methanol Pricing Assessment

Markets Covered:

Netherlands

Saudi Arabia

United States

Belgium

China

Germany

India

Japan

Mexico

Singapore

Korea

Thailand

United Kingdom

Methanol Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In Q1 2024, the global Methanol market experienced a bearish trend, particularly in the Middle East. In Saudi Arabia, Methanol prices were reported at $261/MT, reflecting a 10.31% decrease from the previous quarter. This decline was mainly attributed to an abundant supply in the region and lower demand from key sectors such as Formaldehyde and Acetic Acid. Despite steady demand in the Automotive and Construction sectors, the Methanol market was heavily impacted by weak feedstock prices and disruptions in international trade, which put downward pressure on prices across major markets like the Netherlands and the USA.

In Q2 2024, Methanol prices in Saudi Arabia saw a slight rebound, increasing by 1.53% to $265/MT. This positive shift was driven by growing demand from the Fuel Blending sector and rising production activity in key industries such as Plastics and Chemicals. Additionally, improving global supply chains and a 7.4% increase in container port volumes contributed to the price increase. In the USA and Europe, Methanol prices showed some volatility due to supply chain constraints, but overall demand remained robust, particularly from the Energy sector.

By Q3 August 2024, Methanol prices in Saudi Arabia had slightly decreased again, falling to $252/MT, a 0.40% decline from July. The price drop was mainly caused by abundant global supply, slower demand growth, and ongoing logistical challenges, particularly in Asian markets. Global production capacity utilization increased, but weak demand from downstream industries, such as Biodiesel and Formaldehyde, limited price recovery. Market fluctuations were also impacted by congestion at major ports and rising freight costs, which added to the instability.

Looking ahead to Q4 2024, the Methanol market is expected to face continued pressure. Strong demand from the Packaging and Fuel Blending sectors, particularly in anticipation of the holiday season, may create upward momentum in prices. However, increasing feedstock costs, particularly for natural gas, which is a key input for Methanol production, could limit any significant price increases. Additionally, shifts in government policies, such as those related to carbon emissions and clean energy initiatives, could affect Methanol demand in sectors like Fuel Blending. The global Methanol market will likely remain highly volatile, with market behaviour shaped by regional production capacities, trade dynamics, and global economic conditions.

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is your trusted resource for tracking global methanol price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the methanol market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With , you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence methanol prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with ’s reliable, accurate, and timely methanol market data.

Track 's methanol price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in methanol prices

Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022-Present): The conflict disrupted global energy markets, particularly in Europe, leading to higher feedstock costs and volatility in Methanol prices due to limited natural gas supplies.

COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): Initially, Methanol demand dropped sharply due to lockdowns and reduced industrial activity. However, demand rebounded as industries like plastics and fuel blending surged, leading to price fluctuations.

U.S.-China Trade War (2018-2019): Tariffs and supply chain disruptions caused instability in the global Methanol market, with both production and trade volumes impacted, especially between two of the largest global players.

Shale Gas Boom in the U.S. (2015-2020): Increased availability of low-cost natural gas feedstock in the U.S. led to reduced production costs, driving down Methanol prices globally during this period.

These events illustrate how the Methanol market is highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, global energy dynamics, and disruptions in supply and demand, making it essential to monitor ongoing market trends and developments.

Methodology and Specifications

methanol Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data: aggregates real-time pricing data from a wide range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our Methanol price assessments reflect the most up-to-date market conditions.

On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users in major Methanol production hubs. This on-the-ground intelligence is crucial for understanding local market dynamics.

Supply Chain Monitoring: We closely track the entire Methanol supply chain, from the availability of raw materials like natural gas and coal to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and logistics, ensuring a comprehensive view of the supply chain.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: continuously monitors global geopolitical events, such as trade disputes, energy crises, and regional conflicts, which can have a significant impact on Methanol prices. Our analysis focuses on potential disruptions to supply chains, particularly in key production regions like the Middle East, and their effect on global pricing.

Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of climate events such as hurricanes, winter storms, and heatwaves on Methanol production, especially in areas like the U.S. Gulf Coast and China. These events are integrated into our price forecasts to account for potential supply disruptions.

Energy Market Fluctuations: Since Methanol production is closely tied to the energy sector, evaluates the impact of global energy price shifts, including natural gas and crude oil fluctuations, on Methanol production costs and overall market pricing.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global Methanol production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This helps us accurately assess current supply availability and identify potential bottlenecks.

Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming Methanol production capacities, accounting for new plant constructions, expansions, and technological innovations. These insights help predict future supply trends and any potential price stabilization or increases.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: offers in-depth analysis of Methanol demand across key sectors, including fuel blending, formaldehyde production, and the plastics industry. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and sectoral developments.

Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology also considers regional demand variations and their influence on global Methanol pricing. This includes understanding shifts in manufacturing bases, changes in trade policies, and the impact of environmental regulations on Methanol consumption.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: uses advanced econometric models to forecast Methanol prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continually refined to ensure accuracy and enhance predictive capabilities.

Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of possible market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of the factors driving the Methanol market. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations.

Ongoing Support: offers continuous updates and personalized support to ensure our clients have access to the latest market information. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice based on client needs.

This research methodology ensures that delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Methanol pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make well-informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

32.04

CAS No

67-56-1

HS Code

290511

Molecular Formula

CH₃OH

methanol

Methanol, also known as methyl alcohol, is a clear, colourless, and volatile liquid primarily used as a feedstock in the production of chemicals like formaldehyde, acetic acid, and plastics. It is also an important component in fuel blending and is used in biodiesel production. Methanol is derived from natural gas or coal, and its versatility makes it a key material in various industrial processes, including energy and transportation.

Packaging Type

Drum (200 LTR) (Import-Export-Domestic), Tanker (Import-Export-Domestic)

Grades Covered

Purity: >99% (Normal, Bulk, Retail)

Incoterms Used

Netherlands (Contract), FD Rotterdam (Spot), FOB Jeddah, USA (Contract), FOB Louisiana (Spot), FD Antwerp (Netherlands), China (Contract), CFR China, CIF Shanghai (Saudi Arabia), Ex-Qingdao Hamburg, CIF Nhava Sheva (Saudi Arabia), Ex-Ahmedabad, Ex-Mumbai, CIF Tokyo (Saudi Arabia), CIF Manzanillo (USA), CIF Port of Singapore (Saudi Arabia), CIF Busan (Saudi Arabia, USA), CIF Laem Chabang (Saudi Arabia), CIF Southampton (Netherlands)

Synonym

Methyl Alcohol, Wood Alcohol, Carbinol, Methyl Hydroxide, Wood Spirit.

Quotation Terms:

25-30 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

ITEM	METHOD	UNITS	SPECIFICATIONS	RESULTS
ITEM	METHOD	UNITS	SPECIFICATIONS	2001 B
Appearance	IMPCA 003	Visual	CFSM	CFSM
Purity on Dry Basis	IMPCA 001	% m/m	Min. 99.85	>99.95
Ethanol	IMPCA 001	mg/Kg	Max. 50	18
Acetone	IMPCA 001	mg/Kg	Max. 30	<5
Colour Pt-Co	ASTM D 1209	Pt-Co	Max. S	‹5
Water Content	ASTM E 1064	% m/m	Max. 0.1	0.005
IBP	ASTM D 1078	°C	Max. 1.0°C to include 64.6° +/- 0.1°	64.4
FBP				64.6
Distillation Range				0.2
Specific Gravity @ 20/20°	ASTM D 4052		0.791 – 0.793	0.7927
Density @ 15°C	ASTM D 4052	kg/L		0.7959
Permanganate Fade Time	ASTM D 1363	Minutes	Min. 60	90
Chloride	IMPCA 002	mg/kg	Max. 0.5	<0.25
Sulphur Content	ASTM D 5453	mg/kg	Max. 0.5	<0.5
Hydrocarbons	ASTM D 1722		Pass Test	Pass
Carbonizable Substance	ASTM E 346	Pt-Co	Max. 30	<30
Acidity as Acetic Acid	ASTM D 1613	ppm (m/m)	Max. 30	10
Iron	ASTM E 394	mg/kg	Max. 0.1	0.02
Non-Volatile Matter	ASTM D 1353	mg/L	Max. 8	0.2

Applications

Methanol is primarily used as a feedstock to produce various chemicals, including formaldehyde, acetic acid, and methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE). It is also widely used in fuel blending, biodiesel production, and as a solvent in industrial processes. Additionally, Methanol plays a key role in the manufacturing of plastics, adhesives, and pharmaceuticals.

Disclaimer

Methanol price provided by is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for methanol. disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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Frequently asked questions

What factors influence methanol prices in the global market? +

Methanol prices are influenced by various factors, including the cost of natural gas, which serves as the primary feedstock for methanol production. Fluctuations in natural gas prices, geopolitical tensions, and changes in energy policies can significantly affect methanol pricing. Additionally, supply chain disruptions, demand from end-use industries such as chemicals, plastics, and automotive, and seasonal variations in consumption all play a crucial role in determining methanol prices. Procurement heads should stay informed about these market dynamics to make strategic purchasing decisions.

How do shifts in production capacity impact methanol pricing trends? +

Production capacity shifts, driven by new methanol plant constructions or closures, directly affect the supply side of the market. When new plants come online or existing plants expand their output, it can lead to increased methanol availability, potentially driving prices down. Conversely, plant shutdowns due to maintenance or regulatory compliance can lead to supply shortages and price increases. Procurement professionals should closely monitor announcements related to production capacity changes and adjust their sourcing strategies accordingly to capitalize on favorable pricing conditions.

What are the key regional price differences for methanol, and how should they inform procurement strategies? +

Regional price differences for methanol arise from variations in production costs, transportation expenses, and local market demand. For instance, regions with abundant natural gas supplies, such as the United States and the Middle East, often enjoy lower methanol prices compared to regions reliant on imports. Additionally, environmental regulations and tariffs can also impact regional pricing. Procurement teams should conduct thorough market analyses to identify cost-competitive sourcing opportunities across regions, allowing for optimized purchasing strategies that align with their organization's financial objectives.