The global Muriate of Potash (MOP) market is undergoing a visible directional shift. Standard MOP prices are climbing on the back of strong Asian demand and tightening global supply, while the granular segment remains under seasonal pressure. The divergence between the two grades is becoming one of the defining themes of mid-2026.
Standard MOP Firms as Indonesia Sets a New Price Floor
The Indonesian market has delivered the clearest price signal of the week. A major importer awarded a 75,000t tender for standard MOP for July delivery.
Three suppliers including Belarusian Potash Company (BPC), Food Security Solutions, and Redstone were each allocated 25,000t, sourcing from Belaruskali, Uralkali, and Eurochem respectively.
Importers have flagged that potash supply is tight for third-quarter loadings. Buyers in Southeast Asia must now compete directly with China and India for available tonnes, a dynamic that is unlikely to ease in the near term.
India’s Landmark Contract Resets the Global Benchmark
India has emerged as the anchor of the global standard MOP market in 2026. Fertilizer Sales Switzerland (FSS) signed a contract with Indian Potash Limited (IPL) for 550,000 tonne at $383/tonne CFR with 180 days of credit, a $34/tonne premium over the previous Indian contract signed in June 2025 at $349/tonne CFR.
This contract, the second major Indian deal of the season following Belarusian Potash Company (BPC)’s agreement at the same price level in May, has set a firm floor for global standard MOP prices.
With two major suppliers now under contract, a fresh wave of tenders for large volumes is widely expected to follow, which will add further demand pressure to an already tight seaborne market.
Granular MOP Faces Seasonal Headwinds, But Order Books Hold
The picture for granular MOP is markedly different. Major markets including the US, and Brazil are in their seasonal lull. In Europe, granular MOP prices are holding stable but with some downward pressure emerging.
In the United States, Nutrien has launched its summer fill programme for third-quarter delivery largely unchanged from its spring offer price.
This stability underscores a key point, the potash market has largely avoided the sharp price volatility that has hit nitrogen and phosphate markets amidst the USA–Israel–Iran conflict.
Source: Price Watch™ Muriate of Potash Prices
Geopolitical Risks Cloud Logistics but Have Not Derailed Supply
Yemen’s Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli ships in the Red Sea on 8 June, raising concerns about renewed disruptions in the region. For Israel Chemicals Limited (ICL), this is unlikely to trigger a major logistical crisis.
The producer has been exporting primarily through Ashdod in the Mediterranean since Houthi attacks began in 2023.
However, ICL’s Eilat shipments to India have fallen sharply, from 762,000 tonne in 2022 to just 100,000 tonne so far in 2026, a reflection of sustained route disruption.
Freight costs on key potash corridors are also showing upward movement. Any further escalation in the Red Sea could add logistical costs that suppliers will seek to pass through to buyers.
Outlook: Supply Tightness to Persist, New Capacity Years Away
Global MOP demand is projected at 76.6mn t in 2026 against production of 76million tonne, leaving the market in a delicate balance.
New capacity totalling nearly 14.84 million tonne/yr is under development, including Broken Hill Proprietary Company (BHP)’s Jansen mine in Canada now delayed to mid-2027, and Eurochem’s Usolskiy expansion expected by 2027.
However, meaningful supply relief remains years away although a major Potash production facility at Gabon, Africa is under feasibility study by Millenial Potash that could add to the production of MOP in coming years.
Standard MOP prices will remain firm on tight global supply and strong demand. The granular segment may see limited upside given seasonal buying slowdowns, but healthy order books are providing a price floor.
With the India contract signed and Southeast Asia actively competing for third-quarter tonnes, the trajectory for standard MOP heading into Q3 2026 points firmly upward.
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