phenol Pricing Assessment

Markets Covered:

Australia

Belgium

Brazil

Canada

China

Finland

Germany

India

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Mexico

Netherlands

Singapore

Korea

Thailand

United States

Phenol Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast

In Q1 2024, the global Phenol market experienced varied trends across key regions, driven by different factors. In the APAC region, specifically South Korea, Phenol prices were reported at $965/MT, reflecting a decrease of 11.55% from the previous quarter. This downward trend was influenced by weak demand from sectors like Automotive and Electronics, which typically consume large quantities of Phenol for Plastics and Resins. Supply chain challenges and lower feedstock costs also contributed to this price dip. Meanwhile, in the USA, Thailand, and Singapore, the Phenol market remained steady, with moderate demand from the Construction and Packaging sectors helping stabilize prices.

In Q2 2024, the downward trend in South Korea continued, with Phenol prices slipping to $955/MT, representing a slight decline of 1.07% from Q1. This was primarily due to continued softness in the demand from downstream industries like Automotive, coupled with ongoing supply chain disruptions and a global abundant supply of Phenol. Additionally, increased production capacities in Thailand and Singapore contributed to a more competitive market, further pressuring prices. In North America, however, demand from the Medical and Consumer Goods sectors helped prevent significant price drops, while European markets saw moderate fluctuations due to supply issues and regulatory challenges.

By early Q3 2024, Phenol prices in South Korea had rebounded slightly, reaching $983/MT in July, marking a 2.40% increase from June. This price uptick was supported by a resurgence in demand from the Automotive and Electronics industries, particularly as global economic conditions improved, and consumer demand picked up. Furthermore, the global market saw tightness in supply due to maintenance shutdowns in major producing regions, combined with rising crude oil prices, which affected the cost of Phenol production. Freight rates remained high, particularly in the APAC region, adding to the upward pressure on prices.

Looking ahead to Q4 2024, the global Phenol market is expected to remain tight, with prices likely to rise due to increased demand from the Packaging and Construction sectors as the festive season approaches. Additionally, rising feedstock costs, particularly for benzene, which is crucial for Phenol production, could further strain supply. Environmental regulations imposing stricter emissions controls on chemical production in key regions like the USA and South Korea may also contribute to higher production costs and reduced output. Rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to play a role in shaping market behavior, potentially causing price volatility. The Phenol market may continue to face upward pressure as global economies recover and demand surges across various sectors.

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Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in phenol prices

Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022-Present): The conflict led to disruptions in energy supplies and feedstock availability, particularly in Europe, resulting in increased Phenol production costs and global price volatility.

COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): Initially, the pandemic caused a steep drop in demand for Phenol as industries like automotive and construction slowed. However, demand rebounded as the need for packaging materials, disinfectants, and medical equipment surged.

US-China Trade Wars (2018-2019): Geopolitical tensions disrupted global supply chains, increasing uncertainty in the Phenol market and causing price fluctuations due to tariffs and reduced exports.

Global Crude Oil Price Volatility (2015-2022): Fluctuating oil prices during this period had a direct impact on Phenol production costs, causing price variations due to the dependency on petroleum-based feedstocks.

These events highlight the Phenol market’s sensitivity to global disruptions, especially related to energy and supply chain dynamics. Constant monitoring of these factors is crucial for anticipating price movements.

Methodology and Specifications

Price-Watch phenol Pricing Assessment Research Methodology

Data Collection and Sources

Real-Time Market Data: Price-Watch aggregates real-time pricing data from a wide range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This approach ensures that our Phenol pricing assessments reflect the most up-to-date market conditions.

On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including Phenol producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users across major production hubs. This localized intelligence is essential for understanding specific market dynamics.

Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire Phenol supply chain, from the availability of raw materials such as benzene and propylene, to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics.

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: Price-Watch closely monitors global geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade disputes, which have the potential to disrupt Phenol production and supply chains. Our analysis evaluates both immediate and long-term effects on Phenol prices.

Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes, storms, and industrial accidents, particularly in regions like the U.S. Gulf Coast, where Phenol production is concentrated. These events are factored into our pricing forecasts and supply outlooks.

Economic Shifts: Price-Watch analyzes macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand from industries like automotive, construction, and consumer goods, to predict shifts in Phenol demand and price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a detailed database of global Phenol production facilities, tracking their operational status, planned maintenance, and output levels. This helps us assess current supply availability and any potential disruptions.

Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes forecasts of upcoming Phenol production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This allows us to predict future supply trends and potential price shifts.

Demand Forecasting

Sectoral Demand Analysis: Price-Watch provides comprehensive analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including automotive, construction, and chemical manufacturing. We track year-over-year demand growth and forecast future consumption patterns using economic indicators and industry trends.
Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and their impact on global Phenol pricing. This includes understanding shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations affecting supply and demand.

Pricing Model Development

Dynamic Pricing Models: Price-Watch uses advanced econometric models to forecast Phenol prices. These models incorporate real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions, and are continuously refined for accuracy and predictive power.

Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based evaluations to assess potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for various market outcomes.

Reporting and Client Support

Comprehensive Reports: Clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to provide actionable insights and clear recommendations.

Ongoing Support: Price-Watch offers continuous updates and personalized support, ensuring that clients have access to the most current information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice.

This research methodology ensures that Price-Watch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable Phenol pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make well-informed business decisions.

Specifications

Molecular Weight[g/mol]

94.11

CAS No

108-95-2

HS Code

2907

Molecular Formula

C₆H₆O

phenol

Phenol is a versatile organic compound, widely used as a precursor in the production of plastics, resins, and adhesives. It serves as a key raw material in the manufacture of BisPhenol A, caprolactam, and other industrial chemicals. Phenol is also employed in pharmaceuticals, disinfectants, and dyes due to its antiseptic properties. Known for its strong aromatic odor, it is primarily derived from petroleum feedstocks like benzene.

Packaging Type

Tanker (Domestic), Drum (200 Kgs) (Import-Export-Domestic)

Grades Covered

Industrial Grade (99.5%)

Incoterms Used

FD Antwerp, FD Hamburg, FD Helsinki, FOB Houston, FOB Busan, FOB Map Ta Phut, Ex-Mumbai, Ex-Kandla, CIF Santos (USA), CIF Manzanillo (USA), CIF Montreal (USA), CIF Rotterdam (USA), FOB Port of Singapore, CIF Port Klang (Singapore), CIF Jakarta (Singapore), CIF Yokohama (South Korea), CIF Melbourne (South Korea), CIF Nhava Sheva (Thailand)

Synonym

Carbolic Acid, Hydroxybenzene, Phenic Acid, Benzenol.

Price-Watch Quotation Terms:

10-15 MT, 15-20 MT, 25-30 MT

Ex-Location: This incoterm refers to a shipping agreement where the seller makes the goods available at their premises, and the buyer is responsible for all transportation costs, including shipping, insurance, and any other fees.
CIF: CIF refers to the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) terms for goods. Under CIF terms, the seller is responsible for the cost of goods, insurance, and freight charges until the goods reach the port of destination.
FD: FD stands for Free Delivered where the seller takes full responsibility for delivering goods to the location/port. This ensures the buyer receives the goods at the designated port with all necessary costs, except import duties, covered.
FOB: FOB refers to the Free On-Board shipping term, where the seller is responsible for the cost and risk of delivering the goods to the port. Once the goods are on board the vessel, the responsibility shifts to the buyer for all costs, including shipping and insurance.

Property	Specifications
Appearance (Molten State)	Clear water white liquid
Appearance (Solid State)	White crystalline mass
Color, APHA (Molten)	20 Max.
Purity, Wt. %	99.6 Min.
Water, Wt. %	0.03 Max. (at loading) 0.1 Max. (at receipt)
Solidification Point, ºC	40.6 Min.

Applications

Phenol is primarily used as a key raw material to produce various chemicals, including BisPhenol A (used in plastics), Caprolactam (for nylon production), and Phenolic resins (found in adhesives and coatings). It is also used to make pharmaceuticals, disinfectants, and herbicides. Phenol plays an important role in industries like automotive, construction, and healthcare due to its versatility and wide range of applications.

Disclaimer

Phenol price provided by Price-Watch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for phenol. Price-Watch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

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Frequently asked questions

What key factors affect phenol prices in the global market? +

The pricing of phenol is influenced by several key factors, including the cost of feedstocks such as benzene and propylene, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and demand from downstream industries like plastics, resins, and pharmaceuticals. Environmental regulations and production capacity constraints can also impact availability and pricing. Additionally, geopolitical events and supply chain disruptions may lead to price volatility, making it crucial for procurement heads to stay informed about market trends and developments.

How do changes in raw material costs impact phenol pricing? +

Raw material costs, particularly for benzene, play a significant role in determining phenol prices. When the prices of benzene and propylene rise due to increased demand or supply chain issues, phenol prices typically follow suit. Conversely, if raw material costs decrease or if there is an oversupply, phenol prices may decline. Procurement teams should closely monitor raw material markets and establish strong supplier relationships to negotiate better pricing and ensure stable supply.

What are the regional variations in phenol pricing, and how can they affect procurement strategies? +

Phenol prices can vary by region due to differences in raw material availability, production capabilities, and local demand conditions. For example, regions with robust petrochemical industries, like North America and Asia, may have different pricing structures compared to Europe, where regulations can increase production costs. Understanding these regional variations enables procurement heads to optimize sourcing strategies by identifying cost-effective suppliers and potentially leveraging lower-priced markets to improve overall procurement efficiency.

What is the future price outlook for phenol, and how should procurement heads prepare? +

The future pricing of phenol is likely to be influenced by ongoing trends in raw material costs, regulatory changes, and global economic conditions. Procurement heads should anticipate fluctuations caused by changes in crude oil prices, shifts in demand from key industries, and sustainability initiatives affecting production methods. To prepare, procurement teams should actively monitor market reports, consider securing long-term contracts with suppliers, and diversify their sourcing strategies to mitigate risks associated with sudden price increases.