In the first half of 2024, global supply faced constraints due to economic challenges in China. Trade-war between USA and China. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have strained trade routes near the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, tightening the market by disrupting naphtha supplies. This disruption has led to rising ethylene prices, a key feedstock for Propionic Acid production, further contributing to market volatility.
In Q1, prices for Propionic Acid in the North American region rose by 10% due to several factors, demand from the food industry in January 2024 and February 2024 witnessed a significant increase while surging feedstock ethylene prices, driven by global plant shutdowns, led to a scarcity of Propionic Acid. A winter storm disrupted power supplies and production further. Export challenges, including redirected shipping routes, increased costs and delays, alongside geopolitical tensions, affected market sentiment. These fluctuations in North American prices also resulted in higher costs in South America, while the Asia Pacific region saw a 5% decrease due to low demand from the food and beverage sector and security issues at Red Sea.
In Q2, the USA market retraced its trajectory, falling by 11% amid stabilization in ethylene-feedstock prices. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict became a new norm, prompting states to take measures to protect their cargo from Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea. Speculations about potential anti-dumping duties that China might impose on US Propionic Acid also dampened market sentiment, leading to decreased demand for US Propionic Acid while supporting Chinese products. In contrast, the Asia Pacific region experienced a rebound, with prices rising by 6.5% in Q2 compared to the previous quarter, driven by renewed demand from the food and beverage sector.
In Q3, prices for Propionic Acid in North America are set to stabilize, despite the impact of anti-dumping duties affecting demand in China. Increased demand from the food and beverage sector will offset this impact, leading to a projected 2% rise in USA prices as seen in August. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to maintain its momentum, with prices increasing by 1.5% in August. This growth is be driven by protectionist policies from China, the region’s largest supplier, which holds a significant market share.
In Q4, Propionic Acid prices may experience a decline as crude oil prices are speculated to drop from the current $82.39 per barrel to around $70 per barrel. This potential decrease in crude prices could negatively impact ethylene prices, a key feedstock for Propionic Acid production, leading to lower prices for the acid itself. Market dynamics may shift as these changes unfold, influencing overall demand and supply conditions.