High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Price Trend and Forecast

High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Price Trend Q1 2025

In Q1 2025, FOB Houston Injection Moulding Grade prices remained almost flat, dipping by just 0.1% to USD 901/MT, amid balanced supply and cautious buying sentiment. However, FD Antwerp Injection Moulding Grade prices rose by 4.8% to USD 1,192/MT, supported by strong restocking activities, a healthier trading atmosphere after the New Year, and recovering demand in packaging and industrial applications. Similarly, Film Grade FOB Jeddah prices increased by 2.2%, backed by firm regional demand and improved market confidence during the first quarter.

High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Price Trend Q2 2025

According to the Price-Watch™, the US HDPE Film Grade market experienced a 0.6% increase in prices during Q2, 2025. The average price for the quarter was recorded at USD 1230 per metric ton. This price trend in the US HDPE market is primarily driven by strong demand from the packaging and agricultural sectors.

Seasonal demand for packaging materials, particularly for summer-related products and increased agricultural activities, has also contributed to the upward price movement. Factors like tighter supply chains, rising production costs, and limited availability of raw materials have added additional pressure on prices.

Additionally, in the last month of the quarter, upstream Crude Oil prices saw a significant increase, which further impacted the production costs of HDPE, leading to a rise in product prices. The US HDPE market is experiencing gradual price growth, expected to continue in the near term, as demand remains strong and external factors influence market dynamics.

High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Price Trend Q3 2025

The global High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) price trend during Q3 2025 has witnessed mixed regional dynamics. In the USA and North America, the HDPE price trend has shown a weak upwards movement because of firm demand in agriculture and packaging. On the contrary, in Europe, HDPE price trend declined because of excessive supply and weakening demand from major industries.

Asia has shown a mixed trend, with China experiencing a mild price drop owing to poor demand, whereas India has seen small price hikes fuelled by strong demand from the packaging industry and firm local supply. In Latin America, Brazil has experienced a declining price trend based on poor domestic consumption and heavy import competition.

Meanwhile, the Middle East and Africa have held firm prices, supported by solid demand from infrastructure activities. The worldwide trend in the price of HDPE during Q3 2025 has been influenced by a combination of supply-demand and regional market drivers.

Mexico: HDPE Import prices CIF Manzanillo, Mexico from USA, Grade Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 20).

The HDPE price trend in Mexico has decreased by 0.3% during Q3 2025. Subdued demand in the packaging sector and a sufficient supply of material have led to lower procurement activities. HDPE prices in Mexico have experienced a significant drop of 5.4% in September 2025 compared to August, largely driven by weaker ethylene prices, which have reduced production costs. The availability of imported resins from Asia has also increased supply pressure.

Domestic converters have focused on existing inventories, resulting in reduced fresh buying. As a result, the overall HDPE price trend in Mexico has remained under pressure. Market participants have been cautious, awaiting stability in crude oil prices and feedstock costs. The HDPE price trend may stabilize once inventories normalize and seasonal demand resumes, although short-term weakness has persisted.

Germany: HDPE Domestically Traded prices FD Hamburg, Germany, Grade Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 11-20).

In Germany, the HDPE price trend for injection moulding grade (MFI: 11–20) under FD Hamburg has decreased by approximately 3.8% during Q3 2025. This downward price trend has primarily been attributed to weak demand from packaging, automotive, and household goods sectors.

HDPE prices in Germany have continued to fall by 4.1% in September, mainly due to reduced feedstock costs from ethylene prices. Ample supply and lower purchasing activity among traders have added to the bearish market sentiment.

Imports from other European regions and Asia have contributed to a well-supplied market, leading to further downward pressure. Despite the market’s bearish tone, a potential recovery may have occurred if downstream demand had strengthened or production cuts had been implemented. The current HDPE price trend reflects caution, with traders waiting for more favourable conditions.

Italy: HDPE Domestically Traded prices FD Genoa, Italy, Grade Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 11-20).

In Italy, the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) price trend for injection moulding grade (MFI: 11–20) under FD Genoa has decreased by 3.7% during Q3 2025. Weak demand from packaging and automotive sectors and ample availability in the European market have resulted in declining prices. By September 2025, HDPE prices in Italy have decreased by 4.1% compared to August, largely due to lower ethylene costs and an influx of imports from the EU and Asia.

The competitive market conditions have forced suppliers to lower prices in an attempt to clear excess stock. Buyers have been cautious, focusing on short-term procurement and avoiding long-term contracts. The overall market sentiment has been weak, with any potential recovery hinging on an uptick in downstream consumption or a tightening of regional supply. The HDPE price trend in Italy remains under pressure, with no immediate signs of stabilization.

France: HDPE Domestically Traded prices FD Le Havre, France, Grade Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 11-20).

The High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) price trend in Le Havre, France, during Q3 2025 has indicated a 3.7% decrease, driven by low demand from key sectors such as automotive and packaging. This downward price trend has been attributed to ample availability in the domestic market and reduced buying activity.

HDPE prices in France have further dropped by 4.0% in September 2025 compared to August, primarily due to a significant decrease in ethylene prices, which have reduced production costs and supported downward pressure on High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) price trend. Increased imports from other regions, including the Middle East and Asia, have further contributed to competitive market conditions.

Despite some disruptions related to hurricane preparedness, the European HDPE price trend has remained sluggish. With subdued downstream demand, the HDPE price trend in France may continue to weaken if the recovery from end-users remains slow. Close market monitoring has been necessary.

India: HDPE Domestically Traded prices Ex-Ahmedabad Depot, India, Grade Blow Moulding Grade FDA (MFI: 1.5).

According to the PriceWatch, the HDPE price trend in Ahmedabad, India, during Q3 2025 has shown an upward movement of 2.9%. This increase has primarily been driven by higher demand from the packaging sector, especially in food and beverage applications. The tight supply environment, exacerbated by limited domestic production, has played a key role in pushing prices higher.

However, by September, the HDPE prices in India have experienced a slight decrease of 1.5% due to weak downstream demand, cautious pre-Diwali purchasing, and ample supply in the domestic market. The availability of competitive imports from Southeast Asia has also added downward pressure.

Despite this short-term correction, the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) price trend in India is expected to stabilize as festive demand resumes and imports ease. However, the market remains dynamic, and future price trends will depend on seasonal procurement patterns and supply chain developments.

China: HDPE Domestically Traded prices Ex-Nanjing, China, Grade Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 7–8).

The HDPE price trend in Nanjing, China, for Q3 2025 has shown a marginal decrease of 0.3%, driven by weak demand from the downstream packaging and construction industries. Reduced procurement activities have led to a subdued market, despite stable supply conditions. In September 2025, HDPE prices in China have slightly increased by 0.2% compared to August 2025, supported by a mild rise in ethylene prices.

However, the overall sentiment has remained weak due to sluggish demand, especially from the greenhouse film segment. Regional challenges, such as temporary plant shutdowns, have created minor tightness, but they have been insufficient to significantly alter the price trend.

United States: HDPE Export prices FOB Houston, USA, Grade Blown Film Grade (MFI: 0.03-1.0).

According to the PriceWatch, the price trend of High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) in the USA throughout Q3 2025 has shown a 0.9% rise based on steady demand from the packaging industry, especially for usage in blown film. Seasonal buying and limited supply constraints have given the requisite push towards price hikes. Yet, in September 2025, US High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) prices have fallen by 4.1% from August, primarily as a result of a steep decline in ethylene prices, which have lowered the cost support for polymer manufacturers.

Elevated inventory levels and soft downstream demand have also put downward pressure. Building hurricane preparation stocks has skewed near-term market trends towards excess supply. The HDPE price trend in Houston can continue to be weak unless demand from the packaging and film industries improves, compelling buyers to strategically manage procurement.

Brazil: HDPE Import prices CIF Santos, Brazil from USA, Grade Blown Film Grade (MFI: 0.03-1.0).

In Brazil, the price trend of HDPE in Q3 2025 has decreased by 2.8% due to lower consumption from household items and packaging industries. Local converters have pursued a defensive buying strategy due to competitive local imports from Mexico and the USA. Even with steady local production from Braskem, the general Latin American trend in the price of HDPE has come under pressure from weak demand as well as constrained export prospects.

In September 2025, HDPE prices in Brazil have fallen 1.9% from August, mainly driven by the lower US imports. The downward trend in feedstock ethylene prices has also affected market sentiment, further reducing the cost of production. Although the local market has been stable, the trend in the price of HDPE in Brazil has continued to be threatened by good availability and poor export demand. Prices could stabilize if purchasing activity increases towards the latter part of the year.

Belgium: HDPE Domestically Traded prices FD Antwerp, Belgium, Grade Blow Moulding Grade FDA (MFI: 0.2-2.5).

According to Price-Watch, The price trend of High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) in Antwerp, Belgium, in Q3 2025 has faced a declining trend of 3.3%, mainly caused by weaker buying interest in the packaging and chemical container markets. Local suppliers have also experienced pressure on margins because of weak demand from domestic as well as Western European markets.

The average price band of HDPE Blow Moulding Grade FDA (MFI: 0.2-2.5) has been USD 1010-1020 throughout this quarter. As of September 2025, HDPE prices in Belgium have dropped by a further 3.9% from August on the back of declining ethylene and crude prices, weakening support to costs of production.

Dovetailing with this has been surplus local material and aggressive imports from the Middle East, which has put pressure on prices. Buyers have also been apprehensive about further downtrends. In spite of some temporary relief from maintenance work at certain European crackers, overall HDPE price trend in Belgium has remained on the downtrend. Except in the event of a resurgence in seasonal demand, prices are likely to remain under pressure.

Saudi Arabia: HDPE Export prices FOB Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Grade Blow Moulding Grade FDA (MFI: 0.3-0.4).

In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the HDPE price trend during Q3 2025 has shown a downward movement of 2.1%, reflecting steady domestic production and weak export demand. Local producers have maintained high operating rates, leading to surplus supply and downward pressure on export offers. HDPE prices in Saudi Arabia have decreased by 3.4% in September 2025 compared to August, primarily driven by reduced ethylene prices and weaker regional buying activity.

The lack of export demand from Africa and Southeast Asia has further pressured the market. Moderate consumption in the domestic packaging sector has also contributed to inventory buildup. The HDPE price trend in Saudi Arabia may stabilize if regional buying interest recovers and crude oil price fluctuations subside.

South Korea: HDPE Export prices FOB Busan, South Korea, Grade Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 0.035-0.045).

The HDPE price trend in Busan, South Korea, during Q3 2025 has shown a decrease of 1.7%, following persistent regional demand weakness and ample supply. Domestic producers have continued to export actively to balance inventory levels. By September 2025, HDPE prices in South Korea have decreased by 2.6% compared to August, mainly due to lower ethylene prices and weak export demand.

Despite stable domestic production, competitive global offers from countries like China and Southeast Asia have pressured export margins. The packaging and industrial film sectors have experienced moderate activity, further contributing to soft market conditions. The overall HDPE price trend in South Korea remains bearish, with prices likely to stay under mild pressure until demand improves from key importing nations.

Vietnam: HDPE Import prices CIF Haiphong, Vietnam from Saudi Arabia, Grade Blow Moulding Grade FDA (MFI: 0.3-0.4).

In Vietnam, the HDPE price trend during Q3 2025 has shown an upward movement of 2.5%, primarily driven by steady demand in the packaging sector and limited import arrivals. Increased consumption from flexible film converters and stable manufacturing activity has supported higher procurement activity.

In September 2025, High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) prices in Vietnam have increased by 1.3% compared to August due to improved downstream demand and tighter availability from key exporting countries like South Korea and Saudi Arabia.

The onset of festive packaging demand has also contributed to the upward price movement. The HDPE market trend in Vietnam may continue to see modest price increases in the short term, as balanced fundamentals and stronger seasonal demand provide support to the price trend.

High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Price Trend Q4 2025

The last quarter of 2025 saw falling HDPE prices around the world, with reductions varying from 2.8% in India to an aggressive 13.2% in Belgium. The fall in prices is mainly driven by weak demand for downstream industries, such as packaging, construction, and FMCG.

Supply in the markets is sufficient due to stable manufacturing levels and import flows, while weak prices of raw materials like ethylene and crude oil do not give any support to prices. Nevertheless, December witnessed a minor rebound in prices in most regions (excluding China and India) due to temporary plant shutdowns and year-end restocking.

Mexico: HDPE Import prices CIF Manzanillo, Mexico from USA; Grade – Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 20)

HDPE prices in Mexico experienced a decrease of 8.8% in Q4 2025, mainly because of low demand from end-use markets and steady imports from the US. The packaging and automotive industries have exhibited gradual improvement, but purchasers have adopted a conservative buying approach.

Ethylene feedstock prices have been moderate, and crude oil prices have been stable, thereby restraining any potential increases. This pessimistic view is echoed by HDPE prices in Mexico and the general HDPE price trend in Mexico. Nonetheless, during the final month of the quarter, in December 2025, HDPE prices in Mexico witnessed a rise of 4.1% on monthly basis.

Germany: HDPE Domestically Traded prices FD Hamburg, Germany; Grade – Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 11-20)

According to Price-Watch™, HDPE price in Germany experienced a strong drop of 10% during Q4 2025, mainly as a result of poor downstream demand coming from packaging and FMCG industries against an unfavorable environment of poor industrial performance in Europe.

There is sufficient supply of the material in the region owing to steady output from cracker plants and constant inflows through imports. Prices of the feedstock ethylene decreased owing to stable supply-demand dynamics, whereas crude oil stayed rangebound, which do not offer support in terms of costs.

Competitive imports from both the US and Asia also affected domestic prices unfavorably. The negative sentiment is clear from HDPE prices in Germany and prevailing HDPE price trends in Germany. Nonetheless, at the end of the quarter, in December 2025, HDPE prices in Germany rose by 2.3%.

Italy: HDPE Domestically Traded prices FD Genoa, Italy; Grade – Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 11-20)

HDPE prices in Italy witnessed a steep fall of 10% in Q4 2025, driven mainly by the absence of sufficient demand from end-user industries such as packaging and FMCG due to lackluster manufacturing operations in Europe.

The presence of ample local supplies, backed by consistent plant utilization and imports, resulted in excess supply. Feedstock ethylene prices came under downward pressure due to balanced supply-demand dynamics, whereas crude oil prices are rangebound, failing to provide any support.

Competitive imports from the United States and Asia further put downward pressure on local prices. Such negative sentiment is evident through HDPE prices in Italy and current HDPE price trend in Italy, implying limited buying interest. Conversely, towards the end of the period, in December 2025, HDPE prices in Italy rose by 2.3%, buoyed by restocking demand and upstream feedstock ethylene costs.

France: HDPE Domestically Traded prices FD Le Havre, France; Grade – Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 11-20)

According to Price-Watch™, in Q4 2025, HDPE prices in France saw a significant drop of 10% because of poor end-user consumption from the packaging and FMCG industries owing to the slowdown in Europe’s industrial operations.

With ample availability of local supplies, coupled with stable cracker output and reliable imports, excess inventory emerged. Ethylene feedstock prices are soft owing to favorable supply and demand conditions, although crude oil prices are range-bound and provided minimal pricing support.

Moreover, fierce competition from imported grades from the US and Asia impacted domestic prices negatively. Such pessimism is also reflected in HDPE prices in France and the HDPE price trend in France, suggesting low purchase levels.

On the contrary, in December 2025, HDPE prices in France rose by 2.3% on account of replenishment demand, constrained supplies amid plant outages, and slightly improved ethylene upstream costs.

India: HDPE Domestically Traded prices Ex-Ahmedabad Depot, India; Grade – Blow Moulding Grade FDA (MFI: 1.5)

The HDPE price in India fell by 2.8% during the fourth quarter of 2025, owing to stable demand along with sufficient domestic and foreign supplies. The demand from the packaging industry and the FMCG segment continued to be stable; however, there is no sign of growth in terms of demand.

While ethylene feedstock prices are stable, crude oil prices are stable as well, offering little support for costs. Besides, steady imports from the Middle East region ensured adequate supply.

This is evident from the HDPE price trend in India as well as HDPE pricing in India in general. In the final month of the quarter, that is, in December 2025, HDPE price in India dropped by 0.5%.

China: HDPE Domestically Traded prices Ex-Nanjing, China; Grade – Raffia Grade (MFR: 0.8-1.0) Ex-Nanjing

During Q4 2025, HDPE prices in China declined by 4.8%, primarily due to subdued demand from woven sack and packaging industries, coupled with sufficient domestic production. High operating rates among Chinese producers and inventory accumulation reduced procurement urgency.

Feedstock ethylene prices remained stable due to balanced supply, while crude oil volatility is limited, offering minimal cost-side support. Export competitiveness also weakened due to global demand slowdown.

This trend is reflected in HDPE prices in China and the ongoing HDPE price trend in China, indicating an oversupplied market. Similarly, in the last month of the quarter, in December 2025, HDPE prices in China decreased by 3.6%, as demand remained weak and inventories stayed elevated.

USA: HDPE Export prices FOB Houston, USA; Grade – Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 20) FOB Houston

During Q4 2025, HDPE prices in the USA declined by 9.4%, primarily due to subdued demand from key downstream sectors such as packaging and construction, along with sufficient domestic supply and weak export opportunities.

Feedstock ethylene prices remained under pressure amid ample availability, while fluctuations in crude oil further impacted production economics. The overall bearish sentiment is reflected in HDPE prices in the USA and the prevailing HDPE price trend in the USA, which indicated a well-supplied market with limited buying momentum.

Similarly, in the last month of the quarter, in December 2025, HDPE prices in the USA increased by 4.4%, driven by short-term restocking activity and slight supply tightening due to plant maintenance, along with marginal improvement in feedstock and energy costs.

Brazil: HDPE Import prices CIF Santos, Brazil from USA; Grade – Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 20)

During Q4 2025, HDPE prices in Brazil declined by 9.2%, mainly due to weak downstream demand and steady import inflows from the US, which ensured sufficient availability. Packaging and construction sectors showed muted consumption, while buyers adopted cautious procurement strategies amid economic uncertainty.

Feedstock ethylene prices remained soft due to adequate global supply, and crude oil fluctuations are limited, providing minimal cost support. This bearish environment is reflected in HDPE prices in Brazil and the broader HDPE price trend in Brazil, indicating oversupply conditions.

However, in the last month of the quarter, in December 2025, HDPE prices in Brazil increased by 4.1%, supported by restocking demand, improved import parity, and slight tightening in cargo arrivals.

Belgium: HDPE Domestically Traded prices FD Antwerp, Belgium; Grade – Blow Moulding Grade FDA (MFI: 0.2-2.5)

During Q4 2025, HDPE prices in Belgium declined sharply by 13.2%, primarily due to weak downstream demand from packaging and FMCG sectors amid sluggish European industrial activity.

Adequate regional supply, supported by steady cracker operating rates and consistent import flows, created oversupply pressure. Feedstock ethylene prices softened due to balanced supply-demand fundamentals, while crude oil remained rangebound, limiting cost support.

Additionally, competitive imports from the US and Asia weighed on domestic pricing. This bearish sentiment is reflected in HDPE prices in Belgium and the prevailing HDPE price trend in Belgium, indicating subdued procurement activity.

However, in the last month of the quarter, in December 2025, HDPE prices in Belgium increased by 3.8%, supported by restocking demand, temporary supply tightening due to maintenance shutdowns, and slight recovery in upstream ethylene costs.

Saudi Arabia: HDPE Export prices FOB Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Grade – Blow Moulding Grade FDA (MFI: 0.3-0.4)

During Q4 2025, HDPE prices in Saudi Arabia declined by 4.9%, primarily due to stable production levels and moderate export demand across Asia and Africa. Regional producers maintained high operating rates, leading to sufficient supply availability in the market.

Additionally, subdued downstream demand from packaging and industrial sectors, along with competitive global pricing, exerted downward pressure. Feedstock ethane-based production economics remained relatively stable, while crude oil price fluctuations provided limited support to polymer prices.

This market scenario is reflected in HDPE prices in Saudi Arabia and the broader HDPE price trend in Saudi Arabia, indicating a balanced-to-oversupplied market. Similarly, in the last month of the quarter, in December 2025, HDPE prices in Saudi Arabia decreased by 1.4%, due to weak export inquiries and steady supply availability.

South Korea: HDPE Export prices FOB Busan, South Korea; Grade – Injection Moulding Grade (MFI: 0.035-0.045)

During Q4 2025, HDPE prices in South Korea declined by 3.2%, mainly due to weak export demand and sufficient regional supply. Key downstream sectors such as packaging and consumer goods showed subdued activity, while buyers maintained cautious procurement strategies amid uncertain economic conditions.

Feedstock naphtha and ethylene prices remained relatively stable, with limited support from crude oil fluctuations. Additionally, competitive pricing from Middle Eastern and US suppliers pressured domestic producers.

This trend is reflected in HDPE prices in South Korea and the prevailing HDPE price trend in South Korea, indicating a soft demand environment. Similarly, in the last month of the quarter, in December 2025, HDPE prices in South Korea decreased slightly by 0.2%, due to continued weak buying interest and sufficient supply.

Vietnam: HDPE Import prices CIF Haiphong, Vietnam from Saudi Arabia; Grade – Blow Moulding Grade FDA (MFI: 0.3-0.4)

During Q4 2025, HDPE prices in Vietnam declined by 6.1%, primarily due to weak downstream demand from packaging and industrial sectors, along with sufficient import availability from the Middle East and South Korea.

Buyers remained cautious amid adequate inventory levels and stable supply conditions. Feedstock ethylene prices remained soft, while crude oil trends are relatively stable, limiting cost-side support. Additionally, competitive pricing from regional suppliers further pressured the market.

This is reflected in HDPE prices in Vietnam and the broader HDPE price trend in Vietnam, indicating a subdued market environment. Similarly, in the last month of the quarter, in December 2025, HDPE prices in Vietnam decreased by 1.3%, due to weak buying sentiment and continued supply sufficiency.