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cold rolled coil Pricing Assessment

  • Commodity Pricing

Markets Covered: 

inIndia
cnChina
usUnited States
gbUnited Kingdom

Cold Rolled Coil Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In Q1, CRC prices in global markets saw fluctuations during Q1 2024, with prices increasing slightly in some regions due to strong demand and continued recovery in key industries like automotive and construction. However, some regions also experienced price corrections due to overproduction or slower demand. In Europe, CRC prices showed a 10% increase, mainly due to higher energy prices, the cost of raw materials, and a reduction in steel production capacity. Indian and Chinese market edged down on a quarterly basis in Q1 2024.  

In Q2 2024, Global CRC prices showed drop in Q2 2024 after the volatility in Q1. However, regional markets experienced varied trends based on local demand and production conditions. The US and UK market saw a significant decline of 10% in prices, primarily due to weak demand and an oversupply of steel. Contributing factors include high interest rates, reduced production activity, and a drop in crude steel manufacturing. As a result, major steelmakers significantly adjusted their prices, further deepening the market’s bearish outlook. Prices in India edged down by 1% and from China by 9% respectively. 

In Q3 2024, Prices in the third quarter showed decline in major economies. Domestic CRC prices fell in India by 4% in Q32024, in China by 9%, USA by 11% and the United Kingdom by 2% as against fourth quarter 2023. Sluggish demand from key sectors like automotive and construction, coupled with an oversupply of steel, put downward pressure on prices. High interest rates reduced investment and financing, leading to slower economic activity. Additionally, a decline in crude steel production, fluctuating raw material costs, and price cuts by major steelmakers to clear excess inventory further reinforced the bearish sentiment. In both developed and emerging economies, there was a decline in the manufacturing of crude steel in Q3 2024. This reduction was partly due to higher operational costs, particularly from energy prices and raw material costs. The slowdown in steel production, in turn, led to a decreased need for CRC. These factors combined to drive a notable reduction in CRC prices during the quarter. 

In Q4 2024, CRC prices in last quarter 2024 fell which 7% price rise in China. The market remained under pressure from oversupply, and fluctuating raw material costs, which capped any significant price rebounds. In India, domestic demand supported some price stability, especially from infrastructure projects, but competition from imports and global trade uncertainties kept prices relatively flat. Despite some recovery, the overall market remained cautious due to ongoing economic concerns and supply-demand imbalances.

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Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in cold rolled coil prices

  • Global Economic Downturn (2019-2020): The global economic slowdown, particularly in sectors like steel and automotive, led to reduced demand for CRC, resulting in lower prices. 
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2019-2020): The global pandemic led to a significant decline in demand for CRC-intensive industries, such as steelmaking and automotive manufacturing, causing prices to plummet. 
  • Global Supply Chain Disruption (2022): The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions disrupted supply chains, leading to price volatility in various commodities, including CRC. 
  • Impact on Investment and Financing: Elevated interest rates globally, particularly in major economies like the U.S. and Europe, made financing more expensive for businesses.  

These events underscore the CRC market’s vulnerability to global disruptions and highlight the need for continuous monitoring of supply-demand dynamics. 

Methodology and Specifications

Price-Watch cold rolled coil Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

  • Real-Time Market Data: Price-Watch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major CRC production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire CRC supply chain, from raw material availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics. 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

  • Geopolitical Tensions: Price-Watch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact CRC prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing. 
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on CRC production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks. 
  • Economic Shifts: Price-Watch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging, to predict shifts in CRC demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global CRC production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately. 
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming CRC production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization. 

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: Price-Watch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments. 
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global CRC pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations. 

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: Price-Watch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast CRC prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power. 
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes. 

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations. 
  • Ongoing Support: Price-Watch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice. 

This research methodology ensures that Price-Watch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable CRC pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

CAS No

HS Code

72251920

Molecular Formula

cold rolled coil

A cold rolled coil (CRC) is a type of steel product produced by further processing hot rolled coil (HRC) through a process where the steel is cooled to room temperature and then passed through rollers to achieve the desired thickness and surface finish. Unlike HRC, the cold rolling process is done at room temperature, which increases the strength, hardness, and surface smoothness of the steel. This results in a product with superior dimensional accuracy and a more polished finish, making it ideal for applications in industries like automotive, appliances, and construction.

Packaging Type

Container

Grades Covered

DC01 1.00mm, SPCC 1.0mm, IS513 - 0.9mm, SAE 1008 1.0mm

Incoterms Used

FOB Shanghai (China), Ex-Mumbai (India), Ex-Alabama (USA), FD Sheffield (UK)

Synonym

CRC

Price-Watch Quotation Terms:

15-18 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property  Specification 
Carbon Content (%)  0.02 – 0.12 
Thickness (mm)  0.25 – 3.0 
Width (mm)  600 – 2050 
Yield Strength (MPa)  180 – 450 
Tensile Strength (MPa)  270 – 600 

Applications

Automotive Industry: manufacturing body panels, door panels Construction: Door frames and windows Appliance Manufacturing: refrigerators, washing machines, and ovens Railways: manufacturing rails, railcars Packaging: production of steel drums, cans.

Disclaimer

Cold Rolled Coil price provided by Price-Watch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for cold rolled coil. Price-Watch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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