refining is energy intensive. Electricity, caustic soda, and fuel costs play a significant role in determining overall alumina pricing.

LME and Regional Aluminum Trends:
Though alumina itself is not traded on the LME, aluminum prices on exchanges like the LME and SHFE influence demand and pricing strategies for alumina.

Geopolitical Risks and Trade Policies:
Export restrictions, tariffs, and political instability in key producing countries (e.g., Australia, China) can lead to supply disruptions and price volatility.

Macroeconomic Trends:
Global GDP growth, inflation, and industrial output levels affect end-use demand and influence both short-term and long-term alumina pricing.

Alumina is refined from bauxite ore, and its pricing is closely tied to:

Bauxite mining costs

Energy inputs (electricity, gas)

Chemical inputs like caustic soda

Rising feedstock and refining costs directly increase the cost of alumina production. For example, a surge in energy or caustic soda prices can significantly elevate alumina market prices.

As the intermediate product between bauxite and aluminum, alumina is a critical input in aluminum manufacturing. Rising prices can lead to:

Higher aluminum production costs

Increased prices of aluminum-based products in sectors like automotive, construction, packaging, and electronics

Broader cost pressures in industrial supply chains, contributing to inflation in various sectors of the economy

PriceWatch offers a full suite of tools and insights to help you track and analyze alumina pricing:

Real-time alumina pricing and market trends

Refinery and production capacity updates

Market outlook and forward-looking price forecasts

Risk insights based on global energy markets, trade flows, and geopolitical developments

Weekly price assessments and custom procurement intelligence tools

Some of the key benefits of using PriceWatch include: 

 Real-time Data: Access to up-to-date market intelligence and data on commodity supply chains. 

Expert Analysis: Insights from industry experts to interpret market trends and identify potential risks. 

Risk Assessment: Tools to assess supply chain vulnerabilities and develop mitigation strategies. 

Benchmarking: Comparisons of commodity prices and sourcing practices to optimize procurement decisions.

Access Real-Time Alumina Price Trends