In Q1 2024, the US R-HDPE market experienced a bearish trend, with prices for Recycled High-Density Polyethylene (R-HDPE) Light Pellets dropping by approximately 6.5%. This decline was attributed to weaker demand from key downstream industries such as film, textiles, and bottle manufacturing. Market participants adopted a cautious approach, with subdued trading activity in the spot market reflecting uncertainties in consumption patterns. Ample global supply amid low demand further reinforced the downward price trend during this period.
In Q2 2024, the R-HDPE market witnessed a price increase of approximately 7% in North America, driven by heightened demand from the packaging industry. This surge was bolstered by the seasonal uptick in consumer goods and packaging requirements during the summer months. Concurrently, Germany’s R-HDPE market experienced rising prices due to a combination of supply constraints, elevated production costs, and strong demand across various sectors. Additionally, increased freight rates caused by the Red Sea crisis further impacted global R-HDPE prices, supporting the upward trend.
By the start of Q3 2024, R-HDPE prices continued to rise, driven by increased demand from construction and agriculture industries, which ramped up activities during this season. Fluctuations in the availability of post-consumer HDPE waste, influenced by collection efficiencies and recycling rates, also played a role in price movements. Furthermore, changes in crude oil prices affected the cost of virgin HDPE, indirectly impacting R-HDPE competitiveness. Global trade dynamics, including import/export regulations, transportation costs, and energy prices for recycling operations, added to the upward momentum in prices.
Looking ahead to Q4 2024, the R-HDPE market is anticipated to see a decline in prices following two consecutive quarters of increases. Cooler weather in many regions is expected to soften demand, particularly from the packaging sector. Additionally, the stabilization of freight rates after disruptions caused by the Red Sea crisis and port congestion is likely to reduce cost pressures. Demand for agricultural films made from R-HDPE is also expected to decline, except in regions with winter crop cycles or continuous agricultural activities. These factors are expected to lead to a seasonal adjustment, resulting in a potential price dip.