hot rolled coil Pricing Assessment

  • Commodity Pricing

Markets Covered: 

inIndia
cnChina
usUnited States
gbUnited Kingdom

Hot Rolled Coil Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In Q1 2024, the global Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market exhibited mixed regional trends. China experienced a significant increase in HRC prices, driven by robust domestic demand, government infrastructure projects, and a rebound in manufacturing activities post-pandemic restrictions. In contrast, India’s HRC prices declined due to subdued demand from key sectors like automotive and construction, coupled with elevated inventory levels and competitive export pressures. Meanwhile, the United States witnessed a notable price uptick fueled by strong downstream demand in the construction and automotive sectors, supported by federal infrastructure spending. Similarly, the United Kingdom experienced an upward trend in HRC prices, attributed to steady demand recovery and a weakened pound, which made exports more competitive. These regional dynamics highlight the divergent market forces shaping the global HRC industry in early 2024. 

In Q2 2024, the global Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market witnessed a mixed trend across key regions, reflecting varying economic and industrial conditions. In China, a decline in demand was driven by weakened manufacturing activity and subdued construction growth, leading to a downward price trend. Similarly, the United States experienced a reduction in HRC prices due to lower consumption from the automotive and construction sectors amid economic uncertainties. The United Kingdom also faced a decreasing trend, with subdued demand and increasing import competition pressuring domestic mills. Conversely, India stood out with a notable increase in HRC demand, supported by robust infrastructure development, strong automotive production, and a government push for industrial expansion. This divergence in regional dynamics highlights the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors and sector-specific developments shaping the global HRC market. 

In Q3, the global market for Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) experienced a notable downturn in Q3 2024, driven by synchronized declines across key regions. In China, decreased construction activity and muted manufacturing output, coupled with high inventory levels, led to a significant reduction in domestic HRC prices. Similarly, India witnessed subdued demand from infrastructure projects and automotive sectors, compounded by weaker export opportunities, which pressured HRC prices downward. In the United States, the slowdown in industrial activities, paired with elevated interest rates and reduced downstream demand, resulted in a bearish market sentiment for HRC. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom grappled with inflationary pressures and sluggish economic recovery, further dampening demand for steel products. This combined global trend underscores the impact of macroeconomic challenges and sectoral slowdowns on the HRC market, signalling a period of consolidation for producers and stakeholders. 

InQ4, the global Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market witnessed mixed trends in Q4 2024, with regional disparities shaping the overall dynamics. In China, HRC prices experienced a decline driven by sluggish domestic demand, an oversupply scenario, and reduced construction activity due to seasonal factors. Similarly, India saw a downward trend in HRC prices as weak downstream demand and increased imports exerted pressure on domestic producers. Contrarily, the USA reported an upward trend in HRC prices, fuelled by robust demand from the automotive and construction sectors, alongside rising input costs and supply chain constraints. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom recorded a decline in HRC prices, influenced by reduced manufacturing output and economic uncertainties dampening steel consumption. These regional fluctuations reflect the diverse economic and industrial conditions impacting the global steel market.

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Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in hot rolled coil prices

  • Global Economic Downturn (2019-2020): The global economic slowdown, particularly in sectors like steel and automotive, led to reduced demand for HRC, resulting in lower prices. 
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2019-2020): The global pandemic led to a significant decline in demand for HRC-intensive industries, such as steelmaking and automotive manufacturing, causing prices to plummet. 
  • Global Supply Chain Disruption (2022): The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions disrupted supply chains, leading to price volatility in various commodities, including HRC. 

These events underscore the HRC market’s vulnerability to global disruptions and highlight the need for continuous monitoring of supply-demand dynamics.

Methodology and Specifications

Price-Watch hot rolled coil Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

  • Real-Time Market Data: Price-Watch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major HRC production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire HRC supply chain, from raw material availability to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics. 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

  • Geopolitical Tensions: Price-Watch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact HRC prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing. 
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on HRC production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks. 
  • Economic Shifts: Price-Watch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging, to predict shifts in HRC demand and corresponding price movements. 

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global HRC production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately. 
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming HRC production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: Price-Watch provides an in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments. 
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global HRC pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations. 

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: Price-Watch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast HRC prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power. 
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes. 

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations. 
  • Ongoing Support: Price-Watch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice. 

This research methodology ensures that Price-Watch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable HRC pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

CAS No

HS Code

720810

Molecular Formula

hot rolled coil

A hot rolled coil (HRC) is a type of steel product produced through a process where steel is heated above its recrystallization temperature and then rolled into thin sheets or coils. This process involves passing the heated steel through a series of rollers to reduce its thickness and shape it into long, flat products. The result is a versatile and widely used material in various industries, including construction, automotive, and manufacturing.

Packaging Type

Container

Grades Covered

IS2062 2.5-8mm, SS400 2.75mm, A1011-1.8mm and S235JR 2-3mm

Incoterms Used

FOB Shanghai (China), Ex-Mumbai (India), Ex-Alabama (USA), FD Sheffield (UK)

Synonym

HRC

Price-Watch Quotation Terms:

15-18 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property  Specification 
Carbon Content (%)  ≤ 0.25 (varies slightly by grade) 
Yield Strength (MPa)  235 – 275 (minimum) 
Tensile Strength (MPa)  400 – 550 
Elongation (%)  ≥ 20 (for a gauge length of 200 mm) 
Hardness (HRB)  50 – 70 (typical) 
Density (g/cm³)  7.85 
Modulus of Elasticity (GPa)  200 
Melting Point (°C)  ~1425 – 1540 
Thickness (mm)  1.6 – 25.4 (common range, varies by supplier) 
Width (mm)  600 – 2100 
Surface Finish  Hot rolled, with mill scale (standard), optional pickled & oiled finish available 
Weldability  Excellent (low carbon content ensures good weldability) 
Formability  Good 
Corrosion Resistance  Low (prone to rust without surface treatment or coating) 
Thermal Conductivity (W/m·K)  ~50 at 20°C 
Electrical Conductivity (% IACS)  ~5 – 7 

Applications

Automotive Industry: car bodies, chassis Shipbuilding: ships and marine vessels Appliance Manufacturing: refrigerators, washing machines, and ovens Railways: manufacturing rails, railcars Steel Processing: processing into cold-rolled steel, galvanized steel, and other specialized products Consumer Goods: metal furniture, filing cabinets, and certain metal containers.

Disclaimer

Hot Rolled Coil price provided by Price-Watch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for hot rolled coil. Price-Watch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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