The latest Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have added another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile Middle East energy market. On September 8, the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran, while claiming Aramco facilities were among the targets.
Saudi authorities confirmed fires at energy sites and said operations at some facilities were halted while damage was assessed. Jazan is especially important because Aramco’s refinery there has a processing capacity of 400,000 barrels per day.
Saudi Attacks Add a New Layer to the Oil-Supply Risk
The timing is critical. The attacks come while the United States and Iran remain locked in a wider confrontation and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is under pressure.
Oil markets have reacted quickly, with Brent moving above $99 per barrel, close to the psychologically important $100 level. Market expectations are also shifting higher because prolonged disruption to Gulf shipping or further attacks on energy infrastructure could tighten physical supply.
Against this backdrop, President Donald Trump has argued that oil prices will “drop precipitously” once the United States wins the conflict with Iran. That creates a sharp contrast between Washington’s political message and the market’s immediate response.
Oil Markets Face a Clash Between Political and Market Expectations
Trump is effectively arguing that military success will eventually remove geopolitical risk and restore lower energy prices. Oil traders, however, are currently pricing the opposite short-term effect: every additional attack on tankers, refineries, pipelines or shipping routes increases the risk premium attached to crude.
This tension will form an important backdrop to the BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi on September 12–13.
For India and China, the priority is likely to be uninterrupted Middle Eastern energy flows and lower crude prices, as both remain major oil importers. Russia, by contrast, can benefit financially from higher oil prices, while Iran is itself a BRICS member and will seek diplomatic space amid its confrontation with Washington.
The UAE will have its own concerns about the security of Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping.
India Faces the Most Direct Economic Pressure
For India, the challenge is particularly sensitive. Higher crude prices can increase the country’s import bill, pressure the rupee and raise transportation, refining and petrochemical costs.
New Delhi is therefore unlikely to want BRICS to become simply an anti-U.S. platform. Instead, India can use the summit to push for de-escalation, protection of energy infrastructure, freedom of navigation and more resilient energy supply chains.
The Saudi attacks have therefore widened the debate beyond Iran and Hormuz. The central question for BRICS is now whether a multipolar grouping with very different strategic interests can still produce a common response when energy security for the Global South is under direct threat.
Crude Oil Market Outlook
The near-term outlook remains highly sensitive to developments across Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Brent’s move toward $100 per barrel shows how quickly geopolitical risk can be reflected in crude pricing, but whether prices remain at elevated levels will depend on the duration and scale of any disruption.
For BRICS, the challenge is therefore larger than the immediate question of oil prices. The Saudi attacks have widened the debate beyond Iran and Hormuz and placed energy-security resilience at the centre of the summit agenda.
The central question is whether a multipolar grouping with very different strategic interests can produce a meaningful common response when energy security for the Global South is under direct threat.
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