India Maps Path to 604 million Tonnes of Steel Capacity by 2047 

India’s steel industry is entering a new phase of expansion. The draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047 envisages crude steelmaking capacity reaching 604 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by 2047 and finished steel consumption rising to 505 million tonnes. Achieving this ambition will require more than new steel plants.  

India must also secure reliable supplies of iron ore, coking coal, scrap, alloys and energy, supported by efficient logistics, competitive production costs and lower emissions. 

The draft policy remains open for stakeholder feedback until October 30, 2026. Its proposed targets and raw-material requirements should therefore be treated as draft projections rather than approved commitments.  

From the 2017 Policy to Vision 2047

The National Steel Policy 2017 targeted 300 MTPA of crude steel capacity, 255 million tonnes of crude steel production and 230 million tonnes of finished steel consumption by FY 2030-31.  

The new draft sets a substantially larger long-term ambition. It reports approximately 170 million tonnes of crude steel production, 164 million tonnes of finished steel consumption and installed capacity of around 220 MTPA in FY 2025-26. These baseline figures should be verified against final official annual statistics before publication.  

Key steel and raw-material indicators in draft Vision 2047

Indicator	Current/base figure reported	Draft 2047 outlook
Installed steelmaking capacity	220 MTPA	604 MTPA
Crude steel production	Approx. 170 MT, FY2025-26	531 MT
Finished steel consumption	Approx. 164 MT, FY2025-26	505 MT
Per-capita steel consumption	116 kg	302 kg
Iron ore requirement	299 MT in 2025	772 MT
Coking coal requirement	Approx. 72 MT in 2025	236 MT
Manganese ore requirement	10.9 MT	34 MT
Limestone and dolomite requirement	14 MT combined	128 MT combined
Scrap availability	36 MT, FY2025-26	123 MT by FY2047-48
Coking coal import dependence	Approx. 92%	Domestic supply expansion and diversified sourcing proposed
Earlier coking coal policy objective	Approx. 85% import dependence under NSP 2017	Reduce to approx. 65% by FY2030-31
Steel emissions intensity	2.54 t CO₂/t crude steel	1.54 t CO₂/t crude steel

 

Rising Raw-Material Requirements

The draft estimates that annual iron ore requirements could increase from 299 million tonnes in 2025 to 772 million tonnes by 2047. Coking coal requirements are projected to rise from approximately 72 million tonnes to 236 million tonnes.  

It also projects requirements of 34 million tonnes of manganese ore and 128 million tonnes of combined limestone and dolomite by 2047. These are draft-policy estimates, not actual consumption or guaranteed future supply.  

India’s domestic iron ore resources provide an important foundation, but mine development, environmental clearances, beneficiation, ore quality and transport infrastructure will determine how much material can reach steelmakers economically.  

Expanding mining capacity must therefore go hand in hand with processing facilities and reliable connections to steel plants, railways and ports. 

Import Dependence and Supply Security

Coking coal remains a major vulnerability because domestic availability of suitable high-quality coal is limited relative to demand. The draft-policy coverage puts import dependence at approximately 92%. Proposed responses include expanding domestic mining and coal-washing capacity, optimising coal blends, improving resource utilisation and diversifying overseas suppliers.  

Washing yields and coal quality matter because raw coal extraction does not directly equal the quantity of usable coking coal available to steel plants.  

This concern predates Vision 2047. The National Steel Policy 2017 aimed to reduce coking-coal import dependence from approximately 85% to 65% by FY 2030-31. The new draft carries that challenge into a much larger projected industry.  

Overseas partnerships and diversified sourcing may improve resilience, but they cannot eliminate exposure to international prices, freight costs, geopolitical disruption or shortages of suitable grades.  

Other materials also require attention. Manganese and chromite support alloy production, while ferroalloys, limestone and dolomite influence steel quality and production costs.  

Scrap availability is projected to rise from 36 million tonnes in FY2025–26 to 123 million tonnes by FY2047–48, according to draft-policy coverage. Achieving this will require stronger collection, sorting and recycling systems.  

Import-dependence ratios for individual materials should be calculated only after domestic production, imports, exports and relevant consumption definitions have been reconciled.  

Infrastructure, Competitiveness and Decarbonisation

Mining and processing expansion will need to be supported by rail, port and pipeline infrastructure. The draft’s emphasis on slurry pipelines reflects the need to move large volumes of iron ore efficiently, although implementation will depend on investment, clearances and project viability. 

At the same time, the draft proposes reducing average emissions intensity from 2.54 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude steel to 1.54 tonnes by 2047, a reduction of approximately 39%.  

Greater energy efficiency, scrap use, renewable electricity and alternative steelmaking technologies could contribute, but their deployment will depend on cost, infrastructure and technology readiness. Changes in production routes will also affect future demand for coal, electricity, natural gas, hydrogen and primary iron units.  

India’s Vision 2047 is therefore not simply a capacity-expansion plan. Its success will depend on whether domestic mining, processing, recycling, overseas sourcing and logistics can provide reliable raw materials at competitive costs while supporting lower-emissions production.  

The central question is whether India can build a resilient supply chain capable of sustaining its steel ambitions through 2047. 

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