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Glycerine Price Trend and Forecast

UNSPC code: 51241869
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âźł Weekly Update
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Historical Data Since 2015
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Forecast for 2026

glycerine Price Trends by Country

cnChina
inIndia
idIndonesia
jpJapan
myMalaysia
nlNetherlands
aeUnited Arab Emirates
usUnited States

Global glycerine Spot Market Prices, Trend Analysis and Forecast

In Q2 2025, the Glycerine price trend faced sustained downward pressure as biodiesel production slowdowns across Southeast Asia significantly increased regional supply. Weaker Chinese demand for downstream epichlorohydrin and competitive Indian imports further eroded market sentiment creating a prolonged oversupply situation.

Although pre-monsoon stocking in South Asia briefly absorbed some volumes, it was insufficient to reverse the bearish trend. Late in the quarter, operational disruptions at two major Indonesian biodiesel plants triggered a sudden tightening of availability sparking a short-lived recovery in early July. Track real time fatty acid price analysis.

The quarter underscored the market’s inherent volatility driven by biodiesel production dynamics, regional demand shifts and logistical imbalances. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine crude (80%) in Indonesia closed Q2 2025 at USD 440 per metric ton FOB Jakarta.

Glycerine Price Trend Analysis: Q2 2025

In Q2 2025, the Glycerine market faced sustained downward pressure as biodiesel production slowdowns across Southeast Asia significantly increased regional supply. Weaker Chinese demand for downstream epichlorohydrin and competitive Indian imports further eroded market sentiment, creating a prolonged oversupply situation. Although pre-monsoon stocking in South Asia briefly absorbed some volumes, it was insufficient to reverse the bearish trend.

Late in the quarter, operational disruptions at two major Indonesian biodiesel plants triggered a sudden tightening of availability, sparking a short-lived recovery in early July. The quarter underscored the market’s inherent volatility, driven by biodiesel production dynamics, regional demand shifts, and logistical imbalances. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine crude (80%) in Indonesia closed Q2 2025 at USD 440 per metric ton FOB Jakarta. 

In Q2 2025, the Glycerine market experienced a 6.8% quarter-on-quarter correction amid improved biodiesel-derived supply flows from Southeast Asia and subdued Indian demand during the monsoon season. The market witnessed volatile trading as prices softened in June reflecting reduced downstream activity in pharmaceuticals and personal care sectors.

However, production cuts at select Indonesian biodiesel plants and a modest rebound in oleochemical demand towards quarter-end helped prevent steeper declines. Policy shifts in Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate and seasonal demand fluctuations in India remained key market drivers. According to PriceWatch, by the end of the quarter, Glycerine Crude (80%) was assessed at USD 485 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva. 

 

In Q1 2025, Glycerine prices rallied strongly amid tight biodiesel-derived supply during Indonesia’s seasonal palm oil production low. Robust demand from pharmaceutical applications, particularly in India and the Middle East, provided further upward momentum as hygiene-related consumption remained firm. Export demand from Middle Eastern buyers seeking cost-effective raw materials added support to an already tight market.

However, towards the quarter’s close, early signs of correction emerged as Chinese buyers resisted higher offers, leading to modest inventory rebuilding across regional hubs. While sentiment remained cautiously firm, traders noted a potential ceiling to price gains if supply normalized in Q2. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) ended Q1 2025 at USD 474 per metric ton FOB Jakarta. 

In Q1 2025, Glycerine prices surged sharply on the back of extreme tightness in biodiesel byproduct availability. Indonesian production constraints combined with stronger Chinese oleochemical demand created unprecedented supply shortages, driving prices to multi-year highs. Indian buyers accelerated pre-monsoon stockpiling in pharmaceutical and personal care applications, further tightening the market.

The rally gained momentum through March, but late-quarter resistance emerged as downstream consumers began reducing offtake at elevated levels signaling potential demand erosion in key applications. Supply chain pressures, however, remained the dominant market theme. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) closed Q1 2025 at USD 521 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva. 

 

Glycerine Price Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

Q4 2024 witnessed moderate price gains for Glycerine as sustained biodiesel production cuts in Indonesia restricted output, while winter stockpiling activity provided steady demand support. Indian pharmaceutical buyers were active throughout the quarter, driving localized tightness in Southeast Asian markets. Prices saw a gradual rise, breaking through levels not seen since 2022, though the rally was tempered by competitive availability of synthetic glycerine in key export destinations.

Despite stronger seasonal demand, the market maintained a fragile balance between constrained supply and substitution risks from cheaper alternatives. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) concluded Q4 2024 at USD 380 per metric ton FOB Jakarta. 

 

Q4 2024 witnessed sustained upward momentum in Glycerine pricing as tightening biodiesel outputs in Indonesia significantly reduced byproduct availability. Seasonal inventory rebuilding, particularly in China’s pharmaceutical sector, added further support despite a slowdown in Indian imports. Supply fundamentals remained structurally tight, with Indonesia’s biodiesel blending mandate diverting feedstock away from the glycerine stream.

Weekly gains persisted through December, underscoring robust demand despite higher costs. The market breached key resistance levels for the first time since 2022, signalling a longer-term structural deficit. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) ended Q4 2024 at USD 420 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva. 

 

In Q3 2024, Glycerine prices continued their upward trajectory as disciplined biodiesel production in Indonesia helped prevent oversupply. Demand recovery from personal care manufacturers and improved export flows to Africa and the Middle East contributed to steady weekly gains. The market gradually rebalanced after the H1 downturn, with sentiment improving amid better downstream procurement patterns.

However, global economic uncertainties and concerns over sustained consumption limited aggressive buying, keeping price movements measured. The quarter highlighted the growing importance of export diversification in absorbing regional surplus. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) ended Q3 2024 at USD 335 per metric ton FOB Jakarta. 

 

In Q3 2024, the Glycerine market staged a moderate recovery, supported by Indonesian biodiesel production issues and stronger-than-expected demand linked to India’s festive-season chemical output. After August’s brief correction, prices demonstrated unusual stability within a narrow band as supply-demand fundamentals reached a fragile balance.

The quarter also highlighted glycerine’s growing disconnection from traditional palm oil price trends, with biodiesel policy developments emerging as the primary determinant of market direction. Although overall sentiment remained cautiously firm, market participants signalled concerns about sustainability of demand at higher levels. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) closed Q3 2024 at USD 380 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva. 

Q2 2024 marked a modest recovery in Glycerine pricing as seasonal palm oil production declines curtailed biodiesel byproduct availability. Inventory restocking in Southeast Asian downstream markets offered some stability after the prolonged weakness of early 2024. However, sluggish oleochemical demand in China and competitive pricing of synthetic glycerine limited the rally’s upside.

Market participants viewed this phase as a tentative floor for pricing, though expectations of increased biodiesel production in the coming months tempered sentiment. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) closed Q2 2024 at USD 305 per metric ton FOB Jakarta. 

 

Q2 2024 marked the strongest quarterly performance since 2021 for Glycerine, with prices driven higher by soaring biodiesel production costs in Indonesia and acute supply chain disruptions. Indian buyers, facing severe import shortages, paid substantial premiums for prompt deliveries, exacerbating market tightness. Panic buying intensified ahead of anticipated monsoon-related port delays, pushing prices to their highest levels in over two years.

Despite these aggressive gains, market participants noted early signs of demand resistance as buyers sought alternatives or delayed procurement where possible. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) concluded Q2 2024 at USD 397 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva. 

 

The Glycerine market opened 2024 in a stable range, reflecting balanced inventories and muted demand across key sectors. Prices moved within narrow bands as biodiesel production cuts in Indonesia offered limited supply-side support, offset by weak consumption from China’s sluggish industrial market. The quarter provided a brief pause from the prolonged downtrend seen in 2023, allowing buyers to cautiously rebuild stocks without triggering volatility.

Despite subdued fundamentals, the stability hinted at potential rebalancing if biodiesel output trends shifted in subsequent quarters. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) ended Q1 2024 at USD 285 per metric ton FOB Jakarta. 

The Glycerine market opened 2024 on a relatively stable note, with balanced inventories and steady biodiesel production levels across Southeast Asia. Post-monsoon inventory rebuilding in India provided moderate support, while demand from pharmaceutical and personal care sectors remained cautious amid uncertain downstream outlooks.

Prices moved within a narrow range throughout the quarter, masking growing structural concerns over tightening biodiesel byproduct availability that would later fuel volatility in H2. Despite subdued sentiment, the market held firm as supply fundamentals remained steady. According to PriceWatch, Glycerine Crude (80%) closed Q1 2024 at USD 328 per metric ton CIF Nhava Sheva. 

Technical Specifications of Glycerine Price Trends

Glycerine Industrial Applications

Its primary uses involve industries like pharmaceuticals, personal care and cosmetics, food and beverage, tobacco, alkyd resin production, explosives (such as nitro-glycerine), antifreeze formulations, and the manufacturing of other chemicals. 

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Glycerine prices

El Niño & Agricultural Constraints (2024) 

Impact: El Niño-related weather events caused lower palm oil yields in Sumatra and Kalimantan. 

Policy Response: Indonesian government relaxed some biodiesel blending targets to manage tight palm oil supplies. 

Price Effect: Reduced biodiesel output led to glycerine scarcity, increasing prices in both domestic and export markets. 

Downstream Effect: Pharma, personal care, and food industries faced input cost increases, passing on price hikes to end-users. 

Volatile Feedstock Market & Palm Oil Regulation (2023) 

Impact: Volatility in crude palm oil (CPO) prices due to policy changes (export taxes, quotas). 

Lower biodiesel profitability prompted temporary production slowdowns, reducing glycerine byproduct volumes. 

Price Effect: Domestic prices increased, while export volumes decreased, especially to key markets like China and the EU. 

Global Energy and Feedstock Disruption (Russia-Ukraine Conflict, 2022) 

Impact: Rising global energy and edible oil prices (notably palm oil) due to supply chain disruptions led to costlier biodiesel and glycerine production. 

Indonesia’s Role: Palm oil export restrictions (briefly in place to protect domestic cooking oil supply) disrupted glycerine availability. 

Price Effect: Glycerine prices spiked due to feedstock uncertainty and logistic bottlenecks. 

Biodiesel Mandate Recovery (2021) 

Impact: The Indonesian government reinforced its B30 biodiesel mandate, boosting biodiesel production and, consequently, crude glycerine output. 

Price Effect: A supply increase led to a moderation in prices, although demand from personal care and food sectors remained strong. 

Export Note: Surplus glycerine was exported, stabilizing domestic prices somewhat. 

COVID-19 Pandemic (2020) 

Impact: Global demand for pharmaceutical and hygiene products surged, including glycerine used in hand sanitizers, soaps, and disinfectants. 

Indonesia’s Response: As a major glycerine producer (from palm-based biodiesel), Indonesia redirected output to meet global demand for pharma-grade glycerine. 

Price Effect: Glycerine prices spiked due to tight supply and increased demand in health sectors. 

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global glycerine price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the glycerine market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence glycerine prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely glycerine market data.

Track PriceWatch's glycerine price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch aggregates real-time pricing data from a diverse range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures that our assessments reflect the most current market conditions. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team gathers insights directly from key market participants, including producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users, across major glycerine production hubs. This ground-level intelligence is crucial for understanding localized market dynamics. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We track the entire glycerine supply chain, from raw material to production and distribution channels. This includes monitoring feedstock prices, production capacities, and transportation logistics. 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch continuously monitors global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts or trade disputes, which can significantly impact Glycerine prices. Our analysis includes potential disruptions to supply chains and their immediate and long-term effects on pricing. 
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricanes or winter storms, on Glycerine production facilities, particularly in vulnerable regions like the APAC coasts. These events are factored into our price forecasts and supply outlooks. 
  • Economic Shifts: PriceWatch evaluates macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation rates, and sector-specific demand (e.g., personal care industry, fuel additives and other crucial industries), to predict shifts in Glycerine demand and corresponding price movements.

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a comprehensive database of global glycerine production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance schedules, and output levels. This allows us to assess current supply availability accurately. 
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes detailed forecasts of upcoming glycerine production capacities, factoring in new plant constructions, expansions, and technological advancements. This helps in predicting future supply trends and potential price stabilization. 

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch provides in-depth analysis of demand trends across key sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction. We track year-on-year demand growth and project future consumption patterns based on economic indicators and industry developments. 
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our methodology considers regional demand variations and how they influence global glycerine pricing. This includes understanding the impact of shifts in manufacturing bases, trade policies, and environmental regulations. 

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch utilizes advanced econometric models to forecast glycerine prices, incorporating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are continuously refined to enhance accuracy and predictive power. 
  • Scenario Analysis: We conduct scenario-based assessments to evaluate potential future market conditions. This includes best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping our clients prepare for a range of market outcomes. 

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Our clients receive detailed reports that include current price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to be actionable, providing clear insights and recommendations. 
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized support to our clients, ensuring they have the most up-to-date information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available to discuss specific market developments and provide tailored advice. 

 

 

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers the most accurate, timely, and actionable glycerine pricing assessments, helping our clients stay ahead of market trends and make informed business decisions. 

Glycerine Market Price Trend provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for glycerine. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

Glycerine pricing is primarily influenced by feedstock prices (such as vegetable oils or biodiesel by-products), global demand (from industries like pharmaceuticals, personal care, and food), and supply availability (affected by biodiesel production levels and refinery output). To predict future trends, closely monitor these factors and consult with industry experts for market insights.

To secure favourable glycerine pricing, it is essential to adopt a strategic and well-informed approach. Staying updated on global supply-demand dynamics, biodiesel production trends, and regional pricing movements enhances negotiation leverage by providing clarity on market cost drivers and alternative sourcing options. Engaging in long-term agreements can offer price stability, reduce exposure to short-term volatility, and potentially unlock volume-based discounts. Evaluating various grades, such as crude versus refined glycerine, and diversifying sourcing regions helps optimize cost efficiency while strengthening bargaining power. Additionally, fostering reliable and transparent supplier relationships encourages greater flexibility, trust, and competitive pricing terms, creating a sustainable and mutually beneficial procurement framework.

Glycerine procurement carries inherent risks, including price volatility, quality inconsistencies, and supply interruptions. Prices often fluctuate due to shifts in biodiesel production and variations in feedstock costs, such as palm or soybean oil. Quality can also vary significantly across technical, pharmaceutical, and crude grades, leading to potential performance or compliance issues. Additionally, supply disruptions may arise from plant shutdowns, logistical delays, or geopolitical tensions, impacting availability and reliability. To mitigate these risks, companies can adopt structured strategies such as hedging and forward contracts to manage price exposure, diversifying suppliers and sourcing regions to reduce dependency on a single source, and implementing robust quality control measures, including strict testing, audits, and supplier qualification processes, to ensure consistent product specifications.

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