In Q1 2024, the global Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) market experienced mixed trends due to rising feedstock Ethylene and Chlorine prices and strong demand from key sectors like construction and electrical. As the prices PVC were increased in China, USA, and Japan whereas in Taiwan the prices experienced a bearish trend. China saw a 0.7% increase, while both the USA and Japan markets rose by 7.5%, the major reason for price was higher raw material costs and supply chain disruptions. However, in Taiwan the price trend was reduced by approximately 9.5% due to the reduced demand from the downstream construction industry owing to festivals like Lunar New Year which hampered the demand of product. While the supply of the product in the country was high. Moreover, the poor cost support from the feedstock Ethylene and Chlorine prices helped to ease production cost and supported the price trend of the product.
In Q2 of 2024, PVC market prices rose in China, Japan, the USA, and Taiwan due to several factors. Heightened seasonal demand in construction and manufacturing, coupled with rising feedstock costs for Ethylene and Chlorine, contributed significantly. Additionally, improved downstream demand, supply constraints from the disruptions and environmental regulations, and speculative buying influenced prices increased. These combined elements exerted upward pressure on PVC prices during that period, reflecting the complex dynamics of the global PVC market.
By early Q3 2024, the Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) market experienced a bullish trend in USA, China and Japan, for USA the prices were around 798 USD/MT in FOB Houston. This increase was driven by tight global supply, rising raw material costs, and strong domestic demand, especially in construction. Production disruptions in the USA and reduced exports from China fueled price hikes. In contrast, Taiwan saw a decrease to 748 USD/MT FOB Kaohsiung due to declining seasonal demand and increased supply.
It is anticipated that in Q4 2024, the price of PVC may decrease in the global market. This expected decline can be attributed to lower demand associated with the arrival of the winter season, which typically leads to a slowdown in construction activities. As a result, the reduced need for PVC may significantly impact pricing. Additionally, the destocking activities that commonly occur at the end of the year could further influence the price trend, potentially resulting in a bearish outlook for the PVC market during this period.