In the first half of 2024, the price of Butyl Acrylate experienced a significant increase, largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which disrupted supply chains and created uncertainty in the market. This instability not only affected the availability of Butyl Acrylate but also led to rising costs for n-butanol, a key feedstock in its production. As n-butanol prices surged, the overall production costs for Butyl Acrylate followed suit, further supporting the upward trend in pricing.
In Q1 2024, Butyl Acrylate prices in the Middle East deflated by 0.71%, primarily driven by negative market sentiments stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions and disruptions to trade routes near the Red Sea, with no viable alternatives for accessing the largest Asian markets. In contrast, the ASEAN market experienced a significant 5.74% increase in prices, fuelled by supply challenges from the Middle East and rising demand. Meanwhile, the Chinese market saw a modest increase of 1%, reflecting ongoing supply chain disruptions.
In Q2 2024, the Middle East region responded positively to rising demand, with prices witnessing a substantial increase of 23.17% compared to the previous quarter. This price surge was primarily driven by heightened demand from both the automotive and paint and coating industries, alongside geopolitical tensions that have become a new normal in the region. The ASEAN market also experienced a robust increase of 10%, fuelled by rising costs of n-butanol and a booming automotive sector. In contrast, China faced a modest decline of 3% due to oversupply issues, which negatively impacted the prices in major importing APAC countries like India and Japan. This divergence in market performance highlights the varying dynamics and challenges across the region.
In Q3 2024, the Middle East region, ASEAN, and the broader APAC region experienced price increases of 14%, 15%, and 4.5%, respectively. This rise can be attributed to easing supply disruptions, which have helped stabilize the market, alongside a significant surge in automotive demand globally. Additionally, the increase in feedstock prices has further contributed to the upward pressure on Butyl Acrylate prices. As these factors align, the market is responding positively, reflecting a robust recovery across these regions.
In Q4 2024, the price trend for Butyl Acrylate is expected to show a moderate increase or remain stable, driven by sustained automotive demand as manufacturers prepare for year-end production and new model releases. With supply chain disruptions easing, the market may achieve a better balance, although any resurgence of geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility. Additionally, rising costs of key feedstocks like n-butanol could further support higher prices. Seasonal factors, particularly increased activity in the automotive and construction industries, are likely to boost demand as the year closes.