high-density polyethylene Pricing Assessment

Markets Covered:

United States

Mexico

Brazil

Belgium

Germany

France

Italy

Saudi Arabia

China

India

High-Density Polyethylene Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In Q1 2024, High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) prices exhibited a bullish trend across North America, APAC, MEA, and European markets, with the US market observed a notable 21.5% price increase. Several key factors contributed to this upward momentum. Strong demand from major industries, especially construction, played a pivotal role. Increased construction activity and positive business sentiment fuelled overall economic growth, enhancing confidence in future market prospects. Additionally, rising feedstock costs, particularly for Ethylene, driven by escalating upstream Naphtha and Crude Oil prices, pushed production costs higher, further elevating HDPE prices. The US market experienced the most significant price movements, with steady increases observed throughout the quarter.

In Q2 2024, the European HDPE market faced considerable challenges, marked by sustained downward pressure on prices. This decline was driven by weakened demand from key downstream sectors such as construction and automotive. The drop in demand was exacerbated by high inventory levels, leading to an oversupply, despite occasional logistical disruptions, including severe weather conditions in Germany. Moreover, increased global exports from the USA and Middle East intensified competitive pressures, worsening the supply glut. Economic uncertainty and rising inflation across the Eurozone further dampened consumer confidence and spending, further limiting demand. Germany saw the most significant price changes, with an 8% decline, reflecting the broader market dynamics throughout the quarter.

At the beginning of Q3 2024, HDPE prices showed an upward trend, with a 6% month-over-month increase. This rise was primarily driven by supply constraints caused by reduced import volumes and lower domestic production. The ongoing Red Sea crisis further aggravated supply chain disruptions, forcing vessels to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This rerouting created congestion at alternative routes and key transshipment hubs critical to trade between Asia and Europe, as reported by major market participants. These logistical disruptions significantly impacted global supply chains, intensifying supply shortages in the European HDPE market. However, in early August, freight rates began to normalize, which could influence HDPE prices in the following months. By the end of the first month of Q3 2024, HDPE prices in Antwerp, on a free-delivery (FD) basis, hovered around USD 1278/MT.

Looking at Q4 2024, it is anticipated that HDPE prices may decline following the Q3 price hike. This potential drop may be due to lower demand owing to the onset of the summer season in some regions and the normalization of freight rates. The sharp increase in freight rates, spurred by the Red Sea crisis and port congestion, is expected to stabilize, and may further influence HDPE pricing dynamics. Additionally, demand is expected to soften as construction activity typically slows in colder regions, though it may remain stable in warmer climates. Furthermore, demand for HDPE agricultural films is projected to decrease, except in areas with winter crop cycles or regions with year-round agricultural activity.

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is your trusted resource for tracking global high-density polyethylene price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the high-density polyethylene market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

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Track 's high-density polyethylene price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in high-density polyethylene prices

Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown (2023–Present): In 2023, global inflation driven by high energy costs and supply chain constraints raised production costs for HDPE. Simultaneously, economic slowdowns and high inflation in key regions such as the Eurozone reduced consumer spending, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors. As a result, HDPE prices faced downward pressure despite increased input costs, reflecting weaker overall demand.

Slowing Global Economy and Rising Crude Oil Prices (2019): In 2019, geopolitical tensions, particularly the attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, led to rising crude oil prices, which in turn increased feedstock Ethylene costs. However, a simultaneous global economic slowdown reduced demand for HDPE, especially in construction and consumer goods sectors. This combination of higher production costs and weakened demand caused mixed price movements, with HDPE prices rising initially before stabilizing later in the year.

Crude Oil Price Collapse (2015–2016): The global collapse in crude oil prices during 2015–2016, driven by oversupply and OPEC’s decision to maintain production, caused a sharp decline in oil prices. Since Ethylene, the primary feedstock for HDPE, is derived from Naphtha (a Crude Oil by-product), production costs decreased significantly. Consequently, HDPE prices dropped considerably during this period, reflecting the lower input costs across global markets.

Methodology and Specifications

high-density polyethylene Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data: aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions.

On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major HDPE production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics.

Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire HDPE supply chain, from raw material availability (e.g., Ethylene) to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock Ethylene prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact HDPE prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing.

Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on HDPE production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the U.S. Gulf Coast. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks.

Economic Shifts: evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., automotive, packaging), to predict shifts in HDPE demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global HDPE production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately.

Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming HDPE production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: provides in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments.

Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global HDPE pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast HDPE prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power.

Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.

Ongoing Support: offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable HDPE pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

10,000 to 250,000 g/mol

CAS No

9002-88-4

HS Code

390120

Molecular Formula

(C₂H₄)ₙ

high-density polyethylene

High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) is a robust, durable thermoplastic polymer made from ethylene polymerization. With a high strength-to-density ratio, HDPE has a more rigid structure than other Polyethylenes, giving it excellent tensile strength and impact resistance. Common applications include plastic bottles, pipes, geomembranes, and containers, and it is widely used in construction and automotive industries. Resistant to chemicals, moisture, and extreme temperatures, HDPE is processed by extrusion, injection moulding, and blow moulding. Its recyclability contributes to sustainability efforts.

Packaging Type

25 Kg Bag

Grades Covered

Film Grade, Injection Moulding Grade

Incoterms Used

FOB Houston, CIF Manzanillo (USA), CIF Santos (USA), FD Antwerp, FD Genoa, FD Hamburg, FD Le Havre, FOB Jeddah, CIF Nhava Sheva (Saudi Arabia), CIF Shanghai (Saudi Arabia)

Synonym

HDPE, High-Density PE

Quotation Terms:

25-28 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property	Specification (Film Grade)	Specification (Injection Moulding Grade)
Melt Flow Index	0.05gm/10 min	8gm/10 min
Vicat Softening Point	125⁰C	128⁰C
Dart Impact	180gm	–
Yield Stress	31-33 MPa	33MPa
Density	952 Kg/m3	964 Kg/m3
Melting Temperature	200-235⁰C	110-130⁰C

Applications

High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) is widely used across various industries due to its strength, durability, and resistance to chemicals and moisture. In the packaging sector, HDPE is a popular choice for plastic bottles, containers, and grocery bags. In construction, it’s used for pipes, geomembranes, and cable insulation, benefiting from its weather resistance and longevity. Automotive applications include fuel tanks, coolant bottles, and ductwork. Additionally, HDPE’s recyclability and eco-friendly properties make it a preferred material in sustainable product design, from reusable bags to outdoor furniture.

Disclaimer

High-Density Polyethylene price provided by is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for high-density polyethylene. disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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Frequently asked questions

What factors influence the price of High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)? +

HDPE prices are primarily influenced by the cost of Ethylene, derived from Crude Oil and Naphtha. Other key factors include supply and demand dynamics, with increased demand from industries like packaging and construction driving prices up, while oversupply reduces them. Logistics issues, such as shipping disruptions or high freight rates, and regional market conditions, including economic growth and local regulations, also play a role in HDPE pricing.

How can procurement managers secure the best price for HDPE? +

Procurement managers can secure the best HDPE prices by monitoring global market trends, locking in long-term contracts to mitigate price volatility, and buying in bulk to negotiate better rates. Diversifying suppliers across different regions can also provide leverage and reduce risk, ensuring more competitive pricing.

How do global events affect HDPE prices? +

Global events like geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and economic shifts can significantly impact HDPE prices. Rising crude oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or reduced demand from economic slowdowns can drive prices up or down, making it essential for procurement managers to stay informed and anticipate market shifts.