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Palladium Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 12141733
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âźł Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026
  • Commodity Pricing

palladium Price Trends by Country

usUnited States

Global palladium Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

Price-Watch’s most active coverage of Palladium price assessment:

  • Purity 99.95% Spot Price Weekly Closing , Global

Palladium Price Trend Q3 2025

Palladium prices reportedly increased by 19% in Q3 2025 from the previous quarter, as global supply concerns fueled significant risk-based premiums in palladium pricing. Q3 2025’s gains have been one of the biggest quarter-to-quarter price increases in several years. Supply concerns in Russia and South Africa, two of the largest palladium-producing regions in the world, contributed to the price increases.

Geopolitical tensions over the Ukraine-Russian military conflict and renewed trade negotiations with proposed US tariffs on Russian palladium also escalated already heightened concerns about global supplies potentially becoming even tighter than they currently were.

Additionally, South African mine production faced challenges due to labor strikes and power issues, further hindering production capabilities. Moreover, while car sales improved in the global automotive sector, new emissions compliance regulations installed an incentive for manufacturers to continue palladium use in catalytic converters.

Global Palladium (XPD/USD)

According to PriceWatch, the palladium price trend in the third quarter of 2025 displayed solid bullish momentum, with prices climbing approximately 20% from the second quarter, driven primarily by tightening supply and consistent industrial demand. The influence of geopolitical tension and possible trade barriers especially the US tariffs on Russian Palladium led to fears of reduced availability globally and increased buying pressure from investors and industry alike.

Additionally, African mines continued to deal with operational challenges comprising of labor unrest and energy shortages that continued to constrain production. Supply side issues compounded with consistent automotive demand, which has been boosted by stricter emission standards harmonizing the use of palladium within catalytic converters.

Investor sentiment has been further boosted by a slight rebound in speculative interest and a weaker U.S. dollar environment. Palladium prices increased by 4% in September 2025 alone, enhancing sentiment for the upward movement of the metal.

Palladium Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

According to the PriceWatch, Palladium prices saw a notable increase in Q2 2025, rising by $988 per ounce, equivalent to a 1.23% gain. This upward movement can be attributed to several key factors. Supply constraints from major producing countries such as Russia and South Africa continued to pressure the global palladium market, while ongoing geopolitical tensions added further uncertainty to supply chains. On the demand side, increased consumption from the automotive sector particularly for use in catalytic converters amid stricter global emissions standards supported the price rally. 

In Q1 2025, palladium prices declined by 3.69%, settling at $975 per ounce (Spot Price Weekly closing). The drop reflected renewed concerns over soft demand from the auto sector and continued market substitute trends. Lower industrial activity in major economies and stable mine output maintained downward pressure.

Investor sentiment remained cautious, with many viewings palladium as less attractive compared to other precious metals amid evolving technological and policy shifts. 

Palladium Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

Palladium prices staged a moderate rebound in Q4 2024, climbing by 4.83% to $1,013 per ounce (Spot Price Weekly closing). The recovery was underpinned by seasonal automotive demand and a temporary tightening of supply due to disruptions in key mining regions. A weaker dollar and bargain-hunting by investors also helped lift prices. However, long-term structural headwinds, including EV adoption and substitution with platinum, remained a concern. 

Prices slipped again in Q3 2024, registering a 1.70% decline to $966 per ounce (Spot Price Weekly closing). Strength in the US dollar and continued weakness in internal combustion engine vehicle production exerted pressure on palladium. The market also reacted to rising inventories and lackluster industrial demand. While some support came from supply risks in Russia and South Africa, it was not enough to offset bearish sentiment. 

Palladium saw a marginal recovery in Q2 2024, with prices inching up by 0.21% to $983 per ounce (Spot Price Weekly closing). The slight rebound was supported by modest restocking by industrial users and speculative short-covering. However, demand remained subdued, and oversupply concerns persisted. Uncertainty in the global auto market, combined with increased competition from platinum as a substitute, limited palladium’s upside potential. 

In Q1 2024, palladium prices declined sharply by 10.50%, falling to $981 per ounce (Spot Price Weekly Closing). This drop was driven by reduced demand from the automotive sector amid a gradual transition toward electric vehicles (EVs), which rely less on palladium-based catalytic converters.

Weak industrial activity and a sluggish Chinese economy also weighed on sentiment. Additionally, increased recycling rates and inventory liquidation added to the supply glut, amplifying downward pressure on prices. 

Technical Specifications of Palladium Price Trends

Product Description:

Palladium (XPD/USD) is a precious metal primarily used in industrial applications, notably in automotive catalytic converters due to its superior emissions-control properties. Traded on global exchanges, palladium also serves as a store of value and inflation hedge in times of economic instability.

Identifiers and Classification:

  • HS Code: 711021


Palladium Synonyms:

  • Palladium metal
  • Palladium sponge


Palladium Grades Specific Price Assessment:

  • Purity: 99.95%


Palladium Global Trade and Shipment Terms

  • Quotation Terms (Product & Country Specific): 1–5 oz
  • Packaging Type (Product & Country Specific): Vacuum-sealed plastic


Incoterms Reference in Palladium Reporting

Shipping Term  Location  Definition 
Weekly Spot Price   Global  Palladium Spot Price (XPD/USD) 

*Quotation Terms refers to the quantity range specified for the Palladium being quoted or offered in a commercial transaction.

**Packaging Type refers to standard packaging size commonly used for Palladium packing, ease of handling, transportation, and storage in industrial and commercial applications.


Key Palladium Manufacturers

Manufacturer 
Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) 
Anglo American Platinum 
SibanyeStillwater 
Jinchuan Group 
Northam Platinum 

Palladium Industrial Applications

Palladium-market-share-end-use

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Palladium prices

  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022): 
    As Russia accounts for over 40% of global palladium production, the conflict caused severe supply concerns, pushing prices to record highs in early 2022. Geopolitical risk, coupled with fears of trade sanctions and logistical bottlenecks, emphasized palladium’s strategic importance in industrial applications. 
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–2021): 
    Pandemic-induced factory shutdowns and supply chain disruptions triggered sharp volatility in palladium markets. While demand dipped in early 2020, a surge in automotive production and stricter emission norms led to a rapid rebound. Supply issues, especially from key producers like Russia and South Africa, drove price spikes. 
  • Global Financial Crisis (2008–2009): 
    Palladium prices initially fell due to demand contraction and market uncertainty, but rebounded as stimulus efforts and auto industry recovery (a major palladium consumer) gained momentum. The crisis highlighted palladium’s dependence on industrial demand, particularly in catalytic converters. 

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global palladium price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the palladium market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence palladium prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely palladium market data.

Track PriceWatch's palladium price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: Aggregated from major commodity exchanges (NYMEX, LME), industry bulletins, and proprietary trading databases.
  • Market Intelligence: Inputs from PGM traders, auto manufacturers, mining firms, and institutional analysts.
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: Ongoing analysis of mine output, refining activities, and logistics across top producers (Russia, South Africa, Canada). 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Factors: Evaluation of sanctions, mining policy shifts, and conflict risks, especially in major producing countries.  
  • Macroeconomic Trends: Analysis of auto industry cycles, emission regulations, interest rates, and currency fluctuations. 

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Mining and Refining: Tracking output from Norilsk Nickel (Russia), Impala Platinum (South Africa), and other top producers. Labor strikes, power shortages, or sanctions are key supply-side triggers. 

Demand Forecasting

  • Industrial Demand: Predominantly used in gasoline vehicle catalytic converters. Also tracked: hydrogen fuel cell tech and electronics.
  • Investment & Substitution Trends: Monitored ETF flows, physical holdings, and emerging substitution by platinum and rhodium in auto manufacturing. 

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: We use econometric tools factoring in industrial trends, geopolitical risk scores, currency strength, and historical volatility.
  • Scenario Analysis: Includes demand surges (e.g., stricter emissions laws), supply shocks (e.g., mine closures), and macroeconomic swings to model a full range of price trajectories. 

Reporting and Client Support

  • Detailed Reports: Weekly and monthly reports include mine-level analysis, demand trend reviews, regulatory updates, and macro-driven price projections.
  • Expert Consultations: Our analysts offer 1-on-1 briefings and strategy development tailored to investment, industrial procurement, or risk management needs.

 

Palladium Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for palladium. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

• Industrial Demand: Primarily from the automotive sector for catalytic converters in gasoline engines.
• Supply Constraints: Heavy reliance on a few countries (notably Russia and South Africa) makes palladium vulnerable to mining disruptions and geopolitical instability.
• Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, sanctions, and labor unrest can disrupt global palladium supply.
• Environmental Regulations: Stricter emission standards boost demand for palladium-based technologies.

• Palladium is a key component in catalytic converters, which reduce harmful emissions in internal combustion engines. Demand rises with stricter global emissions standards, especially in gasoline-dominated markets like the U.S. and China.

• PriceWatch provides real-time market data, pricing insights, historical trends, and expert commentary through weekly and monthly reports, helping users make informed investment and procurement decisions.

Access Real-Time Palladium Price Trends