Cement Price Trend and Forecast

Cement Price Trend Q1 2025

In Q1 2025, Cement prices increased in the Chinese market driven by pre-holiday restocking and urban redevelopment initiatives. The new year opened with a modest 1% price increase the first quarterly rise since 2022. However, a 20% coal price surge due to Russian supply constraints pressured margins even as industry consolidation strengthened pricing power for remaining players.

The property sector remained a drag with new home sales down 15% YoY, highlighting the uneven nature of the recovery. This quarter revealed an industry at a crossroads, where policy support and production discipline were beginning to yield results, but where structural challenges in real estate and overcapacity continued to limit upside potential of cement prices. 

Cement Price Trend Q2 2025

In the second quarter of 2025, China’s cement market recorded a notable 2.3% price increase, marking the strongest quarterly growth since the pandemic. This upward trend was fuelled by accelerated infrastructure investment and urban renewal initiatives, which provided steady demand momentum.

However, surging thermal coal prices, up by 18% during the quarter, significantly squeezed manufacturer margins despite higher selling prices. The property market showed early signs of stabilization, with the decline in home sales slowing to 8% year-on-year, yet lingering overcapacity and fragile real estate demand continued to cap the sector’s overall upside.

Industry consolidation gained traction with three major regional mergers, enhancing producers’ pricing discipline and suggesting a shift toward moderate but more sustainable price growth, supported by infrastructure-driven demand. According to PriceWatch, Cement prices in China were assessed at USD 60 per metric ton FOB Shanghai, by the end of Q2 2025.  

Cement Price Trend Q3 2025

During Q3 2025, cement prices across global markets exhibited a broadly mixed trend, shaped by a combination of demand contractions, policy influences, and regional supply dynamics. China recorded the most substantial price declines as severe real estate downturns and slowing infrastructure investment drove significant market weakness, while Turkey, USA, Brazil, Italy, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Bangladesh posted modestly firmer gains driven by resilient construction activity and rising input costs during the quarter.

India and Vietnam reflected mixed to near-flat movements tracking domestic weather disruptions alongside stable export momentum. The cement price trend across regions underscored the growing influence of infrastructure spending and cost pressures on global market pricing throughout the quarter.

India: Cement Local Prices Ex-North India, India, Grade- OPC 43.

In Q3 2025, Cement (OPC 43 Grade Ex-North India) prices recorded mixed movement, beginning the quarter with consistent declines before stabilizing and showing mild recovery in September. Weakened demand, elevated inventory levels, and heightened price competition among producers weighed on pricing during July and August. However, marginal improvement in construction activity toward the end of the quarter introduced early signs of a rebound.

Prices ranged between USD 3-4 per bag over the three-month period. Ample clinker availability, stable freight costs, and steady raw material flow ensured uninterrupted supply, though market sentiment remained cautious. Buying interest improved slightly in late September as public and private infrastructure projects revived post-monsoon.

By the end of September 2025, prices had inched up by 1.00%, indicating a gradual return of market stability. Monthly procurement should be maintained at consistent volumes, as continued construction activity and ongoing infrastructure work are expected to sustain steady to moderately firmer price sentiment through the next quarter.

China: Cement Local Prices Ex-Anhui, China, Grade- OPC 42.5.

In Q3 2025, Cement prices Ex-Anhui in China recorded a notably weaker movement of approximately −11.57%, as severe demand contraction from the persistent real estate downturn and slowing infrastructure investment exerted strong downward forces, with peak-shifting production discipline only partially tempering the imbalance. National cement production fell 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Anhui among provinces where the decline exceeded the national average.

The Cement price trend reflected a cautious and deteriorating environment, with the market following a “high opening, low going” pattern, and peak-shifting execution loosening through the quarter, intensifying supply-demand contradictions.

In September 2025, prices edged up around 0.11%, as late-month producer price hike notifications and tightening supply discipline under the government’s stabilization plan lent very modest support, even as demand remained weak, shipments were low, and inventories rose.

Turkey: Bulk Cement Export Prices FOB-Medcem, Turkey, Grade- Type I/II

In Q3 2025, Cement prices FOB Medcem in Turkey recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 1.36%, as resilient domestic construction demand sustained by post-earthquake reconstruction and robust export momentum exerted upward forces, with rising input costs broadly reinforcing the positive trend.

The Cement price trend FOB Medcem reflected a firming environment where producers navigated elevated construction cost pressures while export-oriented demand lent additional pricing support without triggering excessive volatility.

Prices remained broadly supported as expanding export volumes and rising energy and raw material costs underpinned the stable upward trajectory. In September 2025, prices rose around 2.18%, as peak construction season demand in key domestic and export markets intensified, transmitting further strength into spot pricing during the month.

USA: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF-Houston from Turkey, USA, Grade- Type I/II

In Q3 2025, Cement prices CIF Houston recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 1.36%, as resilient public infrastructure spending exerted upward forces, while elevated interest rates and weak private residential construction tempered the positive momentum. Import tariffs on key supplying nations added to landed costs, further underpinning prices even as overall consumption trended lower.

The Cement price trend CIF Houston reflected a cautiously firming environment where sustained highway and street construction provided a demand floor, yet single-family starts and builder confidence remained subdued. Prices were broadly supported by disciplined domestic output, tariff-driven cost increases, and steady public-sector offtake.

In September 2025, prices rose around 0.92%, as a seasonal uptick in construction, a long-awaited interest rate reduction that improved near-term sentiment, and tightening import supply transmitted further strength into spot pricing during the month.

Brazil: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Santos from Turkey, Brazil, Grade- Type I/II

In Q3 2025, Cement prices CIF Santos in Brazil recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 1.38%, as sustained demand from social housing programs and infrastructure investment exerted upward forces, with rising input costs broadly reinforcing the positive trend. The cement industry ended the quarter positively, with sales volumes increasing solidly compared to the previous year, while capacity utilisation remained stable.

The Cement price trend CIF Santos reflected a firming environment where producers navigated elevated construction costs, while public works and urban development lent additional pricing support without triggering excessive volatility.

Prices remained broadly supported as resilient domestic offtake and cost-side pressures offset the impact of minimal import penetration. In September 2025, prices rose by around 0.89%, as peak construction season demand intensified, transmitting further strength into spot pricing during the month.

Italy: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Genoa from Turkey, Italy, Grade- Type I/II

In Q3 2025, Cement prices CIF Genoa in Italy recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 1.38%, as public works and non-residential construction activity exerted upward forces on the market, with elevated energy costs and tightening carbon compliance obligations under European regulations broadly reinforcing the positive trend.

Cement production across the country rose during the nine-month period, while the broader cement and concrete supply chain expanded solidly, absorbing steady domestic offtake and anchoring prices despite a pronounced contraction in residential investment. The Cement price trend CIF Genoa reflected a firming but cautious environment where buyers and producers navigated diverging sub-sector dynamics public infrastructure lending support even as housing activity weakened sharply without triggering excessive volatility.

Prices remained broadly supported as supply-side cost pressures and disciplined capacity management offset mixed demand signals. In September 2025, Cement prices CIF Genoa rose by around 0.96%, as construction activity neared stabilisation, new orders picked up for the first time in three months, and improving demand conditions began transmitting further strength into spot pricing during the month.

Vietnam: Bulk Cement Export Prices FOB- Hai Phong, Vietnam, Grade- Type I

In Q3 2025, Cement prices FOB Hai Phong in Vietnam recorded a near-flat movement of approximately 0.42%, as a sharp domestic demand contraction from prolonged typhoons and severe weather disruptions exerted downward forces, with robust export momentum to Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe broadly offsetting the weakness. Domestic sales declined sharply while exports surged, absorbing excess supply.

The price trend reflected a balanced environment where producers navigated rising input costs that squeezed margins, while export shipments provided an essential outlet. Prices remained stable as shifting trade policies prompted rebalancing toward alternative markets. In September 2025, prices edged up around 0.15%, as improving weather and accelerating public investment disbursement transmitted modest support into spot pricing.

Bangladesh: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Chittagong from Vietnam, Bangladesh, Grade- Type I

In Q3 2025, Cement prices CIF Chittagong in Bangladesh recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 0.58%, as rising imported raw material costs clinker and gypsum becoming costlier alongside higher policy rates exerted upward forces on the market, while severe overcapacity and weakening construction demand broadly tempered the positive momentum.

The Cement price trend CIF Chittagong reflected a cautiously firming environment where the industry operated at below one-third of total capacity, with several plants suspending operations entirely and listed producers reporting sharply divergent performances during the quarter. Prices remained broadly supported by elevated input costs and public infrastructure commitments under multi-year development plans, even as consumption fell further from the prior year.

In September 2025, prices edged down by around 0.15%, as monsoon-related construction slowdowns and subdued project execution modestly curtailed procurement activity, transmitting slight weakness into CIF assessments during the month.

Malaysia: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Port Klang from Vietnam, Malaysia, Grade- Type I

In Q3 2025, Cement prices CIF Port Klang in Malaysia recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 0.64%, as resilient construction activity supported by strong civil engineering and residential projects exerted upward forces on the market, with cost-side pressures from elevated coal prices broadly reinforcing the positive trend.

The Cement price trend CIF Port Klang reflected a cautiously firming environment where buyers and producers navigated a robust project pipeline driven by infrastructure spending, data centre construction, and the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, which sustained healthy demand across Peninsular Malaysia. Prices remained broadly supported as steady offtake and rising operational costs offset any softening from subdued export activity and import competition.

In September 2025, prices edged down by around 0.17%, as typical seasonal moderation and slower project execution during the rainy spell curtailed procurement activity, transmitting slight weakness into CIF assessments during the month.

Philippines: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Manila from Vietnam, Philippines, Grade- Type I

In Q3 2025, Cement prices CIF Manila in the Philippines recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 0.62%, as resilient public infrastructure spending under the government’s flagship construction program exerted upward forces, while rising import volumes from Vietnam and other regional suppliers broadly tempered the positive momentum.

The Cement price trend CIF Manila reflected a cautiously firming environment where steady domestic offtake was partially offset by cheaper overseas supply, limiting sharper price gains. Prices remained broadly supported by infrastructure-led demand, though the influx of regional imports and softening clinker costs capped further strength.

In September 2025, prices edged down by around 0.16%, as seasonal monsoon disruptions and slower project execution modestly curtailed procurement activity, transmitting slight weakness into spot pricing during the month.

Cement Price Trend Q4 2025

During Q4 2025, cement prices across global markets exhibited a broadly decline to mixed trend, shaped by a combination of seasonal demand contractions, policy adjustments, and divergent supply-demand dynamics. India recorded the most substantial price softening Ex-North as post-monsoon slowdowns, elevated inventories, and the GST rate cut from 28% to 18% effective September 22 drove significant domestic market disruption, while China posted near-flat movements Ex-Anhui driven by disciplined peak-shifting production amid real estate weakness during the quarter.

Turkey, USA, Brazil, and Italy reflected weaker declines on FOB/CIF bases from seasonal construction halts and softening imports, whereas Vietnam, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Philippines posted modestly firmer gains tracking tightening supply alongside stable logistics conditions.

The cement price trend across regions underscored the growing influence of seasonal cost pressures and regional supply balances on global market pricing throughout the quarter.

India: Cement Local Prices Ex-North India, India, Grade- OPC 43.

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in India have been recording a downward movement of approximately −8.18% QoQ, as post-monsoon demand slowdowns, elevated inventory levels, and the GST rate cut from 28% to 18% effective September 22 stemming from seasonal construction halts and policy shifts have been exerting persistent downward forces on the market, with supply overhang having been broadly amplifying pricing pressures.

The Cement price trend in India has been reflecting a cautious procurement environment where buyers and producers have been navigating softening activity, capacity additions (nearly 6%), and GST-driven cost reductions without significant net price support during the quarter. Cement prices have been trending lower as domestic production continuity, regional imbalances, and the tax relief have been facilitating deeper adjustments.

According to Price-Watch™ , in December 2025, Cement prices in India have been falling by around 8.57% MoM, as inventory buildup, demand cycles, and the immediate impact of the GST reduction have been intensifying pressures and have been transmitting more forcefully into spot pricing during the month.

China: Cement Local Prices Ex-Anhui, China, Grade- OPC 42.5.

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in China recorded a near-flat movement of approximately −1.38%, as weakening downstream demand exerted downward forces while disciplined peak-shifting production in the Yangtze River corridor tightened clinker availability and broadly balanced the seasonal demand contraction.

According to the 2025 national cement industry report, full-year output fell 6.9% year-on-year to a fifteen-year low, driven by a 17.2% decline in real estate investment and a 2.2% contraction in infrastructure investment. The Cement price trend in China reflected a cautious procurement environment where buyers navigated subdued downstream offtake, while producers maintained elevated kiln shutdown rates under the six-ministry stabilization plan, preventing deeper price erosion.

Prices remained largely range-bound as disciplined output management partially offset sustained demand-side erosion. In December 2025, Cement prices in China edged up by around 0.57%, as peak-shifting production prompted active supply contraction while year-end rush construction demand provided a market basis for modest price support.

Turkey: Bulk Cement Export Prices FOB-Medcem, Turkey, Grade- Type I/II

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in Turkey recorded a broadly weaker movement of approximately −3.74%, as seasonal construction slowdowns and a sharp rise in domestic cement production output climbing over nine percent in the first eleven months, keeping capacity utilisation around sixty percent exerted downward forces, with resilient export momentum only partially offsetting the growing supply overhang.

The Cement price trend in Turkey reflected a cautious environment where buyers navigated reduced winter project activity and ample local availability, while export-oriented producers faced declining international benchmarks, with Mediterranean Basin trade assessments retreating steadily through the quarter.

Prices remained under pressure as softer overseas spot buying interest and narrowing price spreads weighed on FOB assessments. In December 2025, Cement prices in Turkey edged down by around 0.47%, as adverse winter weather further curtailed construction activity and limited year-end restocking, transmitting moderate weakness into pricing during the month.

USA: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF-Houston from Turkey, USA, Grade- Type I/II

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in the US recorded a weaker movement of approximately −3.80%, as high interest rates cooled residential and traditional commercial construction, exerting downward forces, while infrastructure and data center projects provided only partial support. Cement consumption fell year-on-year and import volumes contracted sharply as tariff-driven cost increases dampened overseas purchasing.

The Cement price trend in the US reflected a cautious environment, with the Houston/Galveston district handling over a fifth of US cement imports particularly exposed to weakening demand and trade policy uncertainties. Prices remained under sustained pressure as residential weakness and import cost headwinds offset infrastructure-led demand.

In December 2025, Cement prices in the US edged down by around 0.80%, as year-end seasonal slowdowns and subdued construction activity curtailed spot buying, transmitting further weakness into CIF assessments during the month.

Brazil: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Santos from Turkey, Brazil, Grade- Type I/II

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in Brazil recorded a broadly weaker movement of approximately −3.79%, as a seasonal construction slowdown and high interest rates that dampened real estate financing exerted downward forces, while social housing programs provided partial support. Sales volumes grew year-on-year but declined sequentially from the third-quarter peak, with total annual sales still below the historical high.

The Cement price trend in Brazil reflected a cautious environment, as retail construction material sales contracted and real estate financing dropped sharply, keeping procurement measured. Prices remained under pressure as macroeconomic headwinds offset infrastructure investment support. In December 2025, Cement prices in Brazil edged down around 0.80%, as year-end holidays and subdued activity curtailed spot buying, transmitting moderate weakness into pricing.

Italy: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Genoa from Turkey, Italy, Grade- Type I/II

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in Italy recorded a broadly weaker movement of approximately −3.78%, as a year-end construction slowdown and rising import penetration exerted downward forces, with elevated energy costs and carbon-compliance obligations only partially offsetting the demand contraction. Construction activity deteriorated through the quarter, with building permits declining and residential construction contracting at its steepest pace in nearly eighteen months, while climbing imports deepened competitive pressure.

The Cement price trend in Italy reflected a cautious environment where buyers navigated weakening new orders and deteriorating procurement conditions, as project completions compounded the slowdown. Prices remained under sustained pressure as ample supply and muted offtake outweighed cost-side support, while rising raw material and energy expenses squeezed producer margins without translating into pricing gains.

In December 2025, Cement prices in Italy edged down by around 0.78%, as construction activity contracted steeply, purchasing is sharply curtailed, and subdued restocking transmitted further weakness into CIF assessments during the month.

Vietnam: Bulk Cement Export Prices FOB- Hai Phong, Vietnam, Grade- Type I

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in Vietnam recorded a moderately firmer movement of approximately 2.60%, as tightening seaborne supply and rising domestic production costs exerted upward forces, with resilient export demand to the Philippines, East Africa, and other emerging markets broadly reinforcing the positive trend. The Cement price trend in Vietnam reflected a firming environment where major producers implemented price increases to offset high input costs, while tight clinker availability supported the upward trajectory.

Prices remained broadly supported as domestic demand continued its recovery, fueled by accelerated public infrastructure investment and a gradual housing rebound, while export volumes sustained double-digit growth. In December 2025, Cement prices in Vietnam rose by around 1.31%, as tightening spot supply and robust year-end export bookings transmitted further strength into FOB pricing during the month.

Bangladesh: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Chittagong from Vietnam, Bangladesh, Grade- Type I

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in Bangladesh recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 1.11%, as rising imported raw material costs and escalating maritime freight expenses-intensifying through the final months of the year-exerted upward forces on the market, while severe overcapacity and persistently weak construction demand broadly tempered the positive momentum.

Most plants continued operating at well below one-third of installed capacity, with consumption having contracted further from the prior year and political uncertainty ahead of the upcoming national elections keeping private construction activity subdued. The Cement price trend in Bangladesh reflected a cautiously firming environment where producers implemented modest price adjustments to offset mounting cost-side pressures, even as procurement remained constrained.

Prices remained broadly supported by elevated input costs and steady rural construction activity, which provided a fragile demand floor. In December 2025, Cement prices in Bangladesh rose by around 0.69%, as year-end restocking and the lagged pass-through of higher clinker and freight costs transmitted modest strength into CIF assessments during the month.

Malaysia: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Port Klang from Vietnam, Malaysia, Grade- Type I

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in Malaysia recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 1.22%, as sustained construction activity underpinned by data centre investments, infrastructure projects under multi-year development plans, and the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone exerted upward forces, with stable input costs broadly reinforcing the positive trend.

The construction sector maintained positive momentum, expanding at a double-digit pace during the quarter, though residential building growth moderated noticeably from the prior period. The Cement price trend in Malaysia reflected a firming environment where buyers and producers navigated robust demand from non-residential and civil engineering works, while steady coal costs and improved operational efficiencies lent additional pricing support.

Prices remained broadly supported as tightening supply dynamics and strong private-sector project pipelines offset softer export activity. In December 2025, Cement prices in Malaysia rose by around 0.76%, as year-end construction activity and rising building material costs cement unit price indices climbing across all regions transmitted further strength into CIF assessments during the month.

Philippines: Bulk Cement Import Prices CIF- Manila from Vietnam, Philippines, Grade- Type I

In Q4 2025, Cement prices in the Philippines recorded a modestly firmer movement of approximately 1.20%, as tightening import supply following safeguard duties imposed on foreign cement and sustained anti-dumping measures on Vietnamese shipments exerted upward forces on landed costs, while a sharp slowdown in government infrastructure spending and softer fourth-quarter demand broadly tempered the positive momentum.

The Cement price trend in the Philippines reflected a cautiously firming environment where buyers navigated weaker public-sector offtake and tighter project validation, while import restrictions lent underlying support to spot assessments. Prices remained broadly supported by constrained overseas inflows, even as full-year demand contracted.

In December 2025, Cement prices in the Philippines rose by around 0.75%, as year-end restocking activity and the lagged pass-through of elevated import costs transmitted further strength into CIF pricing during the month.