In Q1 2025, Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices increased in the UK, USA, and India compared to Q4 2024, supported by tighter supply, improved demand, and trade policy measures. Market sentiment in these regions was cautiously optimistic, with buyers returning and mills pushing for higher offers amid expectations of further economic recovery.
In contrast, China’s HRC prices declined from $512/MT in Q4 2024 to $506/MT FOB Shanghai, in Q1 2025, reflecting a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter drop. This decrease was driven by weak domestic demand, ongoing challenges in the property sector, and heightened export competition due to yuan devaluation and global trade barriers.
While infrastructure and automotive sectors in China showed some resilience, they were insufficient to offset the drag from real estate, keeping overall market conditions subdued and prices under pressure.
In Q1 2025, the Indian HRC market showed early signs of stabilization, with prices inching up to $613/MT Ex-Mumbai a marginal 0.3% increase from the previous quarter. This slight improvement was supported by renewed buying from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors as government spending picked up and downstream industries began restocking. Mills, having reduced inventories in the previous quarters, were able to hold prices firmer.
Export demand also showed slight improvement, with Indian HRC becoming more attractive to buyers in select markets. While the recovery was modest, market participants grew more optimistic, anticipating further improvement in demand and pricing in the coming quarters as economic activity picked up post-monsoon.
According to PriceWatch, In Q2 2025, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices in China declined from $506 per metric tonne in Q1 to $492.7 per metric tonne in Q2, a 2.63% decrease. This drop was primarily driven by a combination of escalating trade tensions, increased domestic production, and weak export demand. The Asian steel market entered Q2 under the shadow of a deepening US-China trade dispute, with new tariffs and protectionist safeguards creating uncertainty for both buyers and sellers.
Chinese HRC output surged in Q1, leading to oversupply in the domestic market and intensifying competition among exporters. Export opportunities were further constrained by high US tariffs and reduced quotas in the EU, forcing Chinese mills to seek alternative, often lower-margin, export markets. As a result, prices came under pressure, with market participants expecting further declines unless significant production cuts are implemented to restore balance.
The US HRC market experienced a rise in prices, reflected in a 6.75% increase in Q2. This upward movement was fueled by tight domestic supply, robust restocking, and successful price hikes by major US mills. The US steel sector benefited from strong demand in infrastructure and manufacturing, while import competition remained limited due to ongoing trade barriers and tariffs.
Mills capitalized on these conditions by announcing multiple price increases, which buyers accepted amid concerns over future supply bottlenecks and rising raw material costs. The market’s bullish sentiment was reinforced by a stable economic outlook and government infrastructure initiatives, allowing prices to reach their highest levels for the year.
In the UK, HRC prices increased by 3.57% in Q2. The price uptick was supported by steady demand from automotive and manufacturing sectors, higher input costs, and cautious supply management by mills. While overall demand remained moderate, UK and European producers benefited from improved sentiment and limited supply availability, particularly as buyers faced challenges securing urgent HRC supplies due to force majeure conditions in the region.
The market also saw some upward pressure from new import taxes and regulatory changes, which encouraged buyers to secure material in advance of potential further price increases. Despite these factors, buyers remained cautious, wary of overcommitting amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
According to PriceWatch, Indian HRC prices rose from $595 per metric tonne to $613 per metric tonne, a 3.03% rise in Q2 2025. The Indian HRC market saw this moderate price increase due to strong domestic demand, especially from infrastructure and manufacturing, as well as government policy support. Early in the year, prices faced mild corrections due to increased imports and global trade volatility, but as Q2 progressed, domestic policy interventions and robust infrastructure spending provided a floor for prices.
Additionally, the rupee’s slight depreciation contributed to higher USD-denominated prices, making Indian HRC more attractive in export markets. Looking ahead, continued fluctuations are expected, but domestic consumption and policy support are likely to keep prices relatively stable.
During Q3 2025, Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) pricing across the main global markets has generally been flat, impacted by weakening demand from manufacturing, stable raw material costs, and increasing import competition. The single exception has been China, which recorded a slight quarterly increase driven by consumption related to infrastructure spending, all other markets suffered declines, including India, the USA, and the UK, all amid weak industrial activity and hesitant buying behavior.
Hot rolled coil (HRC) demand sentiment remained weak as buyers continued to postpone restocking, and mills focused on maintaining market share instead of improving pricing, which ultimately led to a relatively soft tone for the global HRC market through the quarter.
China: Hot rolled coil (HRC)Â Export prices FOB Shanghai, China, Grade- SS400 2.75mm.
According to Price-Watch, the Hot rolled coil (HRC) price trend in China rose by 0.56% in Q3 2025, reflecting a mild recovery supported by stronger demand from infrastructure projects and steady consumption in machinery manufacturing. Government-backed investment initiatives in public works offered some stimulus to the steel market, while targeted production cuts by leading mills prevented excessive oversupply.
However, the upside was capped by persistent weakness in exports as global buyers scaled back orders amid economic uncertainties, along with stable raw material prices that limited cost-driven increases. Hot rolled coil (HRC) prices in China fell by 1.1% in September 2025 as seasonal demand slowed, especially from construction and shipbuilding sectors, while mills kept output levels steady, creating localized oversupply and pressuring spot offers.
India: Hot rolled coil (HRC) Domestic prices EX-Mumbai, India, Grade- IS2062 2.5-8mm.
According to Price-Watch, in India, the price trend of Hot Rolled Coil experienced a significant decline of 3.50% during Q3 2025 due to waning demand from automotive, engineering and appliance sectors. The sharp price drop has been exacerbated by increased low-cost imports from Asia which further put pressure on domestic producers, forcing domestic mills to cut prices in order to protect their market share.
A healthy availability of feedstock and steady production rates provided a lack of supply side support while buyers remained very cautious when it came to purchasing which translated into a drop in order entry. Infrastructure demand remained firm however inadequate to offset the weakness seen in manufacturing as a whole.
A slight 0.5% fall has been registered in Hot Rolled Coil prices in India for the month of September 2025 as buyers delayed making purchases in anticipation of prices declining further. Producers have been forced to prioritize sales volume and have had to accept firm pricing but in a very weak pricing environment.
United States: Hot rolled coil (HRC) Domestic prices EX Alabama, USA, Grade- A1011-1.8mm.
The Hot rolled coil (HRC) price trend in the USA slipped by 0.86% in Q3 2025, influenced by a slowdown in manufacturing activity and softer demand from the construction sector. Service centers reported higher inventory levels, which limited new buying requirements and prompted price adjustments. Input cost relief from lower scrap and ore prices added to the downward trend, while competition from imported material restricted domestic producers’ ability to hold firm prices.
Hot rolled coil (HRC) prices in the USA declined by 0.3% in September 2025 as subdued order activity from distributors and OEMs persisted, with buyers opting for short-term deals to reduce inventory exposure amid a cautious economic outlook.
United Kingdom: Hot rolled coil (HRC) Domestic prices FD Sheffield, UK, Grade- S235JR 2-3mm.
According to Price-Watch, The Hot rolled coil (HRC) price trend in the UK fell by 1.80% in Q3 2025, driven by weaker demand from automotive and construction sectors along with soft purchasing activity from distributors. Competitive import offers from European mills targeting the UK market further pressured domestic prices, as local producers struggled with margin constraints due to high operating costs.
Export sales were limited by unfavorable currency movements and weak foreign market activity, adding to the domestic oversupply. Hot rolled coil (HRC) prices in the UK eased by 0.1% in September 2025 as demand remained steady but muted, with buyers controlling procurement volumes to avoid inventory buildup ahead of uncertain market conditions in Q4 2025.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, the hot rolled coil (HRC) marketplace demonstrated differences in behavior due to weakening demand from manufacturing sectors, stable costs for raw materials, and different levels of import pressure around the world. The Chinese market faced clean headwinds with very low capacity utilization at approximately 78.5%, high levels of inventory at the mills and traders, and limited exports because of global anti-dumping measures causing soft pricing throughout the quarter.
The western markets (USA and UK) saw a benefit from protectionism in relation to trade as well as the imposition of discipline on suppliers, while India had to deal with regional tap spillover (oversupply) and unevenness of performance across the regions.
HRC SS400 2.75mm FOB Shanghai, China
According to Price-Watchâ„¢ , The price trend of Hot Rolled Coil in China declined by 2.6% in Q4 2025, primarily due to capacity utilization dipping to 78.5%, signaling persistent overcapacity and weak operational efficiency across major mills. Elevated inventories at producers and traders, coupled with tepid domestic demand from construction slowdowns post-policy stimulus fade, exerted downward pressure throughout October-December. Exports remained challenged by global anti-dumping duties and competition from cheaper alternatives, while steady iron ore and coking coal costs failed to provide cost-push support.
Production growth in prior months flooded downstream channels, capping any recovery attempts amid rangebound futures trading. Hot Rolled Coil prices in China fell by -0.1% in December 2025 as ongoing supply looseness persisted, with mills maintaining steady output levels despite seasonal year-end demand from infrastructure projects. Futures contracts stabilized around Yuan 3,300/mt, but high stock levels at major ports discouraged aggressive restocking by traders and end-users. Weak export momentum into Southeast Asia further softened spot offers, preventing any late-quarter rebound.
HRC IS2062 2.5-8mm Ex-Mumbai, India
The price trend of Hot Rolled Coil in India declined by -3.0% in Q4 2025, driven by aggressive import surges projected at 137,500 mt arrivals flooding the market and undermining domestic producers’ pricing power. Seasonal post-festive demand weakness in construction and autos compounded issues, with liquidity shortages leading to deferred purchases and high stock buildup at warehouses. China’s regional oversupply spillover depressed export indices by 5% QoQ to the Middle East, while raw material stability offered no relief amid cautious mill adjustments.
Buyers favored spot deals at lower levels around ₹47,000-49,500/mt, reflecting broader Asian softness and limited government interventions. Hot Rolled Coil prices in India fell by -0.7% in December 2025 amid persistent import pressure that continued to outpace domestic consumption needs. Post-holiday stabilization in key consuming sectors like real estate and manufacturing failed to materialize quickly, leading to extended buyer caution and deferred inquiries. Domestic mills struggled to offload excess stocks, exacerbating the downward trajectory in spot markets.
HRC A1011-1.8mm Ex-Alabama, USA
The price trend of Hot Rolled Coil in the USA rose by +3.7% in Q4 2025, fueled by escalated Section 232 tariffs under President Trump (25-50% on key origins), which slashed import volumes from Canada, Mexico, and Asia, tightening domestic availability. Reduced foreign competition empowered mills to lift offers, despite soft end-user demand from automotive slowdowns and construction hesitancy in a high-interest environment. Hand-to-mouth buying patterns minimized inventory risks, while scrap costs firmed modestly, supporting producer margins and reversing earlier quarterly downside forecasts.
Policy-driven protectionism overshadowed global weakness, stabilizing service centers and specialty fabricators. Hot Rolled Coil prices in the USA rose by +5.6% in December 2025 as tariff impacts peaked, with sharply reduced import bookings creating acute supply tightness for service centers. Domestic mills capitalized on the scarcity by firming up offers, while buyers shifted focus from offshore sourcing to local availability amid rising lead times. End-user sectors like appliances saw modest restocking, further bolstering the late-quarter rally.
HRC S235JR 2-3mm FD Sheffield, UK
The price trend of Hot Rolled Coil in the UK rose by 1.4% in Q4 2025, sustained by steady European supply discipline amid high import quotas but moderated by Trump’s tariffs diverting global flows away from oversupplied Asia. Recessionary pressures curbed demand from infrastructure and manufacturing. Weak construction activity and auto sector inventory drawdowns limited upside, but no major disruptions in energy or scrap inputs aided resilience versus continental peers. Overall, policy spillovers and regional stability prevented sharper declines seen elsewhere.
Hot Rolled Coil prices in the UK rose by 1.4% in December 2025 amid a shift to firmer seller dynamics, with continental mills shortening delivery times to attract orders. Buyers weighed risks from potential quota exhaustions and US policy spillovers, opting for measured restocking that supported modest price gains. Stable scrap and energy inputs provided mills with confidence to maintain elevated offers without major pushbacks.
