In Q1 2024, European PET prices saw significant upward momentum, especially in the Netherlands with a 7% increase. The rise was fuelled by high demand from the construction industry and strong economic growth, boosting market confidence. Production costs also surged due to elevated prices for feedstocks like Ethylene Glycol and Terephthalic Acid, linked to Crude Oil increases. Compounding this, Alpek Polyester UK Ltd. declared force majeure in February following a technical breakdown at its 220,000-tonne Wilton plant, exacerbated by raw material shortages from a Red Sea shipping crisis, impacting supply and further driving prices.
In Q2 2024, the global PET market continued to rise, with a 2% price increase in Germany. This growth was driven by higher demand from the packaging industry due to the favorable summer season and escalating production costs tied to feedstock prices, including Ethylene Glycol and Terephthalic Acid. A shortage of Mono Ethylene Glycol, worsened by climate-related shutdowns and reduced operational capacities, further constrained supply. This shortage, along with crude oil price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions, led key players like Indorama Ventures and MEGlobal to adjust prices upward.
At the beginning of Q3 2024, PET prices showed an upward trend, with a 4.5% month-over-month increase. This rise was primarily driven by supply constraints caused by reduced import volumes and lower domestic production. The ongoing Red Sea crisis further aggravated supply chain disruptions, forcing vessels to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This rerouting created congestion at alternative routes and key transshipment hubs critical to trade between Asia and Europe, as reported by major market participants. These logistical disruptions significantly impacted global supply chains, intensifying supply shortages in the European PET market. However, in early August, freight rates began to normalize, which could influence PET prices in the following months. By the end of the first month of Q3 2024, PET prices in Hamburg, on a free-delivery (FD) basis, hovered around USD 1312/MT.
Looking ahead to Q4 2024, PET prices may experience a decline following the Q3 increase. This anticipated decrease could result from reduced demand with the arrival of winter in some regions and the stabilization of previously elevated freight rates due to the Red Sea crisis and port congestion. Demand from the packaging industry typically softens in colder areas, while it may remain steady in warmer regions. Additionally, PET demand for agricultural films is expected to fall, except in regions with winter crop cycles or continuous agricultural activity.